The State of Golden

 In the fifth game of the finals, the Golden State Warriors did what they had to do: when Boston concentrated on stopping Steph Curry, other shooters stepped up, particularly Andrew Wiggins.  Klay Thompson and J. Poole had good games. Draymond Green returned to form, especially on offense.  But the difference for the Warriors was defense. That's where they made the adjustments, to which the Celtics had no answer.  Gary Payton II strengthened the defense in the last several games, but it was really a team effort.  Golden State used quick hands and positioning to make up for their apparent deficiencies.

After this victory, the Warriors were very confident about game six.  Coach Steve Kerr guided them to closing out the series in this game in Boston. They were focused on it.

After the Dubs were down 2 games to 1, Klay Thompson said he was getting 2015 vibes.  That was the first championship year, when the Warriors came back from a 2-1 deficit to win the series in six games with three straight victories.  That's exactly what they did again in 2022.  In 2015, the difference was largely Andre Iguodala, on offense and defense, reflected in his MVP trophy in that series.  It seemed pretty clear after the fifth game in that series that the Warriors were going to win in six.  In 2022 there was no easily named difference-maker in these last several games, but the scores were remarkably similar--the Warriors were in the low 100s, the Celtics in the low 90s.   It was team defense, plus several of the new Warriors--like Wiggins and Poole--figuring out the Celtic defense.  And of course, the sustained brilliance of Steph Curry.

In fact, the Warriors seemed so confident and the media so unanimous in predicting a 6th game victory that it was all set up for Boston to come roaring back.  The pundits may not have known anything, but the Warriors did. Boston came fast out of the gate but by the beginning of the second quarter, Golden State turned 21 unanswered points into a lead that grew to be insurmountable pretty early.  The struggles of the past three years came flooding into Curry's consciousness, so that he was in tears and may have actually blacked out in the closing moments.  

This year, Steph Curry set the all-time career record for 3s, won the MVP for the All-Star Game and the Western Conference Finals, and was the unanimous choice for MVP of the Finals.  The Warriors won its fourth championship in eight years, with the same core players--Steph, Klay and Draymond--who together with Andre I. had been together at Golden State for a decade. 

After the series was over, one player after another--starting with Andrew Wiggin--said they absolutely wanted to return to the Warriors.  Kerr was about to lose two of his assistant coaches to head coaching jobs elsewhere, but at the last second, one of them decided he was better off being an assistant at Golden State.  That speaks to the team and the culture. The closeness of the players, the mentorships of the veterans and the example of hard work and unselfish play, along with management's commitment to shared responsibility and complete support, with an eye to the long game--those are some of the components of that culture. Steph Curry is its embodiment. The team culture was the bedrock upon which these championships were built.  They'll have a parade tomorrow, and soon enough will be getting ready to go for more.

Finals Fifth Game Preview

  Depending on circumstances, there can be several crucial games for one team or the other in an NBA playoff series, especially the Finals.  But particularly in a 2-2 series, the fifth game is nearly always decisive.  The winner of the fifth game most often goes on to win the championship.

 The Warriors and Celtics are tied 2-2.  Each has won a home game and a game away. By winning the fourth game, the Warriors reestablished home court advantage: the 5^th and (if needed) 7^th game will be played on the Golden State court.

 But Boston has established a pattern in the playoffs of alternating between wins and losses regardless of the court, and not losing two in a row.  Since they won the first game of this series, they can win the championship without winning two games in a row.

 A Finals series is often about game-to-game adjustments, which also factor in this series.  Those adjustments, sometimes reflected in decisions during the game, depend on the coaches.  So far Steve Kerr has been outcoached in the third game, arguably the first as well, but outcoached Boston in the fourth game decisively.

 By the fifth game however, the teams and the coaches know a lot more about their opponent.  We won’t know what they learned until it is reflected in game outcome. Sometimes an adjustment even this late is decisive.  But the options are often more limited.

 So what about this fifth game?  Boston has been unable to defend Steph Curry for an entire game—it’s possible they will do something more radical to keep Curry from operating with the ball, and dare the rest of the Warriors to beat them.  But even though Steph got the major praise for carrying the team to a fourth game victory—often said to be his best Finals game ever—there were other good signs for the Warriors.  

Both Andrew Wiggins and J. Poole showed signs of figuring out the Boston defense.  Wiggins was outstanding at rebounding, and Looney had another solid game.  And in a very good sign, Klay Thompson played really good defense in the fourth quarter, and had the afterburners to make shots down the stretch. And Bjelica, one of the Warriors who hasn’t played much in the series, showed he can defend Boston's star Tatum.

 Fan exuberance is one thing, but the Warriors can’t go into the fifth game taking for granted they will win because they are at home, or because Steph Curry is having a brilliant series.  But apart from that, the Warriors have some momentum. Draymond Green is due to relax into a consistent game on both sides of the court. The Warriors who aren’t Steph—especially those who showed signs in the fourth game-- are ready to show their appreciation to him by being brilliant in game 5.  The Warriors will have to win two games in a row at some point to win the series.  This would be a good time to do it.

 On the other side, Boston’s Jason Tatum and J. Brown are capable of breakout games, and have had them in the playoffs.  They will likely be the keys for Boston in the fifth game.  Tatum in particular will want to slap down the Steph as MVP narrative that continued in the days after game 4.

 Another possible key: Boston’s center Robert Williams, coming back from injury and making a defensive difference, tweaked a knee and left the fourth game early.  He may or may not play in the fifth game, and may or may not be effective.  That could be huge for the Warriors getting to the basket.

 There are any number of ways this game could go. Neither team will win the series outright with a victory in the fifth game, and these two teams in particular break more rules than they follow.  But the loser will likely find a very hard road ahead.

The Epic Warriors, the Warriors' Epic

 

In winning the Western Conference Finals at home in the fifth game, the Golden State Warriors displayed all aspects of their team character and their particular style or game.  So now before the Finals start--even before their opponent is known (the East series is going to a 7th game) there's time to reflect on their epic journey--and I use that word "epic" for a reason.

In post-game interviews, Warriors' players and Coach Kerr all knew the story. Three seasons ago, on the brink of winning their third championship in a row, with their finals' star Kevin Durant coming back dramatically from injury, the story took a sudden, Greek drama turn.  Durant suffered an even more serious injury and was out for the decisive games.  But in the sixth game, Klay Thompson rose to the occasion and was driving the Dubs to victory--when he fell to a serious injury, and did not return.  The Warriors were spared a 7th game blowout when Steph Curry missed a 3 point shot at the end of the game.

Then Kevin Durant decided not to return to Golden State.  Then after recovery and rehab from his injury, Klay Thompson suffered an even more serious injury.  Then Steph Curry broke his hand.  The odds against all this happening in this way are so astronomical that it qualifies as a weird kind of fate.

Then the Warriors made it through their worst season, leading the league in losses when just a few years earlier they'd led it in wins.  Then after more personnel changes they struggled through another Covid year, but started to jell in the last 20 games.  In another year, they might have squeaked into the playoffs but the league was trying out a new "play-in" system, and they lost those play-in games.  (Oddly, something similar would happen to the baseball San Francisco Giants.)

All through this the Golden State team culture was tested but held together.  Individuals (Klay, Draymond, and surely others who don't talk about it) had their doubts, about the team, about themselves.  Dark nights of the soul. 

 Klay Thompson, universally popular among fans and NBA players and the media, slowly worked his way back.  When he returned this year, Draymond Green was already injured and would be out for weeks.  When Green came back, Steph Curry was injured in a game with Boston on a play that Coach Kerr thought was questionable.  For awhile it looked as if the struggle to get to the playoffs might come up short.  But then the team started winning, and at the very end, the core players--Steph, Draymond and Klay--were on the court together, not just for the first playing time this season, but the first time in over two years.

They discovered themselves in the playoffs--that is, the team that is now, with the new arrangement of castoff veterans and young players, including two not yet twenty years old.  One virtue of the fractured year or two was that a lot of players got to play.  They learned, and the coaches learned about them.  In these playoffs, several of them were the difference in specific games, and all of them were important to final victory.  But several of them were also lost to injury from one series to the next, so other players had to step up--either starters like Kevon Looney and Andrew Wiggins--or other young players who hadn't had many minutes.

So now, after all that, the Golden State Warriors are back in the finals for the sixth time in eight years.  The style they play now based on their personnel is as much fun to watch as their 2015 and 16 teams. But their game of those years, which changed the NBA (so they now face teams that take more 3 point shots than they do) has itself changed, become even more dynamic.  

