For the Roses

Update 4/27: As noted below, both Curry and Thompson are banged up with ankle injuries, and today Coach Kerr called them questionable for Sunday.  Ankle injuries can linger, especially if players play through them--Curry in particular but also Thompson can be hampered significantly by these minor injuries that affect shots, quickness, etc.  If Golden State loses this series, their failure to come out strong in game 5 of the first round will be the reason.  That meant another game, in which both of these players sustained injuries, plus it meant they lose a day to recover before the series begins.


The conventional wisdom at this point is that this year's NBA championship could very well be decided by the western conference second round match-up of Golden State and Houston.   Most experts still give the Warriors the edge but there are doubts.

That's because the Warriors seem intent on making it harder for themselves.  They blew a 31 point lead in the second game with the Clippers, while Houston won the first three against Utah, making it likely that they would get a few days extra rest.  But this past Wednesday, opportunity knocked on the Golden State door when Utah suppressed Houston long enough to win game 4 (and promptly lost game 5.)  So all the Warriors had to do was win game 5 at home, and the Houston advantage in rest would be wiped out.

So like true champions did they take advantage of every little advantage?  Not exactly.  They lost to the Clippers again at home.  Just like that, Houston regained its extra rest, even though the Warriors bested the Clips by 19 points in game 6 in LA to take the series. KD scored 50 and Draymond Green excelled on both sides. Once again Steph came out flat, ending up with 24 points.

Now the Warriors start the second round on short rest and with both Steph Curry and Thompson looking banged-up after the game--the real risk run when a team fails to close out a series.  No word immediately on whether they'll be able to start on Sunday.  The only good news for the team's health is that Draymond Green's wounded hand didn't hamper his shot tonight.

Granted that the Clippers exceeded everybody's expectations, marking them as a young team with a future.  If they get a star in the off-season they will be truly formidable.  But the Warriors showed vulnerabilities that could hurt them against Houston--lack of defense, lack of clutch scoring, and above all, lack of urgency.  It became a question of how much they want the championship, for it is clear that Houston is hungry.

This is a series than could easily go the full seven.  Some experts see Houston as weaker than last year, but then, without Cousins, so are the Dubs.  A lot could depend on how each team's bench plays.  Coaching is probably a wash, as neither side is all that good at adjusting during the game.  (The Clippers had the edge in coaching in round one.)  Momentum favors Houston, and if you count Cousins, so does health.

Did the Dubs learn enough in round one?  That KD can score 45 and Steph 25, but if they don't defend they can still lose?  They have to hope that two of their big scorers (KD, Curry, Thompson) have big nights each game, and either Draymond or Iguadala, and one or another of the bench players come through on offense, and everybody plays tenacious defense. The Dubs missed Cousin's potential scoring firepower against the Clippers, and they might miss it a lot this round.

The Warriors can defend, but Houston's defense has improved down the stretch.  On any given night Houston can score a ton of points.  It's not going to be easy for the Dubs to win this series, and if they aren't serious from the opening tip-off to the end, they could actually find themselves with a short one that has a bad outcome.

Golden State's habit of losing at home makes the old "win the first and second, win the fifth" formula obsolete, and even a 3-1 lead is no longer even a leading indicator for either team.  This is likely to be a series in which the outcome is never predictable until there is nothing left to predict, because one of the teams has won four games.

Playoffs Become Real

On the first day of the 2019 NBA playoffs, only the Golden State Warriors escaped "Upset Saturday."  Their margin of victory was larger than their game warranted however.  In their second game against the LA Clippers, they managed to lose a 31 point lead in the third quarter, and lose the game in the biggest comeback in playoff history.

That was not the full extent of their misery.  They also lost Boogie Cousins to a season ending injury.  Their second half showcased serious flaws--undisciplined players, turnovers, and worst of all, panic.  All the most frustrating aspects of this year's Warriors were on view: their postgame analyses are always accurate, they spot the flaws in their game, and then fail to correct them.  Kevin Durant sounds like he has his head in the game, yet he followed a two technical and ejection night with fouling out early enough in the fourth quarter not to be on the court when the game suddenly got serious.  That doesn't sound like an elite player with his head in the game.  Both Splash Brothers had shots that might have won the game that didn't fall in the last seconds.

All that said, I recall that the championship Bull and Lakers had inexplicable playoff failures like this in their multi-ring runs.  And when play resumes in LA, the Clippers have about zero chance of winning game three.  (Of course, at the start of the third quarter of the second game, the Dubs chances to win were posted at 99.9.)

