Starting the Long Season

 The Golden State Warriors have a hellish schedule to start the season: several back to backs, several three games in four nights, and now a dozen road games more or less in a row.

They were up to the challenge of the first two back to backs, winning four games against competitive Western Conference teams.  Coach Kerr refused to cite fatigue in their first road loss in Portland, but the fatigue was evident in Milwaukee and among the veterans in Indiana.  In Tuesday's home game they righted things against Phoenix, but now the road and Kerr's more careful load management is ahead.  

The early games showed the continuing power of the "uncles," named Steph, Draymond and Jimmy.  The big story was the improved play of Quinton Post and especially Jonathan Kuminga. The new "uncle", former Celtics star Al Horford, showed how quickly he fit in this team's offensive and defensive structures. 

 Moses Moody returned from injury to play well, Brandon Podziemski and Buddy Hield had shining moments, and rookie Pat Spencer was a eye-opening surprise.  Even the sometimes forgotten big, Trace-Jackson Davis, had a strong game against Phoenix, with the returning Gary Payton II always able to affect games.

It's a strong roster, with the injured De Anthony Melton (apparently the linchpin of last season's sizzling start) and sharpshooter Seth Curry still to come.  But it's a long season, and injuries are all but inevitable (in fact, Jimmy Butler had to leave the Phoenix game with a back problem.)  

Meanwhile, defending champs OKC and the San Antonio Spurs, with the blossoming of Wembayama as a dominant superstar, were off to a blistering start, with OKC still undefeated after 8 games. I doubt that the Warriors are even going to try to keep pace early in the season--they will likely prioritize the long run, and the health and energy of their veterans for the late season and the playoffs.

In baseball, the just concluded World Series was judged a classic.  In pure baseball terms I suppose it was, but I came to admire the Blue Jays so much that I couldn't work up much enthusiasm for Goliath winning.  Still it took the mighty wealthy and therefore mighty Dodgers seven games, including a 16 inning contest, and a 7th game that went 11 innings.  The Toronto Blue Jays gave them a run for their money.

 

Ohtani Inflation

 I'm not a Dodgers fan.  When the Pittsburgh Pirates beat them three straight games, shutting them out twice, I was elated.  I made sure to watch the replay of the last inning when Baltimore came back from several runs down to beat them in the ninth.

But there was no way to ignore the magic place they were in for the National League championship series.  Suddenly healthy and focused, with all of their expensive plans and strategies for winning postseason series working like clockwork, they were something to see.  

The Dodgers beat the Brewers, with the most regular season wins, in four games.  They did it mostly with their starting pitching.  And they needed to, because they weren't hitting so much.  In particular, their spark plug Shohei Ohtani was in a conspicuous slump, seemingly flailing away at pitches all over the place.  

That was the first three games.  Being up 3 games to none with Ohtani in a slump is saying something.  What would happen when he broke out of it?

That turned out to be the fourth game, which some are already saying was the best baseball game ever played, and Ohtani the best to ever play the game.

He was amazing.  First of all, because he was the Dodgers' starting pitcher.  Yeah, Ohtani was their fourth starter.  The Dodgers are loaded.

He walked a batter in the first, but he also struck out the side.  After his third strikeout he didn't even sit down for a second--he just exchanged equipment and got in the batter's box.  I've questioned the strategy of having him hit lead-off, but to do it when he is also pitching seemed like managerial madness.

This time it worked.  He hit a long home run and the Dodgers were up a run, and they went on from there.  Ohtani would go on to strike out 10, and give up no runs in 6 plus innings.  He would also hit two more home runs, including one to center that left Dodger stadium completely.

It was an historic performance. Ohtani has been unique in both pitching and hitting at a high level, and in this, the game Friday was a culmination.  But the best to ever play the game?  It's too soon and too easy to make that determination.

He is a hell of a pitcher, but unlike most starters, he had a lot of time off, and hasn't beat himself up pitching much over the past two seasons.  He is a hell of a hitter, and he did hit those three home runs off three different pitches by three different pitchers, to three fields.  That's extraordinarily impressive. 

But he hit all three on pitches thrown exactly into his wheelhouse, low in the strike zone.  He hit at least two of them on a 3-2 count.  And none of them were in crucial situations--there was no pressure.  Except for the first one in the first inning, the Dodgers were ahead and never really threatened (thanks largely of course to Ohtani's pitching).  All three homers came with no one on base.  

Those may be quibbles but baseball is full of subtle differences.  He may be the best contemporary player and may turn out to be the best all time.  But has he truly been tested, as others have been?  Has he repeatedly made the crucial difference?

As for the game--no, it was not the greatest ever played.  There was never any drama, and the stakes were only moderate.  The Dodgers were up 3 games to none, they could have lost this game and still easily won the series.  Compare this to say, the 7th game of the 1960 World Series in Pittsburgh, and there's really no contest.

Heroic Fever, Curry Brothers United and Other News

 

First the Indiana Fever lost their generational star Caitlin Clark to injuries, eventually ruled out for the rest of the season.  But they didn't fold.  Then they lost two starters to injuries in the same game.  But they didn't fold.  Then they lost Sophie Cunningham for the season to an injury.

And others stepped up.  Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston were already stars, but they took on more responsibilities--and Mitchell was certainly a legitimate candidate for the league MVP.  Natasha Howard, Lexie Hull and others expanded their roles.  With so many injuries, the team brought on new players midstream, with retired star Odyssey Sims a standout.

With at least five major injuries, the Fever wasn't supposed to make the playoffs.  But they did.  They weren't supposed to win the first round, but they did.  Then in the semi-finals they took the defending champion Las Vegas Aces to game 5 in the 5 game series on Tuesday night.  In the third quarter, their scoring star Kelsey Mitchell was lost for the rest of the game with a leg cramp and possibly more.

But the Fever did not fold.  In the final seconds, Odyssey Sims (who led the Fever with 27 points) hit a crucial free throw and a bucket to tie the game.  It took overtime before the Aces could defeat them.  The Fever is one heroic team.

With the heavily favored Minnesota Lynx knocked out of the playoffs, the Aces are probably the favorites now.  But next year?  With Caitlin Clark back, Sophie Cunningham back, with eye-openers like the indomitable Lexie Hull and the resurgent Odyssey Sims (if they can sign her), and with playoff seasoned Mitchell, Boston and Howard--things look very good for the Fever to be dominant.

The Golden State Valkyries are likely to be improved as well, though their historic run to the playoffs in their first year of existence ended quickly in the first round.  They start out with a ton of money, a huge fan base and the league's Coach of the Year.  

The league itself is likely to be in flux.  Coaches and players are now in open rebellion against the league leadership, especially on the issue of the officiating.  Plus players across the league will be negotiating for major upgrades in their contracts.  It's likely to be a very consequential off-season, with major changes likely.

Meanwhile, NBA pre-season camps have started.  The Golden State Warriors finally came to terms with off-season-long holdout Jonathan Kuminga, sweetening their two-year offer but retaining the team option.  During the summer it became obvious that Kuminga doesn't want to be a Warrior, and the Warriors won't want the drama.  Everyone expects the contract is a preliminary to a trade, though there will be a lot of basketball played before that's possible in January, and Coach Kerr seems committed to giving Kuminga his opportunities early in the season.

