The Politics of Health Care

President Obama outlined the process for health insurance reform at a Democratic National Committee function on Thursday, and it's pretty interesting, pretty shrewd. It also illuminates for me what conclusions he's drawn from the debacle in MA.

Immediately after the unthinkable (and unthinkably embarrassing) loss of the 60th Senate seat in a solidly Democratic state--the seat held by John and Edward Kennedy for a half century--Obama announced that he wasn't going to try to rush the healthcare bill out of conference and through the House and Senate before the Dems lost their filibuster-proof 60 (which coincidentally happened officially on Thursday.) This upset some people, because it seemed a kind of surrender. He also seemed to step back from the process, letting congressional leaders hash out how to accomplish the final bill, and some feared he was abandoning health care completely.

But in his State of the Union and in every forum since, he's made clear that he's still committed to healthcare reform. But why he backed off a bit became
clearer today. Apart from the complacency that allowed the Senate seat to slip away (and Obama addressed that immediately by bringing David Plouffe back to ride herd over all the congressional races this year), Obama clearly saw that the GOPers had succeeded in distorting the healthcare package enough so it didn't have the support it should. And the lack of public support was showing up in declining support among Democrats in Congress.

So his plan is to organize a meeting of legislators--Dems and GOPers--along with the relevant experts, make it public--televise it--and hash out the plans that were passed, and what should go into the final bill. Then put it to a vote. The process, he indicated, should take only a few weeks, and might be the next order of business after the jobs bill he says is his first priority right now.

“What I’d like to do is have a meeting whereby I am sitting with the Republicans, sitting with the Democrats, sitting with health care experts and let’s just go through these bills,” Mr. Obama said. “Their ideas, our ideas. Let’s walk through them in a methodical way, so that the American people can see and compare what makes the most sense. And then I think that we have got to move forward on a vote. We have got to move forward on a vote.”

Part of what Obama clearly wants to do is clear the air of distortions, and focus public attention on what the bill will really do, and what it won't.

Mr. Obama said that Americans were apprehensive about the health care legislation because there was too much misinformation that he would now work to clear up.
“They are certain that they would have to go onto a government plan, which isn’t true,” the president said. “But that’s still a perception a lot of people have. They are still pretty sure that they would have to give up their doctor. They are still pretty sure that if they are happy with their health care plan, that it’s bad for them. They are still positive that this is going to add to the deficit. So there is a lot of information out there that people understandably are concerned about.”

He presented the rest of the process in a matter-of-fact manner: He continued, “That’s why I think it’s very important for us to have a methodical, open process over the next several weeks and then let’s go ahead and make a decision. And it may be that if Congress decides, if Congress decides we’re not going to do it, even after all the facts are laid out, all the options are clear, then the American people can make a judgment as to whether this Congress has done the right thing for them or not. And that’s how democracy works, and there will be elections coming up and they will be able to make a determination and register their concerns one way or another during election time.”

But there was a more aggressive message under the calm. Because clearly he believes this is an argument he can win, and once the actual undistorted plan is clarified for the public, there will be a political price to pay for not passing it.

It's a gamble, but you have to like his chances. GOPers are still reeling from his dismantling of them and their arguments at the Republican House caucus. The other very powerful element in his favor is the fact that both the House and Senate have already passed comprehensive health care bills, 90% of them (the President says) the same. So all the painful months of this process so far may not have been wasted. It still will take some heavy lifting, but the process that Obama outlined is both rational and politically shrewd. GOPers have been crying that nobody is listening to their ideas, and they've criticized Obama for not conducting a more public--and televised--process. After the televised caucus Q&A, they may not be as eager for that--but if it's handled right, they're going to get it.

If it works, the process will be persuasive, polls will reflect increasing public support for reform, and legislators will have to decide which side of history to be on, and what they want to face the voters having done or not done.

At one point, as the president insisted that he would continue to fight for the health care bill, the crowd chanted, “Yes, we can! Yes, we can!”

Play The Damn Game

Since I stopped watching political shows, I tend to eat breakfast with sports shows washing over me like water warmed by hot air. I don't expect much of them. I like PTI--I met Tony Kornheiser once when he was a young wolf, and we were both circling around the same foxy lady. Only I was invited, Tony--you weren't!

Anyway.

It's Wednesday and I'm sick to death of the Super Bowl, which isn't until Sunday. Two weeks of chatter is a week too much. And there really isn't much to say. You can't root against New Orleans, but Indianapolis has the edge, because once Payton Manning figures out the defense--and sooner or later that usually happens--he can carve it up. That's what it all comes down to.

Besides, these teams are so evenly matched that it all comes down to game day. Which defense clicks, and which quarterback. Which receivers make the catches they should, and which backs have a good running day, without fumbles. Nobody can predict any of that.

And only the teams themselves know what their coaches have up their sleeves. Maybe a new blocking scheme to unleash New Orleans' formidable runners, taking the pressure off the passing game. Here, the Saints have the edge. If Reggie Bush has a great game, they have the edge.

It could be a sloppy game, even a grinding game, but chances are it will be an exciting game. I'm just tired of hearing about it. Play the damn game and talk about something else, please.

League Championship Thoughts

So I picked them both (Indy-30 Jets 17, New Orleans 31 MN 28) but I don't feel good about it--at least, not about the second game. The Saints-Vikings game started out great, a lot of fun to watch. But it got ugly. It isn't fun, at least for me, seeing a quarterback get beat up like Brett Favre did. The Vikings basically outplayed the Saints, Favre outplayed Brees, but some pretty bad calls by the officials and some unforced errors set them back. Still, Favre had them in position to win the game, but at the end of regulation, beaten up physically and mentally exhausted, he made a fatal mistake. He had to get ten yards or so, and though he had a running lane he probably didn't feel he could make it. He threw an interception, and his truly courageous game ended with a bitter taste.

The Saints offense did basically nothing the second half. They got a few breaks in overtime, and their kicker did his job. It's great that New Orleans is in their first Super Bowl ever, but they got in ugly.

I also have to say that based on this game I'm withdrawing my SB pick. The Saints were almost rudderless in the second half--they couldn't run, they couldn't throw. Now Indy has two weeks to study what the Vikings defense did to stymie the Saints. The Saints looked lethargic, they were out of rhythm. It may have been that they were beat up, too, and two weeks to heal up should help their energy level. But if the Colts defense can replicate what the Vikings did, the edge goes to them.

As happened all season, the Colts did just enough to win. That's usually dangerous, but the Colts play with such confidence, and Payton Manning deals with pressure and defenses so well, that they are hardly ever out of the game. They basically studied what the Jets did in the first half, didn't panic when they were behind, and carved up the Jets defense and stifled their offense in the second half. The Saints will need to reenergize, and they'll need Indy mistakes and the kind of breaks they got today.

On the other hand, there is still the question mark about the relative strengths of the conferences--it looked to me that the NFC teams were stronger. New Orleans dismantled the Patriots, but then it turns out that the Patriots weren't so good even relative to the AFC. The Saints OL and DL could overpower Indy. Although I don't relish seeing another quarterback beaten into the ground. I guess that's why some people watch football. Not me.

NFL: Final Four Picks

Due to popular demand from a breathless public, I'm issuing my picks for the playoff games this weekend--because there just isn't enough about them available on TV and in print. (Seriously, I didn't think it was possible to talk so much about the same four teams every day for a week, but hey, that's why I'm not on ESPN.)

Indianapolis Colts v. New York Jets: On offense, the Jets run and the Colts pass. The Jets defense can cover and also blitz, and so, to a lesser extent, can the Colts. If the Jets control the tempo by running effectively, and their defense smothers Payton Manning, they win. But if they fall behind, they have a harder time catching up by scoring points quickly. If the game is close, Manning is better at manufacturing points, and except in a real blowout, the Colts can never be counted out until the game is over. I expect Manning to do a lot of short passes, to try to counter the Jets ability to dominate the clock. But Manning can also get points on the board. If the Colts can't stop the run, they're pretty close to cooked. If the Jets can't stop the pass, they are cooked.

So when you're looking at this by considering various scenarios, the Colts have to be the favorites--they have more ways to win. Also on average, this looks to be a close game. Still, this game could be a blowout either way, depending on whose specific game plan works, plus the breaks of the game. Both teams are capable of having a great game, and both are capable of having a bad game. How's that for temporizing? So I have to pick the Colts, but a Jets victory would not surprise me.

New Orleans Saints v. Minneapolis Vikings: A pair of well-matched teams, with high powered offenses and defenses that can be stifling, but can also be breached. I expected to be picking MN because of their defense and the wily ways of Brett Favre. But then I saw New Orleans last week, and if they play like that, no one can beat them. I haven't seen a more balanced offense since the 70s Steelers, and their defense was pretty impressive.

Both of these offenses can be so efficient that they're scary. Still, I don't think this is going to be as high-scoring as the Arizona-San Diego game. This one is less likely to be a blowout either way than the AFC final. So... with the Saints at home, a possible key injury to the MN offense, I have to give the edge to New Orleans. But again, a Vikings victory wouldn't surprise me.

But if that's not definite enough for you, here's this: the winner of the Saints-Viking game beats the winner of the Colts-Jets game in the Super Bowl.

