End Times

The San Francisco Giants hit into five double plays--two to end the 8th and 9th-- in a futile effort to stop the Dodgers in the first game of the last series of the season, losing by the familiar score of 3-1.  The 1 is the familiar part.

Madison Bumgarner started, and though he has a year left on his contract, lots of speculation that it's his last year in San Francisco.  That seems nearly certain for outfielder Hunter Pence, who has been making the best of his last few games with home runs and exciting play.  He gave what may have been an exit interview about why SF fans are special.

Everyone expects a lot of changes, on the field and off, for the Giants for next year, as the championship seasons of 10, 12 and 14 become distant memories.  Remaining players of those years--especially Pence--are still fan favorites.

And so the inexplicable season ends with only one obvious observation: it turned out after all that the vulnerability wasn't pitching--both the young starters and the bullpen did pretty well for the last part of the season--but hitting, especially hitting for power.  That may turn out to be even harder to remedy than pitching.

The postseason is still undecided for a number of other teams--including the Dodgers--so it's time for my annual lecture on the proper use of the term "clinch."  A team clinches something--a division championship, a wild card berth for instance--when they will win it at the end of the season even if they lose every game still to be played.  The term only has meaning when there are games yet to play.  Otherwise teams "win" championships etc.

Yet "clinched" is often misused when the proper term is "won."   In other words, when a team wins the final game of a series, or in the NBA for example when they win four games in a playoff series so that the full seven are not played, they have won--not clinched--the championship.  It is possible in the NBA to clinch a playoff spot in the regular season when there are games yet to be played, but a team can only win (or lose) a playoff series.

End of lecture about the end of the season.  I must add that I've become a temporary Yankees fan since Andrew McCutchen has been playing left field for New York.  He got a hit, scored and drove in a run in today's win over the Red Sox.  I should give props to the SF Giants front office for making sure they traded Cutch to a contender, so that he can play in the postseason.  In Pittsburgh he played in a couple of wild card games and one division championship series, but not beyond that.

I'm not yet sure however that my Yankeeness will overcome my Boston ties if and when they play each other for the division championship.  Then again, the Yankees were the first AL team I followed as a kid, when they had Mantle, Maris, Moose Scowron etc. and one of my pitching heroes, Whitey Ford.  But I think seeing Cutch get into the World Series will overcome my Boston reflex.

And with the end comes a beginning--of Golden State Warriors basketball!  It should be an exciting season.  It starts with nearly everybody healthy, a lot of young players who will get big minutes, and the integration of Boogie Cousins into the starting lineup, which may start sooner than later.

Shame

In his first season in San Francisco, Andrew McCutchen leads the Giants in home runs, RBIs, hits, runs scored, doubles, stolen bases and walks. He leads the team in games and innings played.  And the Giants reportedly just traded him. Apparently for a mediocre minor league infielder they don't need. And on a day that another Giants outfielder goes on the DL and requires surgery.

They didn't even give him a full season--a player of his calibre, and a standup guy. This is a day of shame for the San Francisco Giants.

Giving Up

Update 8/30: In his first season in San Francisco, Andrew McCutchen leads the Giants in home runs, RBIs, hits, runs scored, doubles, stolen bases and walks.  And the Giants reportedly just traded him.  For next to nothing.  Shame.


The last straw was Buster Posey requiring season-ending surgery.  Pablo Sandoval needing same was a mere warmup.  The San Francisco have lost six of their last seven, scoring three runs or fewer for--well, living memory--and they've put Andrew McCutchen on trade waivers.  They've given up.

Here's the thing: it wasn't the best year of Cutch's career, and he had his ups and downs at the plate, but over the season it's hard to name a Giant player who was better. He's played more games and more innings than any other position player.  He was more than competent in the field and as a hitter.  He's admitted that the trade from Pittsburgh was wrenching, so feeling comfortable in San Francisco was going to take some time.  He didn't get it.

The Giants' fall is in some sense inexplicable so it's anybody's guess how they improve next year.  But getting rid of Cutch after one season does not sit well with me.  So for now, if they indeed trade Cutch, I'm giving up on the Giants until they give me a reason to think better of them.

25

I've just watched video of the ceremony in San Francisco Saturday to retire Barry Bond's number 25.  The Giants organization planned it well: 25 years after Bonds joined the Giants, and before a game with the only other Major League team Bonds played for, the Pittsburgh Pirates.