This climb, this return, this redemption, at this level is our version of the epics of heroes that support the cultures of the world.  They may not be those kinds of heroes exactly (though they serve important social and cultural functions; for it was Steve Kerr, after all, who made the most watched, most passionate statement on the Texas school shooting nightmare, over any political figure) but this epic story also has the virtue of being true.

Either East opponent looks formidable, particularly the Boston Celtics, with their bullying style.  But the Warriors have momentum (and will be more rested) and they may well be the healthiest all year--all the players who missed games in the playoffs could well be available for the finals.  They seem to be peaking as a team.  And they will have home court.

But even if they don't win the championship, this season is already a success--an epic story, and for a change, a heartening one.

On Their Way

 With three victories in the first three games in the Western Conference Finals, the Golden State Warriors are discovering themselves as a team of championship potential.  They have neutralized the Mavericks' advantages and are playing at a tempo and with an intensity that matches the moment.  They dominated the first game with offense and rebounding.  They came from 19 points behind in the second game with smothering defense and offense at the basket.  

By the time they got to Dallas, they were imposing their will.  The Mavericks tried to win the second half of the second game with the sharpshooting of 3s that won the first half, but couldn't do it.  So for the third game, the first at home, they were determined to go inside more.  But that didn't work either.  The very impressive Luka Doncic could get 40 points a game, but the Warriors were just disruptive enough--and rebounding those misses--to get their offense going at their own pace.  If Dallas came out to stop 3s, they went inside.  If they clogged up the basket area, they shot threes.

Kevon Looney was the rebounding hero of the closeout game against the Grizzlies, and had a career high 21 points in the second game against Dallas.  In the third game Andrew Wiggins added to his stellar defense on Doncic a big night on offense, with 27 points and the monster dunk of the playoffs.  Both got player of the game honors, but the thread of excellence that runs through these three games is Stephan Curry, now very likely to receive the first conference finals MVP.

Perhaps the most heartening stat for Warriors fans in the third game was only 10 turnovers, their one conspicuous vulnerability.  The Warriors are 3-0 in this series, without spectacular games from Klay Thompson or Poole (yet both hit key shots.) Either of them can explode at any time.  The Mavs have no big man answer, and Looney is dominant on the defensive end.  

While a sweep is likely, and no more than a five game series very likely, the Eastern Conference Finals look very much like they could go 7 or at least 6.  Both Miami and Boston have already won a game on the road, so home court may not be much of a factor.  It looks like it's game by game.

Warriors Advance

 The Golden State Warriors won their second round playoff series against Memphis in six games.  They had taken a 3-1 lead into the fifth game at Memphis and were blown out.  Coach Steve Kerr, who was out with Covid, told the team not to chase a victory in the fifth game--just execute the game plan.  They did neither, but they definitely chased a victory at home in the sixth game, with the first team playing more minutes than ever before.  They did not want to return to Memphis.  It took heroic games by Klay Thompson and especially Kevon Looney, and a fourth quarter run led by Steph to put it away.

The Grizzlies had embarrassed themselves by charging without any foundation that a Warrior player had caused the injury of their young star, Ja Morant.  Then the same Memphis player who had been suspended for a game for his flagrant 2 chop of a defenseless Gary Payton, breaking his elbow, committed another blatant flagrant foul in the sixth game, flinging Steph Curry to the floor.  If the NBA becomes any more like the NFL, it will ruin the game of basketball.

Now Golden State plays in the Western Conference Finals against a very tough Dallas team, that combined smothering defense and flashy offense to bury the Phoenix Suns, the team with the best season record, at Phoenix in the seventh game of their series.  Late in the game Dallas led by more than 40 points, and at halftime led by almost 50.  

The Warriors have the significant advantage of home court, but it's only a strategic advantage if you keep it.  As usual, the first game on Wednesday is very important.

The other seventh game on Sunday was another shocking beatdown: the Boston Celtics humiliated last year's champion Milwaukee.  The Celtics have to survive another series, but they seem to me to be the Warrior's most formidable potential opponent.  That is, if they get past their actual opponent of Dallas, and I'd say that's even money right now.  This Warriors team is still discovering itself.

War on the Warriors

 Remember basketball?  It can be a beautiful game, especially as the Golden State Warriors play it.  What happened in Memphis in the second game of the playoffs' second round was not basketball.  It was the Memphis team (and their fans) going to war.

I don't for a minute buy the description of the attack on Gary Payton II that resulted in a serious injury that takes him out of the playoffs as "not intentional," or the elbow that bloodied Draymond Green and closed one eye for days as "inadvertent," any more than were the punches to Steph Curry.  Hitting Payton in a defenseless moment, who just happened to be the primary defender on the Grizzlies' top scorer, ending his ability to play in the series, sure, that was an accident.  As was the hit on Green, another defender of that top scorer and the field general for the offense,  just a coincidence.

A one game suspension for one player is not enough.  The only effective league deterrent is forfeit of a game.  But even that isn't really enough, because Payton is out for the rest of this series--which happens to be his most important series because of his ability to guard Morant.

The league needs to settle this down now.  The Commissioner or another official should attend the next game in a very visible way, to observe what's going on.  The better referees should be reassigned to this series, not the crew that officiated in Memphis, especially in the first game, when (among other errors) they made way too much of Green's foul, and set up this escalating retribution.

Unfortunately not much can be done about the blood-thirsty Memphis crowd, except to silence them with resounding defeat. 

Onward with the Golden State Warriors

 The plain fact about the Golden State Warriors in the playoffs is that this is a team no one has seen before. Comprised of veterans with championships and acknowledged greatness, and younger players of immense potential, it is nevertheless a new team.  With key players getting injured and returning from injury throughout the second half of the season, this is a team that has never played together before, until the playoffs.  That's also because the players who got more minutes than they otherwise would have with one star or another out, are themselves different players because of that.

The Warriors won their first round series against Denver and last year's (and perhaps this year's) regular season MVP, with two blowout wins and two character-builders--three if you count the one they lost.  They get an extra day or two of rest on their next opponent, and they are still healthy.  Best of all, Steph Curry came back in this series with a quick return to top form.  He took over the last minutes of the deciding game.

Now suddenly the Warriors are the favorites to win the NBA championship.  Excessive enthusiasms one way or another have become the hallmark of sports coverage and the echo chamber of sports pundits.  And it's true that this Warriors teams, like some of the championship years, at times seems otherworldly.  When they are playing well this team is more dazzling and fun to watch than any other.

But they are a new team, and prudence suggests their crowning after one round is premature.  I'm a Warriors fan but I have no idea how this team will fare against any of their opponents, because this particular team has never played them.

If you're going by the fact that no other team in the West won their first round--usually the easiest for the higher seed--in five games, that shows vulnerabilities but not necessarily to the Warriors.  However, with the decline of Phoenix in the playoffs, it's not a bad bet that the Warriors will emerge champions of the West, ultimately.

But in the East, the Boston Celtics didn't just win in five--they swept a team many pundits picked to win it all, the Brooklyn Nets.  The Celtics specialize in brutal defense--and I mean brutal in both senses of the word.  If they come out of the East, the Warriors will likely be tested.

But that's a month away.  These Warriors are still a new team in the second round, and if they get through that, the third.  It's going to be exciting--maybe too exciting--but anyway, exciting.

Suddenly the Warriors

 

To expect success in the playoffs, a team needs to go into them healthy and with momentum.  There are exceptions but that's the rule.

With a few weeks left in the season, the Golden State Warriors had neither.  Still trying to adapt to the loss of their latest injured star (Steph Curry), they were losing, and to much weaker teams.  After two years recovering from injuries, Klay Thompson was slowly rounding into form, and after his injury, Draymond Green admitted he wasn't playing well.  Meanwhile, the Warriors looked like they would drop further down in seeding, and miss any home court advantage.

But then things started to click.  The Warriors started winning, Green and Thompson became brilliant again, and the team secured the three seed with a five game winning streak.  It looked like Curry would be back for the first game of the playoffs, at home against Denver.

Until the playoffs, the core of stars--Curry, Thompson and Green--had played together for less than 20 minutes total this season.  But during all this turmoil, the younger and newer players got plenty of court time, lots of attention from the coaching staff, and all kinds of game experience.  Some found solid roles.  Two in particular--Jonathan Kuminga and Jordan Poole--were learning so much that they seemed like different players each game.  Andrew Wiggins, who played himself into the All Star game in the first half of the season, was up and down, but was starting to settle in as the season ended.  By then, Jordan Poole in particular was emerging as a star, a younger version of Steph.  Once again, this is a team that is the most fun to watch.