NFL: Now There Are Four

I'm three for four this weekend on playoff games, including the Dallas meltdown I predicted would happen. But how about those Jets? That was the big surprise--San Diego was a frequent favorite to get to the Bowl, especially on the basis of momentum. But for San Diego (and Dallas) the momentum stopped cold on Sunday, and partly for the same reasons: the other team's defense getting to the Qback, turnovers, an unaccountably erratic kicker, and a certain loss of composure. I expected that from Dallas, but not San Diego.

I have to laugh at all the Dallas hype--and that's another commonality. I think both Dallas and San Diego believed their hype. Minnesota showed some character. So did the Jets, though they got some breaks and hung on. Minnesota just kept coming, taking every opportunity.

Saturday's story was the return of the winning moxie for New Orleans and Indianapolis, both undefeated until late in the season, both throttled back towards the end and lost several games. But they were vindicated about rest--both very energetic and, contrary to expectations, sharp. Especially New Orleans. That was the most fun to watch of any of the playoff games I've seen this year. I watched Reggie Bush at USC (all their games are broadcast here) so it was fun watching him do similarly flashy running (contrary to what the announcers were saying, he ran over people at USC too.)

So now that I'm on a roll, what are my picks for next week? I don't know if I will make any, certainly not now. I know the sportswriters have to be salivating for a Minnesota-New York Bowl: the wily 40 year old veteran Qback vs the rookie Qback half his age. And it could happen. Right now I'd have to give MN an edge for defense vs. New Orleans, but the Saints get a big home field advantage. New Orleans can be dominant, but Minnesota can be wily and if the game is close you can't ever count them out. So right now I'd say that one is even.

The Colts have the early edge v. the Jets, but the Colts have won so many games by getting breaks late that their luck has to run out some time. (They won by 17 over the Ravens, but the Ravens aren't that impressive.) How much pressure can the Jets get on Manning? Which team makes the fewer mistakes? I don't think anyone can confidently make the Jets the favorite. But you can't count them out.

Nobody expected three not very close games this weekend (New Orleans was a blowout, and though MN won by a big margin, it wasn't really over until the 4th quarter.) But I'm sure the conventional wisdom will be for a high scoring MN/N.O game and a low scoring Indy/Jets. We'll see.

I used to be a big fan of late night talk shows. I cut my teeth on the great Steve Allen show on Westinghouse in the early 60s, and being a night owl anyway, I watched far too much of Johnny Carson, Tom Snyder's Tomorrow Show, Arsenio Hall, David Letterman's NBC show and God help me Joey Bishop, Merv Griffin, and even Regis Philbin's brief late night foray. I remember as a child listening to the adults talking in hushed tones about the original Steve Allen Tonight Show and did bluff my way into seeing a little Jack Paar.

But I haven't watched any of it for years (even though I was present backstage with Steve Allen at the Tonight Show anniversary during Jay Leno's first year), until one night this week, when the Conan O'Brien-Jay Leno kerfluffle at NBC hit high gear. If you haven't followed it, basically: Jay Leno left the Tonight Show 8 months ago and began a 10 pm show several nights a week, while Conan ( who previously followed Tonight in Letterman's old spot) took over Tonight, as his contract stipulated. But Leno's show bombed and Conan lost the Tonight Show's ratings over Letterman (now on CBS.) So NBC wanted to put Leno back on at 11:35, with Conan still doing Tonight, but at 12:05. Conan refused, in an open letter professing devotion to the Tonight Show tradition.

I tuned in that night to see him, switching back and forth to Letterman, and later also Jimmy Fallon and a touch of Carson Daly on NBC, Jimmy Kimmel on ABC and Craig Ferguson following Letterman on CBS. Not only did Conan have a lot to say about the NBC situation--they all did. Major dollops of their humor were about it, and almost all of it was hostile to Leno and NBC. There was less of it with Jimmy Fallon, who was clearly more taken with fulfilling a widely shared fantasy of singing a Beatles tune with a real Beatle (Ringo Starr.) But Jimmy Kimmel did his whole show as Jay Leno--though it was described as "unflattering," it got him an invitation to appear on Leno's prime time show. (It's also possible that I've confused the two Jimmy's.)

I dipped back into it last night, and the Leno/NBC/ insecure talk show host jibes continued, falling flat to me--I mean, poor poor pitiful Conan, who is likely to come out of this at worst with a settlement worth $10 million a year. My other takeaway, and this probably says more about me than about them, but I don't find late night interesting or funny anymore. And I haven't for years--clearly why I stopped watching. The guests are comparatively boring and almost exclusively show biz, and the humor isn't worth the increased commercials time. Though Jimmy Fallon is a nice enough, the only new guy who makes me laugh is Craig Ferguson. As for the kerfluffle, well, I don't think Conan is that good. Letterman's show is better. This may be an age thing (mine I mean) but Letterman's is better paced.

The other element in all this is Comedy Central's dynamic duo of Jon Stewart and the Colbert Report. So I suppose if I got back into the bad late night TV habit I'd start by switching around from Stewart-Colbert/Charlie Rose/Sports Center and Star Trek: The Next Generation reruns from 11 to 12, then check out Craig Ferguson's monologue. I don't know, maybe it is a better use of my time than blogging.

Wild Wild Card Weekend

The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles destroyed themselves instead of the Dallas Cowboys doing so, and Green Bay's vaunted defense disappeared, leading to some wild Wild Card outcomes. For the Eagles and maybe especially the Patriots, there will be questions that some fans are asking about the Steelers--are they suddenly too old? Or is this a Lost Season for Brady coming back from injury, just as Big Ben's first year back was for him?

I watched little or none of three of the Wild Card games, which probably should disqualify me from commenting, but it's my blog and I'll cry if I want to. Frankly I don't like either Dallas or Philly so almost anything was more important than watching that game, and maybe I should have paid more attention to match-up problems Philly had vs. Dallas, so I'll listen more closely to match-ups next time. But I don't buy into Dallas as a team of destiny just yet. They still seem fundamentally able to crack up at any time.

I did watch a lot of that touch football game between Green Bay and Arizona. Maybe that's how the game should be played--it was fun and nobody got killed. It seems evident that neither team could defend and both quarterbacks had a brilliant day, but I'd point out something else: the receivers on both teams had a brilliant day. They were catching everything. Talk about age--can Kurt Warner's arm recover in time to challenge New Orleans? That's a big question in my mind.

It's possible that the winner of the Dallas-Minnesota game next weekend will have played their toughest game of the playoffs. I'm rooting for Minnesota, and I expect the Saints, Colts and Chargers to advance, but what do I know? I'm 1-3. At least I was right about the Bungles.

Wild Picks

For Wild Card weekend, I'm picking New England, New York, Philadelphia and Green Bay. Though the Bungles are favored over the Jets, they've been moving in the wrong direction for much of the second half of the season, and the Jets have the mo. The same might be said of Dallas vs. Philly, but I don't think the result will be the same this time. Dallas is going to self-destruct at some point in the playoffs, and this game is as good as any.

Meanwhile, the Steelers have axed their offensive line and special teams coaches, and re-hired their offensive coordinator. Though their defensive coordinator told somebody that he wasn't retiring, there's nothing official yet. The official word on Big Ben's shoulder is that he's okay, but I wouldn't take that to the bank just yet.

As for the national college championship game, it pretty much ceased to be that in the first few minutes when quarterback Colt McCoy, the entire Texas offense, left the game hurt. After days of hype, I wonder how many millions turned it off after ten minutes. Fortunately for the sports channels, next year's quarterback for Texas brought them back, before the crucial turnover--where have I seen this script before? Oh yeah, the first Steelers vs. Ravens.

Now that the Browns new g. m. has rehired their coach, who was 1-11 before ending the season with four straight wins, maybe Pittsburgh can feel a little better about being the first in that streak--victimized by low expectations as well as a suddenly energized and effective running game by the Browns. It looks like the AFC North next season is going to be a lot more competitive.

The Irregular Season

The NFL regular season is over, and it was weird. Denver began it by winning six straight games, and lost so often afterwards that they didn't make the playoffs. Indianapolis and New Orleans came into the last weeks within striking distance of a perfect season: now Indy has lost two in a row, and New Orleans three.

No team looked good for the whole season. The hot teams right now--San Diego and Dallas--were pathetic early on. Not to mention the New York Jets. Some of the league's worst teams for much of the season--Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, San Francisco--went on winning streaks and scored a lot of points. Except for Oakland, with another injury to another quarterback, they ended the season strong.

Within that irregular context, the Steelers strange season doesn't seem so strange. At one time poised to make a run for the division championship on their way to the playoffs and the Super Bowl, after winning big games and entering the soft part of their schedule facing weaker opponents, they lost five games in a row, including three inexplicable ones. Then facing quality opponents, they won three in a row to end the season, including Sunday's victory over Miami. For a few hours afterwards, their slim playoff hopes were alive. But as predicted, Baltimore and the New York Jets won their games, and the Steelers season was over.