The Warriors were finally able to round out their roster.  They added veteran center Al Horford and shooting guard De Anthony Melton, re-signed Gary Payton II, and brought on the other Curry brother, sharpshooter Seth Curry.  This could be a fun team, at the very least.

Meanwhile also, the MLB playoffs have begun.  Everyone will be watching the classic Red Sox-Yankees matchup, with the Dodgers well positioned to represented the NL in the World Series.  But there's a lot of baseball before that.  The SF Giants started the second half of the season with a long losing streak, followed by a long winning streak, and alternated the two until losing out on a playoff berth in September.  The Pittsburgh Pirates were an entertaining spoiler in the last several months, but there's no predicting what the team will look like next year.

The Women of September

 The first expansion team I remember was the New York Mets.  I turned 16 the summer they started playing in 1962.  They were terrible. They went 40-120, setting the record for the worst losing season that stood for decades.  Their manager was the famous Yankee skipper, Casey Stengel.  Yogi Berra signed on as a coach.  The great Duke Snyder was on the team.  But their glory days were over. The Mets stayed terrible for most of the 60s.

What I remember most about them was not their losing but their basic incompetence.  Casey Stengel's most famous quote of the time was, "Can't anybody here play this game?"

The WNBA added an expansion team this year, the Golden State Valkyries. They were very much not terrible. They very much could play this game. Now they are the first expansion team in league history--and in many other leagues--to make the playoffs their first year of play.

This was supposed to be the year of Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever.  But Clark has been out with injuries most of the season, and the team announced she wasn't coming back this year.  Minneapolis dominated and Las Vegas has a long winning streak to end the season.  But this was the year of the Valkyries, who sold out every home game at the huge Chase Center in San Francisco, where the Golden State Warriors play.  With a roster of mostly unknowns, they've developed a style--like the Warriors, a lot of defense and a lot of three pointers.  In monetary terms they are already the most valuable franchise in the league.

As for the Fever, despite a series of devastating injuries, they've made the playoffs anyway.  They've still got at least two stars on the floor, and they are an heroically cohesive group.  Neither the Fever nor the Valkyries are expected to go very far in the upcoming playoffs, but to me they are the two teams that are the most fun to watch.

Meanwhile, the MLB teams I watch and root for, my old hometown Pittsburgh Pirates and my "new" home team the San Francisco Giants, have had some very entertaining moments the second half of the season.  

After a terrible post-All Star break losing streak that plummeted them out of contention, the Giants came alive, especially in August.  They had the longest streak of the year in consecutive games with at least one home run.  They surprised a lot of teams that thought they'd be an easy victim.

So did the Pirates, in streaks.  For example, the LA Dodgers went into Pittsburgh hoping to get well from a rough patch--playing a weaker team would be just the ticket.  Instead the Pirates beat them three games in a row, blanking them in the middle game--which was one of those pitching by committee games yet.  They had a couple of streaks like this, confounding teams actually in contention, some when they really needed the wins.

But of course by now the Pirates and the Giants have started losing again (though the Giants just won another high scoring game against Arizona.)  But they both certainly had some fun moments to watch this summer. 

Hurting (with update)

 Injuries are part of sports, they always say.  But do injuries have to be such a large part?

In professional basketball, for instance.  In the past season, the NBA was riddled with major injuries to big stars-- the players that fans come to see, the players that people who never get to an NBA game--or even to the USA--follow enthusiastically.  Now at least two teams that were in the championship hunt last year (Boston and Indiana) are drastically changed--to the point of going into rebuilding mode--because of an injury that will keep a star from playing at all next season.

This season the WNBA is experiencing an epidemic of injuries to stars and important players.  Caitlin Clark is the obvious example, but among the better known there's also Angel Reese.  Their teams played two games this season in which neither star played--and let's face it, stars the fans pay to see.

 But their teams--Indiana and Chicago--are beset with other injuries as well.  Indiana lost two key players for the season in one game.  When Chicago played Golden State recently, both teams were down four regulars each. 

Injuries are part of sports, but they don't have to be such a large part.  The culprit in the NBA appears to be scheduling: too many games too close together, especially in the playoffs.  Everyone knows this one factor was chiefly responsible for the injury to Steph Curry that killed the Warriors in the playoffs.  

In the WNBA, the most pronounced ongoing problem is officiating, and the kind of bullying on the court that leads to injury goes on unaddressed.  Nobody is happy with WNBA officiating this year, especially the players.  Caitlin Clark was getting beaten up regularly, leading to retaliation and threatening the game just when it is gaining popularity.  The Golden State Valkyries have sold out all 14 of their home games at Chase Center, where the Warriors play.  And that's an expansion team (that has a shot at the playoffs.)

Regardless of the sport, the injury of stars discourages attendance and enthusiasm, especially among the otherwise casual fan with no betting interest, that just want to see the best do their thing, and marvel.  It seems to be in the interest of the teams and the leagues to do all they can to keep those stars playing, not to mention that the numbers crunchers can look suspiciously like cretins who see players as meat and don't give them the respect they deserve. It happens in a lot of areas--the people who do the work and bring in the money get the least respect.  

When players, especially stars are hurt, the fans and the game are hurting.

Update: As the WNBA season closes in on the playoffs, the league continues to ignore problems with officiating, the loud charges of bullying and what all this is doing to the game.  All the league is doing is fining players for the least criticism of calls and officials.  But the recent season-ending injury to Sophie Cunningham of the Indiana Fever is reigniting the controversy. Though her mother and sister were quick to criticize officials, Sophie herself said in this case it was a basketball play, not targeting or semi-intentional injuring, as some observers have claimed.  But the  Fever, clearly an elite team in the making, has been hit with so many injuries that fans are bound to be both suspicious and discouraged.  

Meanwhile the NBA has announced their next season schedule, and there clearly is no attempt to respond to the danger to players of too many games too close together, or long exhausting road trips--both inviting injuries.  

This is especially true for the Golden State Warriors.  Next year the Warriors will play a mind-boggling 15 back-to-back two-game sets, including five of them in the first 17 games of the season.  They also have two road trips of at least 6 games, one of them being 8.  In sum, it's all about quick money for both leagues, and the players and fans be damned.

RIP Dave Parker, All Hail Bobby Bonilla Day

 Two Pittsburgh Pirates greats who I saw play in their prime were in the news this week.  One of them gave me a memorable baseball thrill, and the other threatened to beat me up.

Dave Parker died on June 28, less than a month before he would belatedly be inducted in the Baseball Hall of Fame.  He was a key player on the Pirates 1979 World Championship team, that won the World Series between two Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl championships, inaugurating Pittsburgh as the City of Champions.  

His accomplishments are major: National League Most Valuable Player, two batting championships, seven All Star appearances, including (if I remember correctly) an All Star MVP. He was a complete player: he hit for power as well as average, he fielded well and especially had a rocket arm, something he shared with the right fielder for the Pirates he succeeded, Roberto Clemente.

But he was not altogether a popular player in Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh has had complicated relationships with its black athletes over the years.  It seemed that for every hero they loved, there was a villain they irrationally hated.  The beloved hero in those days was Willie Stargell.  Not only was he a superstar but he was a warm, magnetic personality, with a big smile and a generous reputation.  He was loveable, especially in these mature years..  

