NFL's 7th Week was probably the most extreme so far, with Winners running up huge scores over the league's Losers. I can't remember a wider gap between good and bad teams, though there are always a few surprises. One of the closer games was the Steelers victory over Minnesota, 27-17. I had that very score in my head the night before, although I confess I didn't know which team would be on top. I did think that the Steelers' winning strategy might be to bend but not break--to lose time of possession but score more points. That's how it turned out, although never in my wildest could I have seen the defense scoring two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter! Amazing. But a very welcome win, because next they face probably their toughest game of the regular season: Denver, in Denver, after a bye week which is great for rest and getting over injuries, but usually leaves you less than sharp for a quarter or more. But winning over previously undefeated Minnesota, with the most touted quarterback (even in losing, Brett Farve got all the air time on ESPN etc., while winning qback Big Ben got zilch) and the most productive running back in the league (who the Steelers held to 69 yards--once again, nobody has run 100 yards on them.) The Steelers showed that they belong among the elite teams, though the level of competition is so distorted that it's hard to know who is as good as they seem. Some sports writers seem to feel Baltimore is better than their record, and nobody seems to know what to make of Cinncy. One of the undefeateds, New Orleans, has yet to play a really good defense. Dallas seems to be getting better, and you know Indy and New England are going to be there at season's end.

NFL 6th with pre-7th Update

Though not reflected in the score so much, Big Ben and the Steelers offense came up big against the Browns. Ben threw for 417 yards--more than anyone else this week--and the Steelers have the top passing game in the league, although this is probably all news to you if you get your sports news from ESPN or NBC. Once again, the Steelers were ignored. Not even Brady threw for more yards in the Patriots impressive high scoring day in the snow against the Titans.

Ben and the Steelers aren't getting credit, but all the overcompensation in Pittsburgh media, while understandable, may be temporary. The week ended with the Steelers in first place in their division, but both Denver and Minnesota remain undefeated--their next two opponents. If the Steelers can win one of those games they'll be doing well. They could easily lose both, and be back even. But if they win both...well, I'm not sure than even then they'll get respect and airtime from SportsCenter.

Update: A little more respect from Madden 10, which predicts the Steelers defeat Minnesota, and hand them their first loss.

Crunch Time

It really does seem like crunch time on healthcare reform. President Obama's strategy so far seems to have worked--he let the opposition huff and puff themselves out, and the insurance companies expose their own greed. He got bills out of all the committees, including Senate Finance. Now reportedly for the first time, White House reps are working directly with Senators and their staff to craft the final Senate bill, that combines the two that Health and Finance passed.

The crucial element remains the public option, and most especially whether the individual mandate and the public option are linked. TPM reports that Speaker Pelosi, getting the House together for a strong public option in their bill, Pelosi came closer than any member of the Democratic leadership has thusfar to suggesting that the individual mandate should be conditional on the inclusion of a public option.

It's a very dicey situation. The Obama campaign machinery is gearing up to get Congress to pass stuff, but nobody quite knows the White House position on public option and individual mandate. Personally, that constrains me from participating. I'm more likely to work with the groups pressing that linkage between public option and individual mandate. I just don't see forcing people to pay for profit-making health care.

Reports have it that the White House is being sympathetic to the Olympia Snowe proposal for a public option trigger (Kos frontpagers refer to her as President Snowe because she seems to be dictating the final bill.) For awhile I've suspected that some sort of opt-out public option would be what comes out of this--some mechanism for a kind of reverse trigger. The proposal that states could opt out of a public option seemed to get general approval last week, but it doesn't seem many are talking about it now.

Of course the option means that the individual can choose a non-public plan. An opt-out is built in. Not so the individual mandate. It's the smell of forcing everyone to buy insurance that's got the insurance companies so excited, and their greed is such that they are working hard to make sure there is no public plan choice. Not unexpected from a business that considers it an affront when they have to do anything but take in money.

TPM also reports that progressive sources are saying that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is "playing an inside game" to get a strong public option. That's contrary to a lot of earlier stories, but if it's true, it may also indicate that the White House--or at least the President--is pushing it, though at the moment behind the scenes. If Reid decides to include the public option into the final Senate bill, its chances increase dramatically, because he probably won't do it unless he's pretty sure it will pass, and because once it's in, it's very hard to get it out. But the drama could be extended if he doesn't, because then it will be up to the conference committee reconciling the House and Senate bills--and Pelosi is said to be positioning to make sure the option gets into the bill then.

So this is crunch time, but not the final crunch time. Still a ways to go.

Update: Krugman on why insurance company greed may have backfired, and Nancy Pelosi saying pretty much what I've been saying about the public option and individual mandate.

NFL 5th

Okay, so it is turning into a sports blog. Who cares? The NFL season is shaping up in a predictable way, with big winners and big losers and a few in betweens. But the names of the big winning teams were totally unpredicted: for among the unbeaten teams are Denver, New Orleans and Minnesota. With the Bengals close behind, and at the top of its division. The pre-season favorites (New England, San Diego) are struggling, and last year's almost undefeated team, the Titans, is winless so far this year.

The Steelers meanwhile are in between. They survived their game in Detroit with the one-win Lions, but until the last stand the defense made, the fourth quarter collapse continued. At least their loss to Cinncy wasn't totally flukish--the Bengals are beating everybody. But their last minute win over the Titans looks troubling.

They play the hapless Browns next week. But their three games after that will tell the season: Minnesota, and after the bye week, Denver on Monday night, followed by the Bengals. The toughest will be at Denver, partly because it's at Denver, and partly because Denver's strength (fourth quarter finishes) is so far the Steelers' weakness. The return of Troy Polamalu (by Minnesota, looks like) should help a lot, but it doesn't necessarily solve the problems--they had a fourth quarter collapse in the Super Bowl as well, with the defense giving up big plays and points, and the offense unable to sustain drives or score. But they won it, of course. You can't ever count them out. This team is even more mercurial than last year's.

Well, I learned a lot about the NFL watching the postgame shows Sunday. I heard a lot about Dallas, etc. Long analyzes of every game, almost. In the almost category as usual: the Steelers. Barely a mention. The P-G's Ron Cook may compare Big Ben to John Elway, but to the TV talkers, he barely exists. Meanwhile, half the fans in the Detroit stadium were Steelers fans. Steeler Nation. But not worth talking about.

Update: Things got bleaker for the Steelers with a season-ending injury to defensive end Aaron Smith, a key player to run defense. Minnesota in particular must be salivating.

City of Champions Redux

Not that this is going to be a sports, Steelers or Pittsburgh blog, but it seems the right place to say congratulations to Pittsburgh for winning the Sports Illustrated title as best sports city in America. It comes with a magazine cover featuring the Steelers Big Ben with the Penguins Sidney Crosby, in a repeat of the Terry Bradshaw and Willie Stargell cover of 1979, the original City of Champions year.

But I probably wouldn't be blogging about this except for one observation in the Post-Gazette story: Penguins spokesman Tom McMillan -- wearing a giant Stanley Cup championship ring on his right hand -- noted that Penguins, Steelers and Pirates players routinely attend each other's games. "That is really unique. That doesn't happen in most cities," he said.

I think that's correct, unless it's a new thing elsewhere as it is in Pittsburgh: I'm not sure Stargell and Bradshaw had even met before that photo session. But it does sound like Pittsburgh, especially now that the ordinary guy ethos has extended to the upper income precincts. It's interesting but it does seem to be true. There are downsides to a middle class and now upper middle class, largely white collar income level with a working class culture, but this is a good thing, if indeed it's evidence of that and not just that these guys are celebrities, and they don't have much in common with anyone else but other celebrities. No, I think it's more the informality of the town, the easy if not always meaningful sense of community.

Snakebit?

It reminds me a little of the 1980 season. The Steelers, fresh from two Super Bowl victories in a row, won their opener at home. Business as usual. (It was also one of only two Steelers games I've seen in the stadium in my life.) But the 1980 season went downhill from there, and a Monday Night defeat late that year kept them from even being in the playoffs.

And that's how this year started: a first game victory that looked a lot like the Super Bowl victory. And it's been downhill from there, at least for the next two games. But only time will tell if this is a team that has passed its peak, or if this is more like 1976, when a still-great team was swamped with injuries.

