Tuesday, January 29, 2008


With about 30% of the GOPer votes counted, McCain is slightly ahead of Romney, and some of his reputed strongholds have yet to report, so he may win it. MSNBC is reporting his money woes have been exaggerated, and he's going for a big media strategy for Tsunami Tuesday, hoping to pick up Ahnold's endorsement in CA.

Hillary's event has started and is getting skeptical but actual TV coverage, so it's working for her so far. The exit polling info shows however that Obama was picking up support as election day drew closer, and that half of the voters today said that the Kennedys endorsements were important in their decision. Right now Clinton is under 50%, and if that continues, it's a good indicator for Obama. That no Democrats campaigned in Florida favored the early frontrunner, so anything approaching 40% for Obama is encouraging.

Lots of reports of--what else--voting irregularities and botched elections in Florida.

Both CNN and MSNBC cut away from Hillary after a few minutes. Interesting. (But later they all give her face time in interviews. Keith tries to get her to explain how Florida delegates are ever going to count, but she doesn't. The most plausible explanation I've heard is that both Fla and Michigan will have to set up some procedure--like a caucus--to decide on delegates before they ask the Convention to seat them, because they can't retroactively make these primaries valid.)

Huckabee as expected is finishing third or fourth, and as expected, is not dropping out. He's becoming the GOPers John Edwards.

If the MSNBC conservatives are any indication, tonight's results are setting up a battle royale within the Republican party over McCain vs. Romney. It sounds like it's going to be bitter. But what's striking it seems to be based on people opposing one of the two guys rather than being for one or the other.

Howard Fineman is reporting that Rudy is definitely going to get out and endorse John McCain, though the timing is still being worked out. (On the other hand Howard reported on Saturday that Ted Kennedy wasn't going to endorse anyone.)

Now the networks are calling it for McCain. Huckabee cost Romney votes in key counties, and he's staying in. Rudy is probably getting out and endorsing McCain. If all that plays out, it looks very good for McCain.

Rudy is speaking now. Doesn't sound like he's getting out tonight. (ABC News says it's definite that he does drop out tomorrow and endorses McCain.) (Now widely reported that Rudy endorses McCain Wednesday at Reagan Library in CA before the TT GOPer debate there tomorrow night.)

Romney spoke. McCain spoke--he won a Republican only primary, destroyed Romney on issue of electability and perhaps most importantly for him--after being widely quoted as saying he doesn't know much about economics-- he beat Romney on the issue of who does better for the economy. He has to be the favorite now for real.

Meanwhile, Al Giordano's take on the Dem primary in Florida in what's getting to be my favorite blog: On the Democratic side, Mike Gravel tied Clinton, Obama and Edwards for zero delegates.

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