The Games Are Over, Let the Blah Blah Blah Begin

 The Lakers victory over New Orleans was surprising, but Sacramento pummeling the Golden State Warriors was almost shocking.  Depending on who is talking, Sacramento played above their capabilities thanks in large measure to a raucous home crowd and Golden State had a bad night; or, the young Sacramento team beat up on the old Warriors.

So their season is over, and the talk about what changes will be/should be/must be/might be made has already begun.  What a din it's going to be for months and months! 

 In their postgame interviews, Steve Kerr and Draymond were slightly in shock but philosophical, Kerr taking the long view and praising this team for sticking together, while Draymond seemed convinced that the current Warriors could have a better year next year.  There's a case to be made for that, in that the rotations changed so much and so many times during this rocky season, only stablizing in a mostly impressive late season run.  But Steph's slightly shocked postgame response was a little different: "I just want to win," he said repeatedly.  He may love this team as it is, but it sure sounds like he's ready for it to change.

The question everyone is focusing on is the future of free agent Klay Thompson.  That he had the worst shooting game of his long career (the first time in nearly 1000 games that he's played more than 12 minutes and not scored) is not a great last impression, and complicates matters further.  Personally I believe it was fatigue.  When a reporter repeated in the presser after the New Orleans game that Coach Kerr said he was going to rest players for the upcoming Utah game, and asked what Klay thought of that, he welcomed the idea of rest, and noted the end of season heavy travel and back-to-backs.  He was tired, and yet played more than 20 minutes against Utah, carrying the scoring burden without Steph.  The game might have meant something but it turned out to be meaningless: the Warriors would have been in 10th win or lose.  A tired Klay might have been the difference in the play-in, though as Coach Kerr said, the Kings physically dominated.

To be realistic, this loss is of limited consequence for them this year.  The Lakers play Denver in the first round, and if it lasts 4, 5 or even 6 games, they will lose.  I'm not sure the Warriors could beat Oklahoma City in 7, but I really doubt they could beat Denver.  Their chances of coming out of the second round, let alone the first, were always dim.  

The real consequence of this not even close loss is that it's the last impression of the season, and increases pressure on the Warriors front office to make big changes in the off-season.  As Kerr said, the West was very competitive this year--with its 46 wins, the Warriors would have been a playoff team last year.  And it seems the West is only going to get stronger next year.  San Antonio is going to be better, Memphis is likely to be better, Sacramento--though whether they even get into the playoffs this year seems to depend on Zion's health in their upcoming play-in game in New Orleans--is a young team that's likely to be better.  In addition to making next season a steeper mountain to climb, it also may limit the talent available to the Warriors in trades and free agency.

So there may be action in the off-season but there most definitely will be talk, talk, talk.  I hope to avoid it.  On the other hand, it's an election year and so the news will be no refuge.  Well, there's the WNBA.  There will be basketball there.

Play-In Set, Starts Tuesday

 The Golden State Warriors won their last game of the season against Utah, but the help they needed from other teams didn't materialize, and so they start the play-in at the 10 position, meaning they will need to win two elimination games on the road just to get into the first round of the playoffs.

The crucial difference was that even though the Dubs defeated the Lakers last week, they lost to New Orleans at home, while the Lakers defeated the Pelicans on the road on Sunday.  Sacramento also won their final game.  So now the Warriors travel to Sacramento for the first play-in game on Tuesday.  If they win it, they play the loser of the Lakers v. Pelicans.  

The other consequential outcomes on Sunday mean that the Phoenix Suns avoid the play-in after all, and the #1 seed is Oklahoma City, with the Nuggets and Timberwolves behind.  So if the Warriors win the play-in games, they will face the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs.

The Warriors played Utah Sunday at home resting Steph and Draymond, but Klay Thompson, who after the New Orleans game had expressed a desire for a rest day, was left to carry the scoring burden with 25 points.  A banged up Kuminga didn't score at all, though he had the most assists of his career.  With starters and the usual second team getting a bit more than 20 minutes each, Coach Kerr emptied the bench, giving a few players a rare appearance.

So how do things look?  The Warriors are more banged up than they were a month ago, but many other teams have equal or worse injury problems.  That's going to make these play-ins and playoffs less than predictable.  The Warriors had a tough end of season schedule in terms of excessive travel and several back-to-backs, so fatigue may also be a factor.  

Still, the Warriors will be expected to win in Sacramento.  Their likely opponent then will be the Lakers, despite LA's big win against New Orleans Sunday, especially if Anthony Davis is out with the injury he apparently suffered at the end of Sunday's game (he led all scorers with 30.) Also, Le Bron played heavy minutes.

  Either of the 9/8 teams is beatable, though both have defeated the Dubs at least once this season.  Can the Dubs handle the Lakers with both Le Bron and Anthony Davis on the floor?  They haven't in their past two victories over LA.  The Dubs go into the play-ins with some momentum (while Sacramento does not), but so do New Orleans and LA when their stars are on the floor. On the other hand, if the Warriors win both games, they won't have to face Denver in the first round, with those match-up problems.

But first they have to get past the Kings.  They may not have Gary Payton II available, Kuminga may not be fully healthy, and Podz continues his puzzling lack of scoring, putting more of a burden on a weary Klay Thompson.  Still, Kerr has a lot of faith in the Draymond/Jackson-Davis combination to augment Steph and hopefully Klay, and in general Kerr expressed a lot of optimism about the team peaking now.  Andrew Wiggins has been playing well lately, even after his ankle injury (he had 19 points Sunday.) Defense has stepped up a lot, but the Dubs still haven't conquered their propensity for turnovers.  So it's Tuesday, game on for the play-in.

