The Storm Before the Games

Going into the weekend before the NBA conference finals, a few especially interesting takes among the usual noise.

While the ESPN experts pretty unanimously pick Golden State (and Cleveland), the numbers folks at 538 say that Houston has a 79% chance of going to the Finals.

However, this prediction itself was panned by the big lead.

Sports Illustrated was pretty direct in its predictions:

"As long as everyone is healthy, Golden State really shouldn't be threatened by anyone. I hope I'm wrong about this, and it would be great if we're about to enter two weeks of Warriors–Rockets chaos, but Steph Curry already warned everyone about overthinking it. Nobody can guard Kevin Durant. If he plays his best basketball over the next month, the playoffs are already over."

The rest of SI's analysis is interesting--and well-written.

A lot of the comments in other places as well focus on the difference between playoff basketball and regular season.  The Rockets found themselves in the regular season, but the Warriors know how to perform in the playoffs.  SI emphasized the efficiency of Steph Curry and KD, and the level that Draymond hits (and hit immediately in the first series) in the playoffs.

But 538 does have some good points, especially the potential importance of home court, which belongs to Houston.

As a rule of thumb from just a viewer, the crucial games in a playoff series are 1 and 5 and of course 7.  The ball is literally in the court of the home team in game 1--victory by the visitors (the Dubs, in this case) is very big.  On the other hand, the visitors figure they've done their job if they get one win out of the first two.

In a fairly evenly matched series, the first game is especially crucial, because the other team always adjusts to a defeat.  Perhaps because of these alternating currents, the winner of game 5 almost always wins the series.

 If the Warriors win on Monday, the Rockets are in serious trouble.  But this will still be a series, every game until it's over.

Meanwhile, after their surge, the San Francisco Giants have lost 5 straight, mostly due to pitchers being beaten up and their hitters striking out.  But Andrew McCutchen did get a hero's welcome his first game back in Pittsburgh.  That's great--the city's sports fans weren't always so classy.  There were video tributes and standing ovations--they love the Cutch in Pittsburgh.

The Western Showdown is Coming

Update Tuesday: As was foretold you, the Warriors and Rockets both advanced to the championship round in their fifth game on Tuesday, and by nearly identical scores.  Now comes nearly a week of analysis and prediction, but at this point it seems these teams are pretty evenly matched.  If the series goes to 7 games, Houston has the traditional home court edge.  This much can be said now: the Rockets have been playing their best basketball of the year.  To beat them, the Warriors will need to play their best basketball of the year.


When you are down 2-0 in a playoff series, you coach and play for only the next game.  But when you are up 2-0, you can play also for the series.  That's what Coach Kerr did for the third game of round 2.  Knowing that the Warriors were to play two games on the road with only a day between them, he sent out a lineup that was different from the kind of lineup that had won the first two games.  He did it to rest Iggy and to be able to limit Steph Curry's minutes and lessen his role in his second game back from injury.  In terms of conditioning, the second game back--after the adrenalin rush of the first return--is the most difficult.

But Kerr returned to the small lineup, his best five players (he said) for the fourth game on Sunday, and the Dubs defeated New Orleans by 26 points.  It will be shocking if the series doesn't end on the Warriors home floor in game 5.

Houston seems just as likely to end their series, so the predicted Western showdown is about to occur, and it promises to be the hardest-fought series of the entire post-season.

In the east, it may take Toronto a long time to recover from its complete collapse and capitulation to the Cavs.  Game 4 was barely contested.  TO gave up.  There could be major changes, and should be coaching changes, there soon.

Philadelphia avoided a similar collapse by beating back Boston in their fourth game, but the odds of course still are that Cleveland will meet the surprising Celtics.  With Kyrie down, the Celtics are really a wild card in this series but certainly start out as underdogs.  The Cavs lucked out with their opponent in the second round, and may have again in the championship round.  But neither team seems a match for either team from the West, and in either case it looks to be another short finals series.

Stephless No More

Steph is back.

Steph Curry came off the bench against New Orleans in the second game of the second round--an idea I had as a strategic advantage. So I assumed Coach Kerr had a similar thought about confusing the Pelicans defense.  But apparently it was Steph's idea.

His shooting was there from the start.  He ended up with 28 points.  The rust showed in bad passes and not anticipating Anthony Davis' ability to block shots. He should be up to speed by Friday, when he is set to start in the third game, this time in New Orleans.

Coach Kerr's decision to field a small lineup against the speedy Pelicans is working.   Judging by the first two games, I expect the Pelicans to win one, maybe two, but the Dubs to prevail in 5 or 6.

The other Western Conference match-up got interesting Wednesday when Utah defeated Houston, tying that series at 1-1.  Now it goes to Utah.  Yes, very interesting.

In the East: How many miracles can LeBron perform to keep Cleveland going?  It took seven games for them to win the first round.  The Cavs won the first game of the second round over Toronto by coming back to tie and then winning in overtime. They led the game only at the end.  Everything depends on how Toronto responds to this game.  But at this point, it seems the Cavs dinking into the finals really would be a miracle.

Thursday update: TO responded badly, and down 2-0 on the road, they've got a massive hill to climb, starting with their confidence. Undermanned  Boston is surprising many by handling golden Philadelphia.  And the Houston-Utah series is 1-1.  That's three wows right there. 

Meanwhile after a challenging April the Giants just climbed back over .500.  They've won 4 straight series, including one over the Dodgers.  Highlight of Wednesday was the return of lh reliever Will Smith.  They're also providing some exciting baseball for Giants fans.

NBA Playoffs Taking Shape

Heading for the second round, the NBA playoffs begin to take shape.  The big news so far is the New Orleans Pelicans.  They dispatched the favored Portland Trailblazers in four emphatic games, for the only sweep of the round.  If the Golden State Warriors finish their first round with a 5th game victory at home tonight, they will meet this weekend to begin the second round.

The Pelicans have strong momentum, always important in the postseason.  The Warriors are still without Steph Curry and may remain so for awhile. They are otherwise banged up as well.

New Orleans looked to be a strong challenger for whoever played them, especially Houston and Golden State.  By dropping to second seed, the Warriors drew the Pelicans, the team most likely to slow down the Rockets, and perhaps eliminate them.  Now that's not going to happen in this round, and the Warriors are in for a fight.  So the Warriors-Pelicans could be a difficult and even fateful series.

Utah is likely to emerge as the winner against OKC, which may also be good for the Rockets, as OKC is the other team that gave them trouble.  The Rockets looked rocky in the first round, but they dropped 50 points in one quarter of game 4 on Monday, which has to be getting everybody's attention.

In the East, Cleveland has looked shaky-- their first round will go at least six games, and a long series early is not good for the Cavs.  Philadelphia looks the strongest, with Toronto behind them, with Boston a dark horse.  Philadelphia feels like the team of destiny there.  The Pelicans are a legitimate dark horse team in the West, with the Warriors and the Rockets still most likely to meet in the conference championship series.   But that's likely a month away, so hang on.

The disturbing trend of the first round has been the acrimony, fighting and possibly even attempts to injure.  It hasn't affected the Warriors yet--the Dubs and the Spurs are two of the classiest teams in the league--but egos elsewhere are out of the control.

After a hard luck start (losing your top three starting pitchers and top two relief pitchers seems to qualify) the San Francisco Giants began to stabilize in the past week or so.  Getting two of those pitchers back--both with strong first starts--probably helped, but so did the cold veteran bats coming around.

