Within the past few weeks, both John Edwards and Howard Dean declared Wisconsin a must-win state for their campaigns. They both backed off that stand, but if neither of them gets even a quarter of the vote, which now looks likely, they may have to avail themselves of at least a semi-withdrawal from the race. Look for Dean or Edwards or both to announce they are "suspending" their campaigns but not releasing their delegates. This gives them that remote possibility of a collapse of the Kerry campaign, or actually it would have to be a collapse of Kerry, so the convention has to turn to another nominee.

Dean is the most beleaguered. His staff is in virtual revolt, and it's likely that he will have to replace key staffers with volunteers if he is to continue his campaign in any form. John Edwards left the campaign trail to attend fund-raisers several times in the last week, so there's a real question whether he can afford to go on. Clearly neither has the money, or will get the money, to even begin to be competitive in the ten states voting on Super Tuesday, which include California, New York and Ohio.

On Saturday John Kerry won the caucuses in Nevada and in D.C. D.C. had previously given Dean his only "win" in a non-binding caucus. This however was the real one. The candidate's debate today in Wisconsin was notable for Dean backing off the opportunity to hit Kerry on special interest money, after the Bush campaign made it the subject of its first official ad (though Internet only). The Washington Post congratulated the Bushies on their nerve, for the amount of special interest money from major corporations and wealthy donors flowing into the Bush campaigns, and the obvious payoffs to past contributors, is a major Bush vulnerability. Meanwhile several public interest groups agree that when all special interest contributions are added up, Kerry ranks 92nd out of 100 Senators. He has taken less lobbyist money in this campaign than Dean, Edwards or any other Democratic candidate. Even if the total amount featured in the Bush ad is correct---$640,000 over 12 years for Kerry---it pales in comparison to Bush who took in $6.5 million in 2003 alone.

Kerry, the media bobbleheads all agreed afterwards, looked "presidential."

Another interesting moment in the Wisconsin debate was after John Edwards made his usual somewhat disingenuous pitch that he "understands" the problems of working people better because he comes from a working class background, although he doesn't dispute that Kerry and Dean would be just as sensitive to the issues of jobs and poverty. Al Sharpton debunked Edwards simply by saying that good people are good people, it doesn't matter what race or whether they went to prep school or not. Clarence Thomas is black and comes from a similar background, but he and Sharpton come to completely different conclusions on the issues, Sharpton said.