But within the strange scheme of wins and losses, there were meaningful patterns. The Steelers won or lost by not many points. Sometimes their offense sputtered, but more often their defense couldn't stop the other team, particularly late in the game. Sunday was no different. The offense scored early and often, but the defense gave up points. Then a key injury to Miami--their second-string quarterback went out--allowed them to pile up a lead. But Miami's third string quarterback scored two quick touchdowns on the defense, and was poised to score another when he made a fatal mistake. And that was the game.

That's how the Steelers won and lost this year. They won when the other team made more mistakes, and they got lucky. They lost when they made more mistakes, and the other team got lucky. Nobody overpowered them. And they couldn't overpower anyone.

And all through the league, injuries to key personnel made a big difference. For the Steelers, it was Troy P. What was different for the Steelers was that without Troy and another key defender, the defense showed vulnerabilities that maybe even the team didn't understand were there. And now they know.

Sunday's Steelers game was bracing in several ways. Fans had to be excited seeing the running game return, and especially Willie Parker show some spark. Special teams performed well, and Stefan Logan may have saved his job with several skillful returns. (Parker may have as well, assuming he wants to stay in Pittsburgh and will accept a lesser role and contract.) And Big Ben--well, when the extent of his arm or shoulder injury is known, we'll know if not getting into the playoffs may be a blessing. But he played so valiantly and so well, taking the Steelers on their final drive to seal what had suddenly become a close game, throwing accurate passes in obvious pain...it was the most courageous performance I've seen since the famous Michael Jordan playoff game when he was so weak from flu he could hardly walk onto the floor.

Going out with these three victories, and with some great highlights, helps the fans keep the faith, and helps the players restore some self-respect. But it doesn't change the likelihood that there are going to be changes.

As for the rest of the day, the Jets blew out Cincy, and play them again in the first round. I don't see the Bengals or the Ravens getting very far. New England played Brady on Sunday, and they still lost--but more to the point for their chances, they lost their top wide receiver. Indy may have run out of luck. San Diego looks like the AFC favorite.

Dallas blew out Philadelphia in a game that both teams wanted, and they play each other again next week in the first round. Despite the score, Philly is capable of turning the tables on Dallas. Minnesota won big, so they go into the playoffs with some confidence. New Orleans lost again, and their confidence must be pretty low. Green Bay finished strong, too, but Minnesota beat them twice. I'm thinking Minnesota.

But if the playoffs are as irregular as the season, all bets are off.

Sports Talkers

I give credit to sports reporters and commentators. Sure, they're cliche-ridden. In addition to the usual nomenclature, this year's flavor of the tongue in football includes "makes plays" as in this player/offense/defense not only does this and that, but most importantly, they "make plays." Another favorite concerns players who are good "in space." They don't mean outer space, but in what used to be called the "open field." Or sometimes, just when not in direct contact with other bodies. And therefore the cliche of the year has to do with players capable of "making plays in space." That's good, you see.

So plenty of cliches old and new, but at the end of the day---hah, an old favorite--I give credit to sports talkers (particularly on ESPN) who still know, understand and employ the distinction between "fewer" and "less." So they describe a team as having "fewer points," or a defense that is making "fewer interceptions" this year, etc. And I also note that Keith Olbermann, sportscaster as well as political talker, observes the classical definition of "presently," meaning "soon," not "currently."

It's not just a case of proper use of English, but of having something interesting to say. (Though they often go together.) Certain commentators, like Merle Hodge, are especially knowledgeable and informative. And I've watched Sunday Night Football on NBC even when I didn't care much about the teams playing, just for the coverage by Al Michaels and Cris Collingsworth.

Of course, there are plenty of sports talkers who talk blather, and do so incoherently. I heard one guy trying to fill time in a dull game today praise a coach for transforming a college program "singlehandedly, with a lot of help from other people." I turned him off.

NFL Preview

The final weekend of the season will determine the Wild Card teams in the AFC. The Steelers are technically still in contention, if they win their game with Miami (in Miami) and several combinations of other teams lose. It's not something I'd bet on happening.

Regardless of whether the Steelers win, if Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they take the Wild Card spots in the playoffs. It's very likely both these teams will win. Baltimore is unlikely to have two bad games in a row, and the Jets are playing the Bengals, who not only are likely to rest their starters for the playoffs (they've won the division) but very probably don't want the Steelers in the playoffs enough to do as little as possible to win their game. (That's if the Steelers win over Miami earlier in the day.)

Contrary to the oddsmakers and the Steelers' LaMarr Woodley , I don't think New England cares that much about the Steelers to take a dive, and I expect them to win their game. I think they have a particular incentive to be sharp going into the playoffs, since they have been out of synch for much of the season.

All of this is academic if the Steelers don't win, and they might not. They're pretty banged up, Troy P. is unlikely to play, they haven't done well on the road this year. Yet it is important for the team--and for many of the players individually--that they play well.

Even if they do, there are changes coming, perhaps within weeks. I still expect their revered defensive coordinator to retire, and there might be players on the defense who make that choice as well. The offensive coordinator may have saved his job with the last two wins. But all of this depends on the internal assessment of what went wrong this season, and there's evidence suggesting coaches as well as players. Whether the Steelers can do much with trades, free agents or in the draft is an open question, and will be for awhile. But in any case, I expect "next year" to start for them Monday.

If it doesn't? It looks as if Troy P. could play in the playoffs. He could make the difference for the defense. And with Big Ben, anything is possible on offense, although it would help if they were healthier. That's really been the one common element their last two Super Bowls: everyone was healthy. That's not going to be the case this year--they're still missing starters on defense. The Steelers are good enough and experienced enough to play at a high level, but past the first round, they'd have to hope that their opponent comes out flat, and makes lots of mistakes. Yes, anything can happen. And that's the beauty of this week, preceding the last game of the regular season.

Like I Said

So why aren't I getting the big bucks for sports prognostication, or at least scads of readers hanging on my every wise word? Don't know, but I do know that the Steelers-Ravens game went pretty much as I felt it would. As this report as well as this one confirm, the Steelers won when Baltimore had a bad game--lots of penalties in ridiculously crucial situations, turnovers and a spectacular muff of a pass in the end zone.

Plus, as I suggested, the Steeler defense confounded expectations by shutting down the Ravens in the fourth quarter. Not that they dominated--they lost a 10 point lead in the third quarter, and allowed a big rushing game--first back over a hundred yards in a couple of years--but they came up big on the Ravens' last drive especially.

So now the Steelers and a half dozen other teams are 8-7. The Eagles helped their playoff chances by beating Denver, the Titans lost Thursday, but the Jets unexpectedly ended Indy's undefeated season (and the decision to bench the Indy starters in the 3rd quarter to save them for the playoffs was discussed endlessly on TV), which gets them back in the wild card race. It will all be decided next weekend, the final weekend of the regular season. The Steelers have to win in Miami and hope that several other contending teams (the right ones, like the Ravens) lose.

And now that Indy and New Orleans have joined the teams that look vulnerable, a playoff spot might even be worth having. Still, San Diego and New England are finishing strong, and they're the favorites. I still don't think Indy is as good as its record. In the NFC, Philly is for real, Dallas is not. It should be interesting to see if Minneapolis can play a strong game Monday night against Chicago--not just win, but dominate. Green Bay bounced back well from the loss to the Steelers. Which, by the way, I expect Baltimore to do.

We'll have to see how banged up the Steelers are, going into the Miami game. It's going to be tough--tougher than Miami was today in losing to Houston--but if Troy comes back, that's a big boost. One other good thing about the Steelers game today was the emergence of two young players--an impressive 4th quarter for Ziggy Hood on defense, and a heady start for the recently signed wide receiver, Tyler Grisham, who caught his first NFL pass in a crucial situation. The Steelers have their problems that will have to be addressed after the season, but one good sign of a strong organization is when new players and seldom used players can step into crucial situations and not only do well but make a difference.

Pre-Game

The Steelers-Ravens game is just hours from starting. I won't see it--it's not broadcast here, as usual. But I've got a feeling about it. At this time of year, it seems teams are having inexplicable bad games. The question is whether Baltimore is due for one. For it seems to me that it will take an extraordinarily good game by Pittsburgh or a bad game, a flat game at least, by Baltimore, for the Steelers to win. And it seems more likely that Baltimore will have a flat or a bad game. It's hard to see the Steelers playing with the same intensity they did against Green Bay. Of course, if they do, then they may deserve to get a playoff game--which is still pretty unlikely, even if they win this one.

The conventional wisdom among Pittsburgh sportswriters seems to be that to have a chance, the Steelers will have to score a lot of points, because their defense can't stop anybody anymore. That seems to be the emphasis the Steelers coaches are making, at least in public. Given how well conventional wisdom has done this year, maybe we should expect a low scoring game that the Steeler defense wins.

But if both teams play their "normal" game, it's even, with a slight edge to Baltimore. If Troy P. were playing, it might be a different story. But he's not. The Steelers can win this, but as far as I'm concerned, they are the underdog, even playing at home.

A few weeks ago, when the Steelers were getting beat in very close games, the Pitt Panthers also lost two very close games. Saturday, Pitt won their bowl game by a couple of points. Omen?

The game that will be broadcast here is Oakland-Cleveland. Funny thing about that game is that both teams, bad teams most of the year, are playing above their record. Cleveland has the edge since they're at home, but this could be an interesting game, which is pretty odd.