But the big news was the return of Mac Williamson with a whole new stroke.  He homered to win one game, and on Monday, blasted the longest home run by a Giant at home in several years, 464 feet, to win that game.   With Williamson an unexpected jolt in the outfield, the surprisingly (at least to me) effective job Hunter Strickland has done as the closer, and the strong starts some of the young pitchers have made, could it be that the Giants luck is finally, finally turning around?

Great Start to the Warriors Playoff Run

The Golden State Warriors defeated the San Antonio Spurs in the first game of the playoffs with pace, defense and some hot shooting.  It was a total effort with some stand-out individual performances: Klay Thompson had one of those great shooting games he's capable of, hitting on 11 of 13 shots.  From the start, Kevin Durant was in charge of the offense, made shots and combined with JaVale McGee for others.  Draymond Green made shots as well as led the defense.

Credit Coach Kerr for a surprising starting lineup, with Andre Iguodala at point guard and McGee at center.  Both were outstanding.  Andre was disruptive on defense and McGee was aggressive, scoring a season high 15 and handing the Spurs major scoring threat, LeMarcus Aldridge, on defense, with one spectacular block that led to a Klay three. When the starters play like this, the bench responds with defense and key shots. The Dubs led by 28 at one point.

The Dubs can't expect Thompson to be that hot or McGee that effective every game but the victory was a total package. (KD only had to score 24 for this blowout win.) The Spurs don't seem to have answers for the match-up problems Kerr exposed, so only a reversion to pre-playoff intensity by the Warriors is likely to prevent this being a short series.

The Big Challenge

At the start of the NBA season and well into it, everybody said another championship for the Golden State Warriors was a foregone conclusion.  But nobody is saying that now that the playoffs are about to start.

An almost incredible collection of injuries kept the Warriors from establishing any kind of rhythm, though they did have the possibly important effect of getting more players on the court in various combinations, and the coaches saw it all.

But not even notching 60 wins, and with losses to good, bad and indifferent teams, the Warriors have lost their aura of invincibility.  Everybody ups their game when they play them, but now everyone knows they can be beaten.

 Last year's playoffs the Warriors equaled the great Lakers mark of 16-1.  That's not going to happen this year.  They haven't blown teams out by 30 points in a long time, and so every game is going to be contested deep into it.  They are vulnerable, and the more games they need to play to win each series, the more vulnerable they become.

Steph Curry is all but officially out for at least the first round.  The Dubs now depend on Kevin Durant for leadership.  The style of play on offense is different, and the need for stellar defense is even greater.  For all their talent, the truth is that the Warriors haven't shown their championship selves recently.  Maybe when they beat OKC we got a hint.  But it doesn't seem anybody can have the confidence everyone had at the beginning of the season.  Anybody but the team itself, that is.

Across the bay, the championship hopes of the San Francisco Giants seemed to disappear almost before they got started. Their #1 pitcher Madison Bumgarner got hit on his pitching hand in a tune-up game and will be out until June.  Right now the #2 and #3 pitchers in the rotation are injured, as is their high-priced closer.

But the young pitchers and the new team on the field have produced some exciting baseball, capped with a 14 inning game at home against the Dodgers, in which new Giant Andrew McCutchen collected six hits, including the walk-off homer. One of those memorable games for the people who saw it.

Six hits in a game is very rare, even with extra innings.  The only time I even heard the broadcast of a game where that happened was when Dick Groat did it for the Pirates at Forbes Field in their championship year of 1960, in a nine inning game if I remember correctly.

Happy Birthday, Steph!

On Steph Curry's 30th birthday he and two of the other Warriors All Stars--Klay Thompson and Draymond Green-- were out of the lineup with injuries.  But Golden State beat the surging Lakers anyway.

Happy birthday!

To the Playoffs---and Opening Day

With 15 games to go, the Golden State Warriors officially have a playoff spot.  After losing two games in a row while Steph Curry and four other rotation players were out of the lineup with injuries, it now seems clearer than ever that the Dubs aren't going to make any special efforts to go for the top seed and guaranteed home court throughout the playoffs.

In fact everything team members say as well as the reports coming from unquoted team officials suggests that they've more or less conceded the top spot to Houston, now two games ahead.  The Warriors were actually ahead for a few hours between a Rockets loss and their game in Portland, but with losses there and in Minnesota, they've dropped farther behind than they've been all season.

Instead the priority is to get healthy and rested for the playoffs.  Plus the Portland game showed that the Warriors can't be looking ahead to confronting the Rockets.  They may have a tough series before the western conference finals, if it goes that way.

Next game is in Los Angeles against the Lakers, and the Dubs could take another loss.  The Lakers are surging and confident, and although all the injured Warriors players are expected to be healthy enough, the team may not elect to play them all that soon.  And starters who have taken the brunt while Curry was out may be due for rest.

Meanwhile, the start of MLB is just around the corner.  Some of the SF Giant vets have been making some noise in recent spring training games (Hunter Pence hit a grand slam, Buster Posey a three hit game) and there's still active competition for the center field slot.  A number of old and new pitchers have looked good, with question marks remaining for Johnny Cueuto and Mark Melancon.

It's going to be an exciting start to the season in San Francisco.  With my favorite (now former) Pirate out there in Cutch, I'm stoked.

5 Games In

Just five games past the AS break and neither Golden State nor Houston has lost.  But on Tuesday while the Warriors had trouble putting away the Nets with another inconsistent game, Houston took it to OKC by 10.  The Warriors have won 6 in a row overall; the Rockets have won 16 straight.

The excuses and rationalizations are fading.  Houston has a much easier schedule overall, but they've beaten GS twice and tonight they beat their only other real Western Conference challenger in OKC, without needing the late game heroics they've had for several victories lately.  So there's really no question that Houston is for real, and is probably playing the best basketball in the NBA.

They're still ahead for home court throughout the playoffs, and that remains a big deal, regardless of the rationalizations.  Sure, the Dubs could steal a game in Houston and have theoretical home court advantage, but the seventh game would still be played in Houston.  And that's what's huge.  Any edge either team has could be crucial.  It could come down to the health of role players and bench subs.

There is the possibility that the Rockets do what the Warriors did two seasons ago: have a euphoric regular season run but get worn out in the playoffs.  And all this frustrating pacing themselves the Warriors appear to be doing will pay off.

 But in that season, the Warriors lost their edge towards the end of the regular.  This year Houston is finishing the year with an amazing run.  Their confidence is sky high.  Even their bench players are excelling.

The Houston offense is getting the reputation of being "unstoppable" while the Warriors defense is not up to last year's.  That the Warriors aren't blowing anybody out is not necessarily fatal but don't the habits and the skills have to get established soon?

If everybody stays healthy, and not too much unexpected stuff happens before then, fans are going to love a Golden State-Houston series.  Sports commentators are openly rooting for Houston because this is what they want.  And right now the Rockets have the momentum.

Stretch Run

The NBA stretch run to the playoffs has begun.  With 20 or so regular season games to go, it still looks like Houston v. Golden State.

The Warriors addressed their slow first quarter starts with a lineup change: JaVale McGee starting at center, with Zaza coming off the bench.  In the first two games back, it worked very well: McGee gave the Dubs a starting surge of energy and electricity at the rim.  Hot shooting carried the first game, improved defense the second, leading to a late game eruption of scoring for a 32 point victory over OKC. McGee still has his problems but just a month or so after it looked as if the Dubs were preparing fans for his trade away from the team, he's proven to be a piece of the puzzle.