Meanwhile, congratulations to Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who hit his 300th career home run on Sunday.  The former National League Most Valuable Player joins such revered Pirates greats as Willie Stargell and Ralph Kiner on the 300 dingers roll, though unlike them, Andrew didn't hit them all while playing for Pittsburgh. Still, he hit 216 as a Pirate, placing him just behind Roberto Clemente on the all time list.  I've seen him play in both the Pirates and SF Giants uniform.  He was one of the few real stars for the Pirates in the decades after the Barry Bonds era in Pittsburgh, with a lot of joy and charisma as well as the skills that made him an exciting player.  

He remained a fan favorite in Pittsburgh and a fixture in the city, especially when he married a Pittsburgh girl and maintained a home there.  He returned to the Pirates this season by his own choice as well as the club's, and he seems destined to retire there as a player and perhaps remain with the Pirates organization.  This too is in an older tradition of Pittsburgh sports, when it wasn't unusual to see a couple of former Pirates managers sitting together in the ballpark stands.

That Iowa Season, Warriors at the Wire

 I had just a semester in the Iowa Writers Workshop graduate program back in the prior century but enough for me to be an Iowa alum, and call Caitlin Clark's team my own.  I've been watching all season, learning the other members of the team as well as the amazing CC.  They sold out games everywhere they went and during the NCAA tournament kept breaking TV viewing records.  Their Final Four victory over UConn had the biggest audience on ESPN, not only of any women's game, but of any basketball game, period.  

Caitlin Clark was the chief reason.  A deep three point shooter in the mold of Steph Curry (Clark made "logo three" part of the language), she also has Curry's ethics and solid, smiling demeanor.  That she's a role model is a very good thing.  But she was also surrounded by good teammates, like the tenacious Gabbie Marshall, a great defensive player who could also reliably hit the three.  

Iowa played in the championship game two years in a row, and this year met the undefeated South Carolina team, possessed of a much deeper bench.  Iowa won the first quarter and lost the other three.  It can be argued that it wasn't quite a fair fight, since the four best teams in the tourney were Iowa, South Carolina, Louisiana and UConn.  To get to the title game, Iowa had to play two of them.  South Carolina played none. 

For all that Clark and Iowa and other breakout stars for other teams did this year to rocket attention to their sport, the upcoming WNBA draft tells a different story about college womens basketball.  While the NBA has 30 teams, drafting deep into college teams and recruiting high school players and even younger prospects, the WNBA has 12 teams, fewer than half as many.  So while Caitlin Clark will almost certainly be chosen with the first draft pick, her excellent teammate, fifth year senior Gabbie Marshall expects never to play another competitive basketball game in her life.  She plans to get some more education and a professional job in the health field.    

Also on Sunday, the Golden State Warriors defeated a Utah Jazz team of mostly young prospects.  Houston had already lost its game, meaning that the Warriors had clinched the 10th spot and a play-in opportunity.  They lost to a Luka-less Dallas by 2 points on Friday, but the Los Angeles Lakers also won one and lost one, so the Dubs are still a game and a half back of the ninth place Lakers, a less vulnerable play-in spot.  They will very likely need to defeat the Lakers on Tuesday to have a chance to move up.  After that, the Warriors play Portland, New Orleans and Utah, while the Lakers have only Memphis and New Orleans.  New Orleans is the wild card in both scenarios.

The Lakers were playing well but are now facing injury issues with their two stars, Le Bron James and Anthony Davis.  As of Sunday, it's not clear whether either will play against the Warriors.  

Down to the Wire

 While the Warriors were wobbling towards the finish line of the season, the Houston Rockets were soaring.  So what had started out to be Golden State's challenge to get into a guaranteed playoff position has become a fight to live as even a play-in team.

Even with new lineups and no real duds on the team, the Warriors continued to struggle to stay with the game long enough to win it, and especially to win at home.  Losses to Indiana, New York and Minnesota were with nearly a fully healthy roster, and then injuries started to mount up.  Back on the road they eventually roughed up a depleted Miami Heat team, and the next day faced the Orlando Magic, with Jonathan Kuminga hurt and a banged-up Jackson-Davis on the court.  As if that wasn't handicap enough, Draymond got himself two tech and an ejection in the first quarter, and Steph Curry almost lost it.  The despair brought him to the verge of tears.

But the Warriors responded.  They protected an early lead until once again they lost it late, but this time responded with just enough to win a low scoring game by 9.  Klay Thompson was again outstanding as a starter, playing heavy minutes two days in a row.  Andrew Wiggins stepped up with the aggressiveness usually supplied by JK, and bench players picked up on the competitive energy.  (Although for the second game in a row Chris Paul seemed less than sure-handed.)  

But Houston also won, beating the better OKC team in overtime. The night before, the Lakers without Le Bron won in overtime.

 It's not just the Warriors who are beat up--practically every team is--so all bets are off for any given game.  On paper, Houston has a tougher schedule to finish but they have momentum, and the Warriors seem to have fewer games with a clear advantage.  They've got two with Dallas, one with the Lakers, New Orleans and now a potentially crucial one with Houston.  They can afford to take lightly exactly nobody.

