Warriors Winning Summer, Giants Poised

 The above excerpt about says it all concerning the Warriors and Boogie Cousins joining the team.  The consensus of smart people seems to be that Cousins could well be a tremendous addition late in the season and in the playoffs, depending on how well he comes back from a serious injury.  It certainly ups the excitement level for Golden State fans.

This happened a day after LeBron announced he was signing a four year deal with the Lakers--a coup for the great Magic Johnson that will add to the western conference sizzle next year.

Meanwhile the Warriors Summer League team looks pretty good, too.  So far they are indeed winning the summer.

In baseball, until they arrived in Colorado, the Giants were on a roll, winning 9 out of 10, including a sweep of the Diamondbacks.  They did so with some young arms they discovered because their starters were injured.  All three injured starters will be back by next week.  Will Smith is dominating the bullpen, though a right handed closer is still elusive.  With Strickland's stupid injury and Melancon's slow slow return to effectiveness, it's the team's biggest vulnerability.

But if things fall into place, the Giants are in fine position to make their move.  The second half of the season could be really interesting.

NBA Nonsense

It's blathering time for NBA talkers and writers.  How smart do you have to be to know that LeBron James is not staying in Cleveland, and is not going to Golden State?  Nor are the Warriors going to be trading any of their major players for anybody--who thinks like this?  Beyond that, it's a long summer.  Most likely for LeBron, though: the Lakers.

Sweep

The Golden State Warriors swept the Finals for their second championship in a row, and third in four years.

A few particularly good pieces on game 4, on Steph Curry, and FiveThirtyEight on the Warriors culture contributing to a dynasty, similar in some ways to the ESPN piece before the finals started.

Kevin Durant got his second Finals MVP in a row, though many observers thought it should have gone to Steph Curry.  But today's sportswriting is enthralled with stats, and KD's were arguably better.  That doesn't make him the MVP.  It was Steph.

Everybody's got their narrative, especially now that LeBron James revealed that he played the last 3 games with a hand he injured in frustration after the first game. But here's mine.

In these playoffs LeBron has often spent the first game feeling out the opposition, but in the first game of the Finals he came out firing.  The Dubs were good defensively but not quite keyed in to LeBron and the Cleveland players they'd never seen before.  At the end of the game, GS unquestionably got the breaks to keep the game tied in regulation, and they blew Cleveland away in overtime.

Another factor in game 1 was how to compensate for Andre Igoudala still being out.  Coach Kerr solved it by starting JaVale McGee, who jumpstarted the Warriors energy, especially in the second game.  The Dubs upped their defense, especially on James, and Curry caught fire late, pumping in a Finals record 9 three pointers.

Iggy came back for the third game but the Warriors had some difficulty integrating him again early, and his rust showed.  The Cavs decided to trap Curry, and Steph had an off night shooting as well.  But it was Iggy's presence on defense that freed KD from responsibility for James, and the combination of that with the Cavs obsession with Steph gave KD openings on the offense.  He responded with a magic touch on short, mid-range and especially long range shots, and carried the offense.

Statistically Steph had a bad shooting game but he made key buckets--especially his only three in the fourth quarter, which gave the momentum back to the Warriors.

Game 4 saw the Warriors take defensive intensity to a new level, while the Cavs sagged.  Numerous commentators saw the Cavs give in, but the Cavs weren't that good on defense the entire series.  It was their lack of defensive skills and defensive energy vs. Golden State, and the Warriors tremendous defense that made for the sweep.

At least one commentator criticized the Warriors bench before the Finals started, but even though starters always play more minutes in the Finals, the Warrior bench contributed mightily.  It was a team effort that won the championship, again.  Congratulations to the Golden State Warriors, 2017-18 NBA Champions!

After All That It's..Warriors v. Cavs

The seventh game of the western conference finals was as schizophrenic as the first six, but this time--and perhaps earlier-- it was likely due to the attrition of fatigue.  The Rockets set a record for 3 point futility--they missed 27 in a row.  It's still amazing to me that teams shoot as many as 27 threes.  As in game 6, they were energetic and sharp in the first half and fell apart in the second.  The Warriors had their monster third quarter, and kept the pressure on in the fourth.