I only saw Bonds in one game at the San Francisco ball park (he struck out twice.)  But I saw him in probably a dozen games in his Pittsburgh years.  In one of the last games, I saw him hit safely to all fields, at least 4 hits, mostly rocket line drives that could take your breath away even if they stayed in the park.

So perhaps it was fitting that the most important words spoken about Bonds at this Saturday's ceremony were from his Pirates manager Jim Leyland--that is, at least in one important context.

There are probably Giants fans who were surprised that Bonds' number hadn't been retired long ago.  We all know why not.  But now with the entire organization behind him, this ceremony, this display provides a powerful boost to Bonds' chances of finally getting into the baseball Hall of Fame.

Willie Mays spoke at the ceremony, though apparently he wasn't scheduled to do so, and he issued the call: vote him in.  Maybe I'm prejudiced by my Pittsburgh roots, but I believe Leyland's carefully worded statement was even more important: "Without question, [Bonds] is the best player I ever managed in my 22 years as a major league skipper."  

Those are powerful words coming from one of the most revered managers (he won a World Series title with the Marlins) who is himself likely to be voted into the Hall.

Bonds won the National League MVP twice in his six Pittsburgh seasons. He won his first in 1990 when he hit .301 with 33 homers and stole 52 bases, and won a Gold Glove.  He won his second in 1993 with similar numbers.  He wound up winning 7 MVPs--no other player has won more than 3.  That's just the beginning of his records, which no other player in any "era" in which he played could equal.  Barry Bonds belongs in the baseball Hall of Fame, or nobody does.

Don't Trade The Cutch

It's not just because I'd be crushed if the San Francisco Giants traded Andrew McCutchen before I had a chance to see him play in a Giants uniform.  I'm against trading him in August (as the depressing consensus seems to say the Giants might like to) for non-personal reasons as well.

Cutch has just been moved to leadoff, and he seems to be thriving there.  He brings stability to a lineup that needs it, with all the injuries this year, and all the experiments based on performance.  Though they seem to lack the starting pitching to go far (see below), the Giants could make some noise the rest of this season with this lineup. San Francisco is hungry for that.

The other reason goes to credibility.  If the Giants want to acquire star players, they have to treat them well when they move out there.  Cutch has been uprooted from his hometown of Pittsburgh.  Based on his past performance and status, he deserves at least a full season in San Francisco.  But also, not giving him at least that long might make the Giants' organization look bad to prospective stars.  The Giants apparently missed out on free agents because they thought the team wasn't ready to contend.  If it also gives the impression of treating players like meat, stars are going to be even more leery of coming to the Bay.

The Giants return home after their first winning road trip since June.  The last part of the trip was notable for two players the Giants traded for this year with high and so far unfulfilled hopes.  Andrew McCutchen had a five hit game, including a homer, though unfortunately in a lost cause.  But he hit and got on base in other games as well.  Evan Longoria hit two home runs, including a solo shot that won the key game of the trip, the final game in Arizona that meant a split in that series and a 4-2 trip.  So maybe they've turned a corner.

The young players continue to perform well, and the combination should make for some good baseball and exciting games at home.  But their season is likely to founder on what once was their strongest feature: starting pitching.  They had three veteran starters at the beginning of the season, and lost all three to injury.  Now one of them--Cueto--is out for the year, and the other probably is.  Madison Bumgarner is still a great pitcher, but a contender needs more than one veteran star starter.

The Giants have several good young starters, but as the games in Arizona suggested, they haven't yet developed quite enough to carry a team that doesn't score many runs.  Still, there is a sudden youth movement on the Giants, which combined with the established stars, the younger veterans (like Kelby) and the new veterans (Cutch and Longoria) could make for unpredictable brilliance in any given game.

The Bad Luck Giants

The San Francisco Giants run of bad luck continues in terms of injuries.  Their second best starter Johnny Cueto, out for most of the season, now faces the likelihood of surgery that will end his season and threatens his career.  Hardly a game goes by that doesn't see a Giants player heading for the DL, the latest being Pablo Sandoval.

Another aspect of luck that was once with the Giants and has since disappeared was the luck of the trade.  In their glory years, nearly every trade the Giants made paid off, some of them--like obtaining Hunter Pence--big time.  But in recent years their high profile trades have largely been busts.  That was once again dramatically demonstrated on the field Monday in San Diego.