But the biggest test of the playoffs for the Warriors will come soon after.  They are very likely to meet the Rockets in the second round.  If Houston continues to dominate Utah, they will be the more rested team, and nobody wants to face a rested James Harden.  The Rockets have been playing at a higher level, and right now they are the healthier team.  Whether the Warriors are an actual team anymore, rather than a collection of high performance players, is a question opened to doubt by the first two playoff games.  And this most recent game suggests that home court advantage ain't what it used to be for the Warriors.

So suddenly the playoffs are real.  The Warriors are not confidently coasting to a championship.  However, if this was going to happen, it was going to happen in the playoff's second game, and it's best that it did.  The playoffs in general are about health and momentum.  Houston has both of those now, the Warriors don't.  Playoff games are about establishing a rhythm early and maintaining it for the entire game.  The Warriors used to know how to do that.  They'll need to relearn it and enact it for every game of the playoffs.

 

Champs, Part One

Steph Curry for the Warriors' last regular season game at Oracle;
the team wore throwback uniforms from the "We Believe" era.

On Sunday in the last regular season game ever in Oracle Arena, the Golden State Warriors beat the LA Clippers to clinch the Western Conference championship, and home court advantage throughout the conference playoffs.

The Dubs led at the half but put the game away with an astounding 42-18 third quarter, leading to the 131-104 victory.  Steph Curry followed his 40 point game with 27.

But with only three days left in the regular season, only two things are certain for the Warriors: they will have home court advantage throughout the western conference playoffs, but not the finals, if Milwaukee is their opponent.  Otherwise, almost everything is still to be determined.

The western conference teams are set, but there are battles for seeding, principally at the top and at the bottom. At the bottom, the Spurs and Clips have identical records, with OKC having the same number of wins but down one in the loss column.  At the top, the Nuggets and Rockets have both won 53 games, with the Nuggets up one in the losses.  But Portland is close enough to move up.  In fact, the whole seeding after Golden State could change by the end of the season this week.

Things are a little more stable in the East, though the eighth position is still up for grabs. Detroit, Charlotte and Miami all have a mathematical chance.  Brooklyn and Orlando are in, but have identical records, so the seeding at the bottom is still open.

Coach Kerr will rest his top 8 players in the two remaining games (four each game), both on the road.  The only drawback to losing these games is losing the possibility of home court over Toronto, if that's the finals match-up.

There isn't much doubt that the greatest challenge to the Dubs in the West is once again the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets are peaking at just the right time, as are the Warriors.  Both teams are healthy going into the playoffs.  I haven't followed the Rockets to know if any other western team poses a significant challenge to them, but the Warriors know how to beat their other possible conference opponents.

Even though the absence of Lebron seems to make the finals easier, the eastern field is actually stronger this year.  Any of the top four teams is capable of winning games against the Warriors, and since they don't play each other much, there is an element of unpredictability.  Generally the West is still stronger, but it's not the clear western dominance this year as it has been in recent years.  

Stretch Run

The Golden State Warriors have an even dozen games left to play in the regular season: seven at home, five away.  Though many of their opponents aren't playoff bound, the Dubs have been prone to relax too much with less capable teams, and there are a few opponents that have given them legitimate trouble.  But winning out is not at all impossible.

At the moment they are holding on to the top position in the West, but Denver is right with them.  However, the Nuggets have 13 games left, 8 of them on the road--and they are not a good road team.  The Dubs host them on April 2.

Coach Kerr is signaling that the Warriors are out to win these games, even though resting players for the playoffs could be a reasonable strategy.  And avoiding injury is crucial.

Have the Warriors found a way to integrate Cousins in the offense, by slowing down a bit while still emphasizing ball movement in half court sets?  Now the return of Bogut adds another dimension at the center position.  Cousins is out at the moment with an ankle injury; in case of injury, foul trouble or when more defense is needed, Bogut is another veteran option.

 It is unlikely but not inconceivable that the Warriors will end up with a better won-lost than Milwaukee in the East.  But home court in the West is the first task.  It certainly is an advantage over Denver (though the Dubs have handled them on both courts), and a needed one against the one team that has given them the most trouble this year: Houston.  Nobody knows what their regular season games mean, however, since a key player on one of the teams was out for all of their matchups--and the team that lacked a key member won the game 3 out of 4.