Dave Parker was not so easily loveable.  He was younger and brash, always with something to say. He got called arrogant and ungrateful.  He was the first million dollar a year player in sports and some fans resented him for it. 

In 1980, on Willie Stargell Day, during the eighth inning of the first game of a doubleheader at Three Rivers Stadium, someone in the stands threw a 9 volt battery at him as he stood in right field, almost hitting his head. He took himself out of the game.

 I was there that day, on assignment to the New York Times Magazine for a story on the relationship of Pittsburgh's championship teams to the city, otherwise reeling from the collapse of its steel industry.  I saw him in the locker room afterwards, a sad and sobered man.

Earlier--maybe that day, maybe an earlier game--I was in the locker room before the game.  It was a notoriously raucous scene, loud and a little crazy.  Someone smashed one of the wooden stools they each had in front of their lockers, and someone else picked up the big round seat of it and threw it across the room like a discus or a frisbee.

I was trying to interview players.  I think I only succeeded getting Bill Robinson to talk to me. Dave Parker was loud and rambunctious.  He told me that he was hated, that tires on his Mercedes were slashed and similar acts, but warned me not to print this or "I'll come after you, Big Bill."  The last was an obvious insult--he was clearly much bigger than me.  

But I do recall it was after that double header when in a much softer voice he apologized.  I hadn't taken him seriously, I thought it was funny.  There was something about him--he was exuberant, not a bully--that communicated itself to me. 

About five years later he testified against a local drug dealer, admitting that he had been a cocaine user, and the conduit for coke in the Pirates locker room.  Somehow that wasn't a surprise.  The difference of his affect before the game and after it told the story.  

I still think of him as one of the most dynamic players I saw.  But when he left Pittsburgh as soon as his contract was up also wasn't surprising.  He never got his due there.

That same dynamic, of the beloved black star and the reviled black star on the Pirates, was repeated when Bobby Bonilla and Barry Bonds patrolled the outfield on a 90s team that was always in the playoffs but never quite made it to the Series.  This time it was the glowering Bonds who was the villain, and the sunny, smiling Bonilla the hero.

Just as a fan in the stands, watching Barry Bonds hit was amazing.  I recall a game when I was in the second or third deck looking down at the diamond, watching him spray six scorching hits to all fields.  But on a lucky day I got a special thrill watching Bobby Bonilla hit, entirely because of where I was sitting.

I was living and working in the city of Pittsburgh then, and on impulse I walked over to the ball park one sunny afternoon.  Since I got there after the game started, a scalper outside was desperate to sell his ticket, so I got a very good seat for a pretty good price.  I recall barely sitting down just a couple of rows behind home plate when Bonilla came up.  He was batting left handed which, when I played as a kid, was my side of the plate.  A pitch came screaming in at his head, and he dived and fell in a cloud of dust.  But the next pitch he connected for a line drive home run.  I was so close when he swung and connected, and I could follow the ball all the way to the right field stands--it was the closest I could ever come to feeling what it was like to hit a big league homer.

Bonilla was in the news because July 1 is now famously called Bobby Bonilla Day.  Years ago when he signed a contract with the New York Mets and they mutually agreed to part company, they made an unprecedented deal.  He was owed nearly $6 million.  But he made a deal--he would take exactly nothing.  Nothing at all for ten years.  But after that, he would be paid annually based on the accrued value of what they owed him, a total of over $1 million a year until 2035.  So every July 1, he gets this annuity.  

Deferred payment has since become a thing for sports contracts and contracts in other fields. Today's biggest star, Ohtani, has a deferred contract with the Dodgers--he gets a measly 1 or 2 million a year, but many years for now that balloons to something like $50 million a year. It makes sense for him--he can get all the endorsement money and other fringe benefits from his current fame, but after his playing days, he's got an assured very decent retirement income, even if grocery prices continue to go up at their present pace.

Bonilla, who was a great hitter for the Pirates and even later, is proud of that contract, not only for what it means for his family, but for the example it set and suggests--about the benefits of a guaranteed income, and security later in life.

It's Over, It's Begun

The Golden State Warriors overcame injuries to Gary Payton II and Jimmy Butler to win their first round playoff series against second seed Houston in seven games.  With one day off they went to Minneapolis and won the first game of the second round series, but in the third quarter Steph Curry sustained a hamstring injury, which kept him out of the next four games.  And essentially, that's all she wrote.

The Warriors best chance to extend the series to allow Curry to return for the sixth game was the third game, at home.  Butler had 33 points and Kuminga 30, and the Dubs were leading in the fourth quarter, but the refs decided the game by giving Draymond Green his fifth and sixth fouls in quick succession.  Without his defense the Wolves feasted at the basket.

But even if Curry hadn't gotten hurt, this series too probably would have gone seven games, and the rest that the Wolves got after overpowering the Lakers in five games, which showed up in their first game as rust, might have provided the energy to finally outlast the Dubs.  In any case, MN just got better every game.  The Warriors played well and kept every game close--they won three quarters in game 4 but they lost the third quarter badly and then the game.  Even in the Wolves biggest win in game 5 the Warriors won several stats categories, but the Wolves shot over 60%.

After the game, the Warriors coach and star players congratulated the Timberwolves, and mouthed the cliche that injuries "are part of the game."  But do they have to be as big a part as they have become?  The so-called physical play that some teams use to target opponent stars is starting to determine outcomes.  In other cases it may be hard to tell--was Jimmy Butler's injury that continued to limit him against the Wolves truly incidental and accidental?  Maybe, but maybe not.  And the brutal playoff schedule, when every game is so intense, had to play a role in Steph's injury.  

Other teams, like Boston, maybe had it worse.  But who gains by this, except team investors and owners by the number of games, though game attendance is a small part of their revenue.  But even then, the League and basketball itself does not profit when stars can't play.  And fans certainly don't profit when they are shortchanged by seeing lesser basketball than they would have.  I doubt anybody much agrees with me, but I think the NBA is going down a dark road with too many games and too little protection for players.

As it is now, health, momentum and players rising to the occasion determine playoff outcomes, and the Timberwolves are conspicuously riding high. Peaking at the right time often looks like destiny.  With vaunted OKC having trouble with Denver, the Wolves are the surprise team with the best chance at the championship.  Whoever emerges from the West is likely to win it all.

For the Warriors, the end is also the beginning of shaping next year.  Steph, Draymond and Jimmy Butler are the acknowledged core for the next two years.  As to what the Warriors front office will do this offseason, I saw one prominent story saying they will shop aggressively for players, and another that said they are likely to take a conservative approach. Jonathan Kuminga is said to be on his way out, and a player who is highly valued as the Warriors future.  I guess we'll see.  

The last thing I'll say is how wrong I was about Jimmy Butler.  He was not only the missing piece that made that late season run work, he has shown a devotion to team play and a loyalty to the Warriors, to Steph and to Coach Kerr.  Instead of a negative in the locker room he has proved to be a positive.  It was said that this is in some sense his pattern at first, but he can quickly sour on a team with disastrous results.  Still, this relationship of Butler and the Warriors looks real. 

That's one reason for optimism--the team has the entire offseason to bond more, and the entire early season to experiment without as much pressure.  If JK stays, for example, Kerr intends to play him a lot with his core starters.  Whatever happens, it became clear that Butler was the key to allow Steph to be Steph, and another season of that could be a joy forever.