The Giants had a 3-0 lead thanks to one hit--a homer by utility fielder Chase d'Arnaud.  But they couldn't add on and the Padres chipped away until it was 3-2 going into the eighth.  Manager Bruce Bochy chose Mark Melancon to pitch the bottom of the eighth.  When the Giants traded for him, Melancon was a premier closer.  Injuries and ineffectiveness have made him a liability in close games, so it was completely predictable that the Padres would hit him and score.  The only unusual event was that they only tied the game.

In the top of the tenth, the Giants had runners on first and third with two out, thanks to some actual good luck within the game, on bounces and bad throws.  The Padres are not a good team.  Up came Evan Longoria, another high profile trade for a veteran All-Star.  As Dave Fleming said on the radio, they traded for him for just these moments.  He popped up on the first pitch.

Fortunately, however, the Giants gritted it out to win in 12 innings on a home run by one of their pleasant surprises, Gorkys Hernandez, and bravura pitching by Will Smith.

When they traded for Andrew McCutchen, they hoped he would give them the combination of power, average, speed on the basepaths and brilliant fielding that ignites a team.  He's given them at least something positive in all those departments except power, so he's been moved to lead-off batter in the hopes that he can ignite the team from there.

It could be a long rest of the season.  With their upgrade trade, the Dodgers are clear favorites in the division, and the Giants had another hitting drought after the break to fall pretty much out of contention.  But they can still play exciting baseball. They have found a number of really good young players, and they have core stars like Crawford, Posey and Bumgarner, and undervalued players like Kelby Tomlinson who keeps bouncing back from the minors to play key roles, as he did Monday.  It seems they've finally found a closer in Will Smith, who struck out four Padres in a row to win (and save) the 12 inning game on Monday.

Meanwhile there are a few hours before the trading deadline. McCutchen is being talked about in the media as a possible trade.  That would be depressing--I haven't even had the chance to see him in a Giants uniform. In any case,  I almost cringe at the idea of a trade now.  Not for the Bad Luck Giants.

Update: The trading deadline came and went without the Giants making a move.  In a quick turnaround day game, their rookie phenom Rodriegez lost a deserved win when Longoria failed to come home on a passed ball to the backstop.  He sort of made up for it with a triple in the 10th, as did Brian Crawford who singled him in, after striking out looking at three pitches with the bases loaded in the 8th.  So the Giants barely survived two games in extra innings against the weakest team in the division.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers got more depth via trade, and the surging Pirates went all in to try to challenge for a playoff spot this year.

Will They Be Giants?

Someone somewhere posted a comparison between where the San Francisco Giants are this year at the All Star break, and where they were in 2010, the year of their first of even-year championships this decade.  This year and 2010 are pretty much identical: in fourth place but not very many games back, with a barely winning record.

It's true that the Giants' division is not especially strong this year, but do the Giants have a chance?  Probably not.  They've got a few very promising young pitchers, but not what they had in 2010.  They don't have a dominant closer, as they did then.
But what the Giants this year really don't have that they had then is luck.  The Giants were very good in their championship years, but they were also lucky. Fairly nondescript players came through with heroic moments, especially in the post-season.  There were players like Cody Ross who had never been that good before, and he never was again.

Now there is a momentum to luck, a belief, when the team gets on another level. It's something that feeds on itself, the fans become part of it, and it's one of those wonders that makes baseball fun.  But it also comes and goes.

Luck translates most obviously into staying healthy.  And that's partly where the Giants' run of bad luck began at the All Star break two seasons ago, and continues.  This year they survived the first half with their three top starters and their star closer injured.  Now two of the starters are back and working themselves into form.  But the third is injured again, and the closer is not what he was. As for position players, as soon as one comes back, another gets injured.  Now it's Joe Panik.

So could the Giants make a run for the division?  Sure, it's possible--with luck.  Getting deep into the postseason would require even more luck: team of destiny kind of luck, the kind they had in 2010.  At least a couple of position players and several pitchers who are having good years will need to be phenomenal in the second half, and those having so-so years will need to be great, or at least have great moments in key games.  The talent is there.  It could happen.  With luck.  A lot of luck.