Warriors May Be Losing Durant With Sloppy Play and No-Change Giants Reach for Redemption

After weeks of winning, the Golden State Warriors have stumbled badly after the All-Star Break.  Each loss was more embarrassing than the last, culminating so far in losing to the lowly Suns.

They sort of did this last year, but this year I detect a difference: it's making Kevin Durant unhappy.  Some of his comments to reporters are downright cynical.  It's likely the Dubs had a good chance of retaining Durant, but unless things change for the rest of the season, they're apt to lose him this summer, simply because playing for the Warriors may not be fun anymore.  The joy isn't there.  He may look for it elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants are playing pre-season baseball, having made no big trades or acquisitions in the off-season.  Mainly they have a team of players who had bad years last year and are aching for redemption.  Maybe that will turn out to be a good thing, in Bruce Bochy's last season.

They lost out to the Phillies on obtaining Bryce Harper, but that may not turn out to be much of a loss.  Harper is volatile, a me first player who seems like he might turn out to be a bad teammate, and could very well crash and burn long before his ridiculously long contract is up.  That he made his decision to not play in San Francisco partly because of California taxes tells me that baseball and community are not competitive values in his world.  He's not Giants material.

Road Warriors--and Giannis' Crazy Picks

The Golden State Warriors were already on a tear when Boogie Cousins joined the starting five.  They've since been winning by big margins, tight games and coming from behind.  They've won 16 of their last 18 games, including an 11 game winning streak.  They've eclipsed 145 points twice.  At the moment they lead the West by 2.5 games.

Especially intriguing is their road record.  The Road Warriors have won 11 in a row, a streak that's still alive.  The Warriors used to be unbeatable at home, but perhaps distractions or just regular life have fooled with their focus, but they have been sloppier at home than on the road recently.  On the road, with nothing but basketball, they seem more locked in.  Of course, the home fires will be burning more fiercely as the playoffs come closer.

The All-Star break is coming soon, emphasis on break.  The festivities highlight is likely to be the 3 point shooting match between the Curry brothers.  Thanks to the crazy picks by Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James got the better team, by a lot. That he's also getting to audition possible Lakers teammates is at least a bonus for him.  But Team LeBron is so much better that spectators are going to have to count on a certain playfulness and low-key spirit to avoid an embarrassing blowout.

The Superless Bowl (Updated)

Update: ESPN tries to sell it as an epic defensive battle, but this Super Bowl is generally being panned as the worst ever--the Boring Bowl.  It was a game between a team everybody outside MA hates and a team without fans.  Not surprisingly, it got the worst TV ratings in SB history.


Superficially, NFL conference championship Sunday was a success: two seesaw games, settled in overtime, with the underdog winning both on the road.  But really it was a travesty, with one game won on a questionable call and the other on a blown no-call.  In the latter part of both games, it was already clear that the defenses couldn't stop anybody, and the team with the ball last would win.

Plus it was all predictable--all you had to do was read the experts, parading their stats to show that the Rams didn't have a chance and the Patriots not much better off.  When the experts gang up like 5 year olds in a soccer scrum, you know to bet the other way.  Just as I knew that when the experts went on a feeding frenzy declaring Tom Brady finished and the Patriots has-beens when they lost to the Steelers, that in a couple of months the Pats would be back in the Bowl.

Problem now is, it's a Superbowl that nobody outside SoCal and New England will care about.  The matchup everyone wanted was Kansas City and New Orleans--the upstart KC with their freshman phenom quarterback against an old favorite with an aging veteran quarterback still playing at a high level.

Is anybody interested in seeing Brady win another one?  Is there anything interesting about the Rams, besides the money they spent getting here?

Of course, if the experts agree that this could be the lowest rated Superbowl ever, I might have to change my mind.

Steelers' 2018 Year of Travesty

Before the season began, the Pittsburgh Steelers were touted as a Super Bowl contender.  A slimmed down Big Ben was throwing bullets at training camp.  Antonio Brown was back, one of the best receivers in the game, if not the very best.  And despite his evident dissatisfaction with the Steelers' management, Le'Veon Bell, one of the best if not the very best running back in the game, would still be a Steeler for at least this season.

In an unprecedented situation, Bell did not come back for training camp, then for much of the season.  Nevertheless, after a shaky start, the Steelers compensated and started winning.  They found another stellar running back in James Connor, and another wide receiver threat in JuJu-Smith Schuster.  Their suspect defense jelled.   The Steelers ripped off six straight victories and at 7-2-1 they seemed poised to win their division.  With Bell widely believed to be rejoining the team, they could challenge anyone in the playoffs.