The key to the Rockets taking this game--though nobody would ever say it--was to get at least one of the key Warriors in foul trouble early.  The likely candidates (because of their defensive responsibilities) were Green and Thompson.  They succeeded with Thompson, who was guarding Harden.  They limited him to 31 minutes and 19 points.  But a lot of those points--especially 3s--came at big moments in the game.

However they didn't succeed otherwise: KD, Steph Curry and Green all played exactly 44 minutes.  Green was a defensive beast, and chipped in 10 points.  Steph went off in the third, finished with a loud 27.  Kevin Durant redeemed himself with a quiet but lethal 34.

James Harden took a ton of shots, missed three quarters of a ton and ended up with 34, not many of them in the second half.  Chris Paul missed his second game in a row with the hamstring injury he suffered at the end of game 5.  Andre Iguodala was also out again for the Warriors.

By purist standards, it's amazing that either team won.  Golden State started with what their coach called "the worst quarter I've ever seen this team play" and Houston had a historically cold shooting night.  Which is why it was reasonably close at 101-92.

But credit the Warriors: it's the first game 7 they've ever won on the road, and their defense kept the mighty Rockets offense below 100 points most of the series.

So the Warriors meet the Cavs, beginning on Thursday at Golden State.  It should not be a close series, but this Warrior's team has become unpredictable.  They could lose the first game on sheer soreness and exhaustion, although LeBron is likely fatigued as well.

Anyway, it's the series that nobody wanted to see again: the pre-season favorites that as late as last week, didn't look like they would be meeting again, the fourth consecutive time for the championship.  I'm willing to bet that no game in the finals will eclipse the ratings for the game played tonight in Houston.  But it's LeBron and Steph and KD, so game on.

Remains of the Conference Finals

Update: After game 6, the Warriors titanic second half demonstrates which is the better team.  The question for game 7 Monday is will the better team show up.

Two games in a row in which the Warriors lost by 3 and 4 points, and didn't score 100 in either game.  One game can be nothing but itself.  But two games in a row starts to look like a pattern.  It starts to look like the Rockets have found something that works.

The Warriors must win their next two games to make the finals.  It is their test of character as a team, and it is specifically a test of Kevin Durant.

LeBron James has taken Cleveland to a seventh game in the East.  If he succeeds in carrying the Cavs to the Finals and Durant does not contribute to winning the West, the debate over who is the best player in the league is over.

The finals could be nothing like what everyone expected.  How weird if neither Golden State nor Cleveland is in them.  How much weirder still if Cleveland is, but the Warriors are not.

Going Into (and Out of) Game 5

The Western Conference finals enter the usually crucial fifth game, which the Houston Rockets made crucial again by winning the fourth game, topping the Warriors by 3 points at Golden State.

By doing so, the Rockets made it a series, and could take control of it with a game 5 win at home.  Because of home court and the short duration between games 3, 4 and 5, Houston will be the favorite.

The won't win, though.  If game 4 was a test of James Harden's legacy, game 5 is a test of the Warriors, and specifically Kevin Durant.  Durant had chances to nail down the win in game 4 but rushed his shots and failed to play Warrior team basketball.

The team that wins game 5 has two games to win their fourth, with both teams having a home game remaining.  They both won a game on the road.  By winning the first game, the Warriors still have an advantage in the game to game adjustments, going into game 5.

They should have Iguodala back, a crucial player against this Houston lineup.  The first three games were blowouts.  In game 4, the two teams alternated dominating quarters: the Warriors won the first and third, the Rockets won the second and fourth.  Game 5 may finally be the game that is close from start to finish.  Or not. These two teams are unusual.

The Rockets are hungry.  They know that the winner of this series is a prohibitive favorite to win the championship.  But the Warriors are champions, and more than in any game in the past two playoffs, they must prove it in game 5.