Still, Houston won their first two back as well, including a close game against Denver.  Winning the close ones is a necessary skill for a contender.  Houston's confidence must be sky high, they're riding the destiny train.  I don't see them losing more than 2 games the rest of this season, even with a tougher schedule than Golden State.  They could win out.

So could the Dubs but more likely they'll lose a couple more.  That would keep the standings static and give Houston home court. In the playoffs OKC is a challenge for both teams, perhaps more for Houston, but a Rockets-Warriors western conference championship series seems as close to inevitable as these things get.  The key for both teams is keeping all their stars healthy, because the team that loses just one will be at a big disadvantage.

Houston is hungry, and the Dubs have the advantage (that is also a disadvantage) of experience.  They seem back on track now but it doesn't take much to become a distraction.  Houston isn't likely to get distracted, at least not until the playoffs.  If everybody's healthy, that series goes seven, which means it's up for grabs.

The East meanwhile continues to be unimpressive.  Boston has faded, Toronto proves vulnerable and after a dominating start with its new lineup, the Cavs look not so great as that.  They lost to a depleted Spurs team on a losing streak.  None of these teams seem capable of taking either the Warriors or the Rockets in a 7 game series.

Things have a way of not working out so neatly, so there's potential drama ahead.  But right now, Houston and Golden State seemed fated to clash for all the marbles.

 

After the Deadline, It's Houston v. Golden State

At the break update: With a close loss in Portland, the Golden State Warriors dropped to second place vs. Houston, in the competition for home court throughout the playoffs.  There are several ways to look at that loss.  On the one hand, on a night when the entire team shot poorly, the Dubs came within a few points of winning anyway, due to a 50 point performance by Kevin Durant.  On the other hand, even the Durant insurance policy wasn't enough to offset subpar performances by the other stars and the bench.  Is there a problem in team dynamics?  That possibility can no longer be ignored.

Meanwhile Houston looks invincible, as do the reborn Cavs.  The championship is really not a foregone conclusion, the playoffs aren't going to be as smooth as last year, and if there are weaknesses they need to be identified before it's too late.

As the fallout from trades and signings around the NBA trade deadline continue, some conclusions can already be drawn.  For the Golden State Warriors, they mostly reinforce what's become evident over the past month.

The wholesale changes in the Cleveland Cavs lineup suggest the team may yet get into the playoffs and make some noise.  But until the new Cavs can prove otherwise, the Celtics remain the only (remote) challenge to the Warriors in a finals series.

The Warriors are very likely to get their major challenge from Houston in the Western Conference playoffs.  With the addition of another big man, Houston added to its formidable scoring machine.  Houston is performing better than the Dubs right now, and they look likely to first of all challenge for home court throughout the playoffs.  They appear to be the only team in the NBA that can hang with the Dubs for a seven game series, although when the Warriors aren't playing well (not enough defense, too many turnovers), they are vulnerable to teams like OKC and Boston.

The Warriors have made zero moves so far.  Neither did the Spurs, and they are fading.  So the season and the playoffs are shaping up to be Houston v. Golden State.

Not So Fast

It's not the All-Star Game break yet, and some are declaring the NBA season over, with the Golden State Warriors as playoff champs.  An article in Slate declares: "Sure, someone else could win this year’s championship. It’s also possible the sun could take tomorrow off and we could wake up to find the forest moon of Endor hanging in the sky."

But a couple of games this past week suggest, not so fast.  Right now the Warriors are champions of the regular season.  Other teams have slumps.  The Warriors rarely lose even two games in a row.  The Warriors slump at times during games, which could become a fatal habit in the playoffs.  But their depth protects them in the regular season.

But the playoffs are about match-ups.  And this week's game with Houston showed that when its three stars are playing, that team can beat the Warriors, as they did in that game.  Only a playoff series itself can say at this point whether they've got enough to win four out of seven.  And with the star of the team that presents Houston with matchup problems--the Pelicans--down for the season, it seems pretty likely that they will survive the playoffs long enough to meet the Warriors in the western conference finals.

If the Dubs win that series and either Cleveland or Toronto wins the east, then it could be time to say the Warriors will be champs.  Neither of those teams can beat the Dubs in multiple games.  But if Boston wins the east, then it gets more interesting, and there will be a real Finals series.  The Dubs have problems with them, as evidenced by Saturday's game, when the Warriors won by just 5 points at home, due to a 49 point outburst by Steph Curry. The problem for the Celtics is getting there.  For awhile now they've haven't been able to beat anyone else.

But even beyond all this, the playoffs depend on which star players are healthy and which are not.  That can't be predicted this far in advance.  The quality of team play and their physical and mental condition at the end of the season are also determinative and unpredictable.  The second half of the season means something, and anyway, it's a long time till May and June.

Corners Set for the Giants, Dubs Wait for Cavs Moves

It's official in San Francisco.  Andrew McCutchen is slated to play right field for the Giants, while Hunter Pence moves to left.  Both players said they were with the program, which has several advantages.  Both Cutch in center for the Pirates and Pence in right for the Giants had sub-par defensive years the last year or two.  Cutch is definitely faster and covers more ground than Pence, so he's a good fit for right.  Pence still has a rocket arm, so playing left is an upgrade for the defense.

With lesser defensive ground to cover, both players may see the offensive upside, in hitting but also base-running.  Cutch is always a threat to run and to take the extra base.  It should be a more dynamic situation out there.

With their outfield corners set, Evan Longoria, their other big acquisition, will start at third, the hot corner of the infield. That makes a potentially solid infield, though whether it can return to the chemistry it had with Matt Duffy at third remains to be seen.

This of course leaves center field as the big question mark.  The Giants are open about wanting to deal for an established center fielder, opting for defense over offense if necessary.  Currently the speedy journeyman Jarrod Dyson is the favorite, since the Giants dropped out of bidding for the Royals' Lorenzo Cain. Cain's free agent price has reportedly been dropping though, so that could change. Failing a deal, they have a few speedsters in their farm system to examine.

 The club also says it's on the lookout for relief pitchers but didn't sound hopeful.  This remains a conspicuous vulnerability.  Their closer, Mark Melancon, another former Pirate, is reportedly healthy after a year of injury and bad results.

Meanwhile, the two teams who've met in the NBA finals for the past three years and are expected to again, are looking at the February trade deadline in totally opposite ways.  The Warriors are pretty much uninterested.  The Cavs are desperate.

News is flying about the Cavs many interests--notably in a couple of Clippers (a team that lost 11 games in a row to the Dubs)--and it appears that nobody but LeBron (and a few of his close friends) is off the trade table.  The urgency increased after the Cavs lost to the Dubs again, at home, by ten.

Meanwhile the Warriors keep winning through injuries to their stars and supporting cast.  The injuries have had an up side in that more players on the roster have gotten playing time and Coach Kerr has been able to experiment with different combinations of players in game conditions.

Whatever combinations of stars played, they tended to dominate.  Klay Thompson is still capable of breakout scoring games, Kevin Durant takes over games and ran the offense in Curry's absense, and very quietly perhaps, Steph Curry is leading the league in scoring efficiency, with a higher shooting percentage than in his unanimous MVP year.

As for new talent, well, the Warriors are watching yet another young talent in Chris Boucher--playing in their first G-league game after recovering from a serious injury, which is how the Dubs got him for almost nothing.  They are quite simply loaded.  That doesn't mean they won't surprise with a deal before deadline, if opportunity knocks.  But they really don't have to.  The overheated media rumor mills suggest the Cavs aren't being shy about their belief that they really really do.