What the Steelers have this year is a combination of key injuries--especially to Troy Polamalu on defense--and either inexplicably bad play or just bad luck. They lost late to Chicago on a defensive breakdown and two missed field goals in the fourth quarter by one of the best kickers in the league. They lost in Cinncy thanks to two missed catches in the end zone, a route mistake that led to an interception that ended in a touchdown, and the inevitable defensive miscue.

Though they are back home Sunday, the Steelers are not in great shape versus San Diego. Polamalu is still out, now running back Willie Parker is either out or playing hurt, and the backfield is otherwise hurt or confused. With a safety who is getting burned regularly, the pass rush is more tentative, and they're facing a good throwing quarterback with a superior running back at his side. It doesn't look good.

It's only the fourth game, and injuries to key players are more important at the end of the season and in the playoffs than at the beginning. But there's always the possibility that this isn't going to end, and that it's a snakebit season.

So it hasn't been a great couple of weeks. To avoid the panic-inducing political sites, I was doing my evening sweep of sports sites, especially the Post-Gazette's Steeler page. But not this week. It was more nerve-wracking and panic-inducing than even Huffington Post.

It didn't help that Penn State, Pitt and West Virginia all lost last week as well. USC came back to form, but that's about it. But last night West Virginia looked good winning, and tonight Pitt looked even better. They have two freshman running backs who are fun to watch, and have a real future. So we'll see.

Update: I guess this is why they still play the games. No one predicted that with the absense of Willie Parker, second year running back Rashard Mendenhall would finally have his breakout game, running for more than 160 yards, two touchdowns, and making crucial first downs on the last drive when the Steelers were dangerously close to blowing another game in the fourth quarter. At one point they improbably led the Chargers 28-0, and held on to win 38-28. Division leader Baltimore lost, and with the next two games against weak opponents, suddenly the Steelers season doesn't look so snakebit.

How the Republicans Lost the Olympics

When Chicago lost out in its bid for the Olympics, Republicans crowed. They had loudly complained of President Obama's trip to Copenhagen to speak on behalf of Chicago, and were overjoyed that the U.S. lost.

But among the factors against the U.S. was the continuing xenophobic restrictions on visas and passports into the U.S., instituted by the Bush administration and sanctioned by his Republican Congress:

"However, the triumphant Chicago presentation--the culmination of a $48 million package--had cold water thrown onto it when Pakistani IOC member Syed Shahid Ali correctly noted the significant difficulties facing foreigners seeking entry into the United States... America's visa processing issues have been well-publicized throughout much of the world, with some tourists waiting six months or more to have a 10 minute appointment with a visa examiner in an embassy or consulate to visit America on a vacation. Business visas or those for cultural ambassadors, like artists and athletes, are similarly problematic. "

Or maybe civilized people just aren't interested in taking off their belts and shoes, and surrendering their nail clippers and plastic bottles, just to get on a damn airplane.

The Republicans continue to manipulate the media, but the media is becoming an echo chamber audible mostly to itself. Someone on cable noted today that indeed the Rs are opposing absolutely everything that President Obama or the Democrats propose, say or do, including those areas that used to be nonpartisan. This voice added that it seems to be working for them. But outside the echo chamber, it actually isn't. A Pollster.com analyst concludes that "the Republican brand" is the lowest in popularity in history. A CBS poll R's favorables were a minus 30.

Science Advisor


Thanks to salon for discovering this video. Exposing the hypocrisy of this latest effort in the apparently never-ending attempt to impose Christian beliefs on scientific inquiry and Darwin's 150 year old Origin of Species. There's plenty to argue about concerning current evolutionary theory but it all gets drowned by stuff like this. Anyway, this is fun, sexy, Romanian and cogent--and my nominee for White House science advisor.

The Quotegeist: Backward America

"I can't tell you how many foreign leaders who are heads of center-right governments say to me, I don't understand why people would call you socialist. In my country, you'd be considered a conservative." -- President Obama, Sept. 20, 2009, quoted.

NFL Second Weak

So much for the elite teams: New England, San Diego and the Pittsburgh Steelers all lost their second game of the season (as did the elite USC in the college ranks.) The Steelers loss in Chicago was the kind of anomaly that either doesn't mean anything or looks like the kind of bad luck that stalks a season. When the Super Bowl MVP drops a pass in the end zone, and one of the most reliable kickers in the league misses not one but two field goals, all in the decisive fourth quarter, it demonstrates again what Mean Joe Greene used to observe, that NFL football is in part a dice game.

Old timer Steeler fans may be remembering the 1976 team: arguably the best Steelers team ever, but hounded by bad luck at the end of the season, losing both its key backs for the playoffs and not even making it to the Bowl that it won the previous two seasons, and would win twice more.

On paper Sunday's game looked like an improvement--more of a running game, better OL play, Ben was efficient as well as proficient--but all that didn't result in more than two touchdowns. Plus the defense had its problems, and Pittsburgh sportswriters were finally noting that the defense allowed the Cardinals to score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter and come back to take the lead in the Bowl last year, before the last minute heroics. It's going to take a better effort all around in the first division game in Cincinnati this weekend. The Bengals put up impressive points and won their second game, after all.

Bits

Two polls, CNN and Bloomberg show Obama approval up, and health care reform approval up.

A poll of physicians in the U.S. showed approval for a public option of nearly two-thirds. The approval cut across all demographic, geographical lines. NPR made much of this, and Sohum Parlance has one of several analyses.

The Massachusetts legislature is poised to vote authority to the governor to appoint a Senator to take Senator Kennedy's seat until the special election, or perhaps until 2010. No Kennedy is apparently running for the seat, but no word on who might accept the appointment, which might comes with the proviso that the appointee not run.

Bill Clinton settled another score by endorsing San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome for the Dem nom for governor of CA. Bad blood between Clintons and Jerry Brown, the other (but unannounced) candidate. Since nobody is paying attention to this race yet, it's not clear what this affects except big bucks fundraising.

The Death Party

On 60 Minutes President Obama again lamented that thanks in part to 24 hour cable news (which isn't strictly accurate, unless you include infomercials and prison documentaries) that the loudest voices dominate the political dialogue.

The loudest voice lately was Joe Wilson shouting at him during his speech to Congress, and the louts who are now loudly supporting the shouter. In a way it was inevitable, especially after the Daily Kos brigades, perhaps appropriately but certainly predictably, expressed their umbrage by raising money for Wilson's electoral opponent. Then the Rabid Right screamed forth to raise money for Wilson. There may not be a causal link, but it's happened before.

It was the talk of Rabid Right talk radio, and also (reportedly) of black talk radio, where the first outburst calling a President a liar in such an official setting was made by a white southern male to the first American American President were judged not coincidental. Before long, white commentators were voicing that same suspicion. Maureen Dowd did so in the Sunday NY Times, and E. J. Dionne in Monday's Washington Post. Meanwhile, Wilson, seeing which side his bread is buttered on, has more or less withdrawn his apology, and looks upon the imminent possibility of a House motion to disapprove or censure him as more grist for the fundraising mill.

The Saturday gathering of teabaggers in Washington was a signal event, in the ugliness and racism of signs and remarks, and in the baldfaced lying involved in bragging of a crowd of between one and one and a half million, when reputable sources estimated it in the tens of thousands, well under the size of the crowd in Ohio that watched the Buckeyes fall to USC.

But what these folks lack in numbers they can make up in violence, such as the fourfold increase in threats to the President that the Secret Service is reportedly receiving. Or the hatespeech uttered by a preacher in Phoenix a day before the President's visit in which he expressed from his Christian pulpit his desire for the President's death, which was heard by a man who showed up at that speech carrying a gun.

I'm beginning to wonder just how far this racism extends. Because I can't believe that this incident would have gone by with so little official notice or consequence, had the President been George W. Bush.

What this rising tide of ugliness portends has many facets. One is the shameless use of baseless lies--the Big Lie comes to America bigtime--which is related to another that I intend to get into at proper length, the elevation of ignorance to supreme virtue. But for the moment, I give you E. J. Dionne's emphasis on what this says about the American character--something that President Obama spoke about the other night.