 Of course Coach Steve Kerr could not have planned it this way, but he did foresee its advantages.  It was clear from earlier in the season that the Warriors have now assembled a very talented group beyond the starters.  So when the playoffs began, Poole was starting--and starring--while other players were ready to make the most of their minutes to help the team.

Only time will tell, but it is possible that this is a better team than it was with Kevin Durant.  After two overpowering victories in the first round, a gutty win in the third game, and a sweep within sight, people were taking another look at the championship potential of the Warriors--not next year but this year.

As good as the Warriors were in the first half, when they had the league's best record, they are better now.  They look devastating against the Denver Nuggets.  No one could know what the chemistry would be like when various combinations of this core group played together--Steph, Klay, Draymond, Poole, Wiggins, Kevon Looney and Andre Igoudala.  But it's been immediate.  There might have been a question about Curry returning from his foot injury, ready to play--but once he became comfortable with the pace of the game, the rest seemed to provide him with the energy in the second game to score more points in the briefest time than anyone else.

Right now it looks like the only thing that can stop these Warriors is... the same thing that has stymied them for the past two years: injuries.  The playoffs are brutal.  It's going to take that other necessary element to succeed in the playoffs: good fortune.  They've had enough of the other kind.   

The NFL, the Super Bowl and the Game

 The NFL is in such deep shit that it gives a new meaning to Super Bowl.  Fired Dolphins coach Brian Flores is suing the entire league for a pattern of racism in hiring, but his supporting allegations seem to go beyond that.  His charge that owners run the league "like a plantation" only articulates in a very public way what some sportswriters and others have been saying for years, though sometimes more obliquely. 

Meanwhile, the Washington football club and its current management have not gotten out from under their troubles with a less than popular new team name.  As one article recently summarized the situation, the league is in general disrepute, but it rakes in so much cash and the owners are so absurdly wealthy that they feel invulnerable.

One reason is the strange centrality in American culture of the Super Bowl.  Why is it a national holiday and obsession on a par with Christmas--or exceeding it?  It's not often even a very good football game.  But it's self-generating hype at this point, with TV heavily invested.  And given the pandemic and the perilous state of politics, we are desperate for distraction.  We'll ignore insurrection, mob insanity, war, death, racism, anything.  Let's wallow and rate the multi-million dollar commercials.

And so we're into it again.  But is this year's winner even in doubt?  The LA Rams are a very wealthy team that spent heavily on the best veteran players it could buy precisely to be in this game, in its own stadium. It's a team that not only feels it belongs in the Super Bowl, it feels entitled.  Meanwhile, the Bengals are the unlikely opponent, that nobody predicted would be there, and some refuse to even believe they are.

So it's a great setup for a David and Goliath story, with the All American boy Joe Burrow as the miracle making hero.  He is certainly a highly gifted quarterback with an almost magical quality.  His problem is that in order to throw a pass, he has to be standing up.  The Rams have an overpowering defensive line and pass rush, the Bengals a not very good offensive line.  Maybe Burrow spends just enough time not flat on his back to squeak out a victory in a low-scoring game, as he has before in these playoffs.  But it seems much more likely that the best possible outcome is that he survives this game without serious injury.  The Rams may not score much either, so I expect this to be a ugly game.

The retirement of Tom Brady and the Steelers' Big Ben symbolize the changeover to Burrow and the other young quarterbacks that run a different kind of game.  While not quite as thoroughly as Steph Curry changed NBA basketball, these exciting young quarterbacks are what could save the game on the field.  But it's in the executive suites that the smelly problems persist.

 It didn't take long for everybody to forget concussions and serious injuries that could be avoided with rule and equipment changes.  That responsibility also belongs to the league leadership.  But they don't really care.  Nor does the sports media that feeds off the mayhem.  They provide the deodorant.  Besides, it's more difficult to get upset about violence in football when  it's ominously clear that daily life in America is becoming more violent.  While the bodies crashed in the LA stadium during the last game, a visiting fan was beaten and killed outside.  It isn't just the NFL that's in deep shit these days.

They Might Be Warriors

 The San Francisco Giants' great star Buster Posey announced his retirement last week, formally ending an era.  He chose to go out on a high note: leading his team to the best record in MLB, hitting for average and with power as in his best years, and perhaps more than ever, handling each pitcher from behind the plate to maximize their game.  Several years back, the thought was to move Posey to another position to extend his career, but he's just too good as a catcher, and the pitchers depended on him.

Posey left with MLB and Giants records, but he also leaves the team with a huge gap at a key position.  His leadership in general will also be sorely missed.  Any chance of the Giants repeating the kind of year they had in 2021 is deeply diminished.

But teams can regenerate, with the right managerial leadership and a good deal of luck.  Witness the Golden State Warriors, rebuilding for the past few years after losing KD (to injured pride) and Klay (to injury.)  Young players shuffled through, some were retained and developed, and more were added, including several lucky finds.  

The results so far are impressive: the best record in the NBA with one loss in overtime and nine wins, many of them by double digits (including a recent game they won by more than 40.)  Credit is owed the coaching staff--if this season continues this way, nobody will be able to question if Steve Kerr can coach players who aren't already superstars.  Steph Curry of course, but also Draymond Green who kept working with young players in the lean times.  Now Andre I. is back, adding his veteran leadership.  The team is the best mixture of youth, veterans and players at their peak since the championship years before KD joined.  And Klay returns maybe as early as next month.  They might be those magic Warriors again.

There's no doubt however that Steph Curry is magic again, with the first 50 point game of the NBA season in which he also had 10 assists.  Steph appears to have bulked up in the upper body, and can't be as easily backed down and thwarted by swarming defenses or individual bullying.  That was clear in just one play, in which an opponent bumped him hard but Curry bumped back, and then hit a 3.

Meanwhile the NFL is a real mess.  Not much about it makes sense, and players are making headlines for all the wrong reasons.  My hereditary team the Pittsburgh Steelers are an enigma, but they aren't alone in that, not even within their own conference.  All those teams are enigmas.  I was not even slightly surprised when the heavily favored Steelers lost to the Bengals.  Their Monday Night performance showed rust (their week+ off hit just as they were building momentum) but the question remains just how good they are.  I'm not sure it matters.  It's a depressing season so far.

And oh yeah, the Atlanta Institutional Racists won the World Series.   

Too Early But OK: From Giants to Warriors

 The San Francisco Giants season ended on a botched called third strike.  The team with the most wins in baseball was stuck in a five game series even before the League series, and before the World Series.  The rules will change, but not soon enough.  Another season like this is unlikely.

The Dodgers squeaked through but attrition set in, and they did not survive the next series.  Now there's a World Series in which I have reason to root for both teams to lose.  Rooting for Dusty Baker, once manager of the Giants and now of Houston, is the best I can muster, but really, I'm not interested.

Fortunately the NBA season has started and the Golden State Warriors won their first four games, losing their fifth in overtime.  They seem like a confident but hungry team that has a whiff of their first big winning teams.  We'll see.  But I was pleased to see Andre Igudala back on the Warriors, along with young players figuring it out and playing together.  Should be fun to watch.  Even before Klay returns.

Congratulations, S.F. Giants!

 Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants--2021 champions of the National League West.  They won it on the last day of the season, capping an incredible race to the finish with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Giants won 107 games, the most of any of the club's 136 seasons (including their dominant teams in New York early in the 20th century, although they played fewer games then.)  

The Dodgers also won on Sunday, so by winning their game, the Giants avoided a one game playoff for the division title.  In that scenario, win or lose, they were likely to meet the Dodgers twice in the post-season.  Now the Dodgers--with the second most wins in the major leagues this year, after the Giants--must win the Wild Card game on Wednesday, against a team that in the past three weeks has been even hotter than the Dodgers and Giants: the St. Louis Cardinals.

Post-season in any sport is often about momentum and injuries.  All three teams have momentum, though the Giants have been winning more on pitching recently, and the Dodgers on power hitting. And they all have injuries.  The Giants are missing their leading home run hitter and a defensive standout and veteran presence in Brandon Belt.  The Dodgers are initially without one of their ace pitchers, Clayton Kershaw.  Either could turn out to be the difference.

Though sports media has continued to downplay if not utterly ignore the Giants, the San Francisco team seems to have elements to provide a good chance of success: a dynamic mix of youth and veterans having great years, a skillful game manager, a lot of depth in general (if not at every position), and maybe that old magic as well.  But they do have weaknesses that could hurt them.  The Dodgers are powerful but brittle, and the Cards are either peaking at the right moment, or playing above their level.  Nobody knows how this is going to turn out.