The other NFL stories this week are whether New Orleans and Minnesota can go back to winning, playing weaker opponents, and whether Indy is going to expend much effort trying to remain undefeated.

So here's how it happened around here: the Steelers-Packers game was not broadcast locally, but the score was flashed occasionally. I was pleasantly surprised to see the Steelers ahead. But then the fourth quarter began, and they were ahead by six points, and we all know what has usually happened: the Steelers give up points and lose narrowly--maybe by one point. And for awhile--as I watched the ESPN gamecast on the computer, and then just refreshed the score and time left on my homepage--it was happening again, sort of. The Packers kept scoring, but so did the Steelers. And then the Packers had a six point lead with a minute left. Then with 30 seconds. Then with 18 seconds, where the clock stopped. A time out I figured. Refresh: 3 seconds. Another pause. Then I got up. Instead of impatiently waiting for them to lose, I walked around the kitchen envisioning a last second touchdown, reasoning as well that the Steelers were due for some good, rather than bad, luck. Then I returned and refreshed again: Steelers 37, Packers 36, game over.

I had missed one of the great finishes and one of Big Ben's greatest games, one of the great performances in Steelers history and in the NFL this year. It was the game the Steelers needed. While conventional wisdom has switched because of it, giving them the edge over Baltimore next week, I think it brings them even, and the game is a tossup. But this weekend in the rest of the NFL was topsy-turvy, including victories by two of the "terrible teams" the Steelers lost to,and with dramatic swings in the narrative: now New Orleans and Minnesota are "vulnerable," Tennessee and Dallas are surging, San Diego is the new team of destiny. It goes to show that with two weeks left, the narrative is still uncertain. There are even a couple of fairly plausible ways that the Steelers get into the playoffs if they win their final two games, both now against wild card contenders.

NFL Countdown

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sportswriter Ed Bouchette echoed and amplified my last judgment on the Steelers (previous post.) He points out in particular the ages of the starters on defense, and their equally aged backups (meaning they are all in their ancient 30s.) He says there are few young prospects to replace them, and notes the large sums spent on an offensive line that isn't getting the job done. Both present future difficulties, and suggest that improvement isn't going to be easy. So he says that the Steelers of the past decade are over.

He's followed up with a column about the challenge facing head coach Mike Tomlin in "salvaging the season." But objectively it looks pretty bleak. The Steelers' next game is with Green Bay, which earlier in the season didn't seem like a big deal, but now the Packers are on a winning streak, one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Steelers have already lost to Baltimore, who they play again, and Miami is hardly a pushover, especially for a team that fell to Cleveland.

But here's what can be said on the positive side. These losses started after a trip to the thin air of Denver, the loss of a quarterback, and then two games in about ten days. With age a factor in a depleted defense, that all probably contributed, although it's hardly an excuse, especially for lack of coaching preparation. Still, the coaches prepared well for Minnesota and Denver, and maybe they lost their concentration for lesser teams.

So while this is a dangerous time for the Steelers, they are still on paper the team that won the Super Bowl in February. They have a long week to prepare for Green Bay. They are capable of winning this game. If they do--or even if they acquit themselves well--they can face the inevitable changes to come with some dignity, and some order. If they don't, if they give up or play as poorly as they did in Cleveland, then their immediate future is likely to be chaotic.

Though a playoff spot is still mathematically possible, even if they win out it is unlikely. They shouldn't even be thinking about it. They need to concentrate on winning this game. They need an offensive explosion and a defensive shutdown. As unlikely as that is, it is possible.

In any case, they've exposed enough weaknesses that they would be unlikely to get deep into the playoffs. New England is another AFC team that's underperforming, but nobody can count them out for a playoff run to the Super Bowl. Right now the favorites have to be Indianapolis or San Diego vs. New Orleans or Minnesota, with Arizona as the spoiler. In a single game anything can happen, but it does appear that the NFC is a lot stronger this year and should be favored.

Steelers Hit Bottom

If it wasn't for Tiger Woods, the complete collapse of the Pittsburgh Steelers over the past month would be the most extreme and inexplicable story of failure of the sports year.

After ending Minnesota's perfect season, and beating the one-loss Broncos in their home stadium, the Steelers have gradually fallen apart until they hit bottom tonight--because after losing in humiliating fashion to the previously one-victory Cleveland Browns, there's nowhere deeper to fall.

The only good thing about this game was that I couldn't see it. I can only imagine what's going on in Pittsburgh tonight. But what I saw on SportsCenter was amazing--the team that won the Super Bowl in January, couldn't play football: they couldn't tackle, they couldn't block (Big Ben was sacked eight times), they couldn't catch the football. Cleveland scored its first rushing touchdown of the year. The Steelers barely tried to run against a porous run defense.

The defense failed (again), the offense failed, the special teams failed (again) and the coaching failed, big time.

It's been a blur of a fall. Five losses in a row, three of them to some of the worst teams in the NFL, the last one to the absolute worst team. After four consecutive losses, there was only one way to save the season: a 44-0 pasting of the Browns. Instead the Steelers didn't score a touchdown.

After last week's loss to Oakland--a team admittedly on the rise, as I suggested here--I thought it was all but certain that next year would see an all-new coaching staff under head coach Mike Tomlin. The revered defensive coordinator will retire, and the rest will be fired. Now some of those coaches may not make it through this season, and Tomlin's job is in jeopardy for next year. One of the Post-Gazette stories blames the team for lack of effort, for letting Tomlin down. But Tomlin may not escape so easily. Missed tackles, dropped passes, and a loss to the Browns--especially to the Browns--is not going to be overlooked or forgotten.

This isn't going to be an easy fix. Before tonight, the return of a couple of key starters to the defense conceivably could have turned things around. But not anymore. Once things start to unravel like this, all bets are off. It may be years before the Steelers become a good team again. Having lived through the Bubby Brister years, the Cordell Stewart years, the Neil O'Donnell throwing two interceptions to throw the Super Bowl and then leave town years, I'm not looking forward to it. Although the explanations of why all this happened might be interesting.

Central Catholic

I've got a tip for the FBI, CIA and Homeland Security --if you want to track somebody wherever they go, employ a company that works for colleges and high schools, tracking their graduates so fundraising appeals can reach them wherever they are. Truly, no one has been able to follow me from place to place over the years like Knox College and Greensburg Central Catholic High School.

So even now I get "The Centurion" newsletter, which tells me that Central Catholic celebrates its 50th anniversary this year. Which means that it's been 49 years since I started there, thanks so much for reminding me.

I was in the second graduating class. The school started with just one class, and added a new freshman class each year, so it wasn't until I was a junior that the building had its full complement. However, my eighth grade was held in a couple of rooms that weren't being used by the high school, way down at the end of a first floor corridor.

Yes, the school left me with a lifetime of memories, though not all of them the kind that alumni funds would wish. Some of those memories include nightmares, though after four decades, they aren't quite so sharp or scary as they once were. As to their nature, see the collected works of Christopher Durang for a few hints.

But in this newsletter I was struck by a quote from the Bishop at the time of the school's founding, Bishop Lamb (no, I'm not making that up), who apparently said the intention of Central was to be "a shrine of religion and a nursery of patriotism." This actually sounds about right. Back in those days, there was little overt clash between religion class and civics. (Though let's face it, every class was religion class to some greater rather than lesser degree.) I may have been a little more enthusiastic than I was expected to be over Thomas Jefferson and Freedom of Speech, etc. but there was a pretty healthy respect for democracy (though not in the Church, and certainly not in school), due process and political rights.

Some of the nuns were more enthusiastic than others about the New Deal when that bit of fairly recent history came up, or the contemporary beginnings of Civil Rights, though the fact that the President was a Catholic did go a long way. Also, many of us were third or even second generation children of immigrants, and from ethnicities--Italian, Irish and Polish or Slovak--that were then heavily Democratic and felt a great debt to FDR. Not every teacher was all that enthusiastic about the liberal Pope John XXIII and the Vatican Council either, but all they could do was mutter and punish people for no good reason.

But there was a coexistence, a separation of Church and state, and a sense that freedom of religion protected Catholics, and that the primacy of conscience really needed Constitutionally guaranteed freedoms to operate in a normal life. Similarly, the feeling about Darwinian evolution was that it generally did not contradict the doctrine of God as the Creator. It was accepted that the Bible was at times metaphorical, so the "days" of Genesis weren't to be taken literally. (Then again, the Bible was secondary in Catholicism to the teachings of the Church.)

Of course, abortion wasn't an issue then. Abortion was illegal, and it was not even to be spoken of, especially as it apparently had something to do with sex, which as a general topic was not to be spoken of, except when necessary in confession. It, like a lot of other stuff, was a Sin. Period.

So we didn't have that issue blurring the lines. Yet when I see Catholic clergy denying sacraments to elected officials because of their political positions, I do wonder what happened to the Church where the Constitution and conscience were respected even if certain positions or laws were deemed immoral according to Church doctrine, which has changed significantly on issues over the many years.