Dionne quotes Rush. "This administration is not your average presidential administration," Limbaugh declared. "This is not a garden party. This is not a lecture at Harvard or any other university. We are in the process, we are in the midst of an administration that is trying to totally tear down the institutions and traditions that have made this country great."

Dionne then asks: And what evidence is there that Obama is tearing down our "institutions and traditions"? There is none, unless you see it as an affront to our traditions that we have our first president whose father was born in Kenya, or that the American people decided to elect someone other than a conservative as our commander in chief. The far right has decided that extremism in assailing Obama is no vice.

But Dionne's main point is about what made Joe Wilson so angry--the President said it was not true that "our reform efforts would insure illegal immigrants." But Wilson and his ilk are maddened by even the phantom possibility of some bleeding illegal getting free stitches or emergency surgery, or some sick illegal child getting treated for flu. Dionne mentions the practical consideration of public health that affects everyone, but he focuses on the character issue: " But I am not at all at peace with the fact that the one issue about which a member of Congress chose to rise up and accuse our president of being a liar related to the charge that our chief executive wasn't doing enough to build walls between illegal immigrants and health coverage. "

So with the White Supremacist Party, who needs Death Panels? Just let them all die. It's the Death Party now. That's all they're about.

Game On

Some loonie congressman shouts at the President, essentially calling him a liar, and so soaks up the video on cable and the attention on the blogosphere. But long after Joe Wilson is a trick trivia question, President Obama's speech is likely to be remembered.

In limited checking of TV etc, I've heard views on it as his greatest speech, his most emotional speech, the greatest speech a President has given to a joint session, etc., including from some unlikely suspects, like David Brooks. E. J. Dionne liked its detail and fighting spirit. Mike Lux wrote: "I have been listening closely to Presidential speeches for about 35 years now, have watched quite a few oldies but goodies from the past, have even contributed ideas to a fair share of speeches in the Clinton years, and I am sitting here thinking that was one of the very best Presidential speeches I have ever heard. JFK's inaugural and a couple of FDR's best are the only ones I can think of that moved me so much."

These and other similar responses suggest it's immediate effect already is to galvanize the wavering Obama people, but it also gave some moderate Democrats and at least one moderate Republican the room they need to support reform ( Sen.Olympia Snow praised it and Sen. Ben Nelson called it a gamechanger), while providing both common philosophical ground and a call to arms. For a speech so laden with arguments for relatively specific proposals, it was a masterpiece.

Here's a link to text and video, or you can wander over to Dreaming Up Daily for extended excerpts.

The next few days will be crucial, but I think it will make a difference. And the stronger Obama is, the more likely a public option will survive--although I'm guessing that 4 year window is where the maneuvering is going to be. Something like a reverse trigger: the public option takes effect in four years, unless private insurers are following the new law and are offering competitive prices. Anyway, it's on.

The Barack is back! From President Obama's Labor Day speech in Ohio, where the rubber meets the road on health care.

The Nonsense of August

Two days before President Obama's address to Congress signals the final push for a health care reform, the Political Wire says this:

As everyone gets back to work on Capitol Hill, it's increasingly clear that President Obama survived a brutal August and that even under a worst case scenario he'll be able to sign a meaningful health care reform bill.

Marc Ambinder : "After August, conservatives have exhausted their repertoire of arguments and many of their demagogic tricks. Public support for significant health care reform as something worth doing remains high. Support for Obama's plan remains unchanged -- didn't grow, certainly, but didn't decline. Support among Democrats remains at 90%. Obama's message tomorrow night will be one that dovetails with what the American people believe: it's important to get health care reform done."

Jonathan Chait: "Despite all of the setbacks and all of the missed opportunities -- despite this train wreck of a month -- the situation remains remarkably similar to what it was before the recess. Significant health care legislation is likely to pass, particularly if Obama manages to give a good speech on Wednesday night. And while the possibilities for what that legislation might accomplish have certainly diminished, mostly for worse, it's not clear how much they have diminished -- and to what extent progressives may yet have the power to change that fact."Most important, Democrats are coming to realize that failing to pass a bill when they control the House and Senate would be political suicide -- just like it was during the 1990s.

The Pittsburgh Steelers ended their preseason with their second straight win, this time with the younger players trying to make the team beating up on Carolina 21-10. Several of these young players did themselves good, especially Stefan Logan, seen above high fiving the crowd after his 80 yard punt return, which apparently sealed the deal: he's made the team, and may give the Steelers a weapon they didn't have last year. Another offensive standout was running back Isaac Redman, who punched in another goal line touchdown. The Steelers are so deep at running back however that the local experts are saying Redman is not likely to make the team, which I find hard to believe. He's a fan favorite already. I'm betting they find room for him.

Well, the Steelers are reigning Super Bowl champs but one thing hasn't changed: they get no respect from ESPN. This year just like last year their games are hardly covered, usually last if they make Sportscenter at all. The yak is all about Brett Fauvre, Michael Vick, ad nauseam, and the favorite going into the season is Hollywood Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Regardless of picks, let's remember accomplishment, and the Steelers have only strengthened themselves since January. It's disgusting how little attention or respect ESPN pays the Steelers.

As for the upcoming season, the only thing that would surprise me from the Steelers is cold efficiency. It would be a relief, though. The NFL is looking more like baseball year by year, divided between the elite teams and the bad teams. It's still true that on any given Sunday any team can win, but for a bunch of teams that's going to be a stretch. The Steelers are among the elite teams this season. They've added some potentially exciting players on both sides of the ball, and addressed several weaknesses, although the o line (especially in terms of depth) remains the biggest question mark. Which means Big Ben will probably be improvising a lot again this year, so anxiety awaits again. They start the season next Thursday against the Tennessee Titans.

Update: Redman was cut, but he was signed to the practice squad so he's still a Steeler. Apparently the Steelers are still looking for an experienced O line sub, but didn't sign anybody off waivers. It looks like all the key players are healthy for the opener. Should be quite a show, against a tough team.

Today's Panic (Read Right Away or It Might Be Over)

This feeding-on-itself political news environment wouldn't be so bad if it didn't infect people with panic. It's to be expected that the various sides on the healthcare debate are going to jockey for position, but what's more than a little crazy is the panic some folks express, their instant disillusion with Obama, so disappointed they'll never believe anybody again, etc. Meanwhile, President Obama's speech is not until next Wednesday. It's a little too much like the mindless panic of the Rabid Right.

I've read the headlines and the summaries for way too many accounts and speculations, and just about the only one that passes the smell test so far is this one from Ambinder, and even it is unlikely to be accurate in all details. There have been rumors and panics a half dozen times about Obama abandoning the public option (as it's called) and each time he's reaffirmed his support. I don't expect this time to be significantly different.

I will add this to the argument: I don't see how it is possible--or even legal--to make it a law that everyone must buy health insurance, and not at least offer the choice of a public nonprofit plan. I can't think of a precedent for a law requiring that people buy the product of a private for profit company. People are required to pay taxes, but even that requirement makes some allowances. So I'm not worrying about socialism. I'm worrying about government mandated capitalism.

Update: Apparently the individual mandate is based on laws requiring auto insurance, available only from private companies. But you are required to buy auto insurance only if you own a motor vehicle. You can choose not to own one. To me this is still a stretch.

Counternews

You've been hearing what a terrible August it was for the Obama presidency. Some of what you might not have heard, including secret news that was actually published in the last few days:

--the Wall Street Journal admits the Obama Recovery Act is working to improve the U.S. economy.

--even the AP must note that auto sales boomed in August. Thanks in no small part to the Obama incentive program. (Otherwise known as the clunker program.)

--FEMA has been revitalized and is getting very high marks. In New Orleans. From, among others, Governor Bobby Jidal. He of the unfortunate GOP response to the State of the Union. He who said he'd turn down Recovery money.

--Salon reported that the U.S. is brokering what may turn out to be a breakthrough in the Middle East. In case you missed it, Obama and Sec. of State Clinton sent former President Clinton to North Korea, and he not only got those U.S. journalists out, but sudden progress is being made on nuclear talks, and on North/South Korea relations. Iran has also indicated a new willingness to cooperate with nuclear inspectors.