Then it all started to fall apart.  Steelers management again would not meet Bell's demands, and he did not rejoin the team.  Then the Steelers lost consecutive games to the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders.  They rallied for a rare win against the Patriots before losing a must-win to the New Orleans Saints.  Not only did they lose the division to a resurgent Baltimore, they didn't even make the playoffs. The season ended on the football field with a whimper, when Smith Schuster fumbled before the tying field goal could be attempted.  An earlier game slipped away when a field goal attempt ended with the kicker falling down.  An anemic victory over the Bengals came too late.

Some of it seemed like the law of averages catching up--they'd won a few games with last minute scores, then they lost a few when they didn't score at the end of the game.  But there was trouble behind the scenes, and once the season was over, the whimper became a bang.

The explosions are still going on.  Antonio Brown seems about to be in open warfare against his coach and Steelers management.  Other players are at each other's throats in social media.  This team is blowing itself up, and nobody knows who is going to be left standing.

The factors involved seem to range from Steelers' management's fatal errors in dealing with Bell to the multiplier effect of social media in creating drama.  This is not the cohesive,  disciplined Steelers team of historical lore.  It's a mind-boggling sight for Steelers fans, and it's far from over.

A Tale of Two Dubs

Embarrassed by a blowout home loss to the Bucks, the Golden State Warriors went to Milwaukee and controlled the game for the victory.  It was a low-scoring game that the Dubs won with a smothering defense--Coach Kerr called it their best defensive effort of the year.  The Bucks tried to replicate the game plan they won with--swarming the Dubs' scoring stars and daring others to make shots.  But those others made shots, and so at key moments did the stars.  Key lesson: defense can win low scoring games, i.e. games when your shots aren't falling.

The Warriors had lost in Toronto while short-handed.  But the Raptors came to Golden State on the second night of a back-to-back, without their star player, and handed the Dubs a 20 point loss.  For the Warriors it was low-scoring, with Steph Curry in particular not hitting.  But it seemed to be the successful execution of a sophisticated game plan that won it for the Raptors, who are now officially the beast of the East and the favorite to wind up in the finals with Golden State.

The Warriors' energy was lacking, and after his long absence while injured, Curry was due for a letdown game.  Key lesson: ineffective defense can lose low-scoring games. But also, there exists a strategy that can win against the Warriors.

After this game, TO lost to Portland while the Dubs pulled out a last minute win in Sacramento--with lots of scoring but a final score that indicated less than stellar defense.  Curry suggested that with the return of Draymond Green the Warriors are still getting used to their rotations again.  Now the Dubs face a bunch of games in December, mostly at home, that this recent experience suggests they'll need to play focused to win.

It Won't Be Easy

To think I've been reading about the Warriors to escape from politics.

Sports commentators started out saying the Draymond Green conflict with Kevin Durant was no big deal; now they're certain that it means Durant will leave the Warriors this summer.  Meanwhile the Dubs have lost three of their last four games, and face some tough competition in the coming week on the road.

But conventional wisdom is..well, conventional.  It's what everybody says because..everybody is saying it.  For example, the loud complaints that the Warriors were unbeatable and the season could just as well be cancelled.  Now the warning that the only way the Dubs get defeated is due to internal strife.

The season is still very young, and some teams doing well now may fade while others now struggling could get themselves together.  But even when the Dubs were on a long winning streak, it was becoming clear that there is competition in the NBA, and not just for second place.

In the western conference, Houston has reemerged as the Warriors nemesis in their lopsided victory this week.  Their defensive switching still mesmerizes the Warriors.  If a playoff series goes to the team that wants it more, then Houston--with a weaker bench but more experience--could knock them off.

Meanwhile the Lakers could be the Cavs of the western conference--a team that can do just enough to let King James win them a series, or a team that can't cope at all.  Portland at this point is maybe a team to watch later.

But what's clear now is that, without Steph Curry or a theoretical Boogie Cousins, the Warriors can be defeated.  Injuries in the playoffs could be enough to dethrone them.

That's even before they face the Eastern champs, be it Boston, Toronto or Milwaukee, any of them pretty much guaranteed to be stronger competition than the Cavs.

The Warriors lost in Dallas tonight but by only a bucket, without Curry or Green, and with a good spread of scoring beyond Durant's 37.  Now they play a better team on the second night of a back to back.  The coming week may not be pretty, but the Warriors will rise again.

On the other hand, if anybody thought it was going to be easy, welcome to the NBA.

