Monday, February 11, 2008

March On

Not in the department of counting chickens before they're hatched, but in a cautionary mode, a fairly devastating piece in the New York Times to be published Tuesday morning:

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.

In the Potomac Primary states, polls have Obama so far ahead that it's making me queasy. It's been dangerous to him in some past contests because, I believe, some Obama voters stayed home figuring he would win easily, and Hillary got sympathy votes for being behind. For me, assuming he wins, Obama's margins tomorrow vs. the poll spread will tell me whether we're past this kind of reaction.

In the meantime, I've just looked at a couple of Washington videos about Obama appearances in Virginia and Maryland today that couldn't have been more on message if the Obama campaign had made them. The College Park Maryland appearance intercut interviews with a black woman and a black man--both past 30 or 40-- talking about change. She said she hadn't expected change to happen in her lifetime, until now. He said, "this is not a campaign for the presidency, this is a movement for the future of America."

Even the reporter for Hotline, who gave a crowd estimate of 18,000 at College Park, got the fever.

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