---On health care, with all the noise and jockeying, the GOPer fringe may have blown their wad in August, town halls are becoming support health care reform events, and Obama still has the votes in Congress.

But hey, keep this to yourself. Wouldn't want cable news to catch on.

Massive fires are only the most visible reason that California is a state of emergency. See post below.

State of Emergency

The Terminator returned from the East Coast to declare California in a state of emergency, due to the tremendous fires in the L.A. area. Apart from the immense damage, the loss of life (2 firemen so far) and the cost of trying to fight them (with no success so far) these fires threaten the Mount Wilson Observatory, and have caused the evacuation of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, which means among other things that the Mars rovers have stopped in their tracks.

That the effects of the CA fires extend to Mars is just one of the operative metaphors for this state's plight. Schools are reopening, and starting to cope with budget cuts, and no one involved in them--students, teachers, administrators apart from the highest ones--is being affected. Mandatory furloughs and across the board pay cuts are just the beginning.

The spiral downward is accelerating due to these cuts. The CA economy, particularly hard-hit because of high participation in the housing market bubble, started to falter, and to send less in taxes to Sacramento. Refusing to raise revenues, the Terminator terminated or disemboweled programs mostly for the poor, old and sick. Very heroic. Already the CA economy appears resistant to the improvements seen elsewhere--the official unemployment rate rose to nearly 12%, the highest in more than 60 years. Despite the federal recovery act, construction jobs fell, as did tourist related jobs, the combination hitting the Latino community hardest. But that was even before the decline in pay for state workers, and the loss of jobs because of cut programs. Those effects are now rippling through the economy as well as the society.

Since the Terminator gave in so bravely to the quaint but unaffordable anti-gubment hysteria, the state is helpless when it is clear that government is going to be needed more than ever--and these fires are Exhibit One.

First of all, look at them. These are very powerful fires. And as this eloquent diary attests, this is not even yet fire season. These fires aren't supposed to happen in August, not in southern California. But the entire southwest is parched, in the midst of a multiple year drought. The Climate Crisis is coming to get them, and it's not going away.

Just as these fires threaten the air, the water, the business and public resources of the region and beyond, California's economic tailspin will affect the rest of America and the world economy. But the Terminator plus the perfect storm of a helpless state government and a total leadership vacuum in the state, together forestall much hope that California can fix itself any time soon.

Kennedy Farewell: The Music

As was repeated (and shown repeatedly in the retrospective films that played over (and over) the past few days), Senator Ted Kennedy loved music, and music was a big part of all of the memorial events. There were songs at the Kennedy Library, including hymns and several choruses of "When Irish Eyes Are Smiling," with Irish tenors outdoing each other each time.

The most impressive music came at the funeral Mass. Yo Yo Ma played the Sarabande of Bach's Cello Suite #6, which if I'm not mistaken has particular meaning for the musician, who played it for his father shortly before his death. In any case, he played it memorably, with evident feeling. Placido Domingo sang Franck's "Panis Angelicus," the Tanglewood Chorus sang Brahm's "Let Nothing Ever Grieve Thee," and mezzo-soprano Susan Graham sang a wonderful "Ave Maria" by Schubert.

But I was especially taken by the organ music at the very beginning, as Kennedy's casket entered. The processional hymn, which began a bit later, was "Holy God, We Praise Thy Name" but I couldn't tell if the organ music was another version of it, but whatever it was, it was beautiful, mysterious.

The most notable addition to the day's music was at the Capitol, after the official prayers and singing. As the hearse was about to leave, the crowd across the street spontaneously began singing "America the Beautiful."

But the musical moment I will remember came at the very end, at the Arlington National Cemetary, in the most impressive solo version of Taps I've ever heard. It was not an ordinary rote rendition--it was very musical, with pure tones and full of feeling.

Hysteria Day

Let's remember this date. Media hysteria is probably at its peak, although the extremes to which the 24 hour news cycle/ cable/ blogosphere/Twitter/etc. can go can never be underestimated. This is in fact their chief danger.

A month or so ago when things were so boring and President Obama's approval was in the 60s, the Democrats were certain to make huge gains in 2010 and the Republican Party was dwindling unto death.

Today the momentary conventional wisdom is that the Democrats are in for huge losses in 2010, Obama (with approval ratings from a tick under 50 to a tick under 60%) is reeling, and CNN is asking--"a one term President?"

His healthcare reform plan is stumbling, the economy is still sputtering and violence is up in Iraq and Afghanistan. writes Reuters, in one of many predominant stories about Obama's woes. Whether the healthcare reform plan is stumbling is arguable, since Congress is not in session, but we'll grant that the news generally isn't good. "Violence is up" is also arguable, and who can deny that "the economy is still sputtering." Still--

Also in today's headlines: Pace of U.S. existing home sales fastest in 2 years (also Reuters), Bernanke says prospects for return to global growth good (also Reuters); Fed, ECB eye recovery, too soon to hit the brakes (also Reuters: World’s Central Bankers Voice Optimism About Recovery (NYTimes), etc.

In a sane society, we'd be debating real stuff, like why employment is lagging (or is it? Unemployment went up at the same time as hiring--could it be that people are more actively looking for work now that there might be some?) and why California's unemployment is growing so fast (could it be because of state budget cuts mandating layoffs and the effects of program cuts on not only government jobs but private sector jobs of suppliers etc.?)

Nah, better to wallow in hysteria. Have a good weekend!

Pre-season Steelers: Well, our third team is better than their third team. The starters and backups for the Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals (who last met in the Super Bowl, which--if you've forgotten--THE STEELERS WON--didn't do much against each other Thursday night. The Steelers highlight was this catch by Limas Sweed, looking good for the first team third receiver. It must be said however that Cardinal coach Ken Whisenhunt has again designed a sweet passing offense for quarterbacks Kurt Warner, Matt Leinart and rookie Tyler Palko that should make some waves in the NFL this year. Only former Steelers backup qb Brian St. Pierre, now with the Cardinals, was ineffective.

Still it was a very good night for the Steelers, as they saw several weaknesses in their world champion team potentially repaired: they got their punter back from injury and he boomed every kick, they may have found a new short yardage back (Isaac Redman) and a speedster to return kicks and catch passes (Mike Wallace) as well as lots of new pop on the defense. Injured backup qb Charlie Batch looked healthy but most of the game was played by second year qb David Dixon who showed poise and skills, and could be a star of the future. With lots of room to improve, the Steelers WON 20-10. Photo: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

The Right To Get Out of a Town Hall Meeting Alive

I lived through the assassinations of the 1960s, barely. I know what gun violence can do to our collective life and to our individual lives, even at a great distance. But we all have seen evidence in just the past week of what one violent person can do with a gun in a crowded space.

So I am utterly astounded at the spectre of people carrying guns to town hall meetings, one outside a meeting with President Obama in New Hampshire, and one actually inside a meeting with a Congressional Rep in Arizona,, where a holstered gun clattered onto the floor. And completely baffled by the apparent fact that in both cases, this gun-toting was legal.

There are two concerns here. First, the safety of the President and of Members of Congress. But second, the safety of the people attending town hall meetings.
How can it be legal to bring a loaded gun to such an event, even in the parking lot? But even more, how can it be legal to bring a gun into a town hall meeting? Does the right to bear arms trump the right to get out of a town hall meeting alive?

Presumably, there are fire codes that would prohibit someone from setting a fire in this crowd. But there is no law covering the clear and present danger of gun violence? In a heated situation, in which tempers are clearly on edge, and when people are being incited to go to these events with the most inflammatory public rhetoric I've heard in decades?

Presumably the Secret Service can prevent guns from getting much nearer than the parking lot outside an event where the President is appearing, but that's too close for me. That gun was loaded, and the man was holding a sign that made clear his advocacy for shedding blood.

But as we've seen in the coverage of other town hall events with Senators and Reps, there is little or no security. So there is no one to prevent guns from entering, and no one to deter their use inside.

This is a threat to participatory democracy and to the public safety. It must be addressed. Do we need video of bleeding bodies and panic to anticipate and correct this? I don't want to see the current insanity become tragedy for the innocent and their families as the result of some "lone gunman" at a town hall somewhere.