Redemption, for Now

 The Golden State Warriors lost that "must-win" final game of the season to the Clippers, but it turned out not to be doomsday.  They quickly had to play a play-in game but they defeated Memphis and got their playoff spot after all.  And a few days rest.

They traveled to Houston and won their first playoff game by 10 points.  Jimmy Butler upped his scoring and Steph Curry was the miracle man again, hitting at least 3 impossible three pointers, with taller Rockets players draped all over him.

Many commentators picked the Warriors to win the series against the taller and younger Rockets because of their experienced stars and their basketball intelligence, both on the court and in the person of Coach Steve Kerr.

Coach Kerr founds his starting lineup and rotations in that Clippers game, and is emphasizing stability to start this series.  He threw in a new combination of playing both his bigs together for a few minutes but that may be only the start of his innovations.  Stable lineups helps cut down on the Warriors' biggest enemy: turnovers.  But even though personnel has changed, these teams have played each other 6 times this season.  It may be important to throw in the unexpected now and then.  One possibility that Draymond Green keeps dangling: the return of Jonathan Kuminga, who has been on the bench for the past three games.  Green hints that he may be their X factor.

Another thing in Kerr's favor is something he recognizes: that Houston plays a style unlike anyone else in the NBA today.  It is a style, he says, that reminds him of 1997.  In that year, Kerr just happened to be a member of the dominant dynasty of that era, the Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls.  He understands this style perhaps better than many other coaches in the league.

Though banged up, the Warriors started the playoffs with a fully available roster.  Gary Payton II in particular was important to their first game win, and his health is likely to remain an important factor.

So the Warriors are playing meaningful basketball and getting their chance to contend.  The Houston series is far from settled however, and the Warriors must stay focused.  They know how to beat the Rockets, but they still have to execute.  It helps to have a little luck, as they did in the first game.

The Season in One Game

The entire Golden State Warriors season comes down to the 82nd and final game.  If they defeat the Los Angeles Clippers at home on Sunday they will at worst take the last playoff spot.  If they lose they will be the top play-in team.

Often it's a matter of when you play a team, and unfortunately for the Warriors, the Clippers are the hottest team in the NBA, with a seven game winning streak.  The Clippers are healthy, and the Warriors are banged up, with Steph Curry aggravating his thumb injury in the Dubs victory in Portland.  Though in prior games this season both teams lacked key players that will play Sunday, the Clippers won all three.

The Warriors are in this precarious position partly because they lost two of their past four games--honorably to a Houston team that played a near perfect game, and shockingly to a San Antonio team lacking its best players and losing regularly.  

More than the Warriors fate will be decided in the last game of the season.  The last games will determine where five teams behind OKC and Houston land finally in the standings--which will be in the playoffs, and who will play who.  

The stakes for the Warriors are high.  They need the week's rest that comes with a 7 game playoff spot.  If they are relegated to the play-in--where in past years they did not win a single game--they have one day off.  

So the early Sunday game will be a fitting test of their playoff potential--if they can defeat a team as good as the Clippers they prove they can cause trouble and even contend.

Meanwhile in baseball, the San Francisco Giants are off to a pretty good start, stealing some thunder from the royalty of the league, the Los Angeles Dodgers, their division rival. The Dodgers are loaded for the long season, but for the moment the Giants are bringing fun baseball back to the Bay. 

Warriors For Real

 

The Steph-less Warriors lost their first two games on a crucial road trip to lesser opponents, but with Steph back they won the final four road games and their first game home.  New Orleans and San Antonio got them tuned up and they overcame the challenges of Memphis and the LA Lakers to close out the road trip 4-2.

The Lakers game was epic, maybe the most watched TV game this year, and the Dubs took it to them on their home floor.  After 52 points and 12 threes in Memphis, Steph Curry scored 37.  That victory got sports media buzzing.

But the best was yet to come.  The very next night they faced the Denver Nuggets, a team they haven't beaten in the last 7 tries.  The Nuggets had rested their starters specifically to be ready for this game, but both Steph and Jimmy Butler were listed as questionable for the Warriors.  Needless to say they both played, as did banged-up Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton who returned from the injured list for short minutes.  

Denver scored 44 points in the first quarter, most often a fatal blow, though the Dubs scored 34. Then came the second quarter, with Steph and the Nuggets star Jokic on the bench.  The Warriors went on a run and defended so ferociously that Denver scored only 16 points in the quarter, and the Dubs doubled that.  Like the Lakers game, the Warriors bench proved superior to their opponent.

The starters weren't bad either.  Brandin Podziemski scored 26, a night after scoring 27 in LA, both individual highs.  And Steph?  Just 36, with some delightfully dazzling dancing shots, playing like a demon.  So in three games Steph Curry scored a total of 125 points in three different cities, in 4 nights.  Draymond and Jimmy Butler were brilliant on both sides of the ball, others like Moody and Post hit key shots, and the Warriors maintained a lead throughout most of the second half.  

Though the Warriors moved up in the standings, they are among 6 teams bunched behind Oklahoma City and Houston (though Houston is theoretically vulnerable), all with five games to play.  Any loss in those five games could drop a team out of the playoffs and into the play-in, depending on what the other teams did.  

Which makes Sunday's game at home against Houston the latest in the most important games of the season.  Especially since Houston just beat OKC by a lot, ending their chance to reach 70 wins.  In these circumstances the injury report on every team assumes even more importance.  But no one can deny that the Warriors are playing inspired basketball now, and that Steph Curry is playing some of the best of his long career.  There were times in the past few games when he looked to be playing at a higher speed than anyone else on the court.

Counting Houston ahead, the Warriors will have played four of their potential playoff opponents in a row, and beaten 3 with one to go.  The 2025 Warriors are for real.

Warriors Worriers

 The key to this NBA season is more and more obvious: it is health.  It is the strain of all those games.  Almost every team is missing its stars at crucial moments.  Fans are being cheated of the basketball they expect.

Last time I noted that the Golden State Warriors were winning and healthy.  Almost immediately they lost Steph Curry for two games and lost them both.  Then they lost Gary Payton II, probably for the rest of the season.  Payton was having among the best stretches of games on both offense and defense of his career, but injuries have always kept him off the court most of the time.  With him the Warriors were truly formidable.  Now they have less room for error.

Their first game with Steph back in the lineup was almost as unimpressive as their two losses.  They played lowly New Orleans with its two biggest stars out of the lineup, and only one of its regular starters on the floor.  Once again--as has been their pattern on this road trip--they lost the first quarter, after vowing repeatedly to come out stronger.  The whole team including Steph had a bad shooting night.  They won because they wore down the comically depleted Pelicans.

They won on Friday but so did the Clippers and the Timberwolves, their two very close rivals for the 6th spot to get a playoff series.  And both of those teams won more impressively.  Even though they have identical records with the Clippers at the moment, the Warriors actually dropped out of sixth because the Clippers have beat them three times this season.  

So now the Warriors have less than no breathing space, and their championship caliber will be tested every game.  They've won just one of the supposedly easy games in this road trip.  They next face a depleted San Antonio, but then they play Memphis (higher in the standings but in turmoil, with their coach just inexplicably fired) and the Lakers, games they should be able to win.  The rest of their season is at home, but including three quality opponents, with away games at Phoenix and Portland.