The Warriors will win game 5 on the road, and game 6 at home to wrap up the series.

There is not much to say about the Eastern conference, except that with both teams winning their home games, the advantage still lies with Boston.  The likely remaining question is whether they win it in 6 or 7.

Going Into Game 4

The Golden State Warriors won game 3 at home by the historic margin of 41 points, and set a new NBA record for consecutive wins at home in the playoffs.  Best of all for the home team, Steph Curry had a monster third quarter, hitting 7 of 7, including four 3s.  He became the game's high scorer with 35.

As one commentator observed, when Steph gets hot at the Oracle Arena, for fans it's like a religious experience.  It envelopes that building in wonder and joy.

But as the Warriors know, this is half of what they must do.  Houston must win game 4 to have any reasonable chance in the series, and the Warriors must win it to stay in control of the series.

The anomaly of the series so far is that there hasn't yet been a game in which both teams play at a high level.  We haven't yet seen that game that comes down to the last minutes.  If we are going to see one, it's probably going to be game 4.

James Harden's likely MVP won't be worth much to his reputation unless he can lead his team to a victory in game 4.  Chris Paul must be hearing the talk that he doesn't look right on the floor.  Can he counter that talk, as Steph Curry did?

 But the Warriors at home know this is their best shot at avoiding the uncertainty of a game 7 in Houston.  It's usually game 5 that is the most significant, after game 1.  But in this series, it's game 4.  The situation suggests it will be a brutally physical game, and the final score will be close.

The fly in the ointment for the Dubs is whether Andre Iguodala is healthy enough to perform well in game 4.  On Monday he was listed as doubtful because of a bruised knee.  However, X-rays came back clean, so it will all depend on how sore his knee is on Tuesday morning.

Game 4 is at 6 pm at Oracle.

In the East, Cleveland won their home games and the series is tied at 2-2.  So it's still a series.  It was all LeBron in game 4, so it seems the series is up to him. Boston doesn't have to win anywhere but in Boston.  Cleveland has to take one on the road--even if it's game 7.

In baseball, Brandon Belt is on a home run tear.  He's hit 5 homers in the past seven games, including a three run shot that provided the winning margin on Sunday for the San Francisco Giants.  Brandon Crawford is also having a terrific month at the plate.  After winning streaks, losing streaks and splits, the Giants head out on an 8 game homestand at .500, and in the hunt.

Going Into Game Three

The first two games of the western conference finals fit the playoff pattern: each team has a blowout win, and conversely a loss that makes them look very vulnerable.  If this pattern holds, the rest of the games to be played will be closer, including at least one decided in the last minute, or the last few seconds.

With their commanding win in game 2, the Rockets have confidence in their game.  The Warriors, who frightened fans with their regular season tendency--different from the past two seasons--to fall apart and get beat big, have rattled their fans for sure with this game, and perhaps impressed themselves with what they need to do every game.

What the second game showed was what I proposed as the Rockets path to victory: the Rockets made adjustments, then played at the top of their game, while the Warriors played at the bottom of theirs.  Two games with a day between on the road is as hard as the playoff schedule gets.  It seems unlikely that Steph and Klay will miss so many shots at home.  It seems unlikely that the Warriors play as badly again--but given the regular season, there's some doubt.

Steph Curry will need to have a big game to silence the questions about his recovery from his latest injury.  He denies that he's not as quick physically, but he did that two years ago also, when he was in fact not fully recovered.

Now the Warriors must win their two home games in order to stay in control of this series.  They then have the luxury of not needing game 5, and taking the series with game 6 at home.  Anything short of taking the next two games is dangerous.  That has to be their mindset.

In the eastern conference finals, game 3 is an obvious must-win for Cleveland at home.  Having lost the first two games on the road, they must win all their home games plus one in Boston.  They don't seem to have the firepower or the defense to make up this deficit, as they made up a 3-1 deficit two years ago in the finals to win the championship.  Not if the Celtics stay as healthy as they are now.

The East plays game 3 Saturday, the West on Sunday.