While it may be that the extremists showing up at these town hall meetings aren't doing much good for healthcare opponents, I'm afraid that stunned disbelief and ridicule are not sufficient responses. Somebody has to take the clear and present danger seriously.

Josh Horwitz has a column that narrates what's being going on, and how the fomenting of violence is a consistent theme. He concludes:

This year has already been marred by a series of horrific shootings involving individuals who hated our government and believed they had a constitutional right to strike against it: Richard Poplawski in Pittsburgh, James von Brunn in the District of Columbia, Scott Roeder in Wichita, Gilbert Ortez, Jr. in Texas, etc. With tensions escalating at town halls across the country, the overwhelming majority of Americans who wish to peacefully exercise their First Amendment rights must speak out against the violent, insurrectionist philosophy that has corrupted the Second Amendment.

I advocate more than that. Somebody important at the White House better be calling somebody important at the FBI who better be alerting law enforcement at the local level. These guys seem pretty good at spying on Quakers. Maybe they ought to be checking groups and individuals who have crossed the line and actually threaten violence, with the means to cause it.

Time Out

The insurance company-promoted violent mobs preventing citizens from hearing their (Democratic) members of Congress on the important pending healthcare legislation, the TV and radio traitors ginning them up, the rapid growth of Rabid Right terrorism--at the same time as headlines suggest a retreat to meaningless reform--is all so upsetting that my dear partner has warned me to stay off the news for awhile. So I will. In a minute.

I don't actually participate much at Daily Kos these days, but the alarm there is palpable and not entirely extreme. While the frontpagers catalog the parade of outright lies and fraud, as well as the accelerating threats and acts of violence, diarists like this one and this one and this one analyze the nasty direction. And I'm not going to let the historical echoes be preempted by the projections of the Rabid Right, because it all does remind me of what I've read about Germany in the 30s, when the Nazis were just starting to make their move.

Paul Krugman got a lot of attention with his column, and he rightly ascribed a lot of the emotion involved to racial paranoia and outright racism:

Many people hoped that last year’s election would mark the end of the “angry white voter” era in America. Indeed, voters who can be swayed by appeals to cultural and racial fear are a declining share of the electorate.

He also alluded to Yeats' scary apocalyptic poem:

But right now Mr. Obama’s backers seem to lack all conviction, perhaps because the prosaic reality of his administration isn’t living up to their dreams of transformation. Meanwhile, the angry right is filled with a passionate intensity.

And he concluded:

And if Mr. Obama can’t recapture some of the passion of 2008, can’t inspire his supporters to stand up and be heard, health care reform may well fail."

I have been getting emails from the Organizing for America organization that grew out of the Obama campaign, but they don't seem to be as creative and on top of stuff as they were then, or so it seems to me. Still, I've called my congressman as they requested (he's also had a town meeting disrupted, though that was far from here--this district is spread over an enormous area. Interesting that they shouted What's wrong with profit? which doesn't sound very populist, but goes pretty much to the heart of what's wrong with healthcare.) And yes, I've even contributed some money again, to pro-healthcare reform ads. But none of it seems like enough so far.

But I'm hoping to take the weekend off, for my mental health. And I'll give the last word to Bill Maher in his cogent column: New Rule: Just because a country elects a smart president doesn't make it a smart country.

R.I.P. film director John Hughes, who died of a heart attack at age 59. I was already older than the demographic for his youth movies in the 80s, but I loved The Breakfast Club and Ferris Bueller's Day Off. These works by the Chicago director were some of the few signs of life in the Reagan years. The "Twist and Shout" scene in Ferris remains one of the most joyful scenes in an American film, capturing the spirit as well as the music of the Beatles movies of the 60s.

Thursday's Notes

Caught on TV: "I like the organic industrialism of this piece." Organic industrialism? Is that like industrial farming?

Electronic media seems to turn everything into a circus. The Beer Summit. The woman who called police, the black officer who witnessed the arrest of Skip Gates, relentlessly and unfairly vilified, both sound hurt and both look like they've been run over by a steamroller.

Trenchant commentary on the subject by the Brown professor Rachel Maddow had on first. But the comment that will stay with me was made yesterday by Pulitzer Prize winning columnist (and black man) Eugene Robinson, after host Howard Dean tried to make it sound like all this was just a mistake all around. Robinson said that he did not know a black man who doesn't believe race was a factor in Professor Gates' arrest.

On the circus: Chris Matthews, while decrying such loud liars and amplified morons as the Birther people, also complained that Obama's press conferences were too dull. He said so to the tune of very loud background music, and it may have been during his "Politics Sideshow" segment. Someday he might put it together: it's news as entertainment that empowers and amplifies the lunatics and liars, and by complaining about substantive news conferences, he's encouraging the media atmosphere that gives the idiocies he decries their aura of legitimacy.


Despite the hoohaw about Obama poll numbers, the Gallup poll headline is Obama Gets High Marks on Leadership and Empathy. And while other numbers are down from the stratosphere, Pres. O and the Democrats still do significantly better than the GOP/ White Supremacist Party.

Farm Team

Way back when I was wearing the New York Times uniform, I had a one-on-one conversation with the General Manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was telling me about his impossible problems: shrinking revenues in a market hemmed in by geography and population declining within it. The message was the struggle to keep the Pirates competitive. It was kind of shocking at the time, because it was 1980, and the Pirates were the reining World Champions.

But the Pirates had their last competitive team in 1991, when Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla and Andy Van Slyke patrolled the outfield, and they came within one out of winning the pennant. All three were soon gone, and the Pirates haven't been a first division team since.

In recent years they've been notable mostly for supplying contenders with star players, and this season they've outdone themselves, capping it all by trading away their last two good players in one day: today.

Not just good to great players, but fan favorites. When I was in Pittsburgh in June, the Pirates were so desperate to get people to games that they expanded their free-game-on-your-birthday promotion to include anybody who has a birthday all year. "Basically if you've been born, you can get a ticket," the TV announcer explained.

Now just why the Pirates can't compete in the same city that is home to the World Champion Pittsburgh Steelers and the World Champion Pittsburgh Penguins is something more subtle minds will have to explain. All I know is that the suggestion I made almost a decade ago--that the Pirates stop pretending, and just officially become a minor league team--is coming true, although the pretense is still there. After all, most of their players now are minor leaguers, and they are clearly a farm team for competitive teams in the Major Leagues.

Maybe they should concentrate on food and drink (they do seem to be doing that) and putting on a good show in that great new ball park, maybe have a ticket lottery with the winner announced during the seventh inning stretch, and a live band on the field between innings. A Ferris Wheel in the outfield and a tractor pull in the parking lot. While playing other farm teams.

California's Inept Deal with the Devil

The LA Times has a revealing story on how the California budget was passed in the state legislature:

" The power of Sacramento lobbyists was only one of several factors threatening to bring the Legislature to a halt. Steinberg turned aside the proposal from Intuit's representatives. But lobbyists for major interest groups were present throughout the night, seeking to influence the process. With hundreds of pages of legislative language passed with little time available for review, few knew what the fine print might contain.

Early proclamations that the cash crisis had forced lawmakers to transcend pettiness and partisanship devolved into hallway deal-making. Over and over, legislators with designs on higher office balked at measures that could be used in campaigns against them. Legislative leaders, inexperienced in their jobs, repeatedly found they could not deliver the votes of their caucuses.

Term limits have made this batch of lawmakers among the most inexperienced in decades, and many legislators, their attention focused on their next elected office, spent the night watching the moves of real or prospective opponents in upcoming primaries."

All this sordidness might be excused if they had passed a sane budget, with sane cuts and sane revenue increases. But even though they saved posh Santa Barbara beaches from oil rigs and maybe let localities fill some potholes this year, the budget forced on this hapless legislature by the cunning and shameless macho image-making of the Terminator will cost the poor, the sick, the old and the young in suffering as well as dollars, as well as stop any sort of economic recovery in the state for the forseeable future.

For this temporary respite (a few weeks vacation before they have to work on the next budget in October) they will reap the whirlwind: multiple lawsuits, costly court judgments and possible if not likely strikes by various public employees.

First stop: a spike in California's unemployment and a further decline in consumer spending, as the effect of state layoffs and income cuts ripple out. Count on it.