Money Ball

As if the Steelers  playoff loss weren't bad enough, along with the very cold winter and snow, Pittsburgh now has to endure the dismantling of the Pittsburgh Pirates (again.)  What a holiday weekend: The Pirates lost their best pitcher on Saturday, the Steelers were eliminated on Sunday, and on Monday it was announced that Andrew McCutchen, perhaps their most beloved Pirates player since Willie Stargell, was traded to the San Francisco Giants.

The Giants and the Pirates are both coming off bad years (two years for the Bucs, a year and a half for the Giants), after some very good ones.   MVP and All-Star McCutchen was the anchor of the Pirates' good years, the personification of Pittsburgh that for awhile lifted the Pirates over the Steelers in hometown popularity.  Though they got close they never won even a division championship, but they ended decades of losing seasons with nameless and faceless revolving door lineups, ever since Barry Bonds was sent to San Francisco.

The Giants had bigger success and little competition for fan affection.  The team that barely avoided losing 100 games last season had many of the players that won at least one championship, and especially that had the best record in baseball for the first half of 2016.  But that's not necessarily the reason the two teams have responded to a bad year in the opposite way, more than symbolized by this trade.

Pittsburgh has clearly opted for rebuilding with young talent while San Francisco is keeping its star (and high priced) core while adding experienced players with stardom at least in their recent past.  So while the Pirates are essentially conceding at least next season, the Giants are all in, though there are plenty of skeptics who just don't see it happening.

But it's more a Giants' bet that their core needed a few better pieces and better luck and health to get to the playoffs.  It's that the Giants can afford to place this particular bet, but the Pirates cannot.

The Giants play in one of the most affluent cities and regions in the country.  People with money are among their active fans.  The team organization is well connected. Except for the American League A's playing across the Bay, their market extends hundreds of miles in all directions.  They can afford to put some big names out there and keep trying to win big, while it's not clear they can as easily afford to lose status and fans by rebuilding.

The Pirates are in a vibrant city but less affluent part of the country.  They are the definition of a small market team--hemmed in by Cleveland (an hour's drive away) and Cinncy to the west, the Phillies etc. to the East.  While they won the hearts of Pittsburgh area sports fans again, they're still at least second and probably third in affluent fans and connections to the Steelers and perhaps the Penguins.

I recall a general manager of the Pirates explaining this situation to me just one season after their last World Championship in 1979.  Then in the 90s when the Bonds, Bonilla and Van Slyke teams kept winning divisions but couldn't quite get beyond that, and the big contracts were up, the Pirates dismantled that team.  It took until this current decade of the 21st century for them to be competitive again.

Ironically (or Iron City-ically) they were able to keep a very good team going this time because Andrew McCutchen really wanted to play in Pittsburgh and didn't demand the money that his MVP status earned.  Now he's coming to San Francisco, with a year left on his bargain contract and perhaps on the downward curve of his career.  Or, at 31, perhaps not.

So far he's slated for centerfield but stories today suggest the Giants would like to play him at one of the corners.  There was concern in Pittsburgh over his defense last year in center.  Iron City-ically again, when I saw the Pirates defeat the Giants last season in San Francisco, it was McCutchen's great late inning catch in center with men on base that preserved the win.

 Assuming he takes to the city, Cutch should be an asset on and off the field--and eventually a fan favorite.  Whether the new bats have a good year in new surroundings will be one factor.  But it seems as if the weakness of the bullpen, so fatal so many times in late innings last year, has not yet been addressed.

As for the Pirates, it may be back to the pre-Cutch Bucs for the fans, enjoying a great ball park and those Primanti sandwiches.

Steelers Bitter End

The defeat suffered by the Pittsburgh Steelers in their playoff game against Jacksonville is the kind that shakes a franchise.

The numbers-addled experts predicted a low scoring game, since the stats showed the Jags gave up few points but also scored few. Then the Pittsburgh offense scorched that defense for 42 points, the highest point total achieved by the Steelers in  a single game this season.  But that weak Jags offense scored 45 points against a team that historically defines itself by defense.

That defensive failure added to what some observers saw as poor coaching decisions, which Steelers fans will undoubtedly be screaming about for months.  The absence of the captain of the defense, the injured Ryan Shazier, was keenly felt.  But that's unlikely to be seen as the whole problem.  There could well be some coaching changes coming, perhaps including at the very top.  The window for this current team core to make it to the Super Bowl can close fast.

The Golden State Warriors have had an odd month.  Steph Curry came back and tore up the league, as Kevin Durant, who led the team to a superior record in his absence, went down.  Durant came back, and Curry went down again.  Without Curry or the resting Klay Thompson, the Dubs lost to a Clippers team of mostly rookies.  Then with both Durant and Curry in the lineup as well as Thompson, the Warriors had their highest point total for a first half all year against Toronto, before fading so seriously in the second half (in the second game of a back to back on the road) that they totally lost a 27 point lead and nearly lost the game.

Moreover, the Dubs are losing their games at home, where they've usually been unbeatable, and continuing a long winning streak on the road.  It's all been weird but most of the time, highly entertaining.

Stephing Up

Steph Curry missed nearly the last calendar month of 2017.  In the 11 games he didn't play due to his ankle injury the Warriors were 9-2. That included winning games in which only two regular starters actually started, due to other injuries. So they continued to look like a championship team, and some began to wonder if Kevin Durant wasn't really the true leader and best player on Golden State.

Then Steph came back.  He scored 38 points on limited minutes, including 10 three pointers, the most any single player has hit in a game this NBA season.  His moves to the basket were equally dazzling, he pushed the pace, got opportunities for others as the Dubs distributed, assisted and cut down turnovers. The Warriors scored 141 points, easily outdistancing any single game in the past month without him.  He played with enthusiasm and fire. The energy on the court and in the Golden State stands was electric.

In one game, Curry proved he is the heart and soul of the Warriors, their most valuable player, and at least in terms of how he transforms the game, the MVP of the NBA.

December Update: Steelers Challenge, Dubs Rule

On Sunday night the Pittsburgh Steelers once again came from behind and for the third straight game won on a field goal with under a minute to play (the previous two were last-second walkoffs.) This victory gave them the AFC championship.  But their defense, particularly defensive secondary, was criticized as weak.

On Monday night the New England Patriots fell to Miami because of what was described as a  chaotic offense.  The two teams meet on Sunday to decide the division champion who gets home field in the playoffs.  It's very likely they will face each other again in those playoffs.

In the past weekend's games, the Steelers felt the absence of injured defensive captain Ryan Shazier.  The Patriots missed tight end Gronkowski.  The difference this coming weekend is that Gronk will be back, but Shazier will not.  His injury suffered in a particularly brutal game against the Bengals is so severe that he may not play ever again.  And yes, I'm feeling very guilty for continuing to follow football because so little has been done to prevent all these devastating injuries.  But I feel its days are numbered and besides there's so much else I'm trying to avoid following in the news.

Tom Brady is unlikely to have two bad games in a row, and with Gronk back and the Steelers struggling to put up enough points to overcome their defensive lapses, the Patriots have the edge.  There were very good signs for the Steelers in the Ravens game Sunday, especially long pass routes (and the offensive line providing the time), which together with past victories indicates that they can win with various combinations of run, short pass and long pass offenses.  So they can't be counted out by any means.

Meanwhile in the NBA the Dubs have undergone an array of injuries in which one or two principal players have been out in one game, with a couple of elite reserves unavailable.  They've still won.  They completed a 6-0 road trip for the first time in team history.  They beat Portland at home without Steph and Green.  Top to bottom, the Warriors appear to have an historically great team.

