The Day After

A day earlier than expected, Howard Dean dropped out of the presidential primary race, saying he would support the eventual Democratic nominee, and will dedicate his organization to defeating G.W. Bush in November.

A USA Today poll showed John Kerry with a double digit lead over Bush among likely voters. For the first time, another Democrat—John Edwards—also is shown beating Bush, though only Kerry polls over Bush among “all voters.”

Edwards is getting a bump from the coverage, though some question whether that’s because the pollsters stopped polling too soon, and his “surprise” showing was more a story about the polls than about him. The coverage also invites more scrutiny, and while many agree he is an attractive candidate, they question his credentials. For example, NY Times columnist Richard Cohen begins his Thursday column this way: “In his stump speech, John Edwards talks about a girl ‘somewhere in America’who ‘will go to bed hungry, hoping and praying that tomorrow will not be as cold as today, because she doesn't have the coat to keep her warm.’ That wan and pitiful child, a creation of Edwards's vivid imagination, has been on my mind a lot lately. I can see Edwards tucking her in. But I'm not sure he knows what to do with her once she wakes up.”

The Wisconsin stats also show that despite Edwards’ appeal to the jobless and poor, Kerry carried the vote of voters in the lowest socioeconomic categories.

The talk continues to be that Edwards will essentially bypass California (where one byliner felt his star quality would help him) to concentrate on Ohio and Georgia, and either New York or Minnesota, depending on the story, and perhaps Maryland. Of the ten states on Super Tuesday, we still think California, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont will go big for Kerry; Minnesota, Maryland and Ohio will go to Kerry but perhaps by under 10 points, and Georgia is a toss-up. But of course there are still 13 days to go. Kerry will probably stagger endorsements throughout the period so there's a news hook every day for him. So far Edwards has only demonstrated that with a concerted effort, outspending on media and with lots of personal campaigning, he can surge towards election day and...come in a closer than expected second, except in the state where he was born, which he won (and where Kerry did not exert maximum effort to defeat him.) His best shot, say the pundits, is the debate. That shouldn't be terribly comforting to his supporters.