Unless Houston goes on as impressive a losing streak as their current winning streak, and/or the Warriors practically win out,  Golden State's status as even a play-in team let alone a play-off team could be in doubt until the end of the Utah game on April 14, the end of the regular season. 

The Dukes (Was It The Shoes?)

It was big sports news earlier this week when the Duquesne University Dukes made the cut to participate in the NCAA men's basketball tournament for the first time in decades.  It was even bigger news when they won their first round game, upsetting 6-seeded BYU.  It was the first Dukes victory in the NCAA tourney since 1969.  

But when I was growing up in western Pennsylvania in the 1950s and 60s, and learning the game, the Dukes were the very definition of the best college basketball.  They participated in the NCAA tourney six times in the 1950s, and won the national championship in 1955. This was a whole different era, with set shots and some players still shooting foul shots underhanded. The dunk was not even a distant dream, let alone the three pointer.  From the time I could read headlines in the sports section of the local paper to later when I could read the stories, Duquesne was dominant.

On Thursday, the Dukes ran at the BYU team with athleticism and a 9-0 run to begin the game, and even after BYU took a brief lead, the Dukes went on another run and were up by 12, and maintained that lead throughout the first half.  They kept the pressure on with steals, a characteristic of their game (so of course they've been called the Pittsburgh Stealers.)  BYU came back but the Dukes edged ahead again and held on for the victory.  

Before the game (as ESPN reported Friday), the Dukes team received new shoes from LeBron James, because the Dukes' coach had previously coached LeBron for two years in high school.  So...was it the shoes?

Duquesne University was founded as a Catholic college in Pittsburgh in 1878, and became the first Catholic university in Pennsylvania.  It's a peculiarly Pittsburgh name, going back to the time before the French and Indian War when France claimed the city, guarded at the point of its three rivers by Fort Duquesne (renamed Fort Pitt when the English took over.)  A number of towns and townships in Western Pennsylvania still have their French names, though no one from France would recognize how they are locally pronounced.  Back in those 1950s, sports events on radio and TV were sponsored by both Duquesne Beer (Have a Duke, Have a Duke, Have a Duquesne Beer) and Fort Pitt Beer (Fort Pitt--That's It!)

The beers are gone (though the Duquesne brand was revived) but the Dukes still have a strong sports program for a relatively small school.  Now there must be many wondering "the what Dukes?"  They've already made a national splash.  Perhaps there's more to come.  

Reality Check

 The night of my last post, Steph Curry went down with an ankle injury towards the end of a game against the Chicago Bulls that the Golden State Warriors then narrowly lost.  He was out three games, and the Warriors lost two of them.  With Curry back and scoring 31 points in 3 quarters, they looked good beating the Lakers in LA, though the fairly early exit of Anthony Davis with a nasty eye injury might have been the key.  

Then they lost at home to the surging New York Knicks, which combined with the Lakers convincing beat down of Atlanta, dropped them into 10th place.  It was the Knicks' fifth win in a row on the road, but notably Coach Kerr and especially Steph Curry did not emphasize this momentum in their postgame comments.  Kerr said the Warriors had simply been outplayed.  Curry expanded on that idea, noting that a week or so ago he was talking about the Warriors moving up to the sixth slot for the playoffs, but now it didn't seem to matter what slot they got, if they played in the playoffs as they did against the Knicks, they wouldn't get very far.

It was a sobering reality check.  The Dubs have a physical disadvantage against particular teams but  the quality of their play is in their own hands.  So even if it was an off night, there can't be too many of those for the rest of the season or the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Kerr continues to play his depth.  Nobody cracked 30 minutes on the floor against New York but Curry and Green, and both of them barely.  In that game only Jackson-Davis was truly impressive, with 19 points and 10 boards in his twenty-some minutes.  The other bright spot is Klay Thompson, who had great games (though in slightly different ways) against both the Lakers and the Knicks.  He continues to thrive off the bench. Draymond Green may be hampered by injury, and Moses Moody is also questionable.  Obviously Dray is a big factor, and in particular matchups Moody could be. 

Now the Dubs have a chance to improve their doleful record at home with two more games this week, against Memphis and Indiana.

Stretch

 After another successful road trip and a 35 point victory over the Bucks at home (with the Bulls coming in on yet another back to back), the Golden State Warriors look game by game at the stretch run of the regular season: 21 more games.

At this point the schedule is potentially better but full of unknowns.  For example, the Dubs play Dallas and San Antonio three times each.  Of course it matters almost as much when you play a team as what team you play.  But right now, Minnesota and New Orleans look to be the only top tier teams they'll face.

Can they get to the sixth seed and out of the play-in?  It's possible, though Phoenix would seemingly have to drop down beyond that slot, and that team is hard to figure.  So far they've certainly been the disappointment of the West.  

But do they really want to?  Because as a six seed they'd probably draw Denver.  The great unknown of any playoff is how teams will perform against each other in a seven game series.  The Warriors' depth favors them in most cases, and Steve Kerr seems to be coaching not only to win the remaining games, but to prepare the entire roster for playing in the playoffs, and the roles they might fill.  But if a team has a decisive advantage, that depth may not help.  And right now the Denver Nuggets look like they have that kind of advantage over the Dubs. (Phoenix may actually match up better with Denver.)  So it's probably better for the Warriors not to face Denver in the first round. 

