Thursday, March 07, 2024

Stretch

 After another successful road trip and a 35 point victory over the Bucks at home (with the Bulls coming in on yet another back to back), the Golden State Warriors look game by game at the stretch run of the regular season: 21 more games.

At this point the schedule is potentially better but full of unknowns.  For example, the Dubs play Dallas and San Antonio three times each.  Of course it matters almost as much when you play a team as what team you play.  But right now, Minnesota and New Orleans look to be the only top tier teams they'll face.

Can they get to the sixth seed and out of the play-in?  It's possible, though Phoenix would seemingly have to drop down beyond that slot, and that team is hard to figure.  So far they've certainly been the disappointment of the West.  

But do they really want to?  Because as a six seed they'd probably draw Denver.  The great unknown of any playoff is how teams will perform against each other in a seven game series.  The Warriors' depth favors them in most cases, and Steve Kerr seems to be coaching not only to win the remaining games, but to prepare the entire roster for playing in the playoffs, and the roles they might fill.  But if a team has a decisive advantage, that depth may not help.  And right now the Denver Nuggets look like they have that kind of advantage over the Dubs. (Phoenix may actually match up better with Denver.)  So it's probably better for the Warriors not to face Denver in the first round. 

But then, lurking in the East there's the Boston Celtics.  Their 50 point beatdown of the Dubs at the end of a short but torturous East Coast trip was partly a product of those circumstances, and the absence of Wiggins.  But in general they do appear to be another team for which the Dubs don't have an answer.  Anything can happen before and during the playoffs--key injuries prominently.  But right now the Finals look foreordained: Denver v. Boston, with the Celtics likely to emerge at the end.

So it's best to enjoy the basketball ahead on this stretch run.  The victory over the Bucks was so much fun to watch, from lightning offence to incredible defense, including massive blocks by Jackson-Davis, J.K. and Draymond.  The Warriors scored 32 points in the fourth quarter, and the Bucks scored 9.  

 Though it may be a stretch to consider the Warriors as championship contenders, stranger things have happened.  Beyond team dynamics, skills, experience, match-ups and the will to win, the three elements of winning in the playoffs are health, momentum and luck.  They happen or they don't.  Still, getting there may be all the fun.

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