Meanwhile, Cleveland got over its early season confusion and won 13 in a row, while LeBron is having a reportedly banner year.  OKC played its best game to beat the Dubs at home and immediately went on a losing streak afterwards.  The Clippers have collapsed, Boston has cooled only slightly, Houston continues to make noise and San Antonio once again very quietly wins games.

So at this point the East looks like a battle between Cleveland and Boston.  It still does not appear that any team in the West can win a 7 game series against the Warriors, even if they are not at full strength.  But several can give them problems.  It remains to be seen if OKC is a match-up problem, or whether they had extraordinary performances plus friendly calls and non-calls at home.

The big MLB news is Guancarlo Stanton going to the Yankees, who are once again building a superteam based on power.  There's the whiff of the Mantle/Maris years, which fascinated me when I was first getting interested in the game.  The San Francisco Giants were the first team Stanton talked to but he passed.  Judging from his comments on the Yankees' winning attitude, I suspect he passed on the Giants because he doesn't believe they're going to be contenders again for awhile.  Certainly the Yankees, who went deep in the playoffs, are a better bet for next year.

Big Tests on Thursday (with Update)

NBA teams have to wonder.  The Golden State Warriors are not only on a winning streak, and winning by an average of more than 15 points per game, but for one recent victory the team was without Kevin Durant, and without Steph Curry for another.  The pattern was the same: the opponent played their best for two quarters, the Warriors zapped past them for a big lead in the third quarter, and an entertaining combination of veterans and new players kept most of the margin through the fourth.

The only team in the NBA with a better record is the surprising Boston Celtics.  Kyrie Irving looks like this year's Durant in terms of not only the team he left but the team he went to.  That is, pretty damn smart.  As Steve Kerr said, maybe this year but in any case pretty soon, Boston is going to be the top team in the East.

On Thursday the Warriors and Celtics meet for the first time this year, and it will be a fascinating test for both teams.

Another game to be played Thursday should also be a test that may suggest the rest of the season in the NFL.  The Pittsburgh Steelers have been winning, but all facets of their game haven't come together in a single contest.  Thursday they play the Tenn Titans.  It's a short week since they barely beat a much inferior Indianapolis team, and exposed their latest weaknesses, in the defensive secondary and in completing long passes on offense.

Unless the Steelers defense is utterly stifling, they may have to actually score multiple touchdowns in order to match the Titans.  If Pittsburgh (or the Titans) expect to go deep into the playoffs this year, this game may tell the tale.

Update After the Games:

No question now that the Celtics are for real, as they squeezed out a dramatic 92-88 victory over the Warriors.  Poor shooting (the lowest point total ever when the big four all play), stellar defense by Boston, an off night for Steph Curry after his game off for injury and some very friendly calls and no-calls for Boston in Boston, and that was the game.  Most important to Boston was their ability to come back from 17 point deficits not once but twice with runs.  They blocked shots that the Warriors aren't used to seeing.  Too bad the game was technically won on a bad call.  Promising for the Warriors: the Celtics have no answer for Kevin Durant.

Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Steelers began to answer doubts with an offensive explosion primarily through the air, as they topped 30 points for the first time this season with their 40-17 victory over the Titans.  Antonio Brown was the star, and Big Ben was his most impressive.  But despite that bundle of points, the Steelers still suffered from an uncertain offense at times.  Though they exploited Titans weaknesses in their defensive secondary, whether the Steelers can play with the best teams is still to be tested.  But they are in good position for the playoffs.

Early Season NBA with the Warriors etc.

After a sloggy start the Golden State Warriors rose to the occasion for big victories over the Clippers and the Spurs, as October became November.  There seemed to be fatigue from the long season and more particularly the trip to China, but the Warriors faced teams not only upping their game to play them, but playing their game.

Team after team changed their characteristic play to assault the Warriors with speed, passing, three pointers and floaters.  Some of the younger teams have the energy though not quite the skill, and the older teams have the skills but not the speed, but still, it must be weird seeing your game mirrored by the other team.

Also of note this essay on the new Golden Age for the NBA.  Interesting in contrast to the NFL.  Over there, the Pittsburgh Steelers have steadied their offensive game--eating up yards and possession time--while sharpening their defense.  Still not scoring touchdowns which could hurt them, and there's the week to week question of whether Big Ben's heart is in the game much anymore.

Don't know what New England is thinking, placing their season and near future entirely on Tom Brady not getting hurt and maintaining his play in his 40s.

Meanwhile in MLB, the SF Giants are hiring new coaches more into analytics, the effectiveness of which remains to be seen, but it certainly doesn't add much to the romance of the game that carried baseball for so many decades.  Now that the Dodgers are likely to be in the market for an elite starting pitcher after they fell one shy in the World Series, it's going to be tempting for the Giants to give one up to get that elusive power hitter.  But let's face it, the Giants need more than one new power hitter.  And they probably need more starting pitching, not less.

October Can't Come Fast Enough (with Postscript)

Postscript Oct.1: It's finally over.  The last two SF Giants games summed up the season.  Matt Cain made his last start before retiring Saturday, pitching a 3 hit shutout for 5 innings, going into the 9th with the victory, but the closer lost it, aided by a throwing error by the usually spectacular Brandon Crawford.  Then Sunday the Giants couldn't really hit a pitcher who was more or less trying out for a starting job, but ended up winning on a walk-off home run in the 9th--by Pablo Sandoval.  It was the depressingly, maddeningly repeated futility of this season, with the wistful echo of winning days past. Sunday after the game, the team celebrated Cain's 33rd birthday, and probably knew they were celebrating the end of an era.  It's likely that Matt Cain won't be the only one who played in these two games who won't be back in a Giants uniform next year.  I didn't see attendance figures for Sunday, but Saturday's game was not a sell out.

San Francisco Giants fans used to look forward to October for the playoffs and winning the World Series.  Now we just can't wait for this horrific season to end, and look forward to October for Warriors basketball.

The only suspense left for the Giants is whether they lose 100 games and/or whether they get the top draft choice because they finish with the worst record in MLB.  Then comes the long winter of discontent, as priorities are set and new players are pursued.  Right now the rookies getting some playing time must be swinging for the fences every time, as the power hitter priority is at the top.

The season of futility is symbolized by the return of Pablo Sandoval, who had a good start and then went into an epic hitting slump.  Only injuries to others have kept him in the lineup.  But SF will always remember the players who contributed to three championships and provided plenty of joy and thrills at the ball park.  Some are unlikely to be back, along with players who've joined since.

Meanwhile in the NBA, the musical chairs of big stars clustering in a few teams to compete with the Warriors will climax with the reported move of D. Wade to Cleveland.  Until this move, it seems Cleveland was going to have its hands full just winning the relatively anemic East.  But unlike K.D. coming to Golden State, several of these moves are by players who are probably past their prime, and that includes Wade and the other Cavs acquisition, Isaiah Thomas.

But these moves, including those by the Thunder and Houston, will likely make for more competitive basketball this season than seemed likely when last season ended.

The injection of politics into sports, especially by the lunatic tweets and speeches by our racist demagogue in chief, puts a different spin on the season, especially as Steph Curry and the Warriors were two of his specific targets.  Fortunately Curry is a class act and coach Steve Kerr a highly articulate and thoughtful class act.  I like being a Warriors fan.

And props from a Warriors fan to LeBron for his now famous tweet and his forthright stand.

