For the Roses

Update 4/27: As noted below, both Curry and Thompson are banged up with ankle injuries, and today Coach Kerr called them questionable for Sunday.  Ankle injuries can linger, especially if players play through them--Curry in particular but also Thompson can be hampered significantly by these minor injuries that affect shots, quickness, etc.  If Golden State loses this series, their failure to come out strong in game 5 of the first round will be the reason.  That meant another game, in which both of these players sustained injuries, plus it meant they lose a day to recover before the series begins.


The conventional wisdom at this point is that this year's NBA championship could very well be decided by the western conference second round match-up of Golden State and Houston.   Most experts still give the Warriors the edge but there are doubts.

That's because the Warriors seem intent on making it harder for themselves.  They blew a 31 point lead in the second game with the Clippers, while Houston won the first three against Utah, making it likely that they would get a few days extra rest.  But this past Wednesday, opportunity knocked on the Golden State door when Utah suppressed Houston long enough to win game 4 (and promptly lost game 5.)  So all the Warriors had to do was win game 5 at home, and the Houston advantage in rest would be wiped out.

So like true champions did they take advantage of every little advantage?  Not exactly.  They lost to the Clippers again at home.  Just like that, Houston regained its extra rest, even though the Warriors bested the Clips by 19 points in game 6 in LA to take the series. KD scored 50 and Draymond Green excelled on both sides. Once again Steph came out flat, ending up with 24 points.

Now the Warriors start the second round on short rest and with both Steph Curry and Thompson looking banged-up after the game--the real risk run when a team fails to close out a series.  No word immediately on whether they'll be able to start on Sunday.  The only good news for the team's health is that Draymond Green's wounded hand didn't hamper his shot tonight.

Granted that the Clippers exceeded everybody's expectations, marking them as a young team with a future.  If they get a star in the off-season they will be truly formidable.  But the Warriors showed vulnerabilities that could hurt them against Houston--lack of defense, lack of clutch scoring, and above all, lack of urgency.  It became a question of how much they want the championship, for it is clear that Houston is hungry.

This is a series than could easily go the full seven.  Some experts see Houston as weaker than last year, but then, without Cousins, so are the Dubs.  A lot could depend on how each team's bench plays.  Coaching is probably a wash, as neither side is all that good at adjusting during the game.  (The Clippers had the edge in coaching in round one.)  Momentum favors Houston, and if you count Cousins, so does health.

Did the Dubs learn enough in round one?  That KD can score 45 and Steph 25, but if they don't defend they can still lose?  They have to hope that two of their big scorers (KD, Curry, Thompson) have big nights each game, and either Draymond or Iguadala, and one or another of the bench players come through on offense, and everybody plays tenacious defense. The Dubs missed Cousin's potential scoring firepower against the Clippers, and they might miss it a lot this round.

The Warriors can defend, but Houston's defense has improved down the stretch.  On any given night Houston can score a ton of points.  It's not going to be easy for the Dubs to win this series, and if they aren't serious from the opening tip-off to the end, they could actually find themselves with a short one that has a bad outcome.

Golden State's habit of losing at home makes the old "win the first and second, win the fifth" formula obsolete, and even a 3-1 lead is no longer even a leading indicator for either team.  This is likely to be a series in which the outcome is never predictable until there is nothing left to predict, because one of the teams has won four games.