But the Catholic Church is no longer my concern. I see in the Central newsletter many familiar surnames of students who are probably the grandchildren or grand-whatevers of students I knew in my time there. I don't envy them the battles I had within myself and with the nuns and priests. ( as to their nature, see James Joyce The Portrait of the Artist As A Young Man for some hints-- a book I first read, incidentally, after one of the nuns at Central Catholic slipped it to me covertly.) But I hope enough lip service and especially access is given to the foundation documents of the U.S., and the "profiles in courage" of those who fought for and defended our rights, and at least the ideals of our government. There was a lot of toxicity at Central Catholic in my day, but at least there was some recognition that religion and patriotism aren't identical concepts.

Unfantasy Football

After it was announced just a day before the game that Big Ben wouldn't play due to lingering effects of his concussion, nobody thought the Steelers would win in Baltimore. But they almost did--and the operative and familiar word is almost. Virgin quarterback Dennis Dixon played well and had the Steelers ahead with five minutes left in the game. But the defense failed to hold the Ravens on a third and 23, they tied the game and won in overtime.

The schzoid Steelers emerged again in the past three games, especially in this one. While Hines Ward made big media waves with his confusing comments on Big Ben, implying that he should have played, on the field Ward and the rest of the Steelers worked hard to give Dixon every chance to be successful. But the defense returned to its earlier ways, and failed to hold a lead. Both the Ward comments and the defense are getting a lot of attention in Pittsburgh.

The Post-Gazette writers apparently think their next game with Oakland should be a laugher, but Oakland may surprise them. Once again, everyone is saying that the Steelers have to win out, but they'll have to be a better team than they've been since they beat Minnesota and Denver just to make the playoffs.

One consolation may be that the AFC team that gets into the Super Bowl looks like a sacrificial lamb to the New Orleans Saints or the Minnesota Vikings. Both looked superb this weekend. The Saints destroyed New England completely, and looked exciting doing it. The Vikings were methodical and lethal. I don't think any AFC team is going to beat either one of them, not even Indianapolis, the most likely to get to the Bowl.

The concussion thing... I have to say that watching football, even college football, is getting harder because of the vicious hits and injuries. It's a violent sport but it's getting more violent, as the players are bigger and faster, and they're under pressure to hit harder. Apart from the new concussion policies underway in the NFL, I hope football on all levels is looking at rule changes and at new equipment, particularly better helmets. Meanwhile, it's probably too much to ask but at least it's worth suggesting that television stop valorizing vicious hits, showing them repeatedly in replay and making them top plays.

Win Out

The good news is that the entire AFL North lost on Sunday, including the Cincinatti Bengals. The bad news is that this included the Steelers.

Barring a Bengals collapse, the Steelers' best shot at the playoffs is still a Wild Card, and though nobody can predict the wins and losses, ups and downs of the remainder of this season, for the Steelers to even be in a position to control their own destiny, they probably need to win out.

They are limping into Baltimore, where it's always been tough, after two losses and with important injuries. Big Ben had a "mild concussion" and so has to be considered iffy, though he's practiced and expects to play. His veteran backup, Charlie Batch, is definitely out, with a broken wrist. His backup for this game is Dennis Dixon, untried at the position. But then, so was Ben when he had to come in for an injured starter. Maybe even worse, Troy Polamalu is out. The defense has won without him, but they are so much better and less predictable with him on the field. It's going to be a tough, tense game, and unfortunately it's on Sunday night, so I've got no excuse not to watch it. This is the kind of game they win in a championship season, or even a playoff year.

The big game that they've already talked to death on the sports shows is New England v. New Orleans, the 10-0 Saints' real test. Monday night to boot.

The War of 18-12

The Pittsburgh area is where a lot of the action of the War of 1812 took place, when Cincinnati didn't even exist. But after the Steelers lost to the Bengals by the score of 18-12 on Sunday, overlooking Cincy is no longer possible.

Cincy has been a middling to terrible team for years now, and it got no respect from Pittsburgh sportswriters even this year, but the facts are the facts: with this victory, Cincy is well placed to win the AFC North, the Steelers division, and so the Steelers will probably need a wild card berth to even get into the playoffs.

That isn't much of a stretch, as Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette figures it. It does mean there's little room for error, especially in a schedule heavy on bad to middling teams, with only two games with Baltimore, maybe Green Bay and the final game with Miami as apparently much of a challenge. The Steelers could lose one of the Baltimore games and one more, and still probably be in good shape. But there's really no telling--it's an especially dangerous year, with the difference between very bad teams and very good teams so striking. A lot of 1 and 2 victory teams means a lot more teams with just a few loses. There's no room really for a surprise loss to a bad team, as there was early in the season.

As for Sunday's loss, Coach Tomlin already is addressing the most conspicuous deficiency- special team coverage of kicks. Cinncy became the third team in the past four games to run a kick off back for a TD--the only TD in the entire game. Otherwise, though no one is saying it, Big Ben's off-game, along with his receivers, may well be a consequence of the Denver game the previous Monday, acclimating to that stadium, then reacclimating during the short week. That was about all that really went wrong--the defense was pretty stout, especially since Troy Polamalu left the game in the first quarter with a knee injury. That injury may turn out to be not as serious as first thought, though he's expected to miss the next game at Kansas City.

The Steelers-Bengals might have been the game of the week--though it must have been torture to watch (wasn't broadcast here)--except for the New England-Indianapolis slugfest Sunday night. Two teams without much of a running game but two superb quarterbacks. I saw some of this game, when New England was dominating. But Indianapolis pulled out a one point win to remain undefeated. They may well be a team of destiny this year, but I wouldn't bet against New England. The playoffs are going to be pretty interesting, and the season is barely half over.

As for college, I had to root for Pitt against my mother's team, Notre Dame, and Pitt almost blew it. Although I like USC, how about that Stanford? They are something--I watched Oregon's offense run over USC, then get run over by Stanford, and then this Saturday Stanford ran over USC. 55 points! I wish I'd seen more of that game.

Steelers Crush Orange: The sweetest part of the game was in the fourth quarter, when it became clear the Steelers would win, the Denver fans began abandoning their Mile High Stadium, leaving much of it to the thousands of Steeler fans waving their black and gold. They took away home advantage, big time.

After an uncertain first quarter, a back and forth second, the Steelers began to slowly dominate, until a last drive when a desperate Denver defense couldn't stop the Pittsburgh running game, and Hines Ward literally danced into the end zone for a statement touchdown, and it was 28-10. Perhaps most surprising was the love the ESPNers finally gave the Steelers, with Trent Dilford and his postgame gang admitting that they've overlooked the Steelers all year, glomming onto the flavor of the week instead.

This game sets up the next to a T. Sunday's surprise was Cinncy beating up on the Baltimore Ravens, and taking the division lead--now in a tie with the Steelers, but with two tiebreakers. Next weekend Cinncy comes to Pittsburgh in the game of the year so far. After that, there's only the two games with Baltimore, and the rest is trying not to lose to very inferior teams before ending the regular season at Miami.

This was a great win, on the road in the thin air of Denver, missing 3 starters on defense, and with every aspects of the game contributing: the passing and the running games (Rashard Mendenhall ran for 155 yds), defense against the run and pass, even special teams. Well, I'm going to enjoy watching this one again on tape. It's a keeper.

Predictions After the Fact

I had my election and World Series predictions, which I never got around to posting. I was two of three on elections--I had the Dem in NY 23 but also Corzine in a New Jersey squeaker. Virginia was a gimme.

World Series: obviously if the other team has three wins, you have to win every game, but I felt that if Philly could get through game 6, they had a good chance of winning it all. But I didn't really think Pedro was going to do it, and so far he hasn't--it's still early innings, but Pedro was knocked around for 4 runs. The Phillies have to score in the middle innings before they get to the Yankees short relievers, and even then, with their short relievers it's a drama. So my prediction was either Yankees in 6 or tossup in 7.

As for the NFL, there were more interesting games this week than last, with the Baltimore Ravens dismantling of the Denver Broncos the most interesting. Pittsburgh sportswriters are crowing about the Denver weaknesses it exposed, but it's also possible it was just an off week, a bad game. I still think the Steelers have their hands full Monday night at Denver, though I'm a bit more optimistic about a victory there. Denver is going to be determined, and the Steelers should also feel they need this game, because if the Ravens catch fire, they'll have to worry about getting into the playoffs.

The only games I saw much of were the Saints v. Atlanta (I have to say the Saints look like they're for real) and Minnesota v. Green Bay. I came away from that one with more admiration for the Vikings--I expect them to be in the title game.

NFL's 7th Week was probably the most extreme so far, with Winners running up huge scores over the league's Losers. I can't remember a wider gap between good and bad teams, though there are always a few surprises. One of the closer games was the Steelers victory over Minnesota, 27-17. I had that very score in my head the night before, although I confess I didn't know which team would be on top. I did think that the Steelers' winning strategy might be to bend but not break--to lose time of possession but score more points. That's how it turned out, although never in my wildest could I have seen the defense scoring two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter! Amazing. But a very welcome win, because next they face probably their toughest game of the regular season: Denver, in Denver, after a bye week which is great for rest and getting over injuries, but usually leaves you less than sharp for a quarter or more. But winning over previously undefeated Minnesota, with the most touted quarterback (even in losing, Brett Farve got all the air time on ESPN etc., while winning qback Big Ben got zilch) and the most productive running back in the league (who the Steelers held to 69 yards--once again, nobody has run 100 yards on them.) The Steelers showed that they belong among the elite teams, though the level of competition is so distorted that it's hard to know who is as good as they seem. Some sports writers seem to feel Baltimore is better than their record, and nobody seems to know what to make of Cinncy. One of the undefeateds, New Orleans, has yet to play a really good defense. Dallas seems to be getting better, and you know Indy and New England are going to be there at season's end.