But then, lurking in the East there's the Boston Celtics.  Their 50 point beatdown of the Dubs at the end of a short but torturous East Coast trip was partly a product of those circumstances, and the absence of Wiggins.  But in general they do appear to be another team for which the Dubs don't have an answer.  Anything can happen before and during the playoffs--key injuries prominently.  But right now the Finals look foreordained: Denver v. Boston, with the Celtics likely to emerge at the end.

So it's best to enjoy the basketball ahead on this stretch run.  The victory over the Bucks was so much fun to watch, from lightning offence to incredible defense, including massive blocks by Jackson-Davis, J.K. and Draymond.  The Warriors scored 32 points in the fourth quarter, and the Bucks scored 9.  

 Though it may be a stretch to consider the Warriors as championship contenders, stranger things have happened.  Beyond team dynamics, skills, experience, match-ups and the will to win, the three elements of winning in the playoffs are health, momentum and luck.  They happen or they don't.  Still, getting there may be all the fun.

Happy Time?

 After a very successful road trip, the Golden State Warriors won their first two games after the All Star break--back to back at home.  Coach Steve Kerr reportedly signed a lucrative contract for the next two years, making him by some measures the highest paid coach in the NBA.  In a postgame interview he seemed almost giddy at the prospects for the rest of this season, especially because of all the young players who are suddenly blossoming.  He even called this a "fun" season, which doesn't exactly match the angst and the won-loss record.  Everyone's excited that Chris Paul will be back. So is it happy time?

Maybe--this next road trip will go a long way to figuring if the Dubs can get that sixth seed to go directly into the playoffs. The Lakers do appear vulnerable.  The Dubs have two games with Dallas and can make up a lot of ground there.  Sacramento is probably the stumbling block but the Warriors' schedule is generally favorable.  The biggest problem may be fatigue.  But this time of year the big factors are health and momentum.  By tipoff in Washington, the Warriors will be fully healthy.  They had momentum and now they must really turn it on,

Once in the playoffs, can they do damage?  Sure.  Can they win it all?  Well, there was the last home game against the Denver Nuggets.  Denver dominated, and swept their four game series--the first time any team has won all four matchups in the Kerr era.  What was clear from that game is that the Warriors have no answer for Denver's team as it currently is.  Denver is too tall, too big, too physical and too skilled.  All of that mirrors the advantages of Nicola Jokic, probably this year's MVP.  If Denver stays healthy, it may well be that nobody can stop them from repeating.  But specifically the Dubs don't seem to be currently built to do so.  Depending on how this season plays out, and mostly whether Denver repeats, that may be a concern during the off-season, when management considers the roster.  

Right now, though, Kerr is right--the current roster is fun to watch, and it is capable of beating most teams.  They won without Chris Paul and depending on how he comes back from injury, they can win even more with him.  So happy time?  Could be. 

At The Break

 At the All-Star game break, the Golden State Warriors have a winning record--barely.  They have won one game more than they've lost.  Considering they were five games underwater not so long ago, that ranks as hopeful.

But they've still got problems.  A major one resurfaced in their last two games: blowing fourth quarter leads.  They were up 14 points over the Clippers as the fourth started, and lost by 5.  They blew another double digit lead at Utah the next night, and came very close to losing that one.  

Figure in fatigue approaching the break, as well as a back-to-back, but still, it's worrisome.  On the bright side, they had a great road trip, becoming only the second Dubs team in history to win 3 road games in a row by 20 points or more.  Their schedule also gets easier in the second half of the season.  So they are well positioned to get into the playoffs, and nobody will want to face them in a 7 game series.  That's partly because the problems caused by a crowded roster is becoming a strength: their depth.  Their bench is still at times outplaying their starters, even as the starting lineup has changed.  It changed again in Utah, for awhile at least, as Klay Thompson didn't start.  He did however come off the bench for significant minutes, and a game high 35 points.  

Realistically, the Dubs can hope to play their way past play-in slots to the playoffs, but it's a difficult climb beyond fourth or fifth place.  Three teams--Denver, Minnesota and the Clippers--have been alternating at the top spot so far this season.  The Warriors will have their work cut out for them to just move up past the Lakers.  Who happen to be their first opponent when the regular season resumes.

In my previous post I failed to give Draymond Green his credit due for the Dubs resurgence.  He's become the key to the starting group, that is, the lineup that most often plays with Steph.  He's working well with the new starters, J.K. and now Podz.  Klay enjoyed being featured with the second unit, an unforeseen development.  The return of Chris Paul adds another element, when it happens.  

It's always a worry when momentum is stopped by the break, which has happened to the Dubs before.  This year they really can't afford it.  It may just be one game, that first game back, but beating the Lakers at home could mean a lot.  That road trip meant the boos at Chase Center are history.  This could be the start of something big.

Super Bowl Preview and Warriors Are Winning Finally

 The run-up to the Super Bowl pits predictions against each other.  Last time I looked, San Francisco was still the odds-on favorite with bettors, but over the last week it seems that sports commentators are heavily favoring Kansas City.  A large majority of sportswriters polled by ESPN are picking the Chiefs, ending with the Athletic predicting the Niners defeat, because of a suspect defense.

The zeitgeist has also been favoring the Chiefs, with the midwestern Kansas City touted as the American team, vs. those weirdos and lefties from San Francisco in the Republic of California.  Throw in the Taylor Swift quotient (expect thousands of new viewers to tune in just to see if she makes it from Japan to Las Vegas in time for the game) and Kansas City seems the media darling.