The Clippers play the Cavs and Rockets as well as the Warriors in their last games, but Minnesota's only real challenge appears to be Denver.  So all kinds of things can happen, including Minnesota leapfrogging to fifth and Memphis falling to sixth.  All the Warriors can do is win and maybe they'll still earn that six spot, a week of rest and a guaranteed playoff series.

Meanwhile in the NFL, the Steelers have lost both quarterbacks that started last year and are unbelievably waiting on Aaron Rodgers to make up his mind.  I can't believe Pittsburgh has much patience for this.  Rodgers was an immense asshole in New York, hardly played and is now 41.  Pittsburgh and the Steelers used to have little tolerance for jerks.  They may have no good options here, this being an awkward situation, but kissing off Rodgers seems just about mandatory.

Warriors Reality Check

 The NBA season is into the home stretch.  The Golden State Warriors have just 13 games left.  The good news is that 9 of them are against weaker opponents, though several are away games.  The Dubs are on a roll, having lost only 3 of their last 18 games.  The bad news is that the teams closest to them in the standings, vying for that #6 spot that gets them into the playoffs, are also winning.  Nobody is comfortable.

In fact, the #6 seed could come down to the final game of the regular season, when the Warriors host the LA Clippers on April 13.  The Warriors are currently in the 6 position, but the Clippers are breathing down their neck, and they've been winning against quality opponents recently.

The other quality teams the Warriors will face in these final games are the Lakers (in LA), Denver and high-flying Houston.  They also have a game in Phoenix, which on any given night can be trouble.  And of course, any team is capable of winning on any given night.

Right now the Warriors are at full strength. In this they are both fortunate and exceptional.  Injuries in addition to the normal fatigue at the end of the season are plaguing a lot of teams. Staying healthy will be a huge advantage, not just to end the season but in post-season play.

Update: Spoke too soon--Steph Curry's injury has taken him out of one road game--a loss to Atlanta--and is likely to keep him out of an unknown number of others on the current crucial road trip. This potentially throws everything into doubt.

The new Warriors are learning to play with each other, Coach Kerr is finding effective combinations and lineups, and especially after they dominated the Bucks without Steph in the lineup, they are confident.  There are troubling signs as well: still turnover prone, still subject to mood swings.  But all in all, Warrior fans can look forward to some fun basketball and probably some thrills and chills even before the playoffs.

In the NFL, while the Niners appear in rebuild mode, the Pittsburgh Steelers--as of this moment--still don't have a quarterback.  It's becoming silly, as is the two dubious choices: last year's loser Russell Wilson and the aged asshole Aaron Rodgers.  If this goes on any longer they could lose both of them, which might be all for the best.  The Steelers have made some nice moves in the off season but I don't see anybody being thrilled about either of these guys, or the team as a whole, at least at the moment.

Cheated

 Not long ago Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr lambasted the NBA for not caring about the health of its players, in insisting on scheduling too many games.  For example, the Warriors' just- completed road trip included three games in four days, including a back-to-back.  They then flew 6 hours across country to play a home game the next night.  They survived this time, with victories and minor injuries. Still, they've been without Jonathan Kuminga for a month.  Other teams are not even that lucky.

Now the season enters its most dramatic phase, but NBA fans are being robbed of the matchups of great players, and teams putting their best on the court.  Fans are being cheated, so that owners and investors can rake in more money.

Philadelphia, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas are among the most conspicuous victims so far, with the Lakers now facing an unknown number of games without LeBron at this crucial time.  All these injuries have specific causes, but cumulatively they add persuasive weight to Kerr's analysis.  The League schedules too many games, and then complains when teams engage in load management for their best players.

NBA players make an enormous amount of money compared to most people, and NBA tickets price out most fans.  A lot of revenue comes from "television" but the owners insist on maximizing income from attendance at as many games as possible. In the dehumanized parlance of entertainment, the "product" suffers.  And so do the players who deal with unnecessary pain and disruption from all-too-frequent injuries.  Sadly, it seems it will take a drop in ratings if not attendance for the NBA to do the right thing and schedule fewer games.

Meanwhile, the Butler Effect is giving the Warriors quite a run, and Steph Curry continues to be liberated to be even more amazing.  Their 4-1 road trip and 9 wins out of the last 10 games has vaulted them into 6th place and a playoff spot, but teams are still bunched and at least in the past few days their closest rivals are also winning.  So the Warriors will have to keep winning just to hold onto 6th.  They could move up to 5th past the fading Rockets, but even the best case scenario within a realistic context suggests getting higher than 4th is very unlikely, and they will need help to do even that.  Still, the goal is to get into a playoff series where they like their chances.

In the NFL, lots of teams are about to make moves and a few have already shaken things up. The Pittsburgh Steelers have already acquired a top wide receiver in DK Metcalf.  Now the big question is who the hell is going to be their quarterback.  For a long while the smart money was on Russell Wilson leaving, and Justin Fields moving up to #1.  But more recently, the word is that Fields is eager to test free agency, and doesn't really trust the Steelers coaches.

So is it Wilson again?  Or will they lose them both?  Stay tuned.

 

Trade Winds in Their Sails

 In the two games played so far after the All Star break, the Golden State Warriors defeated two rivals for playoff spots, the Sacramento Kings and the Dallas Mavericks, both by double digits.  They've won three in a row for the first time in awhile, and are 5-1 since Jimmy Butler joined the team.  It's still early but a few things stand out.

First, the swagger is back.  Draymond Green used his All Star commentator status to predict the Warriors will win the NBA championship this year.

Then there are the effects that Butler's presence is having on other players. Over and over this year various other players were touted as the one who would finally unlock Brandin Podziemski's game.  He was especially ragged during the long stretch of malaise that's been most of this season so far.  Nobody quite did it--but in the Dallas game especially, Jimmy Butler looks like he's doing it.  Podz is playing with confidence and decisiveness.  He's still throwing bad passes now and then but he isn't thrown by them.  When he's cooking, the team jells. He clearly clicks with Butler. 

Butler is establishing court relationships with other players, too (he keeps finding the latest roster hire, Quinten Post, for corner 3s and dunks.) But his most important service is liberating Steph.

It's pretty clear that Butler's complete game is freeing Steph to be Steph again.  He's playing with joy again--and doing amazing things.  His blind backwards over the head half court swish in All Star practice was joined by an underhand flip from deep that also swished, drawing oohs and ahhs from the crowd in Sacramento (apparently with a lot of Dub fans there.)  Neither counted--but he's made many sweet shots that did: smooth threes, dribble penetrations and floaters, and so on.  The home crowd at the Dallas game especially saw a show, as he put up 30 in the three quarters he played.

Now the Warriors will be tested in the next few games with opponents they are supposed to dominate.  Can they bring that same activity and intensity and concentration?  These games were never gimmies for them just weeks ago.

Oh, and Jonathan Kuminga is expected to be on the court again during this stretch.  

The LA Lakers big trade also show signs of working out for them.  They look to be rising even as Phoenix is falling.  Dallas is weaker, and with Wemby out for the Spurs, they may not be a factor.  But eyes will likely be on the Lakers and the Warriors for the rest of the season. Who will move up? Can they challenge OKC or Denver?

