Ups and downs

Reasons for optimism: Zogby poll shows Kerry closing on Bush's recent lead, now tied; battleground states continue to trend towards Kerry; Bush's approval numbers still hover around 50% (in CBS/NYT poll it's at 44%) and no recent president has been re-elected with less than 50% approval, because late deciding voters trend towards the challenger. There is little or no good news for Bush, Kerry did well in the debates and so innoculated himself against charges of flip-flopping. There are untold numbers of new voters and members of various minority groups likely to vote for Kerry; new registrations especially in swing states trend towards Democrats. Kerry's core voters are now strongly committed to voting, and there are thousands of activists committed to getting out that vote.

Reasons for pessimism: Bush is ahead by an average of five points in likely voter polls, despite everything: losing all three debates, the bad news, the horrendous record. Undecideds may not break towards the challenger in what is perceived to be a time of war, when people may feel threatened. GOPers may have successfully suppressed Democratic and minority registration in key states (i.e. vote fraud) enough to almost nullify gains. Karl Rove, the evil genius, may have successfully warped the national consciousness into submission.

The conclusion is that the race is still close and the outcome is still uncertain, two weeks before the election. But what depresses some Kerry advocates---and it does seem that some are sinking back into the September depression---is the belief that the evidence against Bush is so extreme that in a sane country Kerry would be WAY WAY ahead in the polls, and therefore, not only do we face the possibility of an utterly ruinous second Bush term, but his election (or reappointment) would be the final and most terrifying evidence that America is functionally insane.