I will guess that the Niners looking at all this, especially after being consigned to a soggy practice field and been awakened by a false fire alarm, are feeling like unappreciated underdogs, despite the betting lines.  I will guess they have something to prove, and they may even be a little angry.  On the defensive and offensive lines especially, anger helps.  Motivation may not always win games, but it might win this one.

Meanwhile...at last!  With their new starting lineup and rotation, the still undermanned Golden State Warriors are winning.  They won 4 of 5 games on their road trip, including two by around 20 points, and the one they lost was in overtime, the second of a back-to-back in Atlanta. Then they came home to another one point game, but this time--at last!--they won it, on a final shot by Steph Curry.  They beat a western conference rival, the Phoenix Suns--something else they hadn't done recently.  With this victory the Dubs finally clawed their way back to an even record.

And indeed, they survived the trade deadline intact, losing only one bench player (Cory Joseph), who might end up back on the team anyway before the season is over.  Andrew Wiggins has--finally!--come around to playing closer to his potential.  But the big story of this period is Jonathan Kuminga, who at the start of the trade talk was supposedly on the block, and by the end was "untouchable."  His blossoming makes him clearly a major part of the Warriors' future.  Among the other pieces that are working, there is the basic dynamic of Curry dominating outside and Kuminga now punishing opponents at the rim. 

 Both Lester Quinones and Gui Santos got playing time and excelled, while Brandin Podziemski did well according to what was needed, playing significant minutes with the starters.  They all provided energy that the team fed on.  Moreover, the Warriors won a couple of those games without an ailing Klay Thompson, and all of them on the road without the injured Gary Payton II. Payton's return Saturday was electric--now the Dubs are mixing in alley-oops with Payton and JK as well as Trayce-Jackson Davis. Chris Paul may soon return, while other bench players cycle through minor injuries.  Suddenly other teams aren't going to want to see the Warriors in the playoffs, though the Dubs are going to have to keep winning to get there.   

Which Is It? The Warriors and the Trade Deadline

 There's been a fascinating tug of war going on in the media during the past week regarding the Warriors and the upcoming NBA trade deadline.  On the one hand, there are reports of the Warriors likely to stand pat, which to me are strongly reinforced by Coach Kerr's recent comments that the Warriors have the team they want, and there's not much that will improve it currently available anyway.  Then there are apparently well-sourced reports that the Warriors are listening to trade offers for nearly everybody.  (Of course they'll listen, but will they jump?) We'll know in a week who got it right.

Meanwhile with their new lineup, the Warriors are starting to look like a dynamic team again.  In their 20 point road victory over Memphis, even the bench players who haven't been playing made strong contributions.  (Then again, sportswriters will suggest they were being showcased for trade to other teams.)  The emergence of Jonathan Kuminga itself seems to have changed everything.  Is this the change that Steph Curry was talking about?  Change from within?  The Athletic's story about this had the snappy title "Urgent Evolution."  

The Warriors have several more road games before the deadline.  If they continue playing this well, will management want to mess with a suddenly successful chemistry?   Even risk yet another period of adjustment in order to figure out what to do with even a big star?  It's hard not to see a major trade as a kissoff to this season, and depending on who is traded, yet another trauma.

Heartbreak and Hope

 After sustaining yet another humiliating loss against a team of subs, the Golden State Warriors suddenly experienced true heartbreak with the death of beloved assistant coach Dejan Milojevic during a team dinner.  After two games were postponed for mourning, the Warriors responded with a double digit win over the Atlanta Hawks.  However, the next two games were authentic heartbreakers: a one point loss to Sacramento, followed by a one point loss to the Lakers in double overtime.  

The potential silver lining in these last two losses was finding a starting lineup for the future, with guards Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, forwards Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga, anchored by Draymond Green at center.  The Lakers game in particular was heartening for effort and efficiency.  Coach Kerr and the players are positive, at least in public.

If it turns out to be a turning point, is it too late for this season?  It seems pretty clear that the Warriors, slipping further below .500, are no longer among the half-dozen or perhaps even the dozen best teams.  Even Steph Curry was snubbed for the starting lineup at the All-Star Game.  Several young superstars on other teams are coming into dominance, leading their teams to high hopes. 

Meanwhile the trade deadline approaches though the sports gossip has changed.  It's become clear that Kuminga is emerging as a star, so he is no longer in trade chatter.  Nor suddenly is Andrew Wiggins.  Only Chris Paul (not playing due to injury) and perhaps Klay Thompson are talked about, apart from the younger players.  But whether the Warriors front office can make a move depends on other teams, and available players wanting to come to Golden State.  It's starting to look like the Dubs may be in the same position as the SF Giants--stars don't believe they are contenders.  Anyway, I seriously doubt that Klay Thompson is worth more to any other team than he is to the Warriors.

As for the San Francisco 49ers, the spectre of heartbreak became the hope for a Super Bowl championship with their second half in the conference final, coming back from 17 points to defeat the Detroit Lions.  As they did the previous week (though they held on to win), Detroit played a  dominant first half and all but disappeared in the second.  Some bad coaching decisions and some bad luck also figured in.  The Niners rose up to do the rest.

In a further twist, the highly favored Baltimore Ravens were smothered by the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC title game.  The Chiefs haven't looked that great all this season, in particular settling for field goals when in previous years they got touchdowns.  But they are an experienced playoff team that can outlast any opponent.  Whatever anybody expects from the Super Bowl, it's most likely to surprise.