But as one of the Giants' announcers said, this season is already a success.  Nothing will tarnish it.

By the way, it's been a particular pleasure for me to tune into Giants' games again and find the same crew--the best in baseball, I'm sure.  And I heard Jon Miller name check the announcer I grew up with--Bob Prince, Pittsburgh Pirates broadcaster--and one of his patented sayings, We had 'em all the way.

The First Place Giants--That's Right, It's 2021

 It's August 2021 and the San Francisco Giants are in first place.  This might come as a surprise to you, if you get your sports news from the ESPN site, which seems to believe the National League consists of the LA Dodgers and...the LA Dodgers.  They never feature a Giants game, unless of course they are playing the Dodgers, and then it's a Dodgers game.  

I'd suggest it's a product of embarrassment that their experts never even considered the Giants as a contender this year, except the chief skill of an expert is to expertly forget--and make you forget--that they ever made a wrong pick or prediction.  It's probably more that LA is Hollywood and they have all the stars.  They bought a few more recently.  LA and New York are the media centers, and everybody who counts works there and lives as nearby as they can afford.  San Francisco is not exactly a poor cousin, and has proven itself a baseball town.  But the names of their players aren't click bait.

After several years in the doldrums, the Giants started winning again this year, and even as they acquired new players, they kept winning.  There are basically only three players left from their last championship year, and they are all having very good years: Buster Posey may even be having a career year, and Brandons Crawford and Belt are hitting and fielding very well.  These guys experienced the heady years but I have to admire them for getting through the losing years, coming to the ball park every day and holding their heads up. 

The pitching staff is new and the rest of the team is pretty young and hungry.  There's a lot of platooning and pinch-hitting.  There may not be big stars but the roster is pretty high quality everywhere.  And the Giants are exciting again.  The young Yazstremski is among those who learned their game during the lean years, joined by players acquired through trades etc., which is how the Giants built their earlier championship teams.

Pitching and fielding are strong points again but the Giants lead the league in home runs, in a decidedly not home run hitter ball park.  That shocking stat alone should merit some coverage, but apparently sportswriters are so shocked they are in denial.   

The Dodgers have the established stars, and so are more vulnerable to injuries.  The Giants have youth with something to prove. The playoffs should be fun.

R.I.P. Kobe and Gigi

Death is personal.  We only know our own loss.  I count myself fortunate that I was a Lakers fan during Kobe's best years, and so I saw a lot of what he did on televised games. I taped many of the playoff games, both from the Shaq era and the Gasol era, and once in awhile I watch them again.

Of course his life was cut short, and it's even harder to see this happen to a child. But while he lived Kobe had an amazing life, and it looks like his daughter Gigi was having a particularly happy life recently.  Their lives were full.  Kobe was a mentor to many.  Now their deaths will teach as well.

May they rest in peace.

Diaspora Cheers

In the first quarter of today's game the Arizona Cardinals punted, and Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson caught the ball at the 15 yard line.  As he made his first move and blew by tacklers the crowd started to roar.  Johnson headed down the right sideline with blockers in front, the crowd roaring all the way.  And then he was in the end zone for a touchdown, and the camera panned back to show the fans waving Steelers pennants in what seemed like all the expensive seats close to the field.

So what is so unusual about this?  That this game was not played in Pittsburgh but in Arizona.

This is an extreme example of a phenomenon that for the Steelers is decades old, but it still keeps happening.  There are other teams who have vocal fans in the stands at away games, sometimes outshouting the home team fans.  There were venues where that was true for the Golden State Warriors, for example.  But no team has had more fans in other cities over a longer time than the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers are popular with football fans for their style of play, and their winning ways since the 1970s.  But there are two more prominent factors in this phenomenon.  First, the lifelong devotion of Pittsburgh sports fans.  Second, the diaspora.

That, too, started in the 1970s and accelerated in the 80s, when the memories of those legendary Steelers teams were fresh.  The steel mills closed, industrial jobs collapsed, people had to move away.  The city of Pittsburgh lost about half of its population.

But wherever they went, Pittsburghers stayed Steelers fans.  And that's continued as those leaving the area are more likely retirees looking for someplace warmer.  They are joined in places like Arizona by remaining Pittsburghers with the income to make a winter trip to a warm place, and catch a Steelers game while they are there.

Some remain Pittsburgh Pirates fans, too.  I saw this myself at a Pirates game in San Francisco a couple of seasons ago, when the Pirates were not so great. Pirates fans showed up in their team gear, sporting jerseys with the names of past Pirates greats, like Stargell and Clemente.

Up here in far northern California, I don't see many Giants or Niners caps or bumper stickers.  We've even got Seahawks fans around.  But my eye is attuned to Steelers and Pirates caps, shirts and bumper stickers.  And I see them here.  If I engage these folks (as I did a few at the Giants game), most of them once lived in the Pittsburgh area.   It has a kind of melancholy beauty, this loyalty far from home.

As for loyalty, I still wear my Golden State Warriors cap.  In the past, when it came to the NBA, I tended to switch loyalties according to how exciting the team was--from Magic's Lakers to Michael's Bulls to Kobe's Lakers.  But not anymore.  From first to last, I'm sticking with the Warriors.  I may not be following their games as closely this year, but I'm not rooting for anyone else.  I'll wait till next year.

Achilles

This year's NBA finals bordered on the mythological.  The series was so "physical" that it was more like war.  And the Golden State Warriors saw two of their heroes go down with grievous wounds.

When Klay Thompson went down in the sixth game, it was the most consequential.  After that, Golden State had almost no chance to prevail.

But it was Kevin Durant whose injury was something out of myth.  All year he resembled no mythological figure more than Achilles, a complex and troubled hero who seemed, like Achilles, to be sulking in his tent, nursing his grievances.  He had been the MVP of the previous two finals, but even that did not make him happy.

But in the playoffs he was superb, unstoppable.  And like Achilles, his vulnerable spot was his lower leg--his calf and then, of all poetic fates, his ankle.  The Greek Achilles' vulnerability in fact gave the name to the muscle that Durant injured, ending his season and next season, threatening his career: the Achilles tendon.

Now Achilles has abandoned the Warriors, and will heal his wounds in somebody else's tent, far away.

Golden State is rebuilding a team, and so far it is a young one.  Already some sports wag predicts the team will miss the playoffs altogether next year.  But in my opinion that could be the best possible fate for the Warriors.

The truth is that the Golden State Warriors of  recent years ended with their four game sweep of Cleveland to win the title last year.  This past season was a long and ugly stretch of misery, for the team and for its fans.  All we heard all year was how hard it was to slog through the season, and only the playoffs mattered.  The suspense of Achilles' decision on whether or not to depart, even though months away, was a contributing factor to this misery, thanks especially to social media and 24/7 sports bloviating.

This team played too much basketball for five years.  It needs an ordinary season to refocus on how it used to play regular season games: with joy.  There was no joy in 2018-19, or very little of it.  The basketball was often sloppy, Draymond Green was overweight, other players (including Steph Curry) seeming off in space somewhere at times. I suspect if Durant had really been undecided, this sloppy exhausted slog played a part in his choosing to leave for the blank slate of Brooklyn.

The ugliness of the season continued in the playoffs, especially when the Warriors could not seem to win at home--an unsettling reversal, so out of character.

Now the Warriors inaugurate a big new arena, and have the opportunity for a fresh start.  Perhaps they can learn to play with joy again, and fans can enjoy the season.

Finalities

It wasn't a devastating loss--it was just devastation.  In game 6, Klay Thompson was hot--he had 30 points by the third quarter--and the Warriors finally had the momentum to take the game and force a seventh.  Then incredibly he went down, with what turned out to be a serious knee injury.

Even then, Steph Curry--now the absolute focus of two and usually three defenders-- could have given Golden State the lead and possibly the win with a three point attempt towards the end of the game.  That he didn't make the shot will provide more ammunition for those commentators who dispute his greatness.  But in the long run it was merciful.  It saved the devastated Warriors from a long and certain defeat in game 7.

It is predicted that Klay Thompson will not play basketball again until early next spring.  The Warriors might have survived as an elite team without KD, because they were an elite team before he came.  But they cannot reach those heights without Klay Thompson.

The Warriors will have an interesting off-season, but their choices are not good.  They may lose KD or Thompson or both to free agency, and start to scramble for players to rebuild a team.  It seems likely however that they will sign Thompson and it seems more likely than it did a month ago that they will sign KD.  In which case they will be tying up a lot of money for two players who will not play for most if not all of next season, limiting their ability to pay for replacements. And this will be their first season in a new, larger arena, in the city of San Francisco.