Return of the Panda

The trade deadline came and went without much impact on the San Francisco Giants roster, surprising many professional observers. Third baseman Eduardo Nunez was the only notable to go, and the young players received in the trade were not immediately on the roster.

But soon there was a surprising new addition, especially in that he was the prodigal returned: After being picked up on waivers and sent to a couple of minor league teams for prep, Pablo Sandoval was back at third base.

Nobody expects the Giants to do anything much this year, but any hope that can be generated would be welcome.  The Panda not only perked things up at the ball park, he seemed to boost morale in the club house and generate some play more consistent with the Giants when he was a vital member of championship teams.

In particular he seemed to perk up Hunter Pence who started hitting, and hitting for power.  The two of them were really the hitting sparkplugs of the 2014 playoffs and World Series.

Meanwhile the Giants keep trying new players and different combinations, partly because more guys keep getting injured (Joe Panik most recently) as others heal up.  Positives have been the return of Parker in left field, the starting pitching of Ty Blach and Sam Dyson's work as a closer.  And my guy Kelby Tomlinson continues to be invaluable.  The Giants started winning some games.

Meanwhile, Pablo penned an emotional essay about coming home to San Francisco.  There's no guarantee he'll be back next season, but his effect on the team will have to be part of that decision.

Right now the Giants are finishing a series with the Marlins, the team I saw them play in San Francisco.  Giancarlo Stanton homered in the first two games, extending his consecutive game streak and continuing his power surge.  Someday I'll probably need to say that I saw him play, although I didn't actually see either of the two homers he hit in the July game.  I was ducking out of the sun and saw the first one on a stadium TV, and when he hit the second I was already on the train.  But if he really breaks a record this year, I can always lie.  Who will know?

The Baffling Giants, From the Stands

I saw the San Francisco Giants host the Marlins last Sunday, the final game before the All-Star break. Exactly a year before, the Giants had the best record in MLB. Many of the players on the field last Sunday were on that team. But if the Bay Area sports media is right, that may no longer be true even a month from now.

 Except for the unsurprisingly bad Phillies, the Giants ended the first half with the worst record in baseball, and have just lost a series in San Diego (due in part to 2 homers by their former backup catcher Hector Sanchez), where the Padres are almost as woeful.

 This is the worst Giants record in a generation, and it's baffled everyone. It's a proven team of highly skilled players just a year past predominance. Yet that year has been an ongoing disaster. And now a lot of people are expecting a lot of trades, and maybe for the first time are willing for them to happen.

 I tried to discern some difference at AT&T Park. I maybe didn't see the same intensity from Johnny Cueto on the mound, but that may not be valid. (He's now on the disabled list.) Otherwise, nothing I could be sure of. Maybe there wasn't the same electric buzz in the stands as there had been at some previous games, but the park was full on a clear warm afternoon, with a bright hot sun. Maybe the scoreboard emphasized past glories a lot, and they got the biggest cheers. As usual there were a lot of fans wearing Giants gear, including players shirts--often players of the past.

 But it wasn't a bad game. The Giants took the early lead on a titanic 2 run homer to the deepest part of the yard in right center by Brandon Crawford. The Marlins immediately tied it, then went ahead on a Giancarlo Stanton homer on a pitch that Cueto grooved. Then sub catcher Hundley homered right back to tie the score again.

 But over the past year, Giants fans have come to expect the bullpen cave, and it came when the Marlins scored 4 runs in the 7th. At 7-3, the script for the past year says the game is about over. But not this time.

 The Giants got a run back in the 7th and then staged a very exciting rally in the 8th, tying the game. Buster Posey (the lone Giants All-Star) got an ovation as a pinch-hitter but he inexplicably swung on an 3-0 pitch and grounded out without bringing in a run. Still, after Gomez two strike pinch hit single, the lead run was on third with one out. But one of the younger players--don't remember which--couldn't get a long sacrifice. With 2 out Denard Span smacked a deep ball to right that just got caught. A game of inches--if the ball had gone over the fielder's head, it would likely have scored two-- and how the dice falls, because one batter earlier and Span's ball would have easily scored the lead run, even if caught.

 A game also of instant heroics and instant humiliation. With the score still tied in the 13th, Brandon Crawford--who had a homer and run-scoring hit in the 8th inning rally for three RBIs, plus several clutch fielding plays and throws to first--scooped up a tough grounder and threw hard over Belt's head at first base for a two-base error. A couple of batters later, Kontos gave up a two run homer. By the time Stanton had homered again as well, and Kelby Tomlinson tripled in the bottom of the inning but the Giants could manage only one run for a 10-8 loss--we were on our way to, and sitting in, the train. In prior years, the chances of coming back again in the bottom of the 13th would be excellent enough to stay. This year, not so much.  (I do regret not seeing the Tomlinson triple.  He's a personal favorite.)

 As for the experience, I saw Matt Cain pitch in relief, and Ichiro pinch hit. I had the most expensive mocha I've ever purchased. I don't know how to compare this to previous years because I mostly kept to my seat before, but on this day there seemed an awful lot of people walking around and watching the boats in the marina. Maybe they were escaping the sun as I was. The people were a big part of the show. It will take a lot before people stop coming, I'm sure. It's such a San Francisco experience now--a very diverse crowd, all together here in Giants gear.

 But it may not be long before the players they see are different. (And in fact, we heard somebody yell "Trade 'em all!") Posey, Crawford, Bumgarner will remain the core. They've already broken up that perfect infield of Duffy, Crawford, Panik and Belt, and at least one of those left could go soon, as well as players added later. As for outfielders, though Hunter Pence is enormously popular, Span is probably more likely to be kept. But that's just guessing.

 Still, expectations that it will all change in a month aren't realistic. The starting pitching rotation was carefully crafted and looked so formidable before the season, and it is in shambles. Unfortunately you can't pick up a quality pitching staff in a month. The bullpen is so dispirited that nobody is completely safe. But contracts etc. enter in, and that's a level beyond my interest.

 I can see why people enjoy looking back, not only because those were championship teams--and pretty lucky teams at times--but several were definable teams. The team that played most of the first half of last season was a real team. But despite the familiar players, there's less sense of that now. Partly due to another season of injuries, but also to this baffling inability to win, players have been coming through, lineups and roles juggled. Things are likely to get even less stable before they settle, which will be when they jell. And become a team, a winning team, again.

Postscript: On Monday (July 17) the Giants' streak of consecutive home game sellouts ended at 530 games.  SF holds the record for the National League, and it is the second-longest streak in MLB to the Boston Red Sox 794.

Dubs Progress and Giants Revival

It's only been a few weeks since the victory parade but already prospects for the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors looks awfully good.  The Dubs have awarded a huge new contract to Steph Curry for five years, and are about to sign Andre Iguodala for three.  Also back on board are Shaun Livingston and David West.  Everyone expects that Kevin Durant will now re-sign, since he was willing to take less for next year in order to keep Iguodala.

Already under contract are Draymond, Klay Thompson, Patrick McCaw and Jordan Bell.

Jordan Bell was a surprise steal when the Dubs bought a draft pick from the Bulls. The Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, he is said to have Draymond potential with the size of KD.

Plus the Warriors got Bell's Oregon Ducks teammate Chris Boucher as an undrafted free agent.  Hobbled by a serious injury until October, his upside potential is considerable.  

Meanwhile, several western conference rivals have strengthened themselves so far--notably Houston and Minnesota--but notably the Cavs have not.