But before all this, let's mention the All-Star weekend, more or less hosted by Steph Curry and the Warriors, culminating in Steph being named MVP of the game.  The game, the contests (Buddy Hield coming in second in the 3 point) and the time off seem to have revived the Warrior players.  So even if the game format (partly designed by Curry apparently) didn't improve things a whole lot, the weekend ends up being a win for the Warriors.

Tale of Two Upsets and New Look Warriors

I recall watching the first championship game ever officially called the Super Bowl in 1969.  It was then still a game between that season's champions of the two distinct professional football leagues, the National Football League and the American Football League.  There would be one more before the leagues merged.

The first two NFL-AFL World Championship games were won by the NFL's Green Bay Packers at the tail end of their years of total dominance under coach Vince Lombardi.  Partly because of that, and because the NFL was a much older organization, it was felt to be the stronger.  People wondered if the AFL would ever win a championship.

In Super Bowl III (as it was later titled) the NFL was represented by the powerhouse Baltimore Colts, with the already legendary quarterback Johnny Unitias, who'd led them to their second successive one-loss season.  That team also had given up the fewest points in a 14 game season in history to that point.  The AFL was represented by the New York Jets, a franchise that was only nine years old.  Quarterback Joe Namath had played professionally for just four years, all of them with the Jets.  Plagued by injuries, he had still put up impressive numbers.

But the sports wisdom of that time said the Jets were literally out of their league.  The Colts--even though quarterback Unitas was injured--were heavily favored, and even called the best football team of all time.  

I suspect even football fans born decades after this game will know what happened.  Namath's passing shredded the vaunted Colts defense, and the Colts offense (even after Unitas entered the game in the second half) was completely ineffective, with several interceptions.  The Jets won 16-7 in one of the most famous Super Bowls ever.

I suppose sports fans in the future will argue which was the greater upset, but this certainly was a precedent for what happened in this year's Super Bowl.  The Chiefs vaunted offense was utterly ineffective, especially against a ferocious pass rush.  On the other hand, they accomplished their defensive plan: they stopped Saquon Barkley and the running game, and made quarterback Jalen Hurts beat them through the air.  Unfortunately for them, he did.

Behind a dominant offensive line, Hurts supplemented pinpoint passing and effective exploitation of the aggressive run defense with timely runs (leading the team in rushing yards.)  The combination was lethal and dominant.  Two interceptions of Mahomes led to two quick touchdowns, and Philadelphia led 24-0 at halftime.

But as Tom Brady said recently, the Super Bowl is two games, because it is so long.  There is plenty of time between the halves to analyze problems and make adjustments.  The Chiefs were usually good at doing this.  But they managed only one first down in their first drive of the third quarter.  The Eagles marched back down the field and scored a field goal.  It was now 27-0.  

The next Chiefs drive stalled again, ending with a failed fourth down pass. Everyone expected the Eagles to revert to the run game and milk the clock.  Instead Hurts threw a long pass to the end zone on the first play, and in the blink of an eye the Eagles led 34-0.

The Chiefs scored a few times in the fourth quarter, though the last TD was against the Eagles second team defense with about a minute left. The Eagles had added two field goals and won easily, 40-22.  The Chiefs didn't three-peat, it was Jalen Hurt who won game MVP, and a number of other expectations were dashed.

I've seen only a little of the post-game commentary by the sports wisdoms who predicted a close game that the Chiefs always win.  Did they admit anything?  Are you kidding?  They sure turned against Mahomes, though.  

Time to trot out the actual wisdom that applies: this is why they play the game.

The Warriors

After Jimmy Butler joined the team, the Golden State Warriors played at Chicago against the young Bulls.  By the third quarter they were behind 24 points, so not much seemed to have changed.  But on the court it must have seemed to them that everything was changing. They then had the highest point differential in a quarter and a half in modern NBA history, a 49 point swing, to win the game by more than 20.  Steph had 34, Jimmy Butler 25.

They then visited the Bucks, a better team on a 7 game winning streak, though they were without their star Giannis.  Again the Warriors started slowly but built momentum and won that game handily.  Steph had a season high 38 points in his 1,000th career game, and Butler had 20.  So far, with no time to learn the offense, Butler has made a significant positive difference--probably the difference between winning and losing in his first two games.  But that's the rap on Butler--he's great at first.  So far however it's clear that the Warriors are very happy with this trade. 

Impatience

 Not nearly as consequential as the blitzkrieg in Washington the past two weeks, there was a sudden and extensive shakeup in the NBA, especially with what many called the biggest trade in NBA history: a franchise player, Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavs for the most important player on the LA Lakers not named LeBron: Anthony Davis.  Then the Sacramento Kings traded their franchise player, D'Aaron Fox to Chicago for Zack LeVine.  

The Fox trade was more or less expected since he'd made his desire for one public.  But the Luka trade came out of nowhere.  No one outside the principals had any idea negotiations were even contemplated.  Luka didn't know, and even LeBron didn't know.  

So the Golden State Warriors, cautiously exploring the trade market, got their hair blown back.  Not only did they lose out on one of their possible trade targets (LeVine) but two of their closest rivals made big moves that might have strengthened them: the Lakers (who just also added center Mark Williams from Charlotte) and the Kings, both just ahead of them in the w-l.  

Suddenly reports were flying that the Warriors were desperate to make a deal for a superstar. At first the big noise was about Lebron: maybe disgruntled at being kept in the dark and suddenly made secondary, and wary of the ball-hogging Luka, he would ask for a trade, and fulfill his stated dream to play with Steph.  The idea of them together at Golden State was far more potent than any result in the won-loss column.  They were feel-good box office to the max.

But the LeBron boom faded and then it was a trade with Phoenix to bring Kevin Durant back to the Bay--again, another boost to box office for the Warriors and the entire NBA, currently somewhat in the doldrums.  In fact a deal was underway that additionally could have sent the disgruntled Jimmy Butler from Miami to his choice of destination, namely Phoenix.

But on Monday--a day and a half before the trade deadline--Durant apparently let it be made known that he was not interested in returning to Golden State. (They also lost another potential target in Brandon Ingram, who just went from the Pelicans to the Raptors.)

 So the Warrior front office essentially lost their cool and were determined to make a big splash deal, maybe to make themselves look relevant.  They got impatient, and dealt for Jimmy Butler. (As I write this the deal hasn't quite been finalized, and some expect the Warriors to make another move before the deadline about twelve hours away.)

Now it was not more than two weeks ago that Steph Curry and Draymond Green were warning their overlords (through the media) that Butler was not going to fit the Warrior culture under Coach Steve Kerr.  By all appearances, Butler is mercurial and self-centered.  The Warriors have their hands full with one volatile star in Green himself, who may have cost them their near-term future at least three times: by successfully being baited into getting suspended in the finals they then lost to Cleveland, in possibly alienating Durant (although they appear to be friends since), and certainly in the notorious sucker punch that ended up trading away a potential scorer.

Butler is notorious for souring on teams and getting traded after a couple of years.  His stats are of a superstar but they are declining: he is 35, a year or less younger than Steph.  For him the Warriors gave up Andrew Wiggins, who is having his best year since 2022, especially recently, filling multiple needs for the Warriors--a three level scorer who can drive and get to the line, and a lock-down defender.  The Warriors deserved this resurgence, after being so patient with him last year, especially his long absences. 