Warriors Winning Summer, Giants Poised

 The above excerpt about says it all concerning the Warriors and Boogie Cousins joining the team.  The consensus of smart people seems to be that Cousins could well be a tremendous addition late in the season and in the playoffs, depending on how well he comes back from a serious injury.  It certainly ups the excitement level for Golden State fans.

This happened a day after LeBron announced he was signing a four year deal with the Lakers--a coup for the great Magic Johnson that will add to the western conference sizzle next year.

Meanwhile the Warriors Summer League team looks pretty good, too.  So far they are indeed winning the summer.

In baseball, until they arrived in Colorado, the Giants were on a roll, winning 9 out of 10, including a sweep of the Diamondbacks.  They did so with some young arms they discovered because their starters were injured.  All three injured starters will be back by next week.  Will Smith is dominating the bullpen, though a right handed closer is still elusive.  With Strickland's stupid injury and Melancon's slow slow return to effectiveness, it's the team's biggest vulnerability.

But if things fall into place, the Giants are in fine position to make their move.  The second half of the season could be really interesting.

NBA Nonsense

It's blathering time for NBA talkers and writers.  How smart do you have to be to know that LeBron James is not staying in Cleveland, and is not going to Golden State?  Nor are the Warriors going to be trading any of their major players for anybody--who thinks like this?  Beyond that, it's a long summer.  Most likely for LeBron, though: the Lakers.

Sweep

The Golden State Warriors swept the Finals for their second championship in a row, and third in four years.

A few particularly good pieces on game 4, on Steph Curry, and FiveThirtyEight on the Warriors culture contributing to a dynasty, similar in some ways to the ESPN piece before the finals started.

Kevin Durant got his second Finals MVP in a row, though many observers thought it should have gone to Steph Curry.  But today's sportswriting is enthralled with stats, and KD's were arguably better.  That doesn't make him the MVP.  It was Steph.

Everybody's got their narrative, especially now that LeBron James revealed that he played the last 3 games with a hand he injured in frustration after the first game. But here's mine.

In these playoffs LeBron has often spent the first game feeling out the opposition, but in the first game of the Finals he came out firing.  The Dubs were good defensively but not quite keyed in to LeBron and the Cleveland players they'd never seen before.  At the end of the game, GS unquestionably got the breaks to keep the game tied in regulation, and they blew Cleveland away in overtime.

Another factor in game 1 was how to compensate for Andre Igoudala still being out.  Coach Kerr solved it by starting JaVale McGee, who jumpstarted the Warriors energy, especially in the second game.  The Dubs upped their defense, especially on James, and Curry caught fire late, pumping in a Finals record 9 three pointers.

Iggy came back for the third game but the Warriors had some difficulty integrating him again early, and his rust showed.  The Cavs decided to trap Curry, and Steph had an off night shooting as well.  But it was Iggy's presence on defense that freed KD from responsibility for James, and the combination of that with the Cavs obsession with Steph gave KD openings on the offense.  He responded with a magic touch on short, mid-range and especially long range shots, and carried the offense.

Statistically Steph had a bad shooting game but he made key buckets--especially his only three in the fourth quarter, which gave the momentum back to the Warriors.

Game 4 saw the Warriors take defensive intensity to a new level, while the Cavs sagged.  Numerous commentators saw the Cavs give in, but the Cavs weren't that good on defense the entire series.  It was their lack of defensive skills and defensive energy vs. Golden State, and the Warriors tremendous defense that made for the sweep.

At least one commentator criticized the Warriors bench before the Finals started, but even though starters always play more minutes in the Finals, the Warrior bench contributed mightily.  It was a team effort that won the championship, again.  Congratulations to the Golden State Warriors, 2017-18 NBA Champions!

After All That It's..Warriors v. Cavs

The seventh game of the western conference finals was as schizophrenic as the first six, but this time--and perhaps earlier-- it was likely due to the attrition of fatigue.  The Rockets set a record for 3 point futility--they missed 27 in a row.  It's still amazing to me that teams shoot as many as 27 threes.  As in game 6, they were energetic and sharp in the first half and fell apart in the second.  The Warriors had their monster third quarter, and kept the pressure on in the fourth.

The key to the Rockets taking this game--though nobody would ever say it--was to get at least one of the key Warriors in foul trouble early.  The likely candidates (because of their defensive responsibilities) were Green and Thompson.  They succeeded with Thompson, who was guarding Harden.  They limited him to 31 minutes and 19 points.  But a lot of those points--especially 3s--came at big moments in the game.