While we weren't looking, the San Francisco Giants have gone on a five game winning streak, notching blowouts and today's 11th inning win on the road in Pittsburgh.  The injuries continue, but trades and call-ups are rotating new players all over the field as well as in the bullpen.

I may get a look at them next weekend when they return to San Francisco to play three games with the Marlins.

NBA Awards and Steph Props

Congratulations to Draymond Green for winning the Defensive Player of the Year Award, to Warriors GM Bob Myers for winning Exec of the Year and to Klay Thompson for the fan's award of Performance of the Year, all announced at the NBA awards.

With Kevin Durant winning the Finals MVP and often touted as the best player on the Warriors (perhaps the best or second best in the NBA), last year's unanimous league MVP seems obscured if not forgotten.

But the fan award of Assist of the Year to Steph Curry suggests his visible contributions to the Warriors championship season.  Let's not forget that when KD went down with what was feared to be a season-ending injury, Steph Curry led the Warriors on an epic winning streak that provided the confidence to go into the playoffs without fear.

And while KD got the attention and made key plays, Curry in every game made vital contributions in whatever ways were most needed.  In the Finals especially he may not have dazzled with so many of the 3s he had displayed throughout the season and in the early rounds, but he rebounded, he passed, he drove to the basket.  Maybe the Warriors wouldn't have won the championship without KD, and maybe they would have.  But they would not have won it without Steph Curry.

That's as much for his contributions that weren't visible on the TV screen.  Steve Kerr called him the heart and soul of the team, the one player who defines who the Warriors are.  The Warriors wouldn't be who they are without Draymond and Klay, and KD has become part of that dynamic.  This Ramona Shelburne piece at ESPN says it all eloquently.  At the center of it all is Steph Curry.

If the basketball world has been looking elsewhere, Warriors fans have not.  Steph Curry is clearly the most popular player, the one people want to watch.  They got more game to watch this year, as the video above suggests.

But basketball is over, and unfortunately there's only baseball.  It's hard to believe that the San Francisco Giants are basically the same team that had the best record in baseball going into the All-Star break last year.  This year they may yet have the worst, though the Phillies are again making that particular run.

This has to be the earliest in decades that the Giants have been out of playoff contention.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are having a down year but they've still got a shot, thanks in part to the even more epic collapse of the Cardinals and the rough start of the Cubs.

"You're Home, Baby"

The Golden State Warriors defeated the Cavs 129-120 in the fifth game of the NBA Finals to claim the 2017 Championship.  It was a storybook win for this team because every player played well and several played brilliantly.  It was Strength in Numbers triumphant.  After winning in 2015 and losing the seven game series last year, Steph Curry could touch the championship trophy and tell it, "you're home, baby."

Kevin Durant won the Finals MVP but in this revealing postgame press conference he noted the big contributions made by Steph Curry, who some observers claimed on the basis of numbers was the real most valuable player.  (And in fact, after KD got a huge ovation from the home crowd as he held up his trophy, when Steph was introduced the crowd chanted MVP--which technically he could still win for the season, though it's unlikely.)

KD had 39 points, bolstered by some audacious threes and jump shots.  The Cavs harassed Curry all game again and he wasn't hitting 3s but with drive after drive to the basket, he scored 34.  Andre Iguodala played longer off the bench as part of the Hampton Five smaller lineup and again came up big defensively while scoring 20 points.

Klay Thompson's defense paid off again and he had his 3 stroke going.  Draymond Green kept his cool, made plays and hit his open 3s.  Both veteran David West (who finally won his first championship) and rookie Patrick McCaw had key buckets and made plays.

All this was necessary because the Cavs got not only lots of scoring from LeBron and Kyrie but J.R. Smith hit seven 3s.  The Cavs won the first quarter but the Warriors went on major runs in the second and fourth quarters to keep control.  They led by as many as 17 points.

All the talk about the Warriors being the most hated team evaporated during these playoffs.  This is the team of unselfishness, of playing with joy, and of friendship.  The good guys won.  Congratulations to the Golden State Warriors, 2017 NBA champions.

Pre-Game Five

The Cavs hit a record number of threes, benefited from dubious officiating ( hitting their foul shots while the Warriors didn't) and got away with muscling the Warriors to take the fourth game of the NBA Finals.

But nobody was harder on the Warriors effort than Coach Kerr on Sunday, especially on defense.  It was acknowledged by everyone that the Cavs were the more aggressive team.

Now the Warriors come home, playing another close-out game on Monday.  The fifth game is the most crucial game of any series, as the winner of it almost always wins the series.  It is the Warriors best chance to win the championship.

What adjustments do they need to make?  Most observers note that they scored well enough to win most games, but in addition to the Cavs super-hot shooting, their defense was inhibited by foul trouble.  They lost the first quarter badly but stayed pretty even the rest of the way.

It seems the fatigue factor hit the Warriors more, against the desperation energy of the Cavs, which continued by playing ahead and in some sort of zone.  Now the energy edge should go back to the Warriors at home.

One observer suggested that Steph Curry didn't have the ball in his hands enough as playmaker, and given the Cavs muscling him off the ball, it threw him off his rhythm.  So running the offense through Curry more seems like a good idea.

What is there to worry about?  Defending threes but not giving up layups as a consequence.  I'm not sure I liked Steph's statement after the fourth game that the first six minutes are crucial, and without them it takes a near miracle to win. It forecasts the strategy, and if the Dubs don't have a great first six minutes then the doubts creep in?

Draymond has been a little too vocal between games for my tastes.  Everyone knows the Cavs love to bait him, and he seems to be cooperating.  He needs to play a cool game for the first three quarters, and take over the fourth defensively if necessary.

The Cavs opened the fourth game with desperate energy and got the breaks they needed--they got calls, the Warriors were a step behind, and they hit shots at a phenomenal rate.  They fed off that overwhelming start, and even though the Warriors had gotten back within 7 points in the second quarter, the Cavs kept hitting key shots while the Dubs did not, to keep the Cavs at a safe distance.  It's hard to see this happening again.

The Warriors have to play with composure as well as joy, for the Cavs will do their worst to frustrate them and beat them up.  However it's hard to believe that the officiating will be as bad either.  The Warriors have to be the overwhelming favorite to win the championship tonight.

Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Penguins, winner of the Stanley Cup NHL championship with a 2-0 win on Sunday in the sixth game.  (They won the fifth game 6-0.)  The Penguins are the first NHL team since 1998 to win two straight championships.

Pre-Game Four

Even apart from being down three games to none, the Cavs are in a tight spot for the fourth game.  LeBron James played major minutes again in the third game, with an aggressive first half going to the hoop and shooting threes.  But he ceded the third to Kyrie and was pretty obviously gassed in the crucial fourth.  Now he's facing a closeout game for Golden State two days later, the least amount of rest in the playoffs.

That James and Kyrie carried the scoring meant other players were less involved, and that also came back to haunt them in the fourth quarter.  So the logical strategy for the next game is for James to get everybody involved early, and save more of himself for the fourth quarter.

But in that third game, without his first half scoring, the game would probably not have been close in the fourth.  So what is the strategy?  Down 3-0, the Cavs might start thinking about the long term, about keeping LeBron healthy and not using him up, even with the long off-season ahead.  But LeBron himself is likely to be especially competitive about not being swept.

So will we see LeBron come out scoring, or distributing? Maybe distributing to start.  Obviously how the game is going will be a major factor.  If the Warriors do what they've done in previous close-out games this year--get a big lead right away--then chances are LeBron will get more rest in this game.