They also traded away Dennis Schroder, who was supposed to be their salvation when they traded for him in December,  Kyle Anderson and young Lindy Waters III.  What did they all have in common?  They were disciplined, highly professional and dedicated to Steve Kerr and the Warriors culture.  Wiggins was such a favorite with Kerr that in his post-game, post-trade interview, he appeared utterly devastated.  

 Something isn't right with the Warriors on the court, and that had to be addressed.  But things seemed to be right in the locker room, and potentially--I would say probably--losing that could be just as fatal.

The experts so far are saying that the deal makes the Warriors better but probably not enough. I wonder if even that is true.  The Warriors want players with confidence but they don't tolerate primadonnas. Not on a team with Steph, or a team coached by Kerr. Will Butler truly commit to playing Warriors basketball?  I really doubt it.  

Super Bowl: There appears to be only one team playing this year: the Kansas City Chiefs.  Their opponents, the Washington Generals--I mean, the Philadelphia Eagles--impress Tom Brady and a few others, but nobody is betting against the Chiefs, their quarterback, their coach and their football intelligence: all they have to do is stop the run and dare the Eagles quarterback to beat them.  The Chiefs win close games--and nearly all of their games are close--and that's how they win Super Bowls.   So say them all. 

Well, maybe, but they apparently are still going to play the game.  I enjoy watching Mahomes operate but I'm going with the underdog.  Most Steelers fans probably are--not because they are in love with the other Pennsylvania team, but because--thanks to crucial injuries at the end of the 1976 season--the Steelers never won three Super Bowls in a row.  Four out of five, yes, but not three in a row.  Nobody has.  They don't want anyone else to do it.

But at this historical moment I'm also deciding my rooting preference on the news that the Chiefs' Kelce says he's "excited" that the dictator who is currently destroying more than two centuries of American government and the Constitution is attending the game.  Go Eagles.

As for the Steelers themselves, all three of their quarterbacks can be free agents, so they are reportedly trying to decide whether to keep Justin Fields or Russell Wilson.  Not a lot to choose from there.  Coach Tomlin has shown a preference for Wilson, but with him as quarterback the Steelers looked like a dispirited, rudderless team finishing the season.  There must be a lot else going on there to account for this, but it doesn't say a lot about qback leadership...  Of course, one or both (or all three) of them could jump ship on their own, which might say something else.

Patience

 Within a season of such desultory results, the Golden State Warriors and those who follow them closely seem to be watching for smaller signs of future success.  There was a flurry of optimism recently when two-way player Quinten Post got significant minutes in three consecutive games.  Although the Warriors lost two of them, Post still won praise and statistically was a net positive.

But especially in the game they won--a 20 plus point victory over the Bulls--Steph Curry and Coach Kerr were exultant.  Post's 7-foot presence is something they haven't had, but he's also capable of hitting threes (which he did consistently against Chicago.)  He "opens the floor" as they say.

His play, along with the energetic and increasingly skillful play of other young players like Gui Santos, Moses Moody and Brandon Podziemski revived by his rehab for a lingering injury, changed the conversation.  Especially since until now they weren't even in the conversation. But with the injuries to Jonathan Kuminga, Draymond Green and Kyle Anderson, and Kerr's continuing experiments with lineups and rotations, they've gotten their opportunities.

Now the Warriors at the moment don't look competitive even with their second-tier rivals like the Kings and the Lakers. Their hopes for stringing a win streak during the current homestand may be fading. They were utterly embarrassed by the Celtics, who they beat in Boston early in the season. Everything is trending towards an OKC v. Boston finals matchup.  

But it's not quite the All-Star break, and Steve Kerr is radiating a sense of confidence and patience this week--as the trade deadline gets closer.  Their won-loss record says if there are trades out there, some will be made.  Steph is a little less patient--but then he's interviewed just off the floor, especially after his frustrating shooting night against the Lakers.

 But Kerr--he doesn't seem to be constitutionally cynical enough to be talking up players to make them more attractive as trade bait, so I have to believe he sincerely believes in them.  But it's a risk.  They could all go down together.

The current enthusiasm for Post, Santos etc. follow excitement over Buddy Hield, Dennis Schroder etc. that has faded, so who knows? When Kuminga comes back, the Warriors may have the weapons they need to relieve Curry.  Andrew Wiggins has been showing his old form as well.  With Wiggins, JK, Moody and Post all capable of getting shots all over the floor, this could yet repay Kerr's faith and patience.  But...the trade deadline is still out there.

Football: Ohio State looked like an NFL team playing a Notre Dame college team--at least for the first half.  Notre Dame gave it that old college try and late in the game were in striking distance but Ohio State exploited their gambling defense for another score.  Do the Ohio State players make more money than the Notre Dame players?  I don't know, but they played like they do.

In the NFL, Washington upset Detroit last week, Buffalo out-slogged Baltimore, Philadelphia outclassed the Rams and Kansas City survived with some necessary Mahomes and Kelsey heroics.  The story this week is Kansas City, the reigning champs, who still seem to be doing just enough to win.  To become the first team to three-peat the Super Bowl, they will have to get past Buffalo. Is Buffalo as good as they looked last week, or did they overachieve?  The Chiefs still seem vulnerable, but they've got those playmakers plus that coach.  I don't see Washington beating Philadelphia, but the Buffalo v. Kansas City game could go either way.

Win It For the Draft Money

 What a lousy year for the teams I support and write about here: the Warriors, the 49ners, the Steelers, Giants, Pirates...and now everyone is saying that my sentimental favorite for the national college football championship doesn't have a chance.  Or, since it's Notre Dame, let's say they haven't got a prayer.

Ohio State is so much more talented that Notre Dame, they all say, that an 8 point spread for their defeat is pretty generous.  Notre Dame has also been hit by more significant injuries in the post-season, including several against Penn State.

No one of course knows what will happen on the day, so despite its vaunted offense and defense, Ohio State is vulnerable.  Notre Dame has the best pass defense I've seen, and they bottled up Penn State's runners pretty well.  Their offense is creative and disciplined. They run the ball well.  They are extremely well coached.

Here's the thing about Notre Dame: other teams boast of their "next man up" capability, but Notre Dame exemplifies it better than any team I know.  Just look at the drive engineered by their second string quarterback against Penn State.  

Maybe superior talent will win the day.  But the Notre Dame of legend exemplifies the intangibles.  Nobody talked about Knute Rockne's defensive schemes.  They talked about his ability to inspire.  I wouldn't put a lot of money on it understand, but I'll take the bet.  I'll take Notre Dame.

Back when Notre Dame was my mother's favorite team, possibly because it was one of the few colleges to have their games broadcast nationally (on the radio), northern and midwestern teams dominated.  And they did so for many years after that.  But over the last couple of decades it's been the southern teams.  Now it seems to be swinging back.  Why? 

Colin Cowherd suggests that southern teams prospered because they secretly paid players.  Now that paying players is legal, the big northern and midwestern teams have deeper pockets.  

Now there's something called the transfer portal and players go for the best deal they can get.  Not exactly an argument for the student athlete, or college education in general.  The college programs are just a junior version of the NFL.  This used to be called corruption.  Now it's called realism.  So maybe having a sentimental favorite is beyond silly.