NFL 6th with pre-7th Update

Though not reflected in the score so much, Big Ben and the Steelers offense came up big against the Browns. Ben threw for 417 yards--more than anyone else this week--and the Steelers have the top passing game in the league, although this is probably all news to you if you get your sports news from ESPN or NBC. Once again, the Steelers were ignored. Not even Brady threw for more yards in the Patriots impressive high scoring day in the snow against the Titans.

Ben and the Steelers aren't getting credit, but all the overcompensation in Pittsburgh media, while understandable, may be temporary. The week ended with the Steelers in first place in their division, but both Denver and Minnesota remain undefeated--their next two opponents. If the Steelers can win one of those games they'll be doing well. They could easily lose both, and be back even. But if they win both...well, I'm not sure than even then they'll get respect and airtime from SportsCenter.

Update: A little more respect from Madden 10, which predicts the Steelers defeat Minnesota, and hand them their first loss.

Crunch Time

It really does seem like crunch time on healthcare reform. President Obama's strategy so far seems to have worked--he let the opposition huff and puff themselves out, and the insurance companies expose their own greed. He got bills out of all the committees, including Senate Finance. Now reportedly for the first time, White House reps are working directly with Senators and their staff to craft the final Senate bill, that combines the two that Health and Finance passed.

The crucial element remains the public option, and most especially whether the individual mandate and the public option are linked. TPM reports that Speaker Pelosi, getting the House together for a strong public option in their bill, Pelosi came closer than any member of the Democratic leadership has thusfar to suggesting that the individual mandate should be conditional on the inclusion of a public option.

It's a very dicey situation. The Obama campaign machinery is gearing up to get Congress to pass stuff, but nobody quite knows the White House position on public option and individual mandate. Personally, that constrains me from participating. I'm more likely to work with the groups pressing that linkage between public option and individual mandate. I just don't see forcing people to pay for profit-making health care.

Reports have it that the White House is being sympathetic to the Olympia Snowe proposal for a public option trigger (Kos frontpagers refer to her as President Snowe because she seems to be dictating the final bill.) For awhile I've suspected that some sort of opt-out public option would be what comes out of this--some mechanism for a kind of reverse trigger. The proposal that states could opt out of a public option seemed to get general approval last week, but it doesn't seem many are talking about it now.

Of course the option means that the individual can choose a non-public plan. An opt-out is built in. Not so the individual mandate. It's the smell of forcing everyone to buy insurance that's got the insurance companies so excited, and their greed is such that they are working hard to make sure there is no public plan choice. Not unexpected from a business that considers it an affront when they have to do anything but take in money.

TPM also reports that progressive sources are saying that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is "playing an inside game" to get a strong public option. That's contrary to a lot of earlier stories, but if it's true, it may also indicate that the White House--or at least the President--is pushing it, though at the moment behind the scenes. If Reid decides to include the public option into the final Senate bill, its chances increase dramatically, because he probably won't do it unless he's pretty sure it will pass, and because once it's in, it's very hard to get it out. But the drama could be extended if he doesn't, because then it will be up to the conference committee reconciling the House and Senate bills--and Pelosi is said to be positioning to make sure the option gets into the bill then.

So this is crunch time, but not the final crunch time. Still a ways to go.

Update: Krugman on why insurance company greed may have backfired, and Nancy Pelosi saying pretty much what I've been saying about the public option and individual mandate.

NFL 5th

Okay, so it is turning into a sports blog. Who cares? The NFL season is shaping up in a predictable way, with big winners and big losers and a few in betweens. But the names of the big winning teams were totally unpredicted: for among the unbeaten teams are Denver, New Orleans and Minnesota. With the Bengals close behind, and at the top of its division. The pre-season favorites (New England, San Diego) are struggling, and last year's almost undefeated team, the Titans, is winless so far this year.

The Steelers meanwhile are in between. They survived their game in Detroit with the one-win Lions, but until the last stand the defense made, the fourth quarter collapse continued. At least their loss to Cinncy wasn't totally flukish--the Bengals are beating everybody. But their last minute win over the Titans looks troubling.

They play the hapless Browns next week. But their three games after that will tell the season: Minnesota, and after the bye week, Denver on Monday night, followed by the Bengals. The toughest will be at Denver, partly because it's at Denver, and partly because Denver's strength (fourth quarter finishes) is so far the Steelers' weakness. The return of Troy Polamalu (by Minnesota, looks like) should help a lot, but it doesn't necessarily solve the problems--they had a fourth quarter collapse in the Super Bowl as well, with the defense giving up big plays and points, and the offense unable to sustain drives or score. But they won it, of course. You can't ever count them out. This team is even more mercurial than last year's.

Well, I learned a lot about the NFL watching the postgame shows Sunday. I heard a lot about Dallas, etc. Long analyzes of every game, almost. In the almost category as usual: the Steelers. Barely a mention. The P-G's Ron Cook may compare Big Ben to John Elway, but to the TV talkers, he barely exists. Meanwhile, half the fans in the Detroit stadium were Steelers fans. Steeler Nation. But not worth talking about.

Update: Things got bleaker for the Steelers with a season-ending injury to defensive end Aaron Smith, a key player to run defense. Minnesota in particular must be salivating.

City of Champions Redux

Not that this is going to be a sports, Steelers or Pittsburgh blog, but it seems the right place to say congratulations to Pittsburgh for winning the Sports Illustrated title as best sports city in America. It comes with a magazine cover featuring the Steelers Big Ben with the Penguins Sidney Crosby, in a repeat of the Terry Bradshaw and Willie Stargell cover of 1979, the original City of Champions year.

But I probably wouldn't be blogging about this except for one observation in the Post-Gazette story: Penguins spokesman Tom McMillan -- wearing a giant Stanley Cup championship ring on his right hand -- noted that Penguins, Steelers and Pirates players routinely attend each other's games. "That is really unique. That doesn't happen in most cities," he said.

I think that's correct, unless it's a new thing elsewhere as it is in Pittsburgh: I'm not sure Stargell and Bradshaw had even met before that photo session. But it does sound like Pittsburgh, especially now that the ordinary guy ethos has extended to the upper income precincts. It's interesting but it does seem to be true. There are downsides to a middle class and now upper middle class, largely white collar income level with a working class culture, but this is a good thing, if indeed it's evidence of that and not just that these guys are celebrities, and they don't have much in common with anyone else but other celebrities. No, I think it's more the informality of the town, the easy if not always meaningful sense of community.

Snakebit?

It reminds me a little of the 1980 season. The Steelers, fresh from two Super Bowl victories in a row, won their opener at home. Business as usual. (It was also one of only two Steelers games I've seen in the stadium in my life.) But the 1980 season went downhill from there, and a Monday Night defeat late that year kept them from even being in the playoffs.

And that's how this year started: a first game victory that looked a lot like the Super Bowl victory. And it's been downhill from there, at least for the next two games. But only time will tell if this is a team that has passed its peak, or if this is more like 1976, when a still-great team was swamped with injuries.

What the Steelers have this year is a combination of key injuries--especially to Troy Polamalu on defense--and either inexplicably bad play or just bad luck. They lost late to Chicago on a defensive breakdown and two missed field goals in the fourth quarter by one of the best kickers in the league. They lost in Cinncy thanks to two missed catches in the end zone, a route mistake that led to an interception that ended in a touchdown, and the inevitable defensive miscue.

Though they are back home Sunday, the Steelers are not in great shape versus San Diego. Polamalu is still out, now running back Willie Parker is either out or playing hurt, and the backfield is otherwise hurt or confused. With a safety who is getting burned regularly, the pass rush is more tentative, and they're facing a good throwing quarterback with a superior running back at his side. It doesn't look good.

It's only the fourth game, and injuries to key players are more important at the end of the season and in the playoffs than at the beginning. But there's always the possibility that this isn't going to end, and that it's a snakebit season.

So it hasn't been a great couple of weeks. To avoid the panic-inducing political sites, I was doing my evening sweep of sports sites, especially the Post-Gazette's Steeler page. But not this week. It was more nerve-wracking and panic-inducing than even Huffington Post.

It didn't help that Penn State, Pitt and West Virginia all lost last week as well. USC came back to form, but that's about it. But last night West Virginia looked good winning, and tonight Pitt looked even better. They have two freshman running backs who are fun to watch, and have a real future. So we'll see.

Update: I guess this is why they still play the games. No one predicted that with the absense of Willie Parker, second year running back Rashard Mendenhall would finally have his breakout game, running for more than 160 yards, two touchdowns, and making crucial first downs on the last drive when the Steelers were dangerously close to blowing another game in the fourth quarter. At one point they improbably led the Chargers 28-0, and held on to win 38-28. Division leader Baltimore lost, and with the next two games against weak opponents, suddenly the Steelers season doesn't look so snakebit.

