Obamamania

It's hit New Hampshire. Accounts of large enthusiastic crowds for Obama, smaller ones for Hillary. According to some polls, Obama was already trending upward in New Hampshire before Iowa. Now he's pulling ahead: American Research tracking poll has him up by 12 points: he's beating Edwards among men, and Hillary among women. Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 10 points. They have Obama leading among Democrats by five points and among Independents (40% of New Hampshire's electorate) by 16 points.

"If we cast aside our fear and cast aside our cynicism and we stand up for what we genuinely believe, this is our moment, this is our time, you can feel it, you can see it," Obama told an overflow crowd in Nashua.

So far the polls I've seen haven't shown much of an Iowa bounce for Huckabee among NH GOPers. But more info on this should be available Sunday. Meanwhile, there are debates today for both parties' contenders. It may be Hillary's last chance to affect the outcome Tuesday, and Huckabee's only chance for GOPer voters to take a good look at him. He's still polling in the 11-12 % range.

Katherine Hall Jameison was on Bill Moyers last night. I always listen to what she has to say about the intersection of politics and media. She made a good point that commentators (especially Chris Matthews) who kept saying that two-thirds of the Iowa caucus voters voted against Hillary. She pointed out that the vote was for someone, not against anyone, and could indicate a preference among acceptable alternatives. She's right, especially this year. Polls show Democrats are pleased with the candidates running.

Where I differ from her is her assertion that the prediction that Huckabee will do less well in New Hampshire because of fewer Evangelical voters is an unfounded extrapolation. I think the data from Iowa entrance/exit polls pretty strongly indicates that Huckabee got most of his support from Evangelicals, and scant votes from GOPers who aren't. If he's going to be really viable, he'll have to do well in more groups than one.