Klay Thompson--Remember Him?

 Klay Thompson had made 5 three point shots out of 36 tries--in the previous 8 games this season.  In Chicago he made 6 three pointers-- in the first quarter.  And by the third quarter he set a new NBA all time record for made threes: 14.  The record-holder had been (of course) Steph Curry.

I saw a YouTube full game video with the Chicago announcers who never had a clue that Klay had broken this record.  They made up something for why Steph raised his hands in celebration and the bench went wild.

But the above video of Klay's points (including the 14 threes) has the Warriors announcers and they were on it.  There's no streak shooter like Klay, and though the Bulls' defense was terrible, defenses don't much matter when Klay gets hot.  Another one for the ages.

Not to be overlooked, but all the Warriors were setting up Klay's shot, and Steph Curry sacrificed continuing his record-setting pace in points and three point shots to help Klay go for the record that erases Curry's record.   It's also worth mentioning that Curry had 11 threes in three quarters the other night, and could have broken his own record if he'd played the fourth quarter, chalking up 15 or more threes.

Then again, Klay didn't play the fourth quarter on Monday either.

Steph Curry--Remember Him?

Just a few games into the season, but so far Steph Curry is reclaiming his status as a wonder of the basketball world.

 A two-time MVP and 3 point shooting phenom who literally changed how NBA basketball is played, he's been kind of an afterthought the past two seasons.  But in this young year, he's back. He's scoring at around a 30 point game average, but last night against Washington he had one of those signature Curry games.  He scored 51 points in three quarters (really, in two quarters plus a little more.) He hit 11 three point shots, and extended his series of records for 3s that is too dominant to go into.

The Warriors were so far ahead after 3 quarters that he didn't play in the fourth, so there's no telling what records he might have set.

 Here are two things I think about now when I think about Steph Curry.  First, that he ends his daily shooting regimen with 100 three pointers.  That's 100, to end his workout.

Second, there are these video ads on YouTube with famous people in various fields--acting, film directing, writing, etc.--advertising their Master Classes.  In his, Curry talks about what shooters focus on when they shoot.  The front of the rim of the basket?  The square over the basket on the backboard?  Curry says he focuses on the metal rings through which the nylon of the basket are threaded.

 He said that from any angle he can usually see at least two or three of them.  He focuses on these as he takes his shot.

Consider then that Steph Curry, the documented best long range shooter in NBA history, is often shooting from about 30 feet away, or a little less and a lot more.

He is also known for one of the quickest releases in basketball--and he's even quicker this year.  No stare at the basket, dribble and set his feet and shoot.  His shot is off in a shot, as you can see from several long-range shots in the video from last night.  How can he even see those metal rings from 30 feet and beyond, let alone focus on them in a millisecond?

 Apparently Curry was hitting regularly from half court in his warmups last evening.  But it isn't until the game starts that shooters know if they're hot.  Game announcers often suggest that a particularly long range shot after several makes is a "heat check."  Once a shooter is hot, teammates look for them to shoot.  And in the first and third quarters last night, Curry's shot was on fire.  Several shots were not only from amazing distances and in difficult situations, they were beautiful. So it's more than distraction.  It's wonder.


In the MLB postseason, I've gone from a Yankees fan (because Cutch was starting) and Brewer's fan to a Red Sox fan.  I've got some Boston cred--I lived and worked there in the 70s.  For all their power hitting rep, I've been most impressed with their fielding. Andrew Benintendi's leaping catch in the second game was a thing of beauty.

Start Times

The NBA preseason is over, the 2018-19 season about to begin.  As of this writing, the Golden State Warriors still have roster moves to make, and I'm guessing there may be surprises, and maybe even an acquisition.

The Dubs enter as heavy favorites to win it all.  However, the preseason suggested some vulnerabilities.  The starting All-Star four seem absolutely ready, though they haven't played together much.  In both games against the Lakers, one star was on the bench.

But the bench players are another matter.  Against the Lakers last night, they were the gang that couldn't shoot.  The Lakers enter the season with a much more productive bench.

Add to this the mystery of Patrick McCaw, that the Dubs were treating like a star of the future.  He didn't sign either of the generous contracts he was offered, and is reportedly not even talking to the club. That's a loss to the bench, though also an opportunity for someone to step up.  So far, it doesn't look like anyone has.