However they didn't succeed otherwise: KD, Steph Curry and Green all played exactly 44 minutes.  Green was a defensive beast, and chipped in 10 points.  Steph went off in the third, finished with a loud 27.  Kevin Durant redeemed himself with a quiet but lethal 34.

James Harden took a ton of shots, missed three quarters of a ton and ended up with 34, not many of them in the second half.  Chris Paul missed his second game in a row with the hamstring injury he suffered at the end of game 5.  Andre Iguodala was also out again for the Warriors.

By purist standards, it's amazing that either team won.  Golden State started with what their coach called "the worst quarter I've ever seen this team play" and Houston had a historically cold shooting night.  Which is why it was reasonably close at 101-92.

But credit the Warriors: it's the first game 7 they've ever won on the road, and their defense kept the mighty Rockets offense below 100 points most of the series.

So the Warriors meet the Cavs, beginning on Thursday at Golden State.  It should not be a close series, but this Warrior's team has become unpredictable.  They could lose the first game on sheer soreness and exhaustion, although LeBron is likely fatigued as well.

Anyway, it's the series that nobody wanted to see again: the pre-season favorites that as late as last week, didn't look like they would be meeting again, the fourth consecutive time for the championship.  I'm willing to bet that no game in the finals will eclipse the ratings for the game played tonight in Houston.  But it's LeBron and Steph and KD, so game on.

Remains of the Conference Finals

Update: After game 6, the Warriors titanic second half demonstrates which is the better team.  The question for game 7 Monday is will the better team show up.

Two games in a row in which the Warriors lost by 3 and 4 points, and didn't score 100 in either game.  One game can be nothing but itself.  But two games in a row starts to look like a pattern.  It starts to look like the Rockets have found something that works.

The Warriors must win their next two games to make the finals.  It is their test of character as a team, and it is specifically a test of Kevin Durant.

LeBron James has taken Cleveland to a seventh game in the East.  If he succeeds in carrying the Cavs to the Finals and Durant does not contribute to winning the West, the debate over who is the best player in the league is over.

The finals could be nothing like what everyone expected.  How weird if neither Golden State nor Cleveland is in them.  How much weirder still if Cleveland is, but the Warriors are not.

Going Into (and Out of) Game 5

The Western Conference finals enter the usually crucial fifth game, which the Houston Rockets made crucial again by winning the fourth game, topping the Warriors by 3 points at Golden State.

By doing so, the Rockets made it a series, and could take control of it with a game 5 win at home.  Because of home court and the short duration between games 3, 4 and 5, Houston will be the favorite.

The won't win, though.  If game 4 was a test of James Harden's legacy, game 5 is a test of the Warriors, and specifically Kevin Durant.  Durant had chances to nail down the win in game 4 but rushed his shots and failed to play Warrior team basketball.

The team that wins game 5 has two games to win their fourth, with both teams having a home game remaining.  They both won a game on the road.  By winning the first game, the Warriors still have an advantage in the game to game adjustments, going into game 5.

They should have Iguodala back, a crucial player against this Houston lineup.  The first three games were blowouts.  In game 4, the two teams alternated dominating quarters: the Warriors won the first and third, the Rockets won the second and fourth.  Game 5 may finally be the game that is close from start to finish.  Or not. These two teams are unusual.

The Rockets are hungry.  They know that the winner of this series is a prohibitive favorite to win the championship.  But the Warriors are champions, and more than in any game in the past two playoffs, they must prove it in game 5.

The Warriors will win game 5 on the road, and game 6 at home to wrap up the series.

There is not much to say about the Eastern conference, except that with both teams winning their home games, the advantage still lies with Boston.  The likely remaining question is whether they win it in 6 or 7.

Going Into Game 4

The Golden State Warriors won game 3 at home by the historic margin of 41 points, and set a new NBA record for consecutive wins at home in the playoffs.  Best of all for the home team, Steph Curry had a monster third quarter, hitting 7 of 7, including four 3s.  He became the game's high scorer with 35.

As one commentator observed, when Steph gets hot at the Oracle Arena, for fans it's like a religious experience.  It envelopes that building in wonder and joy.

