Wisconsin Monday

I moaned about the dearth of specific information on Wisconsin, not only here but on Daily Kos. There I got some answers from the field--and speaking of that, from the Field later on.

One commenter--a Wisconsin U.S. Senator candidate no less-- responded with a pretty precise district breakdown, and others added to that. (This is what Al G. has started doing at the Field blog.) Ben Masel's general conclusion: Nobody knows how to poll this primary, wildcards include at the polls registration, crossover, and weather...Statewide, Obama by 4-6%. Turnout: Highest of any of the States in the cycle.

There were a number of comments from Obama campaigners in Wisconsin who were uneasy. Several agreed it was likely to be close, and there are a lot of undecideds even at this point. Some felt a Hillary victory was still possible, though the delegate split is likely to be pretty even.

One commenter (appropriately called notscared) made this (comforting) observation that also has a ring of plausibility:

Obama wins by at least 10 points...
I don't think this one is going to be close for the following reasons.
Obama has a superior ground game. If both campaigns had an equal ground and were campaigning hard I would give the nod to Clinton because the demographics suite her. But I think his ground games makes a big difference.
Same day registration. This benefits Obama because of the excitement factor. Most of Clinton's supporters are already in the system and are more then likely to be polled, not so for new Obama supporters.

Independents and Republicans. Independents and Republicans can vote is this primary and this obviously benefits Obama because of his cross-over appeal.
Endorsements. Endorsements don't usually matter but without a heavy Clinton presence strong Endorsements from the local politicians make a difference to the undecides. Add 1.5 to 2 points for everyone of the above and you should have a strong Obama victory.

Perhaps because her events were snowed out Sunday, perhaps due to the polling, Hillary is reportedly going to hold campaign events in Wisconsin all day Monday, instead of leaving after one event this morning. Obama has an event in Ohio in the morning, and one in Beloit, Wisconsin later in the day.

Meanwhile the Clinton campaign waited until the last minute to put out a negative flyer accusing Obama of not covering 15 million people with his health care plan, and asking on the front of it--over a photo of a demographically balanced group of actors--"Barack Obama, which of these people don't deserve health care?" The Obama campaign countered with a conference call to reporters with the Wisconsin governor and also with Ted Kennedy, who called the flyer "a distortion, a misrepresentation and wrong."

This is the same tactic used in New Hampshire, with a last day flyer questioning Obama's support of a woman's right to choose. Hillary squeaked through with a lot of women's votes, though the flyer's lies ultimately led to several prominent women activists condemning it, and at least one withdrew her support from Hillary and became an active supporter of Obama.

Slight update: There seems to be a lot of buzz about a couple of campaign appearances by Bill Clinton, in which he engaged in angry exchanges with hecklers. If this dominates the media guff today, that can't be good for Hillary, though it depends on how and whether it sinks in with voters in Wisconsin.