Live Blogging Iowa


630PT: NBC is calling it for Obama. Chris Matthews can't stop talking about how big a victory this is, and how it's going to be global news.

6 pm PT: CNN is calling the GOPer straw vote for Huckabee, by a significant margin. NBC quickly followed. Entrance poll shows that 60% of the total GOPer voters were evangelical Christians.

David Gregory points out something important on the Dem side. The sheer number of votes don't entirely matter--it's kind of an electoral college situation, with the total number of delegates fixed by turnout the last time. This was always an Edwards strategy--that if he did well in the rural districts, that could offset big numbers for Hillary or Obama in the cities. Right now, with about a fourth of the delegates allocated, Obama is slightly ahead but they're all bunched around a third of the total.

5:50
The first results are coming in. What's interesting to me is the 0% for uncommitted, which means that supporters of the second tier candidates are going to someone else as second choice, and not to uncommitted. There's been talk all day of deals (denied by Biden and Richardson representatives) which would trade votes for them where Obama has more than enough, in exchange for second choice votes elsewhere.

545 PT: Donna Braizile on CNN is spinning incoming entrance poll stats as good news for Hillary, while MSNBC is projecting an Obama lead, and word is that turnout could be as high as 200,000, when 130,00 was expected and the Obama people were hoping for 150, 000. But it still matters who those new voters are.

A couple of interesting observations about Independents in Iowa. Independents and even Republicans can choose to caucus with the Democrats. Tim Russert points out that if a lot of Is and Rs are caucusing Dem, it suggests that Iowa could go Dem in the general election (it went for Gore in 2000 but Bush in 04.)
Also, Chuck Todd suggests that if Hillary loses because of so many Is and Rs, her spinmeisters will suggest that the choice of real Democrats is not yet known (and won't be next week either, as Is can vote in the D primary in New Hampshire.

5:15 PT: Early entrance poll indications that turnout is indeed big. MSNBC is monitoring one precinct in Des Moines where turnout for the Dems is more than three times what it was in 2004. Also, a computer model shows the possibility of a strong showing by Ron Paul among the Republicans, possibly even third place.

4:45pm PT: The caucuses have begun. Weather across the state was favorable to a large turnout (i.e. cold but no storms or snow.) Apparently the doors closed about fifteen minutes ago, and if the turnout is big, it will probably take longer to sort things out. Republicans have a quicker, secret ballot process, so their results will probably be known first--maybe an hour from now.


Actually, it's live-blogging only in a loose sense--just updates through the evening as warranted.

It's mid afternoon in California and still more than an hour before the Iowa caucuses start. The buzz however continues to be for Obama. Zogby has been polling daily, and today's has Obama ahead for the first time: it's Obama 31%, Edwards 27%, Hillary 24%. Lots of talk of deal or no deal, most of it involving Obama as well.