But as the Warriors know, this is half of what they must do.  Houston must win game 4 to have any reasonable chance in the series, and the Warriors must win it to stay in control of the series.

The anomaly of the series so far is that there hasn't yet been a game in which both teams play at a high level.  We haven't yet seen that game that comes down to the last minutes.  If we are going to see one, it's probably going to be game 4.

James Harden's likely MVP won't be worth much to his reputation unless he can lead his team to a victory in game 4.  Chris Paul must be hearing the talk that he doesn't look right on the floor.  Can he counter that talk, as Steph Curry did?

 But the Warriors at home know this is their best shot at avoiding the uncertainty of a game 7 in Houston.  It's usually game 5 that is the most significant, after game 1.  But in this series, it's game 4.  The situation suggests it will be a brutally physical game, and the final score will be close.

The fly in the ointment for the Dubs is whether Andre Iguodala is healthy enough to perform well in game 4.  On Monday he was listed as doubtful because of a bruised knee.  However, X-rays came back clean, so it will all depend on how sore his knee is on Tuesday morning.

Game 4 is at 6 pm at Oracle.

In the East, Cleveland won their home games and the series is tied at 2-2.  So it's still a series.  It was all LeBron in game 4, so it seems the series is up to him. Boston doesn't have to win anywhere but in Boston.  Cleveland has to take one on the road--even if it's game 7.

In baseball, Brandon Belt is on a home run tear.  He's hit 5 homers in the past seven games, including a three run shot that provided the winning margin on Sunday for the San Francisco Giants.  Brandon Crawford is also having a terrific month at the plate.  After winning streaks, losing streaks and splits, the Giants head out on an 8 game homestand at .500, and in the hunt.

Going Into Game Three

The first two games of the western conference finals fit the playoff pattern: each team has a blowout win, and conversely a loss that makes them look very vulnerable.  If this pattern holds, the rest of the games to be played will be closer, including at least one decided in the last minute, or the last few seconds.

With their commanding win in game 2, the Rockets have confidence in their game.  The Warriors, who frightened fans with their regular season tendency--different from the past two seasons--to fall apart and get beat big, have rattled their fans for sure with this game, and perhaps impressed themselves with what they need to do every game.

What the second game showed was what I proposed as the Rockets path to victory: the Rockets made adjustments, then played at the top of their game, while the Warriors played at the bottom of theirs.  Two games with a day between on the road is as hard as the playoff schedule gets.  It seems unlikely that Steph and Klay will miss so many shots at home.  It seems unlikely that the Warriors play as badly again--but given the regular season, there's some doubt.

Steph Curry will need to have a big game to silence the questions about his recovery from his latest injury.  He denies that he's not as quick physically, but he did that two years ago also, when he was in fact not fully recovered.

Now the Warriors must win their two home games in order to stay in control of this series.  They then have the luxury of not needing game 5, and taking the series with game 6 at home.  Anything short of taking the next two games is dangerous.  That has to be their mindset.

In the eastern conference finals, game 3 is an obvious must-win for Cleveland at home.  Having lost the first two games on the road, they must win all their home games plus one in Boston.  They don't seem to have the firepower or the defense to make up this deficit, as they made up a 3-1 deficit two years ago in the finals to win the championship.  Not if the Celtics stay as healthy as they are now.

The East plays game 3 Saturday, the West on Sunday.

Conference Finals: The Story So Far

We should be used to this by now--after every game 1 victory for Golden State, nobody in sports media can figure out how they are going to lose.  But teams make adjustments, and I'd be surprised if the Rockets don't at least make a game of it tonight.

To be fair to the commentators, the Rockets seem locked into the style that didn't work, so maybe they can't make enough adjustments. Right now the Warriors look like the better and more flexible team. They have more than one way to win.  But if the Rockets successfully adjust their offense and defense and win the second game, then game 5 looms large.

If they don't adjust, or if they do adjust and still lose, then it is pretty much over. It's more than a math truism to observe that if the Dubs win tonight, they very well could sweep.  The problem for the Rockets is that they need to play an almost perfect game, and the Dubs must slump.  The Rockets can't stop Durant, but he could have a poor shooting night. Still, they have to worry about Steph Curry and/or Klay Thompson going off.

It will be interesting to see what lineup Coach Kerr starts.  Will he rest Iggy as he did between road games in the last series?  That lineup didn't get the team off to a great start anyway.