Coming soon: two crippled state university systems, damaging California and the United States' ability to compete economically, as well as consigning more students to dead end futures.

Health Care Reality Check

Opponents to healthcare reform talk about the cost. On Wednesday, President Obama emphasized the fact they ignore: healthcare reform will decrease federal debt, not increase it. And without reform, the deficit will balloon to unsustainable proportions.

Opponents parrot the old crap about a gubment program meaning people won't get to choose their doctors (a lie) and bureaucrats will determine care instead of doctors and patients. Though anyone who has even heard of someone who needed to invoke their health insurance, or who has talked to a doctor or just read a newspaper knows, this charge should be laughed out of the room. As
President Obama pointed out, insurance companies routinely dictate and often deny care, and their bureaucracy drives doctors and hospitals crazy. Which is one reason that the AMA and other medical organizations support the Obama plan.

Opponents demonize the Canadian system, actually saying on the floor of Congress that Canadians and Europeans "don't value life as we do," which is such a cliche of manufactured xenophobia that it's been parodied as something Romulans say about the Federation in Star Trek, using exactly those words.

The facts are that 85% of Canadians approve of their single payer health care system. Care is not denied nearly as often as it is here, and Canadians are not flooding the U.S. seeking care.

Spiraling health care costs and especially healthcare insurance costs are ruining businesses large and small, state and local governments, the federal government, and families across America to an outrageous degree. It's estimated that in 10 years, if the price spirals continue, half the income of American families will be absorbed by health insurance.

The scandal of the U.S. health insurance system must be confronted and ended. It is the only responsible recourse.

La salute non si paga: Health is not for sale.

Healthcare is Happening

Bumps in the road etc. but the headlines? As Nate Silver notes, "The fundamental weakness of the White House press corps is that they can rarely see beyond the current 24-hour news cycle..." I happened to hear two correspondents, including Chuck Todd, admit as much, and that the throughline in this here drama is that a healthcare bill is more likely than not.

Meanwhile, E.J. Dionne writes about the multiple reasons that President Obama is justified in saying, "don't bet against us," on healthcare and other big issues.

Taking Sides

It's pretty obvious who is going to pay for the California budget crisis by class: the rich and near rich reap the benefits of intact programs and corporate subsidies, while programs for the poor and the working middle class are cut or killed.

The winners and especially the biggest losers are divided by age: the very young whose nutrition and health programs are cut, the young whose education is shortchanged, and the elderly who may see home health care killed entirely.

But the losers are also visible by race, that most obvious and ugly remnant of how America apportions its bounty. This is not only because the social and health programs being cut and killed disproportionately affect blacks, Latinos and Native Americans. It's because cuts to education also deprive them most directly. Education is their path to a better life, that the well off already have.

But in taking sides, the Terminator is deeply wounding the state of California, and the country's future. Every layoff by the state is lost revenue as well as lost talent. California cannot prosper without good schools and an educated population. But schools from primary through college are in state-caused chaos, as well as suffering from decades of neglect. That California is close to becoming a majority non-white state, a mainly black and brown state, makes these decisions destructive to education all the more racist.

As for the national economy and the nation's future, President Obama made this point in his stirring address on the 100th anniversary of the NAACP:

"The state of our schools is not an African American problem; it is an American problem. Because if black and brown children cannot compete, then America cannot compete... We used to rank number one in college graduates. Now we are in the middle of the pack. And since we are seeing more and more African American and Latino youth in our population, if we are leaving them behind we cannot achieve our goal, and America will fall further behind -- and that is not a future that I accept and that is not a future that the NAACP is willing to accept."

But it a future that the Terminator's California is not only willing to accept, but a future it invites.

Hell Freezes Over

It must have, because the American Medical Association has endorsed the House version of the healthcare bill, which not only provides a public plan option but finances it partly by taxing the wealthy, especially those making above a million bucks.

The AMA has been a notorious foe of any reform, going back to their opposition to Medicare in the 1960s. Everything was "socialized medicine" with them. But as insurance companies soaked up all the bucks, doctors lost out, and lost their autonomy not to government bureaucrats but--wait for it--corporate bureaucrats.

Further evidence of the temperature change in hell is that the infamous Harry and Louise are back--but this time supporting comprehensive healthcare reform. Their ads were famous for attacking the Clinton healthcare plan, and though they weren't likely to have been decisive, they became a symbol of that defeat. Click to see the ad.

Tuesday's Notes

If you're looking for a site that is tracking the ins and outs of healthcare legislation in brief summaries, you're looking for TMP/DC.

TG's Political Wire notes a lovely bit of theatre at the Sotomayor hearings. When GOPer windbag Sen. Sessions sententiously quoted the philosophy of another woman jurist to counter the caricature of S's approach he was trying to create, S. noted that the jurist he quoted was a friend, and in fact was in the audience at the hearing supporting her. Sessions is not considered the brightest bulb in the Senate, so maybe this one was too easy, but it was a nice piece of one-up-showmanship.

A couple of Kos diarists, Blue Texan and Turkana, have made the point that I've suggested before, but with Sarah Palin as the proof. Here's how Turkana put it, referencing a Peggy Noonan column deriding Palin: "Noonan herself played right along, pretending the ultimate elitist Bush was a man of the people, pretending his lack of intellect or intellectual curiosity was somehow laudable, pretending that she herself gives a whit about anyone living outside her own income bracket or social circle. Had it not become possible for someone as manifestly unqualified and incapable as George W. Bush to become president, it would not now be possible for Sarah Palin to be taken seriously as a national political figure. Had Bush been dismissed as the caricature he was, no one outside of Alaska would know Sarah Palin's name."

It's been a long time since I paid attention to the baseball All-Star game, but I found myself watching both the home run derby and the old timers/celebrity softball game yesterday, so I expect to watch at least the first few innings of the game tonight. I remember watching the home run derby as a kid, although I'm not sure it was associated with the All Star game yet. But those All Star games I watched, black and white images from one camera high above home plate, featured Mantle and Mays, Maris and Musial, and other famous players whose names didn't start with M. The idea of putting young celebrities in with the old timers helped the entertainment value of that game, but at my age the most fun was watching gray-bearded Ozzie Smith playing shortstop with style.

Terminator Lies

Pushing his suddenly rabid right agenda, the Terminator (who is currently governor of California) is lying about fraud and abuse, demonizing a program to help the elderly and confined by asserting that a quarter of its funding is wasted. His own administration's study says it's more like 1%.

Rabid Right shock doctrinaires are trying to scare investors etc. by claiming that California's businesses are leaving in droves. It's not true. Neither are the rich. And why would they? What is true is that the rich are avoiding any responsibility or payment for the budget crisis, while the poor and the middle class state employees are paying everything, including their health.

The poor can't do anything about it, although some courts are defending them and state employees. But the middle class state employees can at least strike.

Today's Notes


Andrew Sullivan's blog continues to be an excellent source of news on the continuing protests in Iran.


And thus it must follow as the day the night... A day after several stories on the ramping up of lobbying mega bucks by insurers etc. on health care, there are stories about how the House or Senate proposals are in trouble. With remarkably little substance. Meanwhile, the Senate Health committee Kennedy/Dodd plan cuts costs and includes more people than earlier plans, and Speaker Pelosi promises a bill in August with public option passed by the House. She delivered on cap and trade.


Speaking of which, an excellent, precise analysis of the cap and trade bill by a Harvard economist in an oddly titled interview in Salon.

Memorial

The Michael Jackson mania has mostly passed me by. Although I thought his moment in the 80s--"Billie Jean," the moonwalk and his other moves, "We Are the World"--was brilliant and energizing, those were the last years that I followed what's new in pop music. He would have meant more to those who were younger and starting to pay attention then.

Mostly I felt the response was inflated and overwrought, with such patently false claims as, his was the only music shared by several generations, children to grandparents. That's been true of a lot of popular music going way back, but the most obvious case in point is the Beatles. And I guess that's my generation's point of reference. The Beatles had many more memorable songs and a series of breakthrough albums that dominated popular culture for a decade, etc.