Conference Finals: The Story So Far

We should be used to this by now--after every game 1 victory for Golden State, nobody in sports media can figure out how they are going to lose.  But teams make adjustments, and I'd be surprised if the Rockets don't at least make a game of it tonight.

To be fair to the commentators, the Rockets seem locked into the style that didn't work, so maybe they can't make enough adjustments. Right now the Warriors look like the better and more flexible team. They have more than one way to win.  But if the Rockets successfully adjust their offense and defense and win the second game, then game 5 looms large.

If they don't adjust, or if they do adjust and still lose, then it is pretty much over. It's more than a math truism to observe that if the Dubs win tonight, they very well could sweep.  The problem for the Rockets is that they need to play an almost perfect game, and the Dubs must slump.  The Rockets can't stop Durant, but he could have a poor shooting night. Still, they have to worry about Steph Curry and/or Klay Thompson going off.

It will be interesting to see what lineup Coach Kerr starts.  Will he rest Iggy as he did between road games in the last series?  That lineup didn't get the team off to a great start anyway.

 We'll know more about how long a series this is likely to be after game 2.  But in almost any scenario, the Warriors should prevail.

It also looks very much like the Warriors' Finals opponent will be the Boston Celtics. The Cavs have not only lost the first two games, they looked bad doing it.  The Celtics also look to be a stronger opponent for the Warriors, especially because of their coach and his relationship with his players.  That combined with their youth could win them a couple of games.  But the Dubs will expose their inexperience.   It could be a respectably long series.

The Giants got a victory in Pittsburgh to break their road trip losing streak, and promptly won the first two against the Reds at home.  After living off their rookies and young players in the early season, the veterans are starting to come through at the plate.  Some exciting baseball back at what seems like a still not regularly sold out field.

The Storm Before the Games

Going into the weekend before the NBA conference finals, a few especially interesting takes among the usual noise.

While the ESPN experts pretty unanimously pick Golden State (and Cleveland), the numbers folks at 538 say that Houston has a 79% chance of going to the Finals.

However, this prediction itself was panned by the big lead.

Sports Illustrated was pretty direct in its predictions:

"As long as everyone is healthy, Golden State really shouldn't be threatened by anyone. I hope I'm wrong about this, and it would be great if we're about to enter two weeks of Warriors–Rockets chaos, but Steph Curry already warned everyone about overthinking it. Nobody can guard Kevin Durant. If he plays his best basketball over the next month, the playoffs are already over."

The rest of SI's analysis is interesting--and well-written.

A lot of the comments in other places as well focus on the difference between playoff basketball and regular season.  The Rockets found themselves in the regular season, but the Warriors know how to perform in the playoffs.  SI emphasized the efficiency of Steph Curry and KD, and the level that Draymond hits (and hit immediately in the first series) in the playoffs.

But 538 does have some good points, especially the potential importance of home court, which belongs to Houston.

As a rule of thumb from just a viewer, the crucial games in a playoff series are 1 and 5 and of course 7.  The ball is literally in the court of the home team in game 1--victory by the visitors (the Dubs, in this case) is very big.  On the other hand, the visitors figure they've done their job if they get one win out of the first two.

In a fairly evenly matched series, the first game is especially crucial, because the other team always adjusts to a defeat.  Perhaps because of these alternating currents, the winner of game 5 almost always wins the series.

 If the Warriors win on Monday, the Rockets are in serious trouble.  But this will still be a series, every game until it's over.

Meanwhile, after their surge, the San Francisco Giants have lost 5 straight, mostly due to pitchers being beaten up and their hitters striking out.  But Andrew McCutchen did get a hero's welcome his first game back in Pittsburgh.  That's great--the city's sports fans weren't always so classy.  There were video tributes and standing ovations--they love the Cutch in Pittsburgh.