 We'll know more about how long a series this is likely to be after game 2.  But in almost any scenario, the Warriors should prevail.

It also looks very much like the Warriors' Finals opponent will be the Boston Celtics. The Cavs have not only lost the first two games, they looked bad doing it.  The Celtics also look to be a stronger opponent for the Warriors, especially because of their coach and his relationship with his players.  That combined with their youth could win them a couple of games.  But the Dubs will expose their inexperience.   It could be a respectably long series.

The Giants got a victory in Pittsburgh to break their road trip losing streak, and promptly won the first two against the Reds at home.  After living off their rookies and young players in the early season, the veterans are starting to come through at the plate.  Some exciting baseball back at what seems like a still not regularly sold out field.

The Storm Before the Games

Going into the weekend before the NBA conference finals, a few especially interesting takes among the usual noise.

While the ESPN experts pretty unanimously pick Golden State (and Cleveland), the numbers folks at 538 say that Houston has a 79% chance of going to the Finals.

However, this prediction itself was panned by the big lead.

Sports Illustrated was pretty direct in its predictions:

"As long as everyone is healthy, Golden State really shouldn't be threatened by anyone. I hope I'm wrong about this, and it would be great if we're about to enter two weeks of Warriors–Rockets chaos, but Steph Curry already warned everyone about overthinking it. Nobody can guard Kevin Durant. If he plays his best basketball over the next month, the playoffs are already over."

The rest of SI's analysis is interesting--and well-written.

A lot of the comments in other places as well focus on the difference between playoff basketball and regular season.  The Rockets found themselves in the regular season, but the Warriors know how to perform in the playoffs.  SI emphasized the efficiency of Steph Curry and KD, and the level that Draymond hits (and hit immediately in the first series) in the playoffs.

But 538 does have some good points, especially the potential importance of home court, which belongs to Houston.

As a rule of thumb from just a viewer, the crucial games in a playoff series are 1 and 5 and of course 7.  The ball is literally in the court of the home team in game 1--victory by the visitors (the Dubs, in this case) is very big.  On the other hand, the visitors figure they've done their job if they get one win out of the first two.

In a fairly evenly matched series, the first game is especially crucial, because the other team always adjusts to a defeat.  Perhaps because of these alternating currents, the winner of game 5 almost always wins the series.

 If the Warriors win on Monday, the Rockets are in serious trouble.  But this will still be a series, every game until it's over.

Meanwhile, after their surge, the San Francisco Giants have lost 5 straight, mostly due to pitchers being beaten up and their hitters striking out.  But Andrew McCutchen did get a hero's welcome his first game back in Pittsburgh.  That's great--the city's sports fans weren't always so classy.  There were video tributes and standing ovations--they love the Cutch in Pittsburgh.

The Western Showdown is Coming

Update Tuesday: As was foretold you, the Warriors and Rockets both advanced to the championship round in their fifth game on Tuesday, and by nearly identical scores.  Now comes nearly a week of analysis and prediction, but at this point it seems these teams are pretty evenly matched.  If the series goes to 7 games, Houston has the traditional home court edge.  This much can be said now: the Rockets have been playing their best basketball of the year.  To beat them, the Warriors will need to play their best basketball of the year.


When you are down 2-0 in a playoff series, you coach and play for only the next game.  But when you are up 2-0, you can play also for the series.  That's what Coach Kerr did for the third game of round 2.  Knowing that the Warriors were to play two games on the road with only a day between them, he sent out a lineup that was different from the kind of lineup that had won the first two games.  He did it to rest Iggy and to be able to limit Steph Curry's minutes and lessen his role in his second game back from injury.  In terms of conditioning, the second game back--after the adrenalin rush of the first return--is the most difficult.

But Kerr returned to the small lineup, his best five players (he said) for the fourth game on Sunday, and the Dubs defeated New Orleans by 26 points.  It will be shocking if the series doesn't end on the Warriors home floor in game 5.

Houston seems just as likely to end their series, so the predicted Western showdown is about to occur, and it promises to be the hardest-fought series of the entire post-season.

In the east, it may take Toronto a long time to recover from its complete collapse and capitulation to the Cavs.  Game 4 was barely contested.  TO gave up.  There could be major changes, and should be coaching changes, there soon.