Steve Kerr jokingly wondered if the Warriors could just take the next season off, but there's some rueful truth there. The Warriors have played more games than any other team over the past five seasons. Someone figured that they played the equivalent of six and a half seasons in those five years.  Analysts will gab all summer about whether the wear and tear of five seasons in a row with long playoff runs contributed to these devastating injuries.  Missing the playoffs next year may be a mercy to the players still standing.

This was to be the season of seasons, with a starting roster of five All-Stars.  Those five didn't play together at all in the Finals, and all five were healthy enough to play together for all of 12 minutes since the first round.  They ended their playoffs with two of the five on the floor--possibly the only two who will be in the starting lineup to begin next season, and that's if the Warriors keep their sanity and resist the media analysts' advice to trade Draymond.

Nevertheless, the Golden State Warriors had the highest shooting percentage in the playoffs, and the highest 3 point shot percentage.  Even after losing two star starters, they came within a missed three-pointer of taking the Finals to the seventh game.  They went down a champion.

Update: The Lakers big trade is only the beginning of teams strengthening themselves.  Right now I feel some relief that I will not be tempted to listen to those basketball commentators, especially the most annoying.  What I mostly feel is that I hope the Warriors don't make the playoffs next year.  This has been an ugly, distracted year that might have been worth it for a championship, but now I'm thinking maybe not.  That's not the most important thing.  So I renew my wish that instead we get a season in which once again the Warriors play with joy.

KD

And then the story changed.  The ultimate outcome of the finals may not, nor the aftermath of the season.  But for now, the 12 minutes that Kevin Durant played in game 5 on Monday have changed everything else--for the Finals, for the Warriors, for the NBA.

It was a game time decision that Durant start the game, and he looked his brilliant self, contributing 11 points.  But then incredibly he sustained another injury, this one even more serious, and potentially one of the most serious injuries a basketball player can suffer.  An MRI will show the extent of his Achilles tendon injury, but a late report says that the Warriors fear it is the worst: a tear.  If that is confirmed, it is unlikely KD will play at all next season.  It is an injury that has ended careers.

When he was hurt and had to go back to the locker room, some in the Toronto crowd cheered.  Steph Curry literally left the game to go back with Durant.

The Warriors were ahead and increased their lead, but the Raptors kept coming, and had a six point lead with 3 minutes to play.  Curry and Klay Thompson hit 3s, and the defense in the last minute denied Toronto from winning the game and the championship at least 3 times.  The Warriors won by 1 point, 106-105.

Update: This is the best account of the game I've seen so far.

Now the Warriors return to Oracle Arena for game 6.  Their place in history is already unassailable, but they'd prefer to not host the Raptors' championship ceremony as the last moment at Oracle. In any case, they will at least get a chance for a properly raucous farewell to Oakland.  As for the game, the math doesn't changed.  Durant's 11 points were crucial, as were Boogie Cousins's resurgent 14.  Those 11 points will have to come from somewhere.

But something beyond the numbers changed.  The Warriors have the inspiration (win it for K) and the anger (that applause in TO.)  The Oracle fans will be mightily aroused, and after years of mixed emotions, KD will be a hero to Warrior fans.  Forever.

Fans along with everyone else know that when it came time to make the decision for game 5, KD could have said no.  He could have played it safe for his own career, and gone into free agency as the player every team wants to have.

But he didn't.  That alone is the kind of inspiration that can change a series.  It will certainly change game 6.  Especially as all of this--including the support of fans, his teammates and the Warriors organization--may mean KD stays a Warrior.

The story has changed, and if the Warriors lose, it will more clearly be because KD is not playing, and the Raptors championship will always have that asterisk.  If the Warriors win game 6, and then game 7, it will be because they are inspired to new heights to win it for KD.

Finality

When injured Klay Thompson was not in the lineup for the third game of the NBA finals, the Warriors needed a career game from Steph Curry and a return to All Star form by Boogie Cousins.  Curry had that career game offensively, scoring 47, but Cousins scored fewer than 10.

To win the fourth game with Thompson back in the lineup, the Warriors needed the Splash Brothers to excel, which they did, with a total of 55 points, but once again they needed a 20 point game from Cousins, which didn't come close to happening.  Nobody else contributed much, except Kevon Looney who was unexpectedly back from his injury.

This is no criticism of Cousins, just back from a long injury, but that's the math.  Those points were needed.  But in the end, those two games were decided by Toronto's superior play both on defense and offense.  On both sides of the ball they found a formula, and they did to Golden State what they did to Milwaukee in the Eastern finals.  Once they find the formula, they are relentless.  In game 4, the Warriors did well for the first half, but were overwhelmed in a disastrous third quarter.

Now they are down 3-1, and only one team has come back from that to win the championship, and no team has won it after losing their first two games at home. I believe the Warriors will play their hearts out in Toronto on Monday, if only to ensure a proper farewell to their Oakland fans in the last game to be played there--win or lose, the 6th game of the Finals.  But being held to 92 points does not bode well for winning game 5, nor did their evident exhaustion.

And that's with or without Kevin Durant.  As of this moment it seems doubtful he will play, as he hasn't had a successful practice.  But even if he does play, a dominant performance or even the 25 points (with the Splash Brothers adding another 50 or so) and a return to defensive form that might make the difference, none of that is likely.  (Although it must be said, that a great player's first game back from an injury is sometimes very good, and it is after that adrenalin is gone that the second game back is lackluster.)

If the Warriors lose on Monday, game four will have been the last game a Warriors team plays at Oracle Arena.  And that's not the only finality.  It is possible that this will end as it seemed it probably would: with a team of 5 All-Stars triumphing to win the championship.  But it is very unlikely.  What is likely is that this is the end of this particular team.  Cousins almost certainly won't be back, and Durant only slightly less certainly will go elsewhere.  Andre may well retire, as well as Shaun Livingston.  It is even possible that Klay Thompson will go elsewhere, though that's unlikely.  But who knows what effect losing (or winning) the championship will have.

All of this demonstrates just how hard it is to repeat as champions.  So much has contributed to the situation the Warriors are now in, including the loss of concentration evident during the season.  Two more victories would have given the Dubs home court, and a first game victory could have changed things.

But to win a championship even once requires the luck to avoid key injuries at key times to your team, while hitting your opponents.  The Warriors have battled through injuries, but they've been lucky with the timing of them--until now.

Teams that repeatedly win championships often come to a surprising end.  I think especially of the Shaq and Kobe Lakers, who after championship seasons thought they were going to be invulnerable by adding two All-Stars to the roster, Karl Malone and Gary Payton.  They blundered through, and might have turned the corner until Malone got hurt in the playoffs, and then it was like a house of cards.

At this point, winning this championship would elevate this Warriors team to all-time heroic status.  But even if they lose, their accomplishments have been historic.  And win or lose, it would be great to see the Golden State Warriors back playing with joy.

Game 2: Playing Like Champions (with Updates for 3)

Steph Curry was visibly ailing.  Andre went down hard.  Klay Thompson has a hamstring issue and leaves the game.  Kevon Looney's shoulder is injured and he goes out.

Nevertheless, the Golden State Warriors played with the heart of a champion, and discovered their game with a 20-0 run in the second and third quarters.  A healthy Toronto Raptors team couldn't keep up.  They came close but the Warriors prevailed to take one of the first two road games, and for the moment take away home court, 109-104.

Before his injury, Klay Thompson was finally having a hot-shooting Klay game.  Curry had some treatment and began to find his game towards the end of the second quarter.  The Dubs started DeMarcus Cousins, and he got better as the game went on.  Draymond was aggressive, Andre was inspired--he took and hit the open 3 that iced the game, after the Dubs went dry for the last 5 minutes of the game. Quinn Cook hit three 3s, and every member of the bench contributed points except the injured Looney, and only two bench players didn't play.

This was not only a gutty win, it was the Warriors discovering how to beat Toronto.  They saw success with Cousins and Andrew Bogut, countering the Raptors' bigs. Cousins' 11 points is apt to grow.  Double and triple teams try to wear Curry down, but he usually wears them down to have big shots and big assists late in the game. The motion offense and transition defense work against Toronto as they did against Houston and Portland.

But a lot will depend on the injury report.  Thompson and Looney will undergo tests on Monday.  If they are ready to play on Wednesday, and Cousins doesn't have a physical setback, then the Warriors are in good shape.  It should soon be known whether KD will play.  At this moment it is possible the dream lineup--the five all-stars-- will be on the court together.  That doesn't guarantee victory, but it comes closer.