The Western Showdown is Coming

Update Tuesday: As was foretold you, the Warriors and Rockets both advanced to the championship round in their fifth game on Tuesday, and by nearly identical scores.  Now comes nearly a week of analysis and prediction, but at this point it seems these teams are pretty evenly matched.  If the series goes to 7 games, Houston has the traditional home court edge.  This much can be said now: the Rockets have been playing their best basketball of the year.  To beat them, the Warriors will need to play their best basketball of the year.


When you are down 2-0 in a playoff series, you coach and play for only the next game.  But when you are up 2-0, you can play also for the series.  That's what Coach Kerr did for the third game of round 2.  Knowing that the Warriors were to play two games on the road with only a day between them, he sent out a lineup that was different from the kind of lineup that had won the first two games.  He did it to rest Iggy and to be able to limit Steph Curry's minutes and lessen his role in his second game back from injury.  In terms of conditioning, the second game back--after the adrenalin rush of the first return--is the most difficult.

But Kerr returned to the small lineup, his best five players (he said) for the fourth game on Sunday, and the Dubs defeated New Orleans by 26 points.  It will be shocking if the series doesn't end on the Warriors home floor in game 5.

Houston seems just as likely to end their series, so the predicted Western showdown is about to occur, and it promises to be the hardest-fought series of the entire post-season.

In the east, it may take Toronto a long time to recover from its complete collapse and capitulation to the Cavs.  Game 4 was barely contested.  TO gave up.  There could be major changes, and should be coaching changes, there soon.

Philadelphia avoided a similar collapse by beating back Boston in their fourth game, but the odds of course still are that Cleveland will meet the surprising Celtics.  With Kyrie down, the Celtics are really a wild card in this series but certainly start out as underdogs.  The Cavs lucked out with their opponent in the second round, and may have again in the championship round.  But neither team seems a match for either team from the West, and in either case it looks to be another short finals series.

Stephless No More

Steph is back.

Steph Curry came off the bench against New Orleans in the second game of the second round--an idea I had as a strategic advantage. So I assumed Coach Kerr had a similar thought about confusing the Pelicans defense.  But apparently it was Steph's idea.

His shooting was there from the start.  He ended up with 28 points.  The rust showed in bad passes and not anticipating Anthony Davis' ability to block shots. He should be up to speed by Friday, when he is set to start in the third game, this time in New Orleans.

Coach Kerr's decision to field a small lineup against the speedy Pelicans is working.   Judging by the first two games, I expect the Pelicans to win one, maybe two, but the Dubs to prevail in 5 or 6.

The other Western Conference match-up got interesting Wednesday when Utah defeated Houston, tying that series at 1-1.  Now it goes to Utah.  Yes, very interesting.

In the East: How many miracles can LeBron perform to keep Cleveland going?  It took seven games for them to win the first round.  The Cavs won the first game of the second round over Toronto by coming back to tie and then winning in overtime. They led the game only at the end.  Everything depends on how Toronto responds to this game.  But at this point, it seems the Cavs dinking into the finals really would be a miracle.

Thursday update: TO responded badly, and down 2-0 on the road, they've got a massive hill to climb, starting with their confidence. Undermanned  Boston is surprising many by handling golden Philadelphia.  And the Houston-Utah series is 1-1.  That's three wows right there. 

Meanwhile after a challenging April the Giants just climbed back over .500.  They've won 4 straight series, including one over the Dodgers.  Highlight of Wednesday was the return of lh reliever Will Smith.  They're also providing some exciting baseball for Giants fans.

NBA Playoffs Taking Shape

Heading for the second round, the NBA playoffs begin to take shape.  The big news so far is the New Orleans Pelicans.  They dispatched the favored Portland Trailblazers in four emphatic games, for the only sweep of the round.  If the Golden State Warriors finish their first round with a 5th game victory at home tonight, they will meet this weekend to begin the second round.

The Pelicans have strong momentum, always important in the postseason.  The Warriors are still without Steph Curry and may remain so for awhile. They are otherwise banged up as well.