The vulnerability seems to be on the wings, and perhaps at the point.  The Warriors need production out of the second unit, and don't want to depend on the veterans who will be crucial for the playoffs.  They hope that Jonas Jerebko will be a three point threat, something the second unit lacked last year.  But the preseason didn't show it.

The starting five looks solid, though, with Damian Jones and Kevon Looney ready to be the big until the much anticipated entry of All-Star acquisition DeMarcus Cousins.  Jordan Bell seems more of a project but has a lot of potential.

Maybe the sloppy play of the reserves against the Lakers will turn out to be just a learning experience.  And the overall team will look different by the time the season actually starts on Tuesday against the Thunder.

End Times

The San Francisco Giants hit into five double plays--two to end the 8th and 9th-- in a futile effort to stop the Dodgers in the first game of the last series of the season, losing by the familiar score of 3-1.  The 1 is the familiar part.

Madison Bumgarner started, and though he has a year left on his contract, lots of speculation that it's his last year in San Francisco.  That seems nearly certain for outfielder Hunter Pence, who has been making the best of his last few games with home runs and exciting play.  He gave what may have been an exit interview about why SF fans are special.

Everyone expects a lot of changes, on the field and off, for the Giants for next year, as the championship seasons of 10, 12 and 14 become distant memories.  Remaining players of those years--especially Pence--are still fan favorites.

And so the inexplicable season ends with only one obvious observation: it turned out after all that the vulnerability wasn't pitching--both the young starters and the bullpen did pretty well for the last part of the season--but hitting, especially hitting for power.  That may turn out to be even harder to remedy than pitching.

The postseason is still undecided for a number of other teams--including the Dodgers--so it's time for my annual lecture on the proper use of the term "clinch."  A team clinches something--a division championship, a wild card berth for instance--when they will win it at the end of the season even if they lose every game still to be played.  The term only has meaning when there are games yet to play.  Otherwise teams "win" championships etc.

Yet "clinched" is often misused when the proper term is "won."   In other words, when a team wins the final game of a series, or in the NBA for example when they win four games in a playoff series so that the full seven are not played, they have won--not clinched--the championship.  It is possible in the NBA to clinch a playoff spot in the regular season when there are games yet to be played, but a team can only win (or lose) a playoff series.

End of lecture about the end of the season.  I must add that I've become a temporary Yankees fan since Andrew McCutchen has been playing left field for New York.  He got a hit, scored and drove in a run in today's win over the Red Sox.  I should give props to the SF Giants front office for making sure they traded Cutch to a contender, so that he can play in the postseason.  In Pittsburgh he played in a couple of wild card games and one division championship series, but not beyond that.

I'm not yet sure however that my Yankeeness will overcome my Boston ties if and when they play each other for the division championship.  Then again, the Yankees were the first AL team I followed as a kid, when they had Mantle, Maris, Moose Scowron etc. and one of my pitching heroes, Whitey Ford.  But I think seeing Cutch get into the World Series will overcome my Boston reflex.

And with the end comes a beginning--of Golden State Warriors basketball!  It should be an exciting season.  It starts with nearly everybody healthy, a lot of young players who will get big minutes, and the integration of Boogie Cousins into the starting lineup, which may start sooner than later.

Shame

In his first season in San Francisco, Andrew McCutchen leads the Giants in home runs, RBIs, hits, runs scored, doubles, stolen bases and walks. He leads the team in games and innings played.  And the Giants reportedly just traded him. Apparently for a mediocre minor league infielder they don't need. And on a day that another Giants outfielder goes on the DL and requires surgery.

They didn't even give him a full season--a player of his calibre, and a standup guy. This is a day of shame for the San Francisco Giants.

Giving Up

Update 8/30: In his first season in San Francisco, Andrew McCutchen leads the Giants in home runs, RBIs, hits, runs scored, doubles, stolen bases and walks.  And the Giants reportedly just traded him.  For next to nothing.  Shame.


The last straw was Buster Posey requiring season-ending surgery.  Pablo Sandoval needing same was a mere warmup.  The San Francisco have lost six of their last seven, scoring three runs or fewer for--well, living memory--and they've put Andrew McCutchen on trade waivers.  They've given up.

Here's the thing: it wasn't the best year of Cutch's career, and he had his ups and downs at the plate, but over the season it's hard to name a Giant player who was better. He's played more games and more innings than any other position player.  He was more than competent in the field and as a hitter.  He's admitted that the trade from Pittsburgh was wrenching, so feeling comfortable in San Francisco was going to take some time.  He didn't get it.