Philadelphia avoided a similar collapse by beating back Boston in their fourth game, but the odds of course still are that Cleveland will meet the surprising Celtics.  With Kyrie down, the Celtics are really a wild card in this series but certainly start out as underdogs.  The Cavs lucked out with their opponent in the second round, and may have again in the championship round.  But neither team seems a match for either team from the West, and in either case it looks to be another short finals series.

Stephless No More

Steph is back.

Steph Curry came off the bench against New Orleans in the second game of the second round--an idea I had as a strategic advantage. So I assumed Coach Kerr had a similar thought about confusing the Pelicans defense.  But apparently it was Steph's idea.

His shooting was there from the start.  He ended up with 28 points.  The rust showed in bad passes and not anticipating Anthony Davis' ability to block shots. He should be up to speed by Friday, when he is set to start in the third game, this time in New Orleans.

Coach Kerr's decision to field a small lineup against the speedy Pelicans is working.   Judging by the first two games, I expect the Pelicans to win one, maybe two, but the Dubs to prevail in 5 or 6.

The other Western Conference match-up got interesting Wednesday when Utah defeated Houston, tying that series at 1-1.  Now it goes to Utah.  Yes, very interesting.

In the East: How many miracles can LeBron perform to keep Cleveland going?  It took seven games for them to win the first round.  The Cavs won the first game of the second round over Toronto by coming back to tie and then winning in overtime. They led the game only at the end.  Everything depends on how Toronto responds to this game.  But at this point, it seems the Cavs dinking into the finals really would be a miracle.

Thursday update: TO responded badly, and down 2-0 on the road, they've got a massive hill to climb, starting with their confidence. Undermanned  Boston is surprising many by handling golden Philadelphia.  And the Houston-Utah series is 1-1.  That's three wows right there. 

Meanwhile after a challenging April the Giants just climbed back over .500.  They've won 4 straight series, including one over the Dodgers.  Highlight of Wednesday was the return of lh reliever Will Smith.  They're also providing some exciting baseball for Giants fans.

NBA Playoffs Taking Shape

Heading for the second round, the NBA playoffs begin to take shape.  The big news so far is the New Orleans Pelicans.  They dispatched the favored Portland Trailblazers in four emphatic games, for the only sweep of the round.  If the Golden State Warriors finish their first round with a 5th game victory at home tonight, they will meet this weekend to begin the second round.

The Pelicans have strong momentum, always important in the postseason.  The Warriors are still without Steph Curry and may remain so for awhile. They are otherwise banged up as well.

New Orleans looked to be a strong challenger for whoever played them, especially Houston and Golden State.  By dropping to second seed, the Warriors drew the Pelicans, the team most likely to slow down the Rockets, and perhaps eliminate them.  Now that's not going to happen in this round, and the Warriors are in for a fight.  So the Warriors-Pelicans could be a difficult and even fateful series.

Utah is likely to emerge as the winner against OKC, which may also be good for the Rockets, as OKC is the other team that gave them trouble.  The Rockets looked rocky in the first round, but they dropped 50 points in one quarter of game 4 on Monday, which has to be getting everybody's attention.

In the East, Cleveland has looked shaky-- their first round will go at least six games, and a long series early is not good for the Cavs.  Philadelphia looks the strongest, with Toronto behind them, with Boston a dark horse.  Philadelphia feels like the team of destiny there.  The Pelicans are a legitimate dark horse team in the West, with the Warriors and the Rockets still most likely to meet in the conference championship series.   But that's likely a month away, so hang on.

The disturbing trend of the first round has been the acrimony, fighting and possibly even attempts to injure.  It hasn't affected the Warriors yet--the Dubs and the Spurs are two of the classiest teams in the league--but egos elsewhere are out of the control.

After a hard luck start (losing your top three starting pitchers and top two relief pitchers seems to qualify) the San Francisco Giants began to stabilize in the past week or so.  Getting two of those pitchers back--both with strong first starts--probably helped, but so did the cold veteran bats coming around.

But the big news was the return of Mac Williamson with a whole new stroke.  He homered to win one game, and on Monday, blasted the longest home run by a Giant at home in several years, 464 feet, to win that game.   With Williamson an unexpected jolt in the outfield, the surprisingly (at least to me) effective job Hunter Strickland has done as the closer, and the strong starts some of the young pitchers have made, could it be that the Giants luck is finally, finally turning around?