On the other hand, it's hard to see how the Warriors survive without Klay or KD or Andre.  But as Steph Curry said at his presser, Strength in Numbers isn't just a slogan--it's a program that begins in training camp.  And the heart of a champion extends to the whole Golden State Warriors roster.  

Update Mon.: Looney is out for the rest of the year with a shoulder fracture.  Klay Thompson is "questionable" for Wednesday, depending on how things go over the next two days.  No word yet on Andre or KD.

Update Tues: KD is out for Wednesday, Klay is still questionable, Andre is ailing but likely to play.  Consensus is building that this game is Toronto's big chance--if the Warriors win, it will be considered amazing.

Finals Game 1: Questions and Answers

Update: The Answers

Rest or rust?  For the Warriors: rust.  Defensive intensity suffered, especially in the first half, plus too many turnovers.  They stayed in the game but ultimately lost the first game of a Finals series for the first time, by nine points to a Toronto team at the top of its game.

How good is Toronto?  At their best, pretty damn good. The Unlikely Hero of this game for Toronto was Pascal Siakam, who picked a good night to have a career game, scoring 32 points on 14 of 17 shooting.  While offensively the Warriors weren't bad--Steph Curry scored 34, the bench added some points--Toronto as a team played better.

Boogie Cousins played six minutes, showed some signs, but didn't score.  KD didn't play, and almost certainly won't play in game 2 on Sunday.  Which, if not a must win for Golden State, is a necessary win to get control of the series.  Andre is playing hurt, and is not contributing much to the offense.  He is however expected to play Sunday.

I'm guessing here, but I expect Shaun Livingston to play more minutes in game 2, if he's able.  The Toronto defense is open to the kind of midrange shots that are his bread and butter.


Questions:

The NBA Finals Hype is on.  Early money on the Warriors has met counter-expertise favoring Toronto.  Someone claims Kevin Durant has played his last game as a Warrior; KD promptly flew to Toronto.  The first game is Thursday, the second is Sunday.

How good is Toronto?  After being manhandled for two and a half games by the Bucks, they found a defense that worked like a charm.  They won four straight.  Was it their team, or a weakness in the Bucks unique to them?

Can Golden State play as well as they did in their last five plus games?  The long, long layoff helps with healing, and with rust.  This is their fifth straight finals, and their first beginning on the road.  (They lost home court by a game.)

Klay Thompson sacrificed offense for defense in the Western Conference finals.  He may have to do it again.  Is Andre healthy enough to play his shutdown defense?  Can Draymond keep up his pace, and his career-best play?

These two teams both play like teams. They both can play great defense.   There may be unlikely heroes in each game.  The possible returns of Boogie Cousins and KD are big unknowns (although neither will in the first game.) If they do they probably won't play big minutes.  But they could be crucial minutes.

But the series likely comes down to Steph Curry.  Can he match and surpass his incredible run in the western conference series?  He's going to attract all the defensive attention from Toronto.  Can they stop him?  Can he stay hot?  And most of all, can he stay healthy?  None of this can be known until the games are played.

If Golden State wins the first game, they are in very good shape.  If they win one of the first two, they are in good shape.  All other things (all other ankles) being equal.

Historic

The Golden State Warriors swept the Portland Trailblazers in the western conference championship round to earn their fifth straight appearance in the NBA Finals, the first time any team has done that since the 1960s, when the Boston Celtics dominated the other dozen or so teams.

To win this game, Steph Curry and Draymond Green became the first teammates to achieve triple doubles in a playoff game.  Curry scored more than 35 points for the fifth game in a row. His average over the four games was the highest of any player ever in a four game sweep.  He had 7 three pointers in the overtime victory.

It was only a two point victory, so any of the bench players could have made the difference as well.  Alfonso McKinnie and Kevon Looney in particular played big in big moments, and kept up the defensive intensity in the fourth and overtime. Three Blazers players scored over 25 points; only Curry did for the Warriors.  It was a dazzling team effort.

Consider this was a Warriors team that started McKinnie and J. Bell on Monday night.  A defensive stand without the injured Andre seemed impossible to some.  But they got it done.  They won both games on the road, and their third in a row comeback from 17 points down in the second half.

This was an historic series for the Warriors, and an exciting one.  Now the Warriors have 9 days before their next game for their ailing players to heal. (Andre seems likely to be ready, Boogie Cousins might be; the big question mark is still KD.)  The Eastern series is 2-1 at the moment, so the winner will have played at least one more game than the Warriors needed to.  Neither Eastern contender has been to the Finals.

WCF Game 3 Questions and Answers

There is no question about KD and Boogie Cousins: they will not be playing in Portland; KD for one isn't making the trip.  So the questions for the third game are: will the Portland back court stars catch fire, as they are more than capable of doing, and will the Warriors shoot well enough to counter?  Or will they continue to be somewhat stifled by the Warrior defense?

The Warriors had a second game letdown for the first half, but came out burning in the third quarter, and won the last 5 minutes of the game.  Portland had a 15 point lead at halftime and an 8 point lead late in the fourth, but the Dubs owned the stretch.  Steph Curry was big for the entire game, and Klay hit the crucial shots in the fourth.  The rest was defense and team playmaking, and it was beautiful to watch.

The Blazers did so much right that Steve Kerr suggested they outplayed the Dubs.  In particular they shot a high percentage of threes--perhaps an unsustainably high percentage.  And they still lost.

The third game is pretty much a must win for Portland.  The likely path is for one of their stars to go wild and score 40 plus points.  If that happens, the return of KD begins to assume some urgency.

The Answers:

In the third game, the Golden State defense once again smothered the Portland back court, and while the rest of the team gave them a first half lead, the Warriors dismantled the Blazers defense in the second half.  Draymond Green, who had a triple double before the fourth quarter began, successfully pushed and ran the offense while Steph Curry attacked from everywhere on the court.  The result was an 11 point victory, and a 3-0 lead in the series.  Curry scored 36, with 6 threes.

Andre Iguodala left the game in the third quarter with a variously described "soreness" and will get an MRI Sunday.  So the question is the extent of his injury, for he is a key element.  The Warriors can't keep losing major players. Some of those looking ahead to the finals presumably against the Bucks believe Kevin Durant's return is necessary to victory.  Losing Andre would be potentially fatal as well.  But that's looking too far ahead now.  There's a game to play Monday.

WCF Game 1: Questions and Answers

Golden State got two pieces of bad news prior to the first game of the Western Conference Finals tonight.  First was their opponent: the Portland Trailblazers, who pose a bigger challenge than the Denver Nuggets.  The second was that Kevin Durant would not play the first game, and probably not the second on Thursday.  Boogie Cousins is also not close to returning, though he is able to run.

So what could have been all but a sure thing for a focused Warriors team now suggests questions.  Will there be a letdown from their 6th game victory against the Rockets?  Will the bench over-perform again, or revert to its season averages?  Can the Dubs match the energy that the Blazers are likely to bring? They are likely to make the defensive adjustments the Rockets failed to make. The first game is huge.

Update: The Answers

One question I forgot to ask: how will Portland's energy level be, after a game 7 in high-altitude Denver on Saturday?  The answer to that seems to have been: not that good.  Nor was the defensive preparation.

On the other hand, Golden State suffered no letdown in front of the home crowd, and their energy level was high.  The bench performed very well, adding to the lead at the start of the fourth quarter especially.  Steph Curry hit 9 three pointers, tying his personal playoff best, Klay played stellar defense and dropped 28 points.  The result: The Warriors win going away, 116-94.

But as Draymond Green said after the game, it only gets harder from here.  Portland gets to adjust its defense and can up its intensity in game 2 on Thursday, which is pretty close to a must-win for them, especially because KD may be back on the floor in Portland.  For Golden State, winning the first game was huge.

One for the Ages

It would be hard to overestimate the dimensions of the Golden State Warriors win over the Houston Rockets in the sixth game, taking the second round series 4-2.  It was a brilliant team effort with brilliant individual performances, including Steph Curry, who was scoreless and had 3 fouls in the first half, and scored 33 points in the second half, including 23 in the fourth quarter--his most points in a fourth quarter in his career--and 16 points in the last 4 minutes without a miss to end the game.  This in a closeout game, on the road, without one of the best players of all time in Kevin Durant.  Not to mention already without Boogie Cousins to force the Rockets into going big.

