Suspense and Suspension

Wednesday update: Think it couldn't get worse for the Warriors on Thursday?  Three key players--Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II and J. Poole--are all listed as "questionable" for the game.  In the playoffs, "questionable" usually means they're playing hurt (or sick), but anything less than heroic performances by these three and the Dubs don't pull it off.  So it's now an even steeper mountain to climb.

Today's sentiment, reportedly within the Warriors team and organization, as well as among NBA players and media, is that Draymond's suspension is a major mistake by the NBA.  It may not turn out to be Green who loses his job because of this.

Tuesday post:

 Under Coach Kerr, the Golden State Warriors had never been down two games to none in any playoff series.  Under Coach Kerr, the Warriors have never lost a playoff series to a Western Conference opponent.  The first precedent has been broken in the current playoff series against the Sacramento Kings.  And with the suspension of Draymond Green for the next game, the second becomes more likely to be broken as well.

In the fourth quarter, when Sabonis held on to Green's foot, Green tramped down on Sabonis' chest.  Sabonis got a technical foul but Green got a flagrant 2 was ejected, and the Warriors lost. The NBA announced the suspension, with the deciding factor apparently being Green's record of "poor sportsmanship." Later the Kings announced that Sabonis had a chest contusion and was Questionable for the third game. 

The suspension decision is questionable on several grounds, including some nasty ones.  But as Draymond is so fond of saying, it is what it is.  So a couple of things are likely in game three at Golden State, in order of likelihood: first, Sabonis will play; second, the Warriors will win. 

If the Warriors don't win and lose the series, and perhaps even if they do win this game and lose the series, or even if they don't get to the finals, Draymond Green's time at Golden State might be just about up.  It doesn't take a tactical genius to figure out by now that if you provoke him even in the playoffs he will take the bait, and hurt his team.  Everyone remembers that they lost a key game and then the championship in a similar situation.  And at the time they were up 3 games to 1, not in a must-win game.  Draymond Green is a unique and a great player.  But if you add The Punch into the equation, this could be strike three.  

Truly this could be serious.  Because Draymond not only put his own job in jeopardy, but that of Bob Myers (needing a contract to continue) and ultimately Coach Kerr. This season Green seemed to play himself back into the good graces of management, and now this.

Even before the suspension was announced, media coverage turned as downbeat on the Warriors' prospects as it had previously been positive.  On their home court the young King team was unintimidated and proved resilient in crunch time, holding on for close victories in both games.  The Warriors did not get away with less than a complete game, let alone a sloppy second game.  It is the Warriors now that must play a nearly perfect game to win.

And they must continue to play at a higher level just to get out of this series.  As a series goes on, the more experienced team generally has the advantage.  But that might not be the case this time.  The Dubs have to play heroically, and/or their coaches have to find and exploit some weakness in the Kings that hasn't yet been apparent, either with game plans or lineup rotations.  And that's just to even the series at home.

It's not that the Kings have proven to be the better team.  It's just likely that the teams are more evenly matched that supposed.  It could become like the great Lakers-Kings series, which went seven games, and turned on one play in the fifth game.