Total Recall

Okay, so that's not the first Arnold pun you've seen, nor by the level of cleverness adored by major media, will it be the last. Every day changes the California recall election, but unless something major happens in the next 24 hours, the basic situation may be set: Arnold is in, Issa (the rabid reactionary who started this recall mess) is out, Feinstein is not getting in, nor is Riordan. But Democrat Lt. governor Cruz Bustamante is running with the slogan: vote no on the recall, then vote for me. And it looks like the state courts are going to let the recall election proceed in October as scheduled.

So far Bustamante is taking some hits for hypocrisy, but what he's done is just plain good sense. Recent polls showed Gray Davis even weaker than before as the recall became reality. The ballot is in two parts: yes or no on the recall is the first part. Right now sentiment is tracking yes. The second part is where you vote for the replacement governor, should the current one be recalled. Since this is not a "vote of confidence" election, and it makes no sense to recall the current governor in part one and then vote him back into office in part two, Davis cannot be a candidate to replace himself. Davis wants an all the eggs in one basket strategy for the Dems, to totally defeat the recall. But lots of Dems, in and out of office, were getting nervous about this all last week. Then Big Arnold announced, and Bustamante made his move. (Little Arnold-that is, Gary Arnold---also announced, but the only voters who care about that are the ones who are uncertain whether to vote for him or Larry Flynt.)

The media is currently concentrating on Big Arnold, and whether his candidacy might be derailed by "revelations." not from on high but from down low. Of course this is what the media would be concentrating on, especially with a candidate who announced on the Tonight Show. And they'll probably keep their cameras trained on the Arnold show for the next few weeks.

In which case, they'll miss the story. (Hey, they wouldn’t be the media if they didn’t.) Unless Arnold runs a brilliant campaign (his first words hardly suggest he will) and Bustamante runs a terrible one (his announcement was not very well handled, media-wise), then the governorship is likely to remain Democratic. And here's why:

The recall so far has all been about polls, hype, and getting people to register their anger and fear by signing their name outside the supermarket or post office. Californians will sign anything. It's their California-given right. But most of them don't bother voting, even on the propositions their signatures put on the ballot.

Voting is a different dynamic. It all happens the same day, so old-fashioned organizing and organizations are important to getting people to the polls. The Democrats swept the state last time. The patriotic wave for Bush has mostly crested, the surf is no longer up. There may not be a lot of grassroots GOP enthusiasm for Arnold. Rabid conservatives upset with Arnold's views on abortion and gun control may very well go to Bill Simon, their candidate last time, who is on the ballot this time, too.

By the numbers, Cruz Bustamante was the top vote getter in the state just two years ago. It's not because he has startling name recognition. I doubt if he's ever been on the Tonight show. He's not even especially telegenic. But he's a Democrat and he's Latino. Latino voters know him well. No Latino has ever been elected governor. California has no majority population, but the next time it does, it will be Latino. Bustamante is the future, and the future may be now.

So now the Democrats have two decent chances to hold the governorship. Gray Davis will put a lot of money into defeating the recall. That in itself may succeed. Unions will provide organizing, and get their people to the polls. (That Arnold is so aggressively anti-union will help their motivation.) They will be urged to vote no on the recall. But regardless of how they vote on the first question, they can vote on the second, and chances are they'll vote for Bustamante. He is after all the Lt. Governor.

But Davis has indicated he intends to spend the next couple of months governing, "trying to make the lives of Californians better." That's a somewhat better strategy than he started out with, which was Issa-bashing. Bustamante immediately criticized it and told him not to dare going negative. He's running again on "experience," even though this is his greatest weakness---he ran and won on experience, and has gone a long way towards turning it into a dirty word.
People are looking for leadership, and Arnold is sounding that theme. The problems of California are not the fault of Gray Davis, but his leadership has been lacking. But at a time when Davis' best hope is bold leadership and laying out a courageous vision for the future, he seems to be saying he's going to hunker down.

Dissatisfaction with that may be enough to push the recall button to Bye Bye Gray. Then Bustamante should win. If he can articulate a vision and show leadership, he's got the experience to make people more comfortable voting for him in time of crisis.

He may lose some votes on the left to the Green Party candidate and Arianna Huffington, although I wouldn't be surprised if she withdraws in September in favor of Cruz. Peter Camejo is the Green Party candidate, and in some ways has better credentials in advocating for Latinos. But he's running his campaign against Gray Davis. Democrats are not going to vote for him, especially with the memory of Nader and his indirect role in the Bush putsch. Rank and file Democrats are likely to vote against the recall and for Bustamante.

With moderate to conservative Democrats and an energized Latino electorate, Bustamante should have enough to win in a very crowded field. I don't think the Hollywood liberals will vote for Arnold, even if he is pretty liberal on social issues. Not if Cruz looks like he can win. Sometimes liberal guilt actually works out for the best.

A lot will depend on Bustamante. Can he articulate a strong, clear and sensible vision? Can he differentiate himself from Davis without criticizing Davis? He is supporting a "no" on recall, so he's not running against Davis. Then again, he is. It's delicate but doable.

This applecart might be spilled by a higher profile Democrat getting into the race. Leon Panetta is mentioned. Bad idea. Bad for the party, bad for him, now that Bustamante is in the race. I don't know what Panetta's political base is. I do know that he often comes across on TV as softly arrogant, especially when he starts every sentence with "Obviously." Few if any of the Clinton appointees did well at the polls last time. (Come on, you can't count Hillary.)

So pretty soon we may not be talking about Total Recall. We'll be looking at Cruz control.