Change

Speculation on who the Warriors could or should trade, and trade for, are nearly constant, especially online.  It's part of the clickbait noise, the sports shows whipping up business.  But the chances that the Warriors might actually be seeking a major trade jumped dramatically in just the past week.  The reasons are several and related.

After wobbling through the season nearly even, winning and mostly losing close games, adapting to injuries and suspensions, the Warriors collapsed in shocking fashion to end the homestand that was supposed to save their season.  They lost two home games in a row by big margins to inferior opponents, and lost them early.  I doubt this has ever happened before when Steph Curry was on the court. 

More to the point, the Warriors were so apparently listless, ineffective and demoralized that they got booed by members of the home crowd.  That's been reported, though I have no idea how widespread it was.  Also people in the stands noticeably left early.  The next step is that they don't show up at all.  Ownership notices something like that.

Another big element is a particular remark by Steph Curry, quoting the definition of insanity that President Obama often used, to the effect that doing the same thing and expecting a different result is crazy.  That's not exactly the franchise player saying his teammates ought to be traded away.  But an executive on the edge could interpret it as something like that--at the very least, permission.

So the rumors last week that the Warriors were resisting trading Jonathan Kuminga, probably their best trading asset besides Curry, have transformed this week into rumors that everybody is on the table except Curry.  Grain of salt of course.

The reality is that the trading deadline is less than a month away, and deals may or may not get done. How desperate should the general manager be?  The recent woes on defense could possibly be overcome by Draymond's return, eventually.  But how patient can management be in the Internet age? If other teams sense desperation, the Warriors could induce trauma without getting much back.

And at this point, trauma is a likely result to the breaking up of a dynastic team, which means trading away Klay and/or Draymond.  Fans like quick fixes, but there are none.  The current team, with maybe some tweaking, may snap out of it to make a playoff run.  A new team probably means this season is lost, and there will be empty seats.  

If the core, if the heart and soul of this team is broken, it seems to me less likely that Steve Kerr will be bothering about a new contract.  He's likely to stay the year, if he's not fired as part of a major sweep, but less likely to return next year.  

 The pressure to change at all costs could get even more intense, if for example the Warriors get blown out again by a lesser team in Chicago.  These young hungry teams now know just how to do it--take it to them from the start with energy and aggression and daring.  The Internet age is especially prone to hysteria.  This may be a test of character for Warrior front office leadership as much as for players and coaches.  The hounds are baying for them to do something.  To make changes.

   In football: right now major storms and very low temperatures are forecast to hit the Midwest and the Northeast this weekend, just in time for the NFL wildcard games. Three of the games, in Buffalo, Detroit and Kansas City, are within the zone of dangerous weather.  So far, thanks apparently to the greed of the NFL and the host cities and their teams, no games have been postponed or moved. If that continues in the face of more specific forecasts, no good will come of this, for players or fans or others.  It's tragedy waiting to happen.  Let's get priorities in order.

The Team That Doesn't Know Who They Are

As hopeful as things seemed not long ago, the Golden State Warriors prospects now seem just as dire.  Some fans and fan sites are in panic mode, calling for blood or at least a major trade.  Young Jonathan Kuminga seemed like he was goaded into some unfortunate comments criticizing Coach Kerr, then changed his tune a day later in public.  Meanwhile the roster changes again as Chris Paul has a serious injury and will be out for an undetermined time--but probably a long time (4-6 weeks or maybe much longer), while Draymond Green is set to return to the team and begin playing possibly in a week.

The catalyst for all this angst was a three game losing streak at home, the climax being a last milisecond loss to Denver, after being ahead by 18 points with less than a quarter to go.  It was yet another emotionally devastating loss, the kind that has everyone losing its sense of the team, if not demonstrably freaking out. Among the scenarios in this game--in which the Warriors played very well for three quarters--was Coach Kerr's decision not to re-insert Kuminga in the 4th quarter lineup, the cause of Kuminga's outburst.  Kerr has yet to say this was a coaching mistake (as he did when he failed to keep a hot Moses Moody in for crunch time, and watched the team lose that one as well.)  But Steph Curry came right out and said it had been a mistake.

 Yet the Warriors had to play the next night after the Denver loss, and barely beat the team currently holding the record for consecutive losses.  But drained and tired, they did win, and that meant something.  

Steph Curry's analysis after the Denver game was the most trenchant.  When asked what had gone wrong to lead to so many disappointing losses, he said there were different factors in each game but added that it's not a good position to be in when you have to explain your losses--"but that's who we are right now."

He said that right now the Warriors don't know who they are, but the Denver Nuggets do.  They know what they will do to finish games, but Golden State--with its fluctuating lineups--doesn't.  "We haven't established an identity," he concluded, "but there's still belief that we can."

The Warriors have lost a bunch of close games, and won a few.  They can be competitive, but according to Curry what is missing is this sense of identity, of knowing who they are.  They now face the adjustment to Draymond's return, not knowing how he will be different because of his suspension.  A lot of people are expecting a big trade, but that won't help the immediate identity problem, just postpone it.  As other teams loaded with high-priced stars have already discovered, that's no guarantee to establishing a team, an identity, or a winning culture.  

Their short-term hope is that Draymond can step back in and fill the gap that Chris Paul left, though Paul's presence in the locker room will still be important, especially to the younger players he's brought along.  Curry is not expressing panic--he's seen turmoil before over the years, though fans and commentators tend to forget the controversies of the past and how important they seemed at the time. The Warriors' adventure continues.