Instead it was Devon Looney who forced the Rockets into going big, with his rebounds and buckets in the paint, and so opening the floor for a hot Klay and a hot Andre from 3.  Curry battled a swarming defense and finally picked it apart, swooping to the basket or drilling impossible threes.  He did this still not fully healed from his dislocated finger, which he injured again in this game.

All the bullshit about Curry, about Klay and Draymond and the Warriors in general now fades.  Instead of facing a do or die seventh game, the team rests and waits to see who they play in the western conference final.  Steph is likely rooting for Portland and his brother Seth.  But probably every other Warrior is rooting for Denver, a less experienced team that the Dubs have buried in their last two meetings.  It is possible if not likely that Durant will be ready for that series.  And latest word is that Boogie Cousins might be, too.

The Warriors won also because every one of the bench players came through, not just because they collectively doubled their highest point total of the season, but because they played the Warriors game, were tenacious on defense and within the system on offense.  Coach Kerr said after the game that maybe he should have played them more in the series.

Speaking of Kerr and the coaching staff, I erred in saying neither team had a coaching advantage in terms of in-game adjustments.  At halftime, the Dubs made at least two crucial adjustments.  One was either equipment or Curry's own experiments, but somehow Curry found a way to deal with his injured finger.  The other was an offensive adjustment by the coaching staff that confused Rockets defenders, giving Curry shots near the basket and in the paint, in addition to his threes.  The Warriors always had the better offensive system.  But Coach Kerr, his staff and his players made crucial adjustments to win the second half and especially the fourth quarter.

I wrote that the Warriors had their best shot at the Rockets in the sixth game, partly because the Rockets might be assuming this game and anticipating the seventh game.  Now the Warriors must avoid a similar temptation: to look beyond the next series to the championship finals.  They must know now what they risk by extending a series with less than championship play.

After the fifth game, the chatter was mostly about KD going down, overlooking a heroic fourth quarter for Steph Curry and the Warriors team.  After the sixth game, there's little else to talk about (although Houston may face a coaching change.)  In playoff history, this game was indeed one for the ages.

One More for the Ages

The injury of Kevin Durant could hardly have come at a worse time for the Golden State Warriors.  He will not play the remainder of the Rockets series, which resumes in Houston Friday with the Dubs needing one more win to advance to the third round.

Durant has been having record-setting playoff production, and his loss subtracts a minimum of 20 points to as many as 50 points a game from the Warrior attack.  He is indefensible, especially by the Rockets, and his defense is also important.

I doubt there is precedent for an NBA team to lose two starters and still win a championship.  But if any team can do it, it is the Golden State Warriors.  I'll go against conventional wisdom and suggest that their best chance of winning the series is the next game in Houston.  It will be difficult for the Rockets not to be looking beyond that game at a seventh game showdown in Oakland.  It will be an opportunity for the Dubs to show Houston what it is not prepared for.

The Warriors can make NBA history.  Or they can close out their time at Oracle Arena with a bittersweet and season-ending evening.

Two More

4th Game Update: The good news is that Steph Curry had a more effective game, scoring 30, while Kevin Durant continued his torrid pace with 34.  The Warriors were even or ahead in key stats, except 3-pointers (Curry was still way off ), and it was two 3-point misses in the last seconds that sealed the game for Houston.  Which of course is the bad news.

Questions going into the fifth game on Wednesday are Iggie's actual health (he's listed as probable) and what's up with Klay Thompson.  I expect the Warriors will call some plays for him early, and if he starts hitting it may be what the team needs.  

So we're back to the classic pivotal fifth game, as Houston-Golden State start to look like the Lakers-Kings of old. The Warriors can retain home court and take control by winning. Tuesday's fifth games were blowouts.  The Warriors at home are always a possibility.  So at the moment it's still "two more," but now that applies to both teams.


3rd Game Update: It's clear now who had the more significant injury in the second game of this series: in the third game, James Harden had his best performance, while Steph Curry had one of the worst games of his career.  The embarrassing blown point-blank shots in overtime suggest that his left hand is unreliable, and his ankle may also be affecting the timing of his shots, and whether his legs are under him when he shoots. 

Klay Thompson also had a mediocre game, though he made timely shots down the stretch.  Yet the continued superior play of Kevin Durant and Andre Igoudala, and Draymond Green's timely shooting, sent this game into overtime and kept it close until the final moments, and Houston came away with a win at home.

Ordinarily Curry follows a subpar game with a superior one, but when injuries are involved, that possibility remains a question, and will until Monday's fourth game of the series, also in Houston. 


The Golden State Warriors won both games at home to take a 2-0 lead into Houston for the next two games of the second round Western Conference playoffs.  Despite the victory, the first game was (according to observers) almost a parody of an NBA game.  But the second game was one of the best of the year, especially for the Warriors.

They discovered the formula to dominate the Rockets: tenacious defense, the five Death Lineup starters all scored at least 15 points, and the Warriors got 14 more possessions than the Rockets.

The most obvious stand-outs of the first two games were Kevin Durant, who so far is having an historic playoff run, and Draymond Green, who is making a difference on defense and offense.

The second game saw injuries to each team's star player: James Harden suffered injuries to both eyes that affected his vision, and Steph Curry suffered a dislocated finger that affected his shot, especially 3s.  Nevertheless, Harden shot phenomenally well after the injury, and Curry hit a couple of important 3s late in the game.

Both teams have 3 days off before play resumes on Saturday.  Both Harden and Curry likely benefit from the rest.  Both expect to play.  Curry practiced as usual on Thursday.  No one can know, of course, how their play will be affected.

The Warriors have won two games with a balanced attack.  Notably none of their stars has yet gone off for a big scoring game.  It's unlikely that Curry will, with his injury and his continuing foul trouble, but Klay Thompson is due, and he responds especially well to days of rest.

That the Warriors won with a balanced attack causes continuing problems for the Rockets defense.  On offense I expect the Rockets will look to mimic that balanced attack more in game 3, especially with Harden not 100%.  Most experts and the oddsmakers are expecting the Rockets to win this game.  However the Dubs this year have been especially locked in on the road.

 But the effect of a long layoff is a big question.  No doubt the Rockets will be playing with desperation.  The Warriors will have to match that intensity.  This series is not even remotely over, although needing two more wins is better that needing four.

For the Roses

Update 4/27: As noted below, both Curry and Thompson are banged up with ankle injuries, and today Coach Kerr called them questionable for Sunday.  Ankle injuries can linger, especially if players play through them--Curry in particular but also Thompson can be hampered significantly by these minor injuries that affect shots, quickness, etc.  If Golden State loses this series, their failure to come out strong in game 5 of the first round will be the reason.  That meant another game, in which both of these players sustained injuries, plus it meant they lose a day to recover before the series begins.


The conventional wisdom at this point is that this year's NBA championship could very well be decided by the western conference second round match-up of Golden State and Houston.   Most experts still give the Warriors the edge but there are doubts.

That's because the Warriors seem intent on making it harder for themselves.  They blew a 31 point lead in the second game with the Clippers, while Houston won the first three against Utah, making it likely that they would get a few days extra rest.  But this past Wednesday, opportunity knocked on the Golden State door when Utah suppressed Houston long enough to win game 4 (and promptly lost game 5.)  So all the Warriors had to do was win game 5 at home, and the Houston advantage in rest would be wiped out.

So like true champions did they take advantage of every little advantage?  Not exactly.  They lost to the Clippers again at home.  Just like that, Houston regained its extra rest, even though the Warriors bested the Clips by 19 points in game 6 in LA to take the series. KD scored 50 and Draymond Green excelled on both sides. Once again Steph came out flat, ending up with 24 points.

Now the Warriors start the second round on short rest and with both Steph Curry and Thompson looking banged-up after the game--the real risk run when a team fails to close out a series.  No word immediately on whether they'll be able to start on Sunday.  The only good news for the team's health is that Draymond Green's wounded hand didn't hamper his shot tonight.

Granted that the Clippers exceeded everybody's expectations, marking them as a young team with a future.  If they get a star in the off-season they will be truly formidable.  But the Warriors showed vulnerabilities that could hurt them against Houston--lack of defense, lack of clutch scoring, and above all, lack of urgency.  It became a question of how much they want the championship, for it is clear that Houston is hungry.

This is a series than could easily go the full seven.  Some experts see Houston as weaker than last year, but then, without Cousins, so are the Dubs.  A lot could depend on how each team's bench plays.  Coaching is probably a wash, as neither side is all that good at adjusting during the game.  (The Clippers had the edge in coaching in round one.)  Momentum favors Houston, and if you count Cousins, so does health.