So I was prepared to just wait this media circus out. But I did hear some words from the memorial in Los Angeles today that made me take notice. Those words came from black people--musicians but also sports stars Magic Johnson and Kobie Bryant--paying tribute to Jackson as a breakthrough artist for all black entertainers, paving the way for global stardom. They would know that history better than I, though I do remember that black artists didn't get on MTV until Michael Jackson broke that barrier. So for that, and for his charity work, I make my peace with Rest in Peace, Michael Jackson.

The Delusional Enabled

Here are two examples of two trends. The trends are: the Republican congressionals' increasing detachment from reality, and the latest Internet/blogosphere/Twitter/instant messaging technologies tendency to enable and propel their delusional politics, wasting everybody's time, energy and public money.

The two examples are in one dispatch on Tuesday's congressional follies by TPM: first, the GOPer noise machine amping the volume on a Congressional Budget Office report that by the end of the day was proven not to exist, and an equally delusional panic button Twitter-storm on a vote that was never scheduled and never happened.

The Terminator

As California continues to sink financially, economically and with social consequences accruing for a long time to come, it's clear who is responsible now: Governor Arnold.

The legislature, the voters, the system, are all culprits in the larger problems, but on this specific budget crisis, it is the Terminator's recalcitrance and attempts to shock doctrine the situation that's the sole reason California doesn't have a budget.

It could have happened weeks ago, but the Terminator refused to consider any new revenue streams, which legislators proposed along with cuts, to avoid the Terminator's catastrophic cuts.

Then Democratic legislators gave up their revenue additions, and the governor appeared to give a little on cuts. But since then he has demanded additions to the deal that he couldn't get passed otherwise, and that have little or no bearing on the current budget.

His destructive stubborness finally led to Assembly Speaker Karen Bass shutting her door to his blather. Until the Terminator actually negotiates, there's no point in holding negotiations. So far the governor has apparently been winning the perception game, but maybe now the truth of it is clear: he is single-handedly terminating California, and dismantling the lives of countless Californians.

Palintology

Sarah Palin picked Friday July 3 to announce she's stepping down as governor of Alaska after 2 and a half years of her first term. Her logic was completely bogus: she's not going to run in 2010, so she's a lame duck, and a lame duck governor does nothing but travel a lot. First of all, a lame duck is an officeholder who can't legally run again. She can. And she wouldn't be even perceived as a lame duck unless she announced she wasn't running, which there was absolutely no reason to do. She made herself a lame duck, and then used that as an excuse to quit.

The pundocracy is somewhat divided: she's committed political suicide, or she's freed herself up to build a national base to run for the presidency in 2012. I think she wants a national profile, but as a media celebrity. She's got some sort of deal in her pocket. She made sure she had her $7 million book deal signed before she made this announcement. She can make a lot of money catering to the Rabid Right: book sales, speeches, some sort of Rush Limbaugh type media presence. It became clear, with the Vanity Fair article, that she has no future within the Republican Party. And it's a long time to 2012. Who knows what can happen. This is just the first shoe to drop, though. Another is coming.

Lakers

Phil Jackson will be back as coach, which is good. But the Lakers signed Ron Artest from the Rockets and let Trevor Ariza go to the Rockets, which is bad. I tried to say so on a Lakers blog yesterday, but my post apparently didn't make some sort of cut. So it was left to a LA Times regular columnist to make precisely the points I did, with the same memory: the attempt of a championship team to augment with Big Names past their prime (Karl Malone, Gary Payton). Besides which Payton was an asshole, and so is Artest.

The rationale might be buttressing the "physical" element (i.e. the muscling, pushing around, flying elbows, etc.) for the finals next year. The Eastern contenders have strengthened themselves since the end of the season: Cleveland, Orlando and Boston. The Lakers may not even be tested much in the West, but it's going to be very competitive among these three teams in the East. The Lakers will have to be plenty tough to beat the winner, because the winner from the East is going to be plenty tested.

It also looks like either the Lakers management screwed up, or Ariza's manager is an asshole, or most likely both. So this past year's Lakers may be its team for the ages, particularly with its team play and various players rising to the occasion. Ariza thrived as a Laker and was likely a big star in their future. In the NBA anything can happen, and he could wind up back in LA, though he has a three year contract in Houston. Artest may be popular with a certain segment of the Lakers fan base. But not with me.

The Terminator's California Shock Doctrine

Governor Terminator and his Republican minions are ignoring the efforts of the Democratic majority in the California legislature to address the state budget with a mix of cuts and new revenue, which is just simple sanity. The Terminator is trying to force deeper and more extensive cuts, with no new revenue. Today he is succeeding a little more.

At least one writer at Caltics is now using "shock doctrine" as a verb, as in the Governor is shock doctrining the budget. And it's all too apt. Naomi Klein's book, The Shock Doctrine, shows how the political forces of predatory capitalism used economic and other major shocks in one country after another--causing some, taking advantage of others--to institute severe measures that benefit them, but that the people would not allow under ordinary circumstances. We saw the Bushites institute their own Shock Doctrine after 9-11, leaving us with a legacy of torture, the Patriot Act, a wrecked economy after billions returned to the rich, and billions more flowed to the contractors who profited from Iraq and the war on terror.

The Terminator is bringing the Shock Doctrine to California. And the message he and the Republicans are sending is clear: when times are tough, take it out on the poor. The Terminator wants to balance the budget on the backs of the poor, the sick and the working middle class.

Like other shock doctrine changes, it is self-defeating and massively destructive in the long run. In this case, the state will be pissing away billions in federal funds, and tying the state up in court cases for years, many of which it will lose, as it has already. There are laws against penalizing the poor and the sick to such an extent. Everyone loses from deteriorating public health and education, part of the community's basic infrastructure.

These are days of shame for California, in uncountable ways. Self-destruction, which began slowly with Prop 13 a generation ago, is accelerating. There is no solution in sight.

60

After all these months, it got settled in a day: the MN Supreme Court's unanimous verdict on all counts, the Governor ready to certify, Coleman's concession and so: Senator Al Franken.

Though in his victory speech, Franken made a point of saying that he views himself not as the 60th Senator in the Dem caucus (enough to stop a GOPer filibuster), but the second Senator for Minnesota, he did begin his list of priorities with health care and clean energy. So this 60th Dem could not have arrived at a better time. It changes the calculus on healthcare and climate/energy legislation, just as they both are being hammered out.

It doesn't guarantee anything really, but it's a lot bigger than just one more vote. This could turn out to be one of those pivot points of history.

Where's the White House Channel?

We have, at the very least, an interesting President. He's doing and saying a lot. At his press conference today, he made compelling points on a number of issues, and showed again how superficial the media coverage is, not to mention the White House press corps. ( It's not always pretty, evidenced by the sight of ABC's Jake Tapper barely suppressing his hostility while being overmatched by Obama's intelligence and wit.)

But we must depend on those superficial and witless outlets to transmit these press conferences, speeches and events. And they don't always do it. They almost never present events other than press conferences and major speeches in full.

Meanwhile, the House and the Senate each have their own channel of C-Span. It's only when they aren't bloviating to empty chambers that the President gets on.

So why doesn't the White House have a channel? Just on equity grounds, it makes sense. But maybe Obama is just too interesting, and his dynamic and serious concentration on the real needs and opportunities for people in this country might put the rest of the programming to shame. As if shame wasn't pretty self-evident.

I'd sure watch it. I don't agree with everything he does and especially isn't doing, but every time I see him in action, as in today's press conference, I know there isn't another person I know of--not in the whole of my lifetime, in fact--who I would rather see as President of the United States right now. I'd not only watch it. It would be my favorite channel. I realize, given what's available, that isn't really high praise. But it's reason enough to demand: why isn't there a White House channel?

California Nightmaring

Update: Caltics uses--gasp!--facts to show that "the May 19 special [election] was not a tax revolt and that people will actually vote to raise revenues for services." The evidence is several recent ballot measures in which SOUTHERN CALIFORNIANS (the supposedly most rabid anti-tax place) voted for tax increases to fund services such as education.