New Orleans looked to be a strong challenger for whoever played them, especially Houston and Golden State.  By dropping to second seed, the Warriors drew the Pelicans, the team most likely to slow down the Rockets, and perhaps eliminate them.  Now that's not going to happen in this round, and the Warriors are in for a fight.  So the Warriors-Pelicans could be a difficult and even fateful series.

Utah is likely to emerge as the winner against OKC, which may also be good for the Rockets, as OKC is the other team that gave them trouble.  The Rockets looked rocky in the first round, but they dropped 50 points in one quarter of game 4 on Monday, which has to be getting everybody's attention.

In the East, Cleveland has looked shaky-- their first round will go at least six games, and a long series early is not good for the Cavs.  Philadelphia looks the strongest, with Toronto behind them, with Boston a dark horse.  Philadelphia feels like the team of destiny there.  The Pelicans are a legitimate dark horse team in the West, with the Warriors and the Rockets still most likely to meet in the conference championship series.   But that's likely a month away, so hang on.

The disturbing trend of the first round has been the acrimony, fighting and possibly even attempts to injure.  It hasn't affected the Warriors yet--the Dubs and the Spurs are two of the classiest teams in the league--but egos elsewhere are out of the control.

After a hard luck start (losing your top three starting pitchers and top two relief pitchers seems to qualify) the San Francisco Giants began to stabilize in the past week or so.  Getting two of those pitchers back--both with strong first starts--probably helped, but so did the cold veteran bats coming around.

But the big news was the return of Mac Williamson with a whole new stroke.  He homered to win one game, and on Monday, blasted the longest home run by a Giant at home in several years, 464 feet, to win that game.   With Williamson an unexpected jolt in the outfield, the surprisingly (at least to me) effective job Hunter Strickland has done as the closer, and the strong starts some of the young pitchers have made, could it be that the Giants luck is finally, finally turning around?

Great Start to the Warriors Playoff Run

The Golden State Warriors defeated the San Antonio Spurs in the first game of the playoffs with pace, defense and some hot shooting.  It was a total effort with some stand-out individual performances: Klay Thompson had one of those great shooting games he's capable of, hitting on 11 of 13 shots.  From the start, Kevin Durant was in charge of the offense, made shots and combined with JaVale McGee for others.  Draymond Green made shots as well as led the defense.

Credit Coach Kerr for a surprising starting lineup, with Andre Iguodala at point guard and McGee at center.  Both were outstanding.  Andre was disruptive on defense and McGee was aggressive, scoring a season high 15 and handing the Spurs major scoring threat, LeMarcus Aldridge, on defense, with one spectacular block that led to a Klay three. When the starters play like this, the bench responds with defense and key shots. The Dubs led by 28 at one point.

The Dubs can't expect Thompson to be that hot or McGee that effective every game but the victory was a total package. (KD only had to score 24 for this blowout win.) The Spurs don't seem to have answers for the match-up problems Kerr exposed, so only a reversion to pre-playoff intensity by the Warriors is likely to prevent this being a short series.

The Big Challenge

At the start of the NBA season and well into it, everybody said another championship for the Golden State Warriors was a foregone conclusion.  But nobody is saying that now that the playoffs are about to start.

An almost incredible collection of injuries kept the Warriors from establishing any kind of rhythm, though they did have the possibly important effect of getting more players on the court in various combinations, and the coaches saw it all.

But not even notching 60 wins, and with losses to good, bad and indifferent teams, the Warriors have lost their aura of invincibility.  Everybody ups their game when they play them, but now everyone knows they can be beaten.

 Last year's playoffs the Warriors equaled the great Lakers mark of 16-1.  That's not going to happen this year.  They haven't blown teams out by 30 points in a long time, and so every game is going to be contested deep into it.  They are vulnerable, and the more games they need to play to win each series, the more vulnerable they become.

Steph Curry is all but officially out for at least the first round.  The Dubs now depend on Kevin Durant for leadership.  The style of play on offense is different, and the need for stellar defense is even greater.  For all their talent, the truth is that the Warriors haven't shown their championship selves recently.  Maybe when they beat OKC we got a hint.  But it doesn't seem anybody can have the confidence everyone had at the beginning of the season.  Anybody but the team itself, that is.