The Giants' fall is in some sense inexplicable so it's anybody's guess how they improve next year.  But getting rid of Cutch after one season does not sit well with me.  So for now, if they indeed trade Cutch, I'm giving up on the Giants until they give me a reason to think better of them.

25

I've just watched video of the ceremony in San Francisco Saturday to retire Barry Bond's number 25.  The Giants organization planned it well: 25 years after Bonds joined the Giants, and before a game with the only other Major League team Bonds played for, the Pittsburgh Pirates.

I only saw Bonds in one game at the San Francisco ball park (he struck out twice.)  But I saw him in probably a dozen games in his Pittsburgh years.  In one of the last games, I saw him hit safely to all fields, at least 4 hits, mostly rocket line drives that could take your breath away even if they stayed in the park.

So perhaps it was fitting that the most important words spoken about Bonds at this Saturday's ceremony were from his Pirates manager Jim Leyland--that is, at least in one important context.

There are probably Giants fans who were surprised that Bonds' number hadn't been retired long ago.  We all know why not.  But now with the entire organization behind him, this ceremony, this display provides a powerful boost to Bonds' chances of finally getting into the baseball Hall of Fame.

Willie Mays spoke at the ceremony, though apparently he wasn't scheduled to do so, and he issued the call: vote him in.  Maybe I'm prejudiced by my Pittsburgh roots, but I believe Leyland's carefully worded statement was even more important: "Without question, [Bonds] is the best player I ever managed in my 22 years as a major league skipper."  

Those are powerful words coming from one of the most revered managers (he won a World Series title with the Marlins) who is himself likely to be voted into the Hall.

Bonds won the National League MVP twice in his six Pittsburgh seasons. He won his first in 1990 when he hit .301 with 33 homers and stole 52 bases, and won a Gold Glove.  He won his second in 1993 with similar numbers.  He wound up winning 7 MVPs--no other player has won more than 3.  That's just the beginning of his records, which no other player in any "era" in which he played could equal.  Barry Bonds belongs in the baseball Hall of Fame, or nobody does.

Don't Trade The Cutch

It's not just because I'd be crushed if the San Francisco Giants traded Andrew McCutchen before I had a chance to see him play in a Giants uniform.  I'm against trading him in August (as the depressing consensus seems to say the Giants might like to) for non-personal reasons as well.

Cutch has just been moved to leadoff, and he seems to be thriving there.  He brings stability to a lineup that needs it, with all the injuries this year, and all the experiments based on performance.  Though they seem to lack the starting pitching to go far (see below), the Giants could make some noise the rest of this season with this lineup. San Francisco is hungry for that.

The other reason goes to credibility.  If the Giants want to acquire star players, they have to treat them well when they move out there.  Cutch has been uprooted from his hometown of Pittsburgh.  Based on his past performance and status, he deserves at least a full season in San Francisco.  But also, not giving him at least that long might make the Giants' organization look bad to prospective stars.  The Giants apparently missed out on free agents because they thought the team wasn't ready to contend.  If it also gives the impression of treating players like meat, stars are going to be even more leery of coming to the Bay.

The Giants return home after their first winning road trip since June.  The last part of the trip was notable for two players the Giants traded for this year with high and so far unfulfilled hopes.  Andrew McCutchen had a five hit game, including a homer, though unfortunately in a lost cause.  But he hit and got on base in other games as well.  Evan Longoria hit two home runs, including a solo shot that won the key game of the trip, the final game in Arizona that meant a split in that series and a 4-2 trip.  So maybe they've turned a corner.

The young players continue to perform well, and the combination should make for some good baseball and exciting games at home.  But their season is likely to founder on what once was their strongest feature: starting pitching.  They had three veteran starters at the beginning of the season, and lost all three to injury.  Now one of them--Cueto--is out for the year, and the other probably is.  Madison Bumgarner is still a great pitcher, but a contender needs more than one veteran star starter.

The Giants have several good young starters, but as the games in Arizona suggested, they haven't yet developed quite enough to carry a team that doesn't score many runs.  Still, there is a sudden youth movement on the Giants, which combined with the established stars, the younger veterans (like Kelby) and the new veterans (Cutch and Longoria) could make for unpredictable brilliance in any given game.

The Bad Luck Giants

The San Francisco Giants run of bad luck continues in terms of injuries.  Their second best starter Johnny Cueto, out for most of the season, now faces the likelihood of surgery that will end his season and threatens his career.  Hardly a game goes by that doesn't see a Giants player heading for the DL, the latest being Pablo Sandoval.

