Waiting for Ted

"Everybody needs to contribute to the common good. This is no time for foolishness."--Vasilisa Hamilton, South Carolina Obama supporter.

Monday's big event should be Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama at American University. But a few notes before that...

First, a couple of more endorsements Sunday: the Seattle Times newspaper, and the 60's icon, Tom Hayden.

Some bloggers are going over the poll numbers, which often show a large lead for Hillary in many Super Tuesday states. Endorsements of both Senators and the Governor can't ensure that Obama can close the gap even in Massachusetts. There are a couple of things to say about this. First, we could very well see dramatic differences in the next round of polls, particularly if taken after tomorrow. Second, the polls have often gotten Obama's vote numbers wrong. But this was one of the many themes Obama sounded in his victory speech, which I'm seeing more and more as the blueprint for victory specifically on Super Tuesday. He said it was going to be hard. Even with the momentum that keeps building, and the growing disenchantment with the Clintons.

It's these two factors going in opposite directions that could result in a 30 point swing in one week: Obama's growing popularity, and the Clintons' falling from favor. We'll see if Billary's support is as deep as it is wide. Pundits suggest even the Washington politicos are upset with them. Out in the country, Democratic leaders aren't dumb--they must notice that Obama is bringing thousands and potentially millions of new voters for Democrats. If they're truly interested in building a stronger, bigger and more diverse party, they have to take note of this.

Strategists among those Super Delegates and party officials at state and local levels have to notice that the South is suddenly in play with Obama leading the ticket. Add some of those states to the usually blue, and everybody wins. Real enthusiasm means new workers and a new cause, which could translate into Democratic members of Congress, state legislators, mayors and aldermen.

It's also becoming likely that the Clintons aren't going to change their strategy. One unnamed campaign official refers to Obama as "the black candidate." Bill Clinton out of the blue mentions that Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice, and then mentions Obama's campaign. (Josh Marshall shows that in addition to being racially pointed, this remark lacks relevance in that Jackson's victories in 1984 and 1988 were in caucuses, and not as contested. They certainly weren't a hundred thousand vote blowouts of the leading national candidate.) This is clearly the same strategy: ghettoize Obama.

Now Hillary is going to manufacture a primary win before Super Tuesday by appearing in Florida on primary night, having deceptively trolled for votes by announcing that she supported seating the Florida delegates. There are several bloggers who show how the only way that seating the Florida and Michigan delegates will happen is if Hillary has a majority of convention delegates, in which case it won't matter. But if she goes to the convention without a majority, it's very unlikely to happen.

We'll see how the media responds to her Florida ploy Tuesday (although clearly that night's story is going to be whoever wins the Republican primary, and who therefore loses. Latest polls still show it very tight between Romney and McCain.)

Like all Senators and Members of Congress, Hillary will be in Washington tomorrow, too. I wonder what she's going to do while Ted and Barack (and who knows who else) are rallying at American University. But word came in late today that both Clinton and Obama are going to the Senate to vote against the Republican cloture of the FISA bill.