How the Republicans Lost the Olympics

When Chicago lost out in its bid for the Olympics, Republicans crowed. They had loudly complained of President Obama's trip to Copenhagen to speak on behalf of Chicago, and were overjoyed that the U.S. lost.

But among the factors against the U.S. was the continuing xenophobic restrictions on visas and passports into the U.S., instituted by the Bush administration and sanctioned by his Republican Congress:

"However, the triumphant Chicago presentation--the culmination of a $48 million package--had cold water thrown onto it when Pakistani IOC member Syed Shahid Ali correctly noted the significant difficulties facing foreigners seeking entry into the United States... America's visa processing issues have been well-publicized throughout much of the world, with some tourists waiting six months or more to have a 10 minute appointment with a visa examiner in an embassy or consulate to visit America on a vacation. Business visas or those for cultural ambassadors, like artists and athletes, are similarly problematic. "

Or maybe civilized people just aren't interested in taking off their belts and shoes, and surrendering their nail clippers and plastic bottles, just to get on a damn airplane.

The Republicans continue to manipulate the media, but the media is becoming an echo chamber audible mostly to itself. Someone on cable noted today that indeed the Rs are opposing absolutely everything that President Obama or the Democrats propose, say or do, including those areas that used to be nonpartisan. This voice added that it seems to be working for them. But outside the echo chamber, it actually isn't. A Pollster.com analyst concludes that "the Republican brand" is the lowest in popularity in history. A CBS poll R's favorables were a minus 30.

Science Advisor


Thanks to salon for discovering this video. Exposing the hypocrisy of this latest effort in the apparently never-ending attempt to impose Christian beliefs on scientific inquiry and Darwin's 150 year old Origin of Species. There's plenty to argue about concerning current evolutionary theory but it all gets drowned by stuff like this. Anyway, this is fun, sexy, Romanian and cogent--and my nominee for White House science advisor.

The Quotegeist: Backward America

"I can't tell you how many foreign leaders who are heads of center-right governments say to me, I don't understand why people would call you socialist. In my country, you'd be considered a conservative." -- President Obama, Sept. 20, 2009, quoted.

NFL Second Weak

So much for the elite teams: New England, San Diego and the Pittsburgh Steelers all lost their second game of the season (as did the elite USC in the college ranks.) The Steelers loss in Chicago was the kind of anomaly that either doesn't mean anything or looks like the kind of bad luck that stalks a season. When the Super Bowl MVP drops a pass in the end zone, and one of the most reliable kickers in the league misses not one but two field goals, all in the decisive fourth quarter, it demonstrates again what Mean Joe Greene used to observe, that NFL football is in part a dice game.

Old timer Steeler fans may be remembering the 1976 team: arguably the best Steelers team ever, but hounded by bad luck at the end of the season, losing both its key backs for the playoffs and not even making it to the Bowl that it won the previous two seasons, and would win twice more.

On paper Sunday's game looked like an improvement--more of a running game, better OL play, Ben was efficient as well as proficient--but all that didn't result in more than two touchdowns. Plus the defense had its problems, and Pittsburgh sportswriters were finally noting that the defense allowed the Cardinals to score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter and come back to take the lead in the Bowl last year, before the last minute heroics. It's going to take a better effort all around in the first division game in Cincinnati this weekend. The Bengals put up impressive points and won their second game, after all.

Bits

Two polls, CNN and Bloomberg show Obama approval up, and health care reform approval up.

A poll of physicians in the U.S. showed approval for a public option of nearly two-thirds. The approval cut across all demographic, geographical lines. NPR made much of this, and Sohum Parlance has one of several analyses.

The Massachusetts legislature is poised to vote authority to the governor to appoint a Senator to take Senator Kennedy's seat until the special election, or perhaps until 2010. No Kennedy is apparently running for the seat, but no word on who might accept the appointment, which might comes with the proviso that the appointee not run.

Bill Clinton settled another score by endorsing San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome for the Dem nom for governor of CA. Bad blood between Clintons and Jerry Brown, the other (but unannounced) candidate. Since nobody is paying attention to this race yet, it's not clear what this affects except big bucks fundraising.

The Death Party

On 60 Minutes President Obama again lamented that thanks in part to 24 hour cable news (which isn't strictly accurate, unless you include infomercials and prison documentaries) that the loudest voices dominate the political dialogue.

The loudest voice lately was Joe Wilson shouting at him during his speech to Congress, and the louts who are now loudly supporting the shouter. In a way it was inevitable, especially after the Daily Kos brigades, perhaps appropriately but certainly predictably, expressed their umbrage by raising money for Wilson's electoral opponent. Then the Rabid Right screamed forth to raise money for Wilson. There may not be a causal link, but it's happened before.

It was the talk of Rabid Right talk radio, and also (reportedly) of black talk radio, where the first outburst calling a President a liar in such an official setting was made by a white southern male to the first American American President were judged not coincidental. Before long, white commentators were voicing that same suspicion. Maureen Dowd did so in the Sunday NY Times, and E. J. Dionne in Monday's Washington Post. Meanwhile, Wilson, seeing which side his bread is buttered on, has more or less withdrawn his apology, and looks upon the imminent possibility of a House motion to disapprove or censure him as more grist for the fundraising mill.

The Saturday gathering of teabaggers in Washington was a signal event, in the ugliness and racism of signs and remarks, and in the baldfaced lying involved in bragging of a crowd of between one and one and a half million, when reputable sources estimated it in the tens of thousands, well under the size of the crowd in Ohio that watched the Buckeyes fall to USC.

But what these folks lack in numbers they can make up in violence, such as the fourfold increase in threats to the President that the Secret Service is reportedly receiving. Or the hatespeech uttered by a preacher in Phoenix a day before the President's visit in which he expressed from his Christian pulpit his desire for the President's death, which was heard by a man who showed up at that speech carrying a gun.

I'm beginning to wonder just how far this racism extends. Because I can't believe that this incident would have gone by with so little official notice or consequence, had the President been George W. Bush.

What this rising tide of ugliness portends has many facets. One is the shameless use of baseless lies--the Big Lie comes to America bigtime--which is related to another that I intend to get into at proper length, the elevation of ignorance to supreme virtue. But for the moment, I give you E. J. Dionne's emphasis on what this says about the American character--something that President Obama spoke about the other night.

Dionne quotes Rush. "This administration is not your average presidential administration," Limbaugh declared. "This is not a garden party. This is not a lecture at Harvard or any other university. We are in the process, we are in the midst of an administration that is trying to totally tear down the institutions and traditions that have made this country great."

Dionne then asks: And what evidence is there that Obama is tearing down our "institutions and traditions"? There is none, unless you see it as an affront to our traditions that we have our first president whose father was born in Kenya, or that the American people decided to elect someone other than a conservative as our commander in chief. The far right has decided that extremism in assailing Obama is no vice.

But Dionne's main point is about what made Joe Wilson so angry--the President said it was not true that "our reform efforts would insure illegal immigrants." But Wilson and his ilk are maddened by even the phantom possibility of some bleeding illegal getting free stitches or emergency surgery, or some sick illegal child getting treated for flu. Dionne mentions the practical consideration of public health that affects everyone, but he focuses on the character issue: " But I am not at all at peace with the fact that the one issue about which a member of Congress chose to rise up and accuse our president of being a liar related to the charge that our chief executive wasn't doing enough to build walls between illegal immigrants and health coverage. "

So with the White Supremacist Party, who needs Death Panels? Just let them all die. It's the Death Party now. That's all they're about.

Game On

Some loonie congressman shouts at the President, essentially calling him a liar, and so soaks up the video on cable and the attention on the blogosphere. But long after Joe Wilson is a trick trivia question, President Obama's speech is likely to be remembered.

In limited checking of TV etc, I've heard views on it as his greatest speech, his most emotional speech, the greatest speech a President has given to a joint session, etc., including from some unlikely suspects, like David Brooks. E. J. Dionne liked its detail and fighting spirit. Mike Lux wrote: "I have been listening closely to Presidential speeches for about 35 years now, have watched quite a few oldies but goodies from the past, have even contributed ideas to a fair share of speeches in the Clinton years, and I am sitting here thinking that was one of the very best Presidential speeches I have ever heard. JFK's inaugural and a couple of FDR's best are the only ones I can think of that moved me so much."

These and other similar responses suggest it's immediate effect already is to galvanize the wavering Obama people, but it also gave some moderate Democrats and at least one moderate Republican the room they need to support reform ( Sen.Olympia Snow praised it and Sen. Ben Nelson called it a gamechanger), while providing both common philosophical ground and a call to arms. For a speech so laden with arguments for relatively specific proposals, it was a masterpiece.

Here's a link to text and video, or you can wander over to Dreaming Up Daily for extended excerpts.

The next few days will be crucial, but I think it will make a difference. And the stronger Obama is, the more likely a public option will survive--although I'm guessing that 4 year window is where the maneuvering is going to be. Something like a reverse trigger: the public option takes effect in four years, unless private insurers are following the new law and are offering competitive prices. Anyway, it's on.

