Endorsements and Polls


Kerry is beating Bush in newspaper endorsements in Florida 22-3. Tomorrow (Monday) early voting begins in Florida. Kerry is ahead in that state in some polls, a touch behind in others.

Newspapers in other battleground states (such as Dayton, Ohio) endorsed Kerry today. The latest Zogby poll shows Kerry with a ten point lead in battleground states.

However, the new CNN/Gallup Poll shows Bush opening an eight point lead among likely voters. This poll is meaningful only in how CNN and other media sheep choose to play it in terms of the emphasis of their coverage. Among registered voters in this poll, the change from last week is insignificant, and the race is still essentially tied.

Because of the varied ways in which these polls measure "likely" voters, and because new voters are by definition not likely ones in these polls, and because more questions are arising about the accuracy of polls especially due to the prevalence of cell phones (many lower income families use only cell phones) which are not accessible to pollsters, expert observers are counselling that the registered voter poll is more likely to be indicative. A poli sci prof that one of the blogs we read quotes (they go by in a blur) counsels further that if Bush is not ahead by four points, he loses.

The internals in these polls continue to look bad for Bush, good for Kerry; the battleground states polls also continue to look good for Kerry. The bad effect of the Bush-ahead polls is to suppress enthusiasm and therefore turnout. Can't let that happen.