Did the Dubs learn enough in round one?  That KD can score 45 and Steph 25, but if they don't defend they can still lose?  They have to hope that two of their big scorers (KD, Curry, Thompson) have big nights each game, and either Draymond or Iguadala, and one or another of the bench players come through on offense, and everybody plays tenacious defense. The Dubs missed Cousin's potential scoring firepower against the Clippers, and they might miss it a lot this round.

The Warriors can defend, but Houston's defense has improved down the stretch.  On any given night Houston can score a ton of points.  It's not going to be easy for the Dubs to win this series, and if they aren't serious from the opening tip-off to the end, they could actually find themselves with a short one that has a bad outcome.

Golden State's habit of losing at home makes the old "win the first and second, win the fifth" formula obsolete, and even a 3-1 lead is no longer even a leading indicator for either team.  This is likely to be a series in which the outcome is never predictable until there is nothing left to predict, because one of the teams has won four games.

Playoffs Become Real

On the first day of the 2019 NBA playoffs, only the Golden State Warriors escaped "Upset Saturday."  Their margin of victory was larger than their game warranted however.  In their second game against the LA Clippers, they managed to lose a 31 point lead in the third quarter, and lose the game in the biggest comeback in playoff history.

That was not the full extent of their misery.  They also lost Boogie Cousins to a season ending injury.  Their second half showcased serious flaws--undisciplined players, turnovers, and worst of all, panic.  All the most frustrating aspects of this year's Warriors were on view: their postgame analyses are always accurate, they spot the flaws in their game, and then fail to correct them.  Kevin Durant sounds like he has his head in the game, yet he followed a two technical and ejection night with fouling out early enough in the fourth quarter not to be on the court when the game suddenly got serious.  That doesn't sound like an elite player with his head in the game.  Both Splash Brothers had shots that might have won the game that didn't fall in the last seconds.

All that said, I recall that the championship Bull and Lakers had inexplicable playoff failures like this in their multi-ring runs.  And when play resumes in LA, the Clippers have about zero chance of winning game three.  (Of course, at the start of the third quarter of the second game, the Dubs chances to win were posted at 99.9.)

But the biggest test of the playoffs for the Warriors will come soon after.  They are very likely to meet the Rockets in the second round.  If Houston continues to dominate Utah, they will be the more rested team, and nobody wants to face a rested James Harden.  The Rockets have been playing at a higher level, and right now they are the healthier team.  Whether the Warriors are an actual team anymore, rather than a collection of high performance players, is a question opened to doubt by the first two playoff games.  And this most recent game suggests that home court advantage ain't what it used to be for the Warriors.

So suddenly the playoffs are real.  The Warriors are not confidently coasting to a championship.  However, if this was going to happen, it was going to happen in the playoff's second game, and it's best that it did.  The playoffs in general are about health and momentum.  Houston has both of those now, the Warriors don't.  Playoff games are about establishing a rhythm early and maintaining it for the entire game.  The Warriors used to know how to do that.  They'll need to relearn it and enact it for every game of the playoffs.

 

Champs, Part One

Steph Curry for the Warriors' last regular season game at Oracle;
the team wore throwback uniforms from the "We Believe" era.

On Sunday in the last regular season game ever in Oracle Arena, the Golden State Warriors beat the LA Clippers to clinch the Western Conference championship, and home court advantage throughout the conference playoffs.

The Dubs led at the half but put the game away with an astounding 42-18 third quarter, leading to the 131-104 victory.  Steph Curry followed his 40 point game with 27.

But with only three days left in the regular season, only two things are certain for the Warriors: they will have home court advantage throughout the western conference playoffs, but not the finals, if Milwaukee is their opponent.  Otherwise, almost everything is still to be determined.

The western conference teams are set, but there are battles for seeding, principally at the top and at the bottom. At the bottom, the Spurs and Clips have identical records, with OKC having the same number of wins but down one in the loss column.  At the top, the Nuggets and Rockets have both won 53 games, with the Nuggets up one in the losses.  But Portland is close enough to move up.  In fact, the whole seeding after Golden State could change by the end of the season this week.

Things are a little more stable in the East, though the eighth position is still up for grabs. Detroit, Charlotte and Miami all have a mathematical chance.  Brooklyn and Orlando are in, but have identical records, so the seeding at the bottom is still open.

Coach Kerr will rest his top 8 players in the two remaining games (four each game), both on the road.  The only drawback to losing these games is losing the possibility of home court over Toronto, if that's the finals match-up.

There isn't much doubt that the greatest challenge to the Dubs in the West is once again the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets are peaking at just the right time, as are the Warriors.  Both teams are healthy going into the playoffs.  I haven't followed the Rockets to know if any other western team poses a significant challenge to them, but the Warriors know how to beat their other possible conference opponents.

Even though the absence of Lebron seems to make the finals easier, the eastern field is actually stronger this year.  Any of the top four teams is capable of winning games against the Warriors, and since they don't play each other much, there is an element of unpredictability.  Generally the West is still stronger, but it's not the clear western dominance this year as it has been in recent years.  

Stretch Run

The Golden State Warriors have an even dozen games left to play in the regular season: seven at home, five away.  Though many of their opponents aren't playoff bound, the Dubs have been prone to relax too much with less capable teams, and there are a few opponents that have given them legitimate trouble.  But winning out is not at all impossible.

At the moment they are holding on to the top position in the West, but Denver is right with them.  However, the Nuggets have 13 games left, 8 of them on the road--and they are not a good road team.  The Dubs host them on April 2.

Coach Kerr is signaling that the Warriors are out to win these games, even though resting players for the playoffs could be a reasonable strategy.  And avoiding injury is crucial.

Have the Warriors found a way to integrate Cousins in the offense, by slowing down a bit while still emphasizing ball movement in half court sets?  Now the return of Bogut adds another dimension at the center position.  Cousins is out at the moment with an ankle injury; in case of injury, foul trouble or when more defense is needed, Bogut is another veteran option.

 It is unlikely but not inconceivable that the Warriors will end up with a better won-lost than Milwaukee in the East.  But home court in the West is the first task.  It certainly is an advantage over Denver (though the Dubs have handled them on both courts), and a needed one against the one team that has given them the most trouble this year: Houston.  Nobody knows what their regular season games mean, however, since a key player on one of the teams was out for all of their matchups--and the team that lacked a key member won the game 3 out of 4.

Warriors May Be Losing Durant With Sloppy Play and No-Change Giants Reach for Redemption

After weeks of winning, the Golden State Warriors have stumbled badly after the All-Star Break.  Each loss was more embarrassing than the last, culminating so far in losing to the lowly Suns.

They sort of did this last year, but this year I detect a difference: it's making Kevin Durant unhappy.  Some of his comments to reporters are downright cynical.  It's likely the Dubs had a good chance of retaining Durant, but unless things change for the rest of the season, they're apt to lose him this summer, simply because playing for the Warriors may not be fun anymore.  The joy isn't there.  He may look for it elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants are playing pre-season baseball, having made no big trades or acquisitions in the off-season.  Mainly they have a team of players who had bad years last year and are aching for redemption.  Maybe that will turn out to be a good thing, in Bruce Bochy's last season.

They lost out to the Phillies on obtaining Bryce Harper, but that may not turn out to be much of a loss.  Harper is volatile, a me first player who seems like he might turn out to be a bad teammate, and could very well crash and burn long before his ridiculously long contract is up.  That he made his decision to not play in San Francisco partly because of California taxes tells me that baseball and community are not competitive values in his world.  He's not Giants material.

Road Warriors--and Giannis' Crazy Picks

The Golden State Warriors were already on a tear when Boogie Cousins joined the starting five.  They've since been winning by big margins, tight games and coming from behind.  They've won 16 of their last 18 games, including an 11 game winning streak.  They've eclipsed 145 points twice.  At the moment they lead the West by 2.5 games.

Especially intriguing is their road record.  The Road Warriors have won 11 in a row, a streak that's still alive.  The Warriors used to be unbeatable at home, but perhaps distractions or just regular life have fooled with their focus, but they have been sloppier at home than on the road recently.  On the road, with nothing but basketball, they seem more locked in.  Of course, the home fires will be burning more fiercely as the playoffs come closer.

The All-Star break is coming soon, emphasis on break.  The festivities highlight is likely to be the 3 point shooting match between the Curry brothers.  Thanks to the crazy picks by Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James got the better team, by a lot. That he's also getting to audition possible Lakers teammates is at least a bonus for him.  But Team LeBron is so much better that spectators are going to have to count on a certain playfulness and low-key spirit to avoid an embarrassing blowout.