Across the bay, the championship hopes of the San Francisco Giants seemed to disappear almost before they got started. Their #1 pitcher Madison Bumgarner got hit on his pitching hand in a tune-up game and will be out until June.  Right now the #2 and #3 pitchers in the rotation are injured, as is their high-priced closer.

But the young pitchers and the new team on the field have produced some exciting baseball, capped with a 14 inning game at home against the Dodgers, in which new Giant Andrew McCutchen collected six hits, including the walk-off homer. One of those memorable games for the people who saw it.

Six hits in a game is very rare, even with extra innings.  The only time I even heard the broadcast of a game where that happened was when Dick Groat did it for the Pirates at Forbes Field in their championship year of 1960, in a nine inning game if I remember correctly.

Happy Birthday, Steph!

On Steph Curry's 30th birthday he and two of the other Warriors All Stars--Klay Thompson and Draymond Green-- were out of the lineup with injuries.  But Golden State beat the surging Lakers anyway.

Happy birthday!

To the Playoffs---and Opening Day

With 15 games to go, the Golden State Warriors officially have a playoff spot.  After losing two games in a row while Steph Curry and four other rotation players were out of the lineup with injuries, it now seems clearer than ever that the Dubs aren't going to make any special efforts to go for the top seed and guaranteed home court throughout the playoffs.

In fact everything team members say as well as the reports coming from unquoted team officials suggests that they've more or less conceded the top spot to Houston, now two games ahead.  The Warriors were actually ahead for a few hours between a Rockets loss and their game in Portland, but with losses there and in Minnesota, they've dropped farther behind than they've been all season.

Instead the priority is to get healthy and rested for the playoffs.  Plus the Portland game showed that the Warriors can't be looking ahead to confronting the Rockets.  They may have a tough series before the western conference finals, if it goes that way.

Next game is in Los Angeles against the Lakers, and the Dubs could take another loss.  The Lakers are surging and confident, and although all the injured Warriors players are expected to be healthy enough, the team may not elect to play them all that soon.  And starters who have taken the brunt while Curry was out may be due for rest.

Meanwhile, the start of MLB is just around the corner.  Some of the SF Giant vets have been making some noise in recent spring training games (Hunter Pence hit a grand slam, Buster Posey a three hit game) and there's still active competition for the center field slot.  A number of old and new pitchers have looked good, with question marks remaining for Johnny Cueuto and Mark Melancon.

It's going to be an exciting start to the season in San Francisco.  With my favorite (now former) Pirate out there in Cutch, I'm stoked.

5 Games In

Just five games past the AS break and neither Golden State nor Houston has lost.  But on Tuesday while the Warriors had trouble putting away the Nets with another inconsistent game, Houston took it to OKC by 10.  The Warriors have won 6 in a row overall; the Rockets have won 16 straight.

The excuses and rationalizations are fading.  Houston has a much easier schedule overall, but they've beaten GS twice and tonight they beat their only other real Western Conference challenger in OKC, without needing the late game heroics they've had for several victories lately.  So there's really no question that Houston is for real, and is probably playing the best basketball in the NBA.

They're still ahead for home court throughout the playoffs, and that remains a big deal, regardless of the rationalizations.  Sure, the Dubs could steal a game in Houston and have theoretical home court advantage, but the seventh game would still be played in Houston.  And that's what's huge.  Any edge either team has could be crucial.  It could come down to the health of role players and bench subs.

There is the possibility that the Rockets do what the Warriors did two seasons ago: have a euphoric regular season run but get worn out in the playoffs.  And all this frustrating pacing themselves the Warriors appear to be doing will pay off.

 But in that season, the Warriors lost their edge towards the end of the regular.  This year Houston is finishing the year with an amazing run.  Their confidence is sky high.  Even their bench players are excelling.

The Houston offense is getting the reputation of being "unstoppable" while the Warriors defense is not up to last year's.  That the Warriors aren't blowing anybody out is not necessarily fatal but don't the habits and the skills have to get established soon?

