Three for Three

The post-debate polls are unanimous in proclaiming John Kerry the winner of the third debate. Although some of the mighty media stars called it a draw (as per prediction), several lesser analysts (the kind who actually talk with voters) gave it to Kerry.

The CBS poll of a selected group of uncommitted voters was the most revealing. They gave the debate to Kerry 39% to 25%, with 36% rating it a tie. But some other numbers were very interesting. Before the debate, 29% said that Kerry took clear positions on issues. After the debate, it was 60%. And 70% said they had learned something from the debate.

Kerry continued to look presidential. He was calm, methodical and focused. He made eye contact with the camera often, especially when he was making his most forceful points. Once again he used revealing statistics referring to Arizona, where the debate was held. He did two things: he shored up the general impression of him as presidential and as commander-in-chief; and he carefully calibrated his answers to appeal to many specific groups in his base, as well as to voters in the battleground states.

So he was much stronger in saying he supported Roe v. Wade and a woman's right to choose; he talked about affirmative action and the legacy of racism; he talked with great understanding about the lives of homosexuals in this society. In his answer about religion, he even mentioned receiving a Native American blessing.

It was a tactical performance rather than a great performance. He didn't leave the viewer with memorable lines. Unless we're remembering incorrectly, Latino issues weren't mentioned except for immigration. Other important domestic issues that didn't even come up significantly were the environment, broad energy policy, and surprisingly, stem cell research. All of those are Kerry strong points, and together they say a lot about what will make a Kerry administration different.

But Kerry did successfully deflect the Bushie issues. He had a much better answer on assault weapons and gun control, deftly including a little anecdote that involved him hunting with a police officer out west. Take that, Mr. lawn order outside cleaning the brush.

Bloggers are emphasizing Bush's smirks, his inappropriate chuckles, bad jokes, and even foaming at the mouth. It was clear that Bush wanted most of all to be done with these debates. But we think he had some good moments, though it's not clear how he helped himself, even with his base. But some of that depends on whether the "liberal senator from Massachusetts" is still as powerful a mantra as it once was.

Like Cheney, Bush deflected questions about jobs with answers about education. When he was asked about racism, he talked about education. He began to leave the impression that people are unemployed and/or black because they are uneducated, possibly stupid.

Essentially, there was nothing surprising about this debate, except that it was surprising how little it resembled what most commentators thought it would or should be. Bush did not liberal-bash all night. Kerry did not go at Bush with devastating lines in a frontal attack.

Perhaps Kerry was looking ahead, too. It will be interesting to see how his demeanor of calm confidence played with voters. If the CBS group is any indication, he continued to make progress in his mission.