Another aspect of luck that was once with the Giants and has since disappeared was the luck of the trade.  In their glory years, nearly every trade the Giants made paid off, some of them--like obtaining Hunter Pence--big time.  But in recent years their high profile trades have largely been busts.  That was once again dramatically demonstrated on the field Monday in San Diego.

The Giants had a 3-0 lead thanks to one hit--a homer by utility fielder Chase d'Arnaud.  But they couldn't add on and the Padres chipped away until it was 3-2 going into the eighth.  Manager Bruce Bochy chose Mark Melancon to pitch the bottom of the eighth.  When the Giants traded for him, Melancon was a premier closer.  Injuries and ineffectiveness have made him a liability in close games, so it was completely predictable that the Padres would hit him and score.  The only unusual event was that they only tied the game.

In the top of the tenth, the Giants had runners on first and third with two out, thanks to some actual good luck within the game, on bounces and bad throws.  The Padres are not a good team.  Up came Evan Longoria, another high profile trade for a veteran All-Star.  As Dave Fleming said on the radio, they traded for him for just these moments.  He popped up on the first pitch.

Fortunately, however, the Giants gritted it out to win in 12 innings on a home run by one of their pleasant surprises, Gorkys Hernandez, and bravura pitching by Will Smith.

When they traded for Andrew McCutchen, they hoped he would give them the combination of power, average, speed on the basepaths and brilliant fielding that ignites a team.  He's given them at least something positive in all those departments except power, so he's been moved to lead-off batter in the hopes that he can ignite the team from there.

It could be a long rest of the season.  With their upgrade trade, the Dodgers are clear favorites in the division, and the Giants had another hitting drought after the break to fall pretty much out of contention.  But they can still play exciting baseball. They have found a number of really good young players, and they have core stars like Crawford, Posey and Bumgarner, and undervalued players like Kelby Tomlinson who keeps bouncing back from the minors to play key roles, as he did Monday.  It seems they've finally found a closer in Will Smith, who struck out four Padres in a row to win (and save) the 12 inning game on Monday.

Meanwhile there are a few hours before the trading deadline. McCutchen is being talked about in the media as a possible trade.  That would be depressing--I haven't even had the chance to see him in a Giants uniform. In any case,  I almost cringe at the idea of a trade now.  Not for the Bad Luck Giants.

Update: The trading deadline came and went without the Giants making a move.  In a quick turnaround day game, their rookie phenom Rodriegez lost a deserved win when Longoria failed to come home on a passed ball to the backstop.  He sort of made up for it with a triple in the 10th, as did Brian Crawford who singled him in, after striking out looking at three pitches with the bases loaded in the 8th.  So the Giants barely survived two games in extra innings against the weakest team in the division.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers got more depth via trade, and the surging Pirates went all in to try to challenge for a playoff spot this year.

Will They Be Giants?

Someone somewhere posted a comparison between where the San Francisco Giants are this year at the All Star break, and where they were in 2010, the year of their first of even-year championships this decade.  This year and 2010 are pretty much identical: in fourth place but not very many games back, with a barely winning record.

It's true that the Giants' division is not especially strong this year, but do the Giants have a chance?  Probably not.  They've got a few very promising young pitchers, but not what they had in 2010.  They don't have a dominant closer, as they did then.
But what the Giants this year really don't have that they had then is luck.  The Giants were very good in their championship years, but they were also lucky. Fairly nondescript players came through with heroic moments, especially in the post-season.  There were players like Cody Ross who had never been that good before, and he never was again.

Now there is a momentum to luck, a belief, when the team gets on another level. It's something that feeds on itself, the fans become part of it, and it's one of those wonders that makes baseball fun.  But it also comes and goes.

Luck translates most obviously into staying healthy.  And that's partly where the Giants' run of bad luck began at the All Star break two seasons ago, and continues.  This year they survived the first half with their three top starters and their star closer injured.  Now two of the starters are back and working themselves into form.  But the third is injured again, and the closer is not what he was. As for position players, as soon as one comes back, another gets injured.  Now it's Joe Panik.

So could the Giants make a run for the division?  Sure, it's possible--with luck.  Getting deep into the postseason would require even more luck: team of destiny kind of luck, the kind they had in 2010.  At least a couple of position players and several pitchers who are having good years will need to be phenomenal in the second half, and those having so-so years will need to be great, or at least have great moments in key games.  The talent is there.  It could happen.  With luck.  A lot of luck.