There is of course another San Francisco team that knows who they are, and if they can escape key injuries Sunday (as the Ravens did), the 49ers will soon embark on their postseason journey to the Super Bowl, where a rematch with the Ravens seems likely if not inevitable.  

Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Steelers await Sunday outcomes that will tell them if they're going into the playoffs, though without T.J. Watt their slim chances to advance very far seem further dimmed.  It would be fascinating however to see if the offensive transformation under 3rd string quarterback Mason Rudolph is to continue, or the keys given back to Kenny Pickett.  In the unlikely event they make the playoffs [update: they did], my guess is Tomlin will stay with Rudolph, but if they don't make the playoffs, next season is anybody's guess. A new offensive coordinator will have a lot to say.  In any case the Steelers have a winning season, the 17th straight non-losing season for Coach Tomlin, and the 20th straight for the Steelers overall.  A generation of winning football--something to savor.  

A New Season

Suddenly, a new team and a new season.  Kuminga and Podziemski are starting, Trayce Jackson Davis is getting meaningful minutes and looking like the big man the Warriors need.  Saric and Moody continue to make their minutes count, and Chris Paul is thriving by helping them all thrive.  With stalwart games by Klay Thompson and now Andrew Wiggins helping Steph Curry on the scoreboard as well as playing better defense, the Warriors won five in a row and held the Nuggets even for most of the game in Denver, despite playing their third game in four nights, off-nights shooting for Steph and Klay, and a huge disparity in foul calls, plus Denver's dependable sixth man: the altitude.  The result is a 15-15 record, and in a sense, the season starts here.

The Warriors went on their winning streak without Draymond, without the injured Gary Payton II, and until the Denver game, without much from Wiggins.  The streak included a win against Boston, a top tier team in the standings.  The offense is finally thriving, and though spotty at times the defense can be thrilling, with blocks from Jackson-Davis and steals from JK.  

Coach Kerr has the opportunity to mix and match his lineup choices within games, provided the players (including the vets) totally buy in to fewer minutes and more precise roles.  The win streak that included the young players should free him to make decisions based on basketball situations, because no one can argue with winning.    

With the next seven games at home, and with Payton and perhaps Draymond becoming available in that stretch, the Warriors have an opportunity to revive their prospects.  They've already reinvigorated their season.  

In the Balance

 Draymond Green's indefinite suspension adds a new level of uncertainty to the Golden State Warriors season and likely the future of this particular team.  The chaos in the system has increased, which is not often a good thing.  

Yes, opposing players who know Green's weak points do bait him (and feign sorrow and empathy afterwards) and yes, officials are hard on him and make questionable calls.  But his behavior is his behavior, and he and the Warriors own it.

As for the team in general, General Manager Dunleavy said that the next 20 games will tell the tale as to whether big (that is, personnel) changes must be made.  Right now on the court, the only thing consistent about the Warriors is losing.  They lose in a different way each game.  At Phoenix, Klay Thompson had a bad game and Steph Curry a bad shooting second half, and they lost by the points Dray gave away on his fatal fouls.  Against the Clippers, Klay was on fire for 30 points but Wiggins had a bad night and Steph had his second bad shooting game in a row. Various bench players look extremely good one game and fade the next.  The Dubs have given away games with turnovers and fouls (the most recent OKC game) and lost games in which they had few turnovers and fouls.  They seldom lose by much (two recent games by 1 point; others by 2 or 3.)  But they do find a way to lose.

Everything is up for grabs now, for even a wild card or play-in looks remote at this point.  The hope that 2021-22 can be replicated--serial chaos during the season, but finishing strong--looks like a remote possibility.  If changes are made, they may be for the future, not this year.  In any case, the Warriors are up against it.  The pressure is on to start winning, which may make winning harder.  The rest of the league is happy to beat up on the Warriors, and nobody pities them.  They've been dominant for too long.  But starting to win is the only remedy for what ails them.  The season and the future are in the balance.

A Delicate Balance

It works until it doesn't.  Last year's starting five for the Warriors was statistically the best in the NBA.  This year so far, the same starting five is near the bottom.

I saw this happen to the San Francisco Giants, I believe it was 2016, but in a more compressed and comprehensive fashion: for the first half of the season they had the best record in MLB; the second half, the worst.  That was the beginning of the team's decline and turnover and continued decline, with one last hurrah in 2021 that fell short.  

It could be as soon as the OKC game today that there's at least one change in the Warriors' starting five.  Maybe it will make a difference.  Coach Kerr has 10 very good players but no combination of them so far has looked like a team to be feared.  The Portland game was decided by a player not in the rotation, Jonathan Kuminga.  He was not only effective, he brought excitement.  The home crowd had somebody other than Steph to go wild over.    

With two-thirds of the NBA season to go, it's an awkward moment to be looking for a new balance, but better to experiment sooner than later.  It may be as simple as cutting back some of the veterans' minutes, especially in the first half of the season.  And of course, maybe not.

Speaking of a team to be feared: the San Francisco 49ers are about at that level now, though they haven't won anything yet.  But they crushed the bully boys of Philly and that counts for a lot.  Teams may talk about a challenge but nobody wants to play the Niners right now.  Still, every week is a test: beat the better teams, don't let down or let up on lesser teams.  