The Nightmare continues. Voters rejected the recent ballot propositions purporting to fix the California state budget for all kinds of reasons--some of them specific (universities would be locked in to inadequate spending levels long after the current crisis) and some general (agreeing on a sensible budget and running the state is the least of what we elected the gov and the legislature to do--why don't they do their jobs?) But Governor Terminator sees only one message: no tax increases, and so he rejects a budget compromise that includes some new revenue instead of just draconian cuts that hit the poor the hardest.

Meanwhile, the macro arguments go on. Sacramento Bee commentator Dan Walters insists all the economic arguments are flawed: "The entire deficit on which they are working, $24.3 billion including Schwarzenegger's desired reserve, is well under 2 percent of the state's economy. The lesser cuts and taxes they are debating would merely shift relatively small amounts of money from one form of spending to another, all within the state's economy, so the macro economic impact would probably be nil, no matter what they do.
The greater threat to our economic future would be a prolonged political stalemate, followed by enactment of another dysfunctional, gimmick-laden budget, thus providing more proof of our chronic inability to govern ourselves."

But others see more impact. Describing the findings of a new report: “These health and human service cuts are the worst of both worlds: they not only directly deny people the services that California families need, the cuts cripple our ability to get out of this economic downturn,” said Anthony Wright, executive director, Health Access California, the statewide health care consumer advocacy coalition. “The Governor’s cuts make no sense, since in order to save a few state dollars, California gives up a lot of federal dollars, for our health system, and our economy.”

The impact on education, and then on the California economy, and then on the U.S. economy, could be equally profound, both now and getting worse in the future. That is, these relatively few dollars can cause losses in both financial and human terms of much greater proportions, and much harder to fix when they become apparent.

But the most frustrating aspect of this crisis is the lack of balance. Those already suffering because of low income will suffer more. Those with higher income will not even be inconvenienced in the short term, although they and their children will be hurt by all of this in the future.

That's partly because the Terminator is insisting on only cuts and no new revenue, to the extent that he has promised to veto any tax increases proposed by the legislature. That's the way to come to agreements to deal with this crisis? Much of the problem is because the state's politicians are polarized and can't come together for the good of the state. You'd think that after at least a year of political posturing, and up against the wall of a very serious crisis, these bozos could come up with a package of cuts and revenue increases to deal with the budget in a more balanced and sane way. But apparently not. The Terminator is going to continue the insanity, and make it worse. And unfortunately, at present, the Democrats don't have a leader to stand up to him.

Economic Notes



Soaking up information and talk on my Pittsburgh/western PA visit, I can report that some real estate activity has picked up, but largely due to refinancing when rates bottomed out. Now people are starting to worry about inflation, due to the influx of federal money.


But Paul Krugman makes a persuasive case that stimulus must continue in his ironically titled column "Stay the Course" (think Bush and Iraq.) The column, which appeared Monday, says that inflation isn't going to rise a lot, because the influx of federal government money simply replaced the private money that wasn't there. And indeed, today's news is that inflation in May was below expectations. He also warns that stopping stimulus too soon is exactly why the Great Depression didn't end sooner, and Japan had such a dismal 90s.

Back in CA, things are grim. State government went begging to Washington and for now, got turned down, but this article sets out some of the stakes. Meanwhile, faculty at HSU were told to expect what amounts to a 12% pay cut. Twelve percent! And that's just the beginning.

City of Champions (and Lakers) Continued

Pittsburgh continue to celebrate, with an especially close bond between the Penguins hockey players and their most devoted fans on the South Side, where players and coaches partied and once again shut down Carson Street when fans gathered to be part of it. Penguin stars also appeared at the Pittsburgh Pirates baseball game, sharing in the celebration of the first Pirates World Series win in 1906 against the Detroit Tigers, who were in town. (I wouldn't want to be from Detroit today, since Detroit lost the Cup, they lost that 1906 World Series, and today they lost the game.)

Tomorrow the craziness reaches its apex, as the official parade for the Penguins is held downtown. Some streets will be closed as earlly as 2:30 am for the parade at noon. Anyone going to Pittsburgh tomorrow for any other purpose may well never get there.

But tonight, Pittsburgh is ignoring what I was watching, which was the fifth and final game of the NBA Finals. A 16-0 run in the second quarter pretty much decided it, as the Lakers won with a dominant team performance, including some highlight reel shots--probably one that makes his all-time highlight reel--by Kobe Bryant. Bryant is by all accounts still clearly the best player in the game, and this accomplishment added to his status in basketball. After the Lakers lost in the finals last year, Bryant kept playing, leading the U.S. team to an Olympic gold medal, and then right into this championship season. He won the MVP for the finals.

Update 6/16: The victory parade for the Penguins in Pittsburgh drew an estimated 375,000 people on a sunny day. The local media is chortling over the efficiency and lack of real trouble over the celebratory events of the past few days, in contrast to the destruction and looting in Los Angeles after the Lakers win.

City of Champions

Though I'm not much of a hockey fan, I lived in Pittsburgh when the Penguins won their Stanley Cup championships in 1991 and 1992, and by happenstance, I'm in Pittsburgh the day they win it again, in 2009. It's the first time teams from the same city have won the Super Bowl and the Stanley Cup in the same year, so Pittsburgh is the City of Champions again. They were the City of Champions in 1979 when the Steelers won the Super Bowl and the Pittsburgh Pirates won the World Series. That World Series win was also the last time that a team in any major pro sport won the deciding 7th game of a championship series in the other team's city. The Pirates won in Baltimore--a night I remember well--and tonight the Penguins won in Detroit.

The local TV news is showing the celebrating crowds on the South Side and in the student quarter of Oakland. The police are out in force, trying to keep control. Out where I am, there were local fireworks and screams in the street. In a way it's too bad that it's a long weekend because the grownups have their fun when they go back to work.

Pittsburgh is surging in other ways at the moment. The downtown is full of construction projects, the city has been named the Most Livable again, and President Obama is sending the G 20 summit here in September, which will give the city an international spotlight. I saw the newly expanded convention center and it's pretty impressive. The North Side has the two new ballparks, restaurants, the Carnegie Science Center and children's museum. The downtown cultural district is pretty solid. As the hockey game began in Detroit, the Pittsburgh Symphony was playing its final concert of a successful season.

There are some not so wonderful things about this area. There is quite a bit of recessive racism that comes to the surface now and then. But the emphasis on family is not entirely fictional. The Steelers clearly draft for character as well as talent. The young star of the Penguins, Stanley Crosby, actually lives with the team's owner and his family--who happens to be Mario Lemieux, the star of those two Stanley Cups champions in 91 and 92. That's part of what Pittsburgh is about.

As for that other series--in a sport I actually understand--the Lakers took game 4 in overtime, in a kind of classic comeback. The Orlando Magic didn't distinguish themselves late in regulation and in overtime, leading to one of their key players issuing what has to be the quote of the year, when he said that one reason they lost was "our stupidness."

Kobe

I am currently in the land of the Penguins, and while I cheer for any Pittsburgh team, I know very little about hockey and can't get interested in watching it. So tonight I watched the first game of the NBA finals, and it's clear already that whatever some idiots have suggested (just don't look back too many posts in the past), the LeBron era isn't ready yet. This is still the Age of Kobe.

The Lakers used their height and a strategy based on it, that was successful in the last two games against Denver, to dominate the Orlando Magic, especially defensively. But it was the one superstar wrecking crew named Kobe Bryant who destroyed Orlando, leading the Lakers to a 25 point victory.

He played as if it was game 7, and strategically it was almost as important-- when Phil Jackson coached teams win the first game, they win the series. The Lakers took the Orlando energy and the surprise insertion of a great player who has been injured nearly all season, and absorbed all those punches. They maintained their own energy, getting defensive stops to match their offensive output in the second quarter, and then Kobe just took over the third quarter, scoring from everywhere and in every way. It was a classic performance.
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The Terminator vs. the Helpless:With this photo of a demonstration against health care cuts in Los Angeles by health care workers and patients, the New York Times story about the California budget cuts: "The cuts Mr. Schwarzenegger has proposed to make up the difference, if enacted by the Legislature, would turn California into a place that in some ways would be unrecognizable in modern America: poor children would have no health insurance, prisoners would be released by the thousands and state parks would be closed. Nearly all of the billions of dollars in cuts the administration has proposed would affect programs for poor Californians, although prisons and schools would take hits, as well."