The Barack is back! From President Obama's Labor Day speech in Ohio, where the rubber meets the road on health care.

The Nonsense of August

Two days before President Obama's address to Congress signals the final push for a health care reform, the Political Wire says this:

As everyone gets back to work on Capitol Hill, it's increasingly clear that President Obama survived a brutal August and that even under a worst case scenario he'll be able to sign a meaningful health care reform bill.

Marc Ambinder : "After August, conservatives have exhausted their repertoire of arguments and many of their demagogic tricks. Public support for significant health care reform as something worth doing remains high. Support for Obama's plan remains unchanged -- didn't grow, certainly, but didn't decline. Support among Democrats remains at 90%. Obama's message tomorrow night will be one that dovetails with what the American people believe: it's important to get health care reform done."

Jonathan Chait: "Despite all of the setbacks and all of the missed opportunities -- despite this train wreck of a month -- the situation remains remarkably similar to what it was before the recess. Significant health care legislation is likely to pass, particularly if Obama manages to give a good speech on Wednesday night. And while the possibilities for what that legislation might accomplish have certainly diminished, mostly for worse, it's not clear how much they have diminished -- and to what extent progressives may yet have the power to change that fact."Most important, Democrats are coming to realize that failing to pass a bill when they control the House and Senate would be political suicide -- just like it was during the 1990s.

The Pittsburgh Steelers ended their preseason with their second straight win, this time with the younger players trying to make the team beating up on Carolina 21-10. Several of these young players did themselves good, especially Stefan Logan, seen above high fiving the crowd after his 80 yard punt return, which apparently sealed the deal: he's made the team, and may give the Steelers a weapon they didn't have last year. Another offensive standout was running back Isaac Redman, who punched in another goal line touchdown. The Steelers are so deep at running back however that the local experts are saying Redman is not likely to make the team, which I find hard to believe. He's a fan favorite already. I'm betting they find room for him.

Well, the Steelers are reigning Super Bowl champs but one thing hasn't changed: they get no respect from ESPN. This year just like last year their games are hardly covered, usually last if they make Sportscenter at all. The yak is all about Brett Fauvre, Michael Vick, ad nauseam, and the favorite going into the season is Hollywood Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Regardless of picks, let's remember accomplishment, and the Steelers have only strengthened themselves since January. It's disgusting how little attention or respect ESPN pays the Steelers.

As for the upcoming season, the only thing that would surprise me from the Steelers is cold efficiency. It would be a relief, though. The NFL is looking more like baseball year by year, divided between the elite teams and the bad teams. It's still true that on any given Sunday any team can win, but for a bunch of teams that's going to be a stretch. The Steelers are among the elite teams this season. They've added some potentially exciting players on both sides of the ball, and addressed several weaknesses, although the o line (especially in terms of depth) remains the biggest question mark. Which means Big Ben will probably be improvising a lot again this year, so anxiety awaits again. They start the season next Thursday against the Tennessee Titans.

Update: Redman was cut, but he was signed to the practice squad so he's still a Steeler. Apparently the Steelers are still looking for an experienced O line sub, but didn't sign anybody off waivers. It looks like all the key players are healthy for the opener. Should be quite a show, against a tough team.

Today's Panic (Read Right Away or It Might Be Over)

This feeding-on-itself political news environment wouldn't be so bad if it didn't infect people with panic. It's to be expected that the various sides on the healthcare debate are going to jockey for position, but what's more than a little crazy is the panic some folks express, their instant disillusion with Obama, so disappointed they'll never believe anybody again, etc. Meanwhile, President Obama's speech is not until next Wednesday. It's a little too much like the mindless panic of the Rabid Right.

I've read the headlines and the summaries for way too many accounts and speculations, and just about the only one that passes the smell test so far is this one from Ambinder, and even it is unlikely to be accurate in all details. There have been rumors and panics a half dozen times about Obama abandoning the public option (as it's called) and each time he's reaffirmed his support. I don't expect this time to be significantly different.

I will add this to the argument: I don't see how it is possible--or even legal--to make it a law that everyone must buy health insurance, and not at least offer the choice of a public nonprofit plan. I can't think of a precedent for a law requiring that people buy the product of a private for profit company. People are required to pay taxes, but even that requirement makes some allowances. So I'm not worrying about socialism. I'm worrying about government mandated capitalism.

Update: Apparently the individual mandate is based on laws requiring auto insurance, available only from private companies. But you are required to buy auto insurance only if you own a motor vehicle. You can choose not to own one. To me this is still a stretch.

Counternews

You've been hearing what a terrible August it was for the Obama presidency. Some of what you might not have heard, including secret news that was actually published in the last few days:

--the Wall Street Journal admits the Obama Recovery Act is working to improve the U.S. economy.

--even the AP must note that auto sales boomed in August. Thanks in no small part to the Obama incentive program. (Otherwise known as the clunker program.)

--FEMA has been revitalized and is getting very high marks. In New Orleans. From, among others, Governor Bobby Jidal. He of the unfortunate GOP response to the State of the Union. He who said he'd turn down Recovery money.

--Salon reported that the U.S. is brokering what may turn out to be a breakthrough in the Middle East. In case you missed it, Obama and Sec. of State Clinton sent former President Clinton to North Korea, and he not only got those U.S. journalists out, but sudden progress is being made on nuclear talks, and on North/South Korea relations. Iran has also indicated a new willingness to cooperate with nuclear inspectors.

---On health care, with all the noise and jockeying, the GOPer fringe may have blown their wad in August, town halls are becoming support health care reform events, and Obama still has the votes in Congress.

But hey, keep this to yourself. Wouldn't want cable news to catch on.

Massive fires are only the most visible reason that California is a state of emergency. See post below.

State of Emergency

The Terminator returned from the East Coast to declare California in a state of emergency, due to the tremendous fires in the L.A. area. Apart from the immense damage, the loss of life (2 firemen so far) and the cost of trying to fight them (with no success so far) these fires threaten the Mount Wilson Observatory, and have caused the evacuation of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, which means among other things that the Mars rovers have stopped in their tracks.

That the effects of the CA fires extend to Mars is just one of the operative metaphors for this state's plight. Schools are reopening, and starting to cope with budget cuts, and no one involved in them--students, teachers, administrators apart from the highest ones--is being affected. Mandatory furloughs and across the board pay cuts are just the beginning.

The spiral downward is accelerating due to these cuts. The CA economy, particularly hard-hit because of high participation in the housing market bubble, started to falter, and to send less in taxes to Sacramento. Refusing to raise revenues, the Terminator terminated or disemboweled programs mostly for the poor, old and sick. Very heroic. Already the CA economy appears resistant to the improvements seen elsewhere--the official unemployment rate rose to nearly 12%, the highest in more than 60 years. Despite the federal recovery act, construction jobs fell, as did tourist related jobs, the combination hitting the Latino community hardest. But that was even before the decline in pay for state workers, and the loss of jobs because of cut programs. Those effects are now rippling through the economy as well as the society.

Since the Terminator gave in so bravely to the quaint but unaffordable anti-gubment hysteria, the state is helpless when it is clear that government is going to be needed more than ever--and these fires are Exhibit One.

First of all, look at them. These are very powerful fires. And as this eloquent diary attests, this is not even yet fire season. These fires aren't supposed to happen in August, not in southern California. But the entire southwest is parched, in the midst of a multiple year drought. The Climate Crisis is coming to get them, and it's not going away.

Just as these fires threaten the air, the water, the business and public resources of the region and beyond, California's economic tailspin will affect the rest of America and the world economy. But the Terminator plus the perfect storm of a helpless state government and a total leadership vacuum in the state, together forestall much hope that California can fix itself any time soon.

Kennedy Farewell: The Music

As was repeated (and shown repeatedly in the retrospective films that played over (and over) the past few days), Senator Ted Kennedy loved music, and music was a big part of all of the memorial events. There were songs at the Kennedy Library, including hymns and several choruses of "When Irish Eyes Are Smiling," with Irish tenors outdoing each other each time.

The most impressive music came at the funeral Mass. Yo Yo Ma played the Sarabande of Bach's Cello Suite #6, which if I'm not mistaken has particular meaning for the musician, who played it for his father shortly before his death. In any case, he played it memorably, with evident feeling. Placido Domingo sang Franck's "Panis Angelicus," the Tanglewood Chorus sang Brahm's "Let Nothing Ever Grieve Thee," and mezzo-soprano Susan Graham sang a wonderful "Ave Maria" by Schubert.

But I was especially taken by the organ music at the very beginning, as Kennedy's casket entered. The processional hymn, which began a bit later, was "Holy God, We Praise Thy Name" but I couldn't tell if the organ music was another version of it, but whatever it was, it was beautiful, mysterious.

The most notable addition to the day's music was at the Capitol, after the official prayers and singing. As the hearse was about to leave, the crowd across the street spontaneously began singing "America the Beautiful."

But the musical moment I will remember came at the very end, at the Arlington National Cemetary, in the most impressive solo version of Taps I've ever heard. It was not an ordinary rote rendition--it was very musical, with pure tones and full of feeling.