Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Last Chance for These Dubs?

 There's no shortage of candidates for the Golden State Warriors most humiliating loss of the season so far, but the blown lead against a Kevin-less New Jersey Nets to make four home losses in a row is a pretty disquieting one.  Every time it seems this team has turned the corner toward consistency, it reverts.  It is a talented team top to bottom except for one problem: it isn't winning, especially games it really should win.

We're reminded that the Boston Celtics were 25-25 around this time last year, and went on to the Finals.  So hope is not lost, but it is getting harder to come by.  Coach Kerr has preached patience, until he changed the starting lineup in something close to desperation.  And that's not really working either.

In situations like this, the next step is to change the team by exchanging players.  That may yet happen this year, but if this season continues this way, it will certainly happen next year.  The baffling thing is that this team has a championship core that is generally playing at a high level, and the young bench players are all showing flashes and more than flashes of brilliance.  After all the Dubs pulled off an unexpected road win against Cleveland with only one regular starter.  This team should work.  So far it isn't.  A month or so ago some commentator uttered the doleful words, they aren't good enough.  And yesterday Coach Kerr repeated them.  Either this team responds immediately with a string of wins, or that message gets in their heads, if it isn't there already.

The sad thing is that changing personnel on this team is unlikely to make things better next year.  With Draymond Green believing he'll be gone in a year or two, the Dubs will be in rebuilding mode if that happens.  The effect of this current pattern of at best a .500 season is the sinking feeling that this core may well have had its final championship together last year.

It happens.  It happened to the dynastic San Francisco Giants in the middle of a season--they went from best in the first half to worst in the second (when especially they couldn't hold leads) and that was the end of championship contention for that team, though fans saw flashes of brilliance for years afterwards.  

There is still time for the Warriors to get right (Kuminga's monster game against Brooklyn is the most prominent of many good signs)--but not a lot of time. If this is primarily a psych thing, it may not happen in time. But if they make a run and get deep in the playoffs, we could see this team again at least for one more year--an exciting prospect, with a year's experience for the younger players plus the vets.  If they don't, who knows?  

Meanwhile San Francisco football fans hold their breaths until Christian McCaffrey and all the running backs get clean bills of health.  The Niners would have a hard time against Philly in the championship round without a full complement of runners to generate their ground game.  

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