If everybody stays healthy, and not too much unexpected stuff happens before then, fans are going to love a Golden State-Houston series.  Sports commentators are openly rooting for Houston because this is what they want.  And right now the Rockets have the momentum.

Stretch Run

The NBA stretch run to the playoffs has begun.  With 20 or so regular season games to go, it still looks like Houston v. Golden State.

The Warriors addressed their slow first quarter starts with a lineup change: JaVale McGee starting at center, with Zaza coming off the bench.  In the first two games back, it worked very well: McGee gave the Dubs a starting surge of energy and electricity at the rim.  Hot shooting carried the first game, improved defense the second, leading to a late game eruption of scoring for a 32 point victory over OKC. McGee still has his problems but just a month or so after it looked as if the Dubs were preparing fans for his trade away from the team, he's proven to be a piece of the puzzle.

Still, Houston won their first two back as well, including a close game against Denver.  Winning the close ones is a necessary skill for a contender.  Houston's confidence must be sky high, they're riding the destiny train.  I don't see them losing more than 2 games the rest of this season, even with a tougher schedule than Golden State.  They could win out.

So could the Dubs but more likely they'll lose a couple more.  That would keep the standings static and give Houston home court. In the playoffs OKC is a challenge for both teams, perhaps more for Houston, but a Rockets-Warriors western conference championship series seems as close to inevitable as these things get.  The key for both teams is keeping all their stars healthy, because the team that loses just one will be at a big disadvantage.

Houston is hungry, and the Dubs have the advantage (that is also a disadvantage) of experience.  They seem back on track now but it doesn't take much to become a distraction.  Houston isn't likely to get distracted, at least not until the playoffs.  If everybody's healthy, that series goes seven, which means it's up for grabs.

The East meanwhile continues to be unimpressive.  Boston has faded, Toronto proves vulnerable and after a dominating start with its new lineup, the Cavs look not so great as that.  They lost to a depleted Spurs team on a losing streak.  None of these teams seem capable of taking either the Warriors or the Rockets in a 7 game series.

Things have a way of not working out so neatly, so there's potential drama ahead.  But right now, Houston and Golden State seemed fated to clash for all the marbles.

 

After the Deadline, It's Houston v. Golden State

At the break update: With a close loss in Portland, the Golden State Warriors dropped to second place vs. Houston, in the competition for home court throughout the playoffs.  There are several ways to look at that loss.  On the one hand, on a night when the entire team shot poorly, the Dubs came within a few points of winning anyway, due to a 50 point performance by Kevin Durant.  On the other hand, even the Durant insurance policy wasn't enough to offset subpar performances by the other stars and the bench.  Is there a problem in team dynamics?  That possibility can no longer be ignored.

Meanwhile Houston looks invincible, as do the reborn Cavs.  The championship is really not a foregone conclusion, the playoffs aren't going to be as smooth as last year, and if there are weaknesses they need to be identified before it's too late.

As the fallout from trades and signings around the NBA trade deadline continue, some conclusions can already be drawn.  For the Golden State Warriors, they mostly reinforce what's become evident over the past month.

The wholesale changes in the Cleveland Cavs lineup suggest the team may yet get into the playoffs and make some noise.  But until the new Cavs can prove otherwise, the Celtics remain the only (remote) challenge to the Warriors in a finals series.

The Warriors are very likely to get their major challenge from Houston in the Western Conference playoffs.  With the addition of another big man, Houston added to its formidable scoring machine.  Houston is performing better than the Dubs right now, and they look likely to first of all challenge for home court throughout the playoffs.  They appear to be the only team in the NBA that can hang with the Dubs for a seven game series, although when the Warriors aren't playing well (not enough defense, too many turnovers), they are vulnerable to teams like OKC and Boston.

The Warriors have made zero moves so far.  Neither did the Spurs, and they are fading.  So the season and the playoffs are shaping up to be Houston v. Golden State.