That mistake was made by the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the thrashing they got from Jacksonville, a team with a losing record, may have carried over to their loss to another lowly team, Boston.  When Brady was there, the Patriots too often broke the hearts of Steelers nation, and this brings it all back, dropping the Steelers out of a Wild Card spot.  With an injured starting quarterback and remaining games against tough opponents on the road, the Steelers even face the possibility of their first losing season under Coach Tomlin.

Getting Tougher

Sure it's early still, and there were some good signs in the Warriors last game against OKC but also some very troubling ones, and so in the midst of a six game losing streak, much of it at home, one thing seems obvious: nobody is afraid of the Warriors anymore.  Down by nearly 20 points, the young Thunder team came thundering back.  They weren't intimidated.  The Warriors no longer inspire fear in their opponents.

For as much as the Warriors want to forget last season, the rest of the league hasn't.  They saw that the Warriors were vulnerable, that they didn't routinely get big leads and hold them, or rally late to inevitably win.  And they are seeing this again.  Do they even respect the Warriors anymore?  They respect Steph Curry and what he can do.  But the Warriors as a team?  I wonder.  If the Warriors are still a championship team, they are making it tougher on themselves to prove it.  They're going to have to earn that respect and intimidation factor all over again.  

But there's better news in the Bay: the Niners won convincingly again.  The defense pressured and was opportunistic, and Brock Purdy had a perfect quarterback rating (whatever that means), the first in Niner history.  I guess it means he was pretty good, and there was lots of MVP buzz in the sportshysteria media.

I contrast this with the situation in Pittsburgh, where my other team lives.  They, too, have a young quarterback who showed a lot of promise before being injured late last season.  But the Steelers offense is lifeless (even considering Cleveland's vaunted defense), and Steelers fans are screaming for his head, and particularly for the offensive coordinator, the most hated man in the burgh.  Heavy sigh. 

Update: Matt Canada was fired as the Steelers' offensive coordinator, the first coaching change during a season that the Steelers have made since 1941.  At almost the same time, a poll of NFL players conducted by the NYTimes asked which coach other than their own they would like to play for.  The top choice by far was Steelers coach Mike Tomlin. 

Not So Fast (Updated)

 The Golden State Warriors started fast and then stalled, with a three game losing streak.  After 1l games they are 6-5.  Other teams rated ahead of them preseason had tougher starts, but several of them are coming around.  So it's an important moment.

There are some anomalies: last year's team couldn't win on the road, this year the Warriors can't seem to win at home.  Last year the starting five was the best in the league and reserves blew leads; this year the starters are struggling and the bench is energetic and effective.  

Most analysts point to the obvious fact that Steph Curry is having a tremendous start--his string of games with four or more 3 pointers alone is unprecedented--but he isn't getting enough scoring help.  It keeps being said that Andrew Wiggins is having a slow start, and Klay Thompson and Chris Paul are in shooting slumps.  When they come around, it is said... But what if they don't?  What if they--or any one of them-- can't?  This is always a possibility with veterans especially.  Though Dario Saric is providing more points than expected, nobody is making up for the 20 points a game they lost when Poole was sent to Washington.

Coach Kerr talks as if he sees this as one of the lows in a long season.  It's true that the Dubs caught Cleveland and Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and when you play teams matters almost as much as who you play.  But there's also this: the Warriors did well in their early games by beating teams they are supposed to beat.  But they aren't yet beating teams they need to beat, elite teams.  They especially having trouble with mobile, skilled bigs--at Denver, and against Cleveland and MN.  So far they've got no answer, offensively or defensively. 

The game Tuesday in Minnesota will really affect the narrative going forward, especially because it is an in-season tournament game.  It's hard to see how Steph can step up his game, so it's going to be up to others and the team as a whole to get it going and get it flowing--especially the starters. 

UPDATE: Wow, who could see that coming--the Warriors went into the game with MN on Tuesday knowing that Steph wasn't playing because of a sore knee (not known yet how bad the injury is.)  Then the game started and before a point was scored, there was a melee, a fracas (two words I love to use), that resulted in Klay and Draymond being ejected, unfairly if you ask their coach.  And the Dubs still almost won the game!  So losing four straight is one thing.  But how the Warriors came together in this one may turn out to be more important in the long run.  They're going to be playing with an edge.  Assuming Steph is back, and maybe even if he isn't, I don't envy being a hot OKC coming to the Warriors' house.

They're Back

 Only four games into the new NBA season and it seems the Golden State Warriors are back in the mix, big time.  They lost their home opener to Phoenix, but given their cold shooting as a team, they kept the game close.  They've had three away games so far.  Last year they lost their first eight.  This year they've won all of the first three.

Chris Paul started the first two games, in the absence of the injured Draymond Green.  By the second game at Sacramento he was already adjusted to the Golden State motion offense.  With Draymond back, he came off the bench for the first time in his storied career against Houston, and led the second team to equal or exceed the starters' in all phases. He did it again in New Orleans the very next night.  Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody were impressive, and back to being healthy, Gary Payton II was outstanding.  The rookies have gotten some minutes and showed up big, especially in rebounding.

Meanwhile Steph Curry is playing with joy again, and putting up big numbers.  He exceeded forty points in two of the four games.  In the back-to-back, he scored a total of 66 points in two nights.    

It's a long season, and so much depends on avoiding injuries.  (But even there this year's team is showing improvement: they won without Draymond in Sacramento, and without Klay and JK in New Orleans.)  But so far the Warriors are doing what they need to do to be a championship team: they are winning on the road, and they are beating teams they are supposed to beat.