As for the NFL divisional round, I don't really bet so I ignore spreads and concentrate on such details as...The winner!  And obscure items like that.

So while I sense that the Kansas City Chiefs are vulnerable this year, they are a veteran team and most importantly a veteran team at getting to the Super Bowl, and they got better late in the season, so with a couple of weeks rest--and practices for their newer players-- I don't see them losing this round.  In the other Saturday game, Washington is an exciting team but the Detroit Lions on a decent day are better on both sides of the ball.  Detroit.

The Sunday matchups are more even.  If the Texans or Commanders win on Saturday, it will be an upset.  But the Rams at Philadelphia?  The Ravens at Buffalo?  Who knows?

 Though some favor the Rams because of their great game last round, the Eagles are to me the likeliest to make it to the Super Bowl.  It may not even be close: the Eagles.

The Ravens will rise or fall on the performance of Lamar Jackson.  But the Buffalo Bills are formidable, and rarely falter in big home games.  The weather is likely to be a factor--in fact it's predicted to be so cold and snowy that it's a health hazard to attend the game let alone play in it.  So my prediction is: the weather wins.

So I'm going to end this 100% football post with my current pet peeve.  It's what we used to call showboating.  It was the lowest class thing you could do in football, showing disrespect to the game itself.  No longer.  Touchdown celebrations used to be penalized; now they are choreographed.  Do these guys spend as much time practicing plays as they do practicing their celebrations?

But the latest trend is the one that I can't stand: it now seems that every player who makes a first down, has to do the first down signal, posing for his statue in the hall of fame. They all do it the same way, and it happens every damn time.  What is special about it?  What is even interesting? It's just annoying. To me they look like clowns.  But then--that's entertainment, and with all the TV money, that's the business they are in. 

Wilting Warriors--and the Trade Deadline

 Golden State Warriors Coach Steve Kerr spoke little more than a week ago about having no feeling of urgency regarding the upcoming trade deadline.  He liked the players he had, felt they were the most talented group he'd coached and was looking forward to seeing them flourish. 

 If that reflected management's attitude as well, my guess is that it all changed definitively on January 7th. After the game that night is when--I would bet--the Warriors went into high gear to make a big trade, urgently.  There's no guarantee they will find one, or that it will turn out to help. In fact, it doesn't look likely.  But they may be a lot less reluctant to reach out.  

On Tuesday the 7th the Warriors were defeated at home by the Miami Heat, who were playing on the road in the second of two games in a row, after losing in double overtime, their third consecutive loss.  The Warriors were also coming off a loss, another embarrassing one, to Sacramento as well.  But the Heat brought force and the Warriors wilted.  In his postgame interview Kerr did not hide his anger at the lack of effort and competitiveness, the crisis of confidence on his team.  

That's how the Warriors were characterized in stories in both the San Francisco Chronicle and the New York Times on Wednesday.  Fans who didn't leave early Tuesday night booed the team, after they collapsed in the fourth quarter.

But what really made this a paradigm of the Warriors at the moment is the game that Steph Curry had: he scored game high 31 ( the Heat's top scorer had 20) with 8 threes, and a shooting percentage of 50%.  This came on the same day as a long story on the ESPN site about how other teams are devoting their main defense to stopping Steph because they don't fear any other Golden State shooters.  And still he excels.  The story focus on his legendary status but also his age and the coming end of his career. He wants another championship, and the dare was that this group could find a way to get there.

Kerr also said that Steph is having trouble coping with this stretch of mediocrity.  The Warriors are brilliant some times and awful a lot of the time, but at the moment are exactly a .500 team. Count the number of times Curry has said recently, I just want to win.  And imagine you are in the Warriors front office.  What are you thinking today? 

In the meantime Kerr's analysis is that the only thing this team can do is concentrate on defense, and even after the trade deadline that's where it needs to go.  

A New Year for the Warriors, a Bad End for the Niners

 There's an interesting play of perspectives in the analysis of recent Golden State Warriors woes by Coach Steve Kerr and Steph Curry.

Kerr said that players weren't moving the ball enough and jacking up shots early in the shot clock instead of looking for the open shooter, or simply Steph Curry.  He also mentioned pace and turnovers.  When asked the same question, Curry said it was because we weren't making our shots.  Not making shots is discouraging, which leads to slower pace and getting disorganized, as well as less effective defense.

These two perspectives are different but compatible, and certainly understandable.  Kerr analyzes like a coach, looking at the big picture, at structure and pattern.  Curry analyzes as a player in the middle of it.  

In any case, the Warriors started to look better recently.  First there were two monster 30 plus points games for Jonathan Kuminga on a back-to-back, the first without Curry but the second with both of them on the floor.  Kerr called it a breakthrough of sorts, and a possible key to the future.  It seemed to be a key to the present anyway, as the Warriors won that second game, against Phoenix.

Then a dispiriting loss to Cleveland--but then everybody is losing to Cleveland these days.  And then the new year--and the first two game winning streak since mid-November.  Better yet, the shooting came back, especially against Philadelphia, in which Curry hit 8 three pointers on 8 shots, scoring 30 with 10 assists--one of those magical games in a stellar career.  

But he wasn't the only one--Moody, JK, Schroder and Lindy Waters all had multiple 3s, and as a team the Dubs shot 61% and 56% from three, after a long streak of below 50% shooting.  Ball movement in particular was noticeably robust, which Curry said afterwards was possible because everyone was making shots so there was no problem where the ball ended up as long as the player was open.  

The next game, the Warriors stayed ahead of Memphis to notch the win, despite Curry on the bench for the first in a back-to-back.  Andrew Wiggins stepped up with 24 points, Schroeder had 17, Lindy Waters 16.  And just as Shroder began looking comfortable on offense and made shots against Philadelphia, Buddy Hield (who started) may have come out of his deep slump with 14 points, including 4 threes, and led the team with a plus 18.  

All would be looking very hopeful except that JK went down with a "significant" ankle sprain that is likely to keep him out of the lineup for an "extended" period.  And so the potential of this team remains elusive, which won't help as the Warriors look at the trade deadline in a month.

Meanwhile as the NFL finishes its regular season, the Pittsburgh Steelers lost their fourth in a row to the Bengals, who therefore still have a chance to get into the playoffs, joining the Ravens and Steelers from the AFL North.  The Steelers' collapse doesn't bode well, except for a one and done.

The San Francisco 49ers will finish a hellish season against Arizona with their backup quarterback.  Only serious betters are likely to care who wins this one.  Even with all their untimely injuries, the Niners will probably be looking at some major changes for next season.

Otherwise, Kansas City has been looking more like a dominant team, but the Philadelphia Eagles look better.  Both contenders are resting stars for their final regular season game. Baltimore also has momentum, and Detroit, Buffalo and Washington are also in the Super Bowl hunt. 

In college football, the Bowls gave us a Penn State and Boise State matchup that was closer than the score indicated, plus some upsets and close games.  Ohio State demolished the undefeated Oregon Ducks, so forecasters who picked them as likely champions had a good day. 

 Notre Dame was impressive in their quarter-final.  The semis matchups of Notre Dame and Penn State, Texas and Ohio State should be interesting games though for different reasons.  But these games are each a universe in themselves, and predictions are futile.  I'd give the edge to Notre Dame in theirs, and Ohio State in theirs, but anything can happen on the day.