It's Not Over

The major sentiment among political observers is that John Kerry has momentum and George Bush is slipping towards defeat---an opinion shared by none other than GOPer pollster Frank Luntz.

But so far this is not reflected in polls. There is one poll showing Kerry with a one point lead, a couple showing a dead heat, and 3 tracking polls showing an unaccountably bounce for Bush. There seems to be no reason for this, but one of them is the usually reliable Zogby poll. So it isn't over by a longshot, and turning out unpolled voters becomes even more crucial.

The most recent polls in the midwestern battleground states however do show Kerry gains. And there is one small surprise---a tightened race in Arkansas. Tight enough perhaps that a visit by Bill Clinton could make the difference.

The New York Times suggests that Nader could be the destructive factor many feared he might be, especially in these battleground states. However, his running mate in the past two election cycles, Native American activist Winona LaDuke, has come out publicly for Kerry. This may help motivate poll workers on the reservations to get the vote out for Kerry on election day.