On the Warriors side, all the talk has been about KD and Steph.  Some see them as potential co-MVPs though most observers tip the balance to Durant.  But the fourth game could see two other heroes: Draymond Green and Klay Thompson.  Green has been trying to be careful, although he's been in foul trouble anyway.  He might be more obviously active Friday, and put up big numbers.

As for Thompson, I was impressed that in his postgame interview on Wednesday he kept talking about Friday, what they needed to do on Friday.  He was (in the phrase they all use) "locked in."  Only Curry ventured to evaluate Wednesday's game historically.  So given Thompson's breakout from his shooting slump, he may have one of his monster games on Friday.  If the Warriors don't suffer a letdown, it's hard to see how the Cavs win a game, if they couldn't win Wednesday.

Warriors Tough It Out

Finishing with an 11-0 run to win the third game of the NBA Finals, the Golden State Warriors showed the one element some observers questioned: their toughness.  It was the Cleveland Cavs who arguably panicked as their lead slipped away in the final minutes.

The Warriors took the early punch they expected in the Cavs first home game, and countered it with a record number of threes in the first quarter.  They led at the end of the first quarter and the half.  Their signature third quarter didn't happen however, and the Cavs seized the momentum, when Kyrie Irving took over the scoring at the basket from LeBron.  But they both played heavy minutes and couldn't withstand the cool composure and determination of Curry and especially Kevin Durant in the final minutes.  The final score was 118-113.

Klay Thompson continued his return to shooting form with 18 points in just the first quarter.  His defense in those crucial last minutes, particularly on Kyrie's last possession, was outstanding.

Evidently the Cavs game plan was to neutralize Draymond Green, and he did get in early foul trouble.  Though always important on both ends, Green hasn't had a breakout game--yet.

The fourth game is Friday, when the Warriors could sweep and become the first NBA team in history to go 16-0 in the postseason.

Pre-Game Jitters

The third game of the NBA Finals in Cleveland will begin soon.  For the past few days the sports media chatter has been almost universally about Warriors dominance.  That may be so in the series, but it doesn't guarantee a win in this game.

In terms of the physical benefits of rest, the home team has a decided advantage in the first two games, especially in a time-zone spanning series like this one.  The Cavs crossed from the eastern to the western zone, with whatever effects that may have on sleep and sheer physical energy, presence and groundedness.  The Warriors hadn't gone anywhere in a couple of weeks.  They were totally there.

So we've seen only games in which the Cavs were at the biggest physical disadvantage in terms of time zones of the series. That advantage doesn't repeat to the same extent as the series goes on.  The Cavs will have some but a smaller advantage in their home time zone, but they've had to adjust as well as the Warriors.  The games are at about the same relative time, (5 or 6 p.m. West Coast time) so theoretically both teams now don't have to adjust as much.  But small differences in energy levels, in the ability to maintain focus, can have large consequences.

This is apart from the other aspects of home court advantage, such as familiarity with the space and especially the home crowd.

So how do the Cavs win this one?  If the Dubs come out shooting threes and don't make them, and especially if at some point in the game, the Cavs start hitting threes in droves.  Both things have happened before with these two teams.

The Cavs didn't shoot especially well in Oakland, and still managed to be competitive for most of the second game.  The Warriors went from only four turnovers in the first game, to 20 in the second.  As Steve Kerr said, they'll be hard pressed to win in Cleveland with that many turnovers.

So missed threes and turnovers that help to energize the Cavs with easy baskets early, followed by a rain of Cav threes.  Those are the obvious routes.  But of course every game is only itself: players in foul trouble and above all injuries can change the game, and injuries can still change the series.

Still, it's hard not to agree with media observers that the Warriors have so many weapons and are playing so well (and so fast) that over the course of a game, and certainly over the course of a series, they're very very hard to beat.

Another Record Setting Win for the Warriors

The Golden State Warriors won the second game of the Finals 132-113, setting a Finals record with the most made 3s at 18.  Steph Curry had his first playoff triple double, and Kevin Durant had a double double for the Dubs.  LeBron James had a triple double for the Cavs.

The Cavs changed their defensive approach and mixed their personnel.  Some of it backfired--they fouled to stop fast breaks, but Curry tied an NBA record by making all 14 of his foul shots.  But with an aggressive game by LeBron James, who also had a record number of assists in the first half, the Cavs kept coming close.  Still, the last actual lead they had was at 15-14 in the first quarter.  The Cavs had runs.  But the Warriors had blizzards.  They got a healthy lead in the third quarter and pulled away in the fourth.

Curry and Durant were the big guns, with momentum-changing and breathtaking shots and plays.  Klay Thompson got his 3 point stroke back.  Durant's defense was dominant as the game wore on.

Coach Steve Kerr was back on the bench for the first time since the first round.  In the post-game euphoria of the media, he cautioned that the Warriors turned the ball over way too many times, and if they do that on the road they are likely to lose.

Most Warriors fans probably remember the media euphoria last year, when some sportswriters wanted to declare them the ultimate winners after their first two home game blowouts, and even more so when they went up 3-1 with a fourth game win.  With a healthy Curry and Kevin Durant, whose play in these games invites some to call him the best in the game, this year is likely to be different.  But nobody should be counting their chickens just yet.

The important game 3--the next odd numbered one-- is Wednesday.  Obviously it's must-win for the Cavs, and it's all but over if the Warriors get the victory.

While a historically excellent team plays basketball in Oakland, San Francisco's baseball team struggles on the road, losing a series to the MLB basement dwelling Phillies, prompting at least one Bay Area sportwriter to proclaim them the worst Giants team in a generation.

Warriors Win Game 1

The Golden State Warriors became the first team in NBA history to win their first 13 games of the playoffs, prevailing against Cleveland in the first game of the Finals 113-91.

I remember the Lakers team of 2001 that swept the first three rounds but were unprepared for a rampaging Allen Iverson in the first game of the finals.  But they stifled him after that to beat Philadelphia in five games.

The Warriors played arguably one of their best games of the year, and yet not the best they could, at least theoretically.  Their shooting was a bit off.  But their defense was stellar, as was their rebounding.  The most startling stat was turnovers--they had four as a team.  LeBron alone had 7.  Kevin Durant scored 38, with thunderous dunks and long 3 pointers.  Steph Curry picked his spots for his amazing 3s, that further deflated and panicked the Cavs, as did his stuttering drives.  For most of the game the team was fluid, fast and fun.

 The next day the Cavs were talking about increasing their "physicality."  That could be translated into, the only way they can win is if they hurt somebody.  The Dubs chemistry was incredible, with lots of assists and everyone contributing on both ends.  The Cavs won last year because Curry was hobbled and they goaded Draymond into a suspension.  It's their main hope this year as well.

That's the remarkable thing about that first game: both teams are at full strength for the first time in three finals meetings.  It was clear in that first game that if the Warriors are focused and getting shots to fall at near their normal clip, they are the better team.  Only a significant injury is likely to change that.

Most of the time the odd number games are the most important in a playoff series--1, 3 and especially 5 (and of course 7, duh.)  Winning the first game is a big deal.  But as we found last year, lots can happen.

Two Finals Set

Now it's certain: The Warriors and the Cavs meet in the NBA finals, starting in a week.  There's been a lot of noise about the Warriors sweeping but I'm not listening to it.  I will not be surprised if the series goes the full seven.  I do expect the Warriors to win it.

Congratulations to Stanley Cup champs the Pittsburgh Penguins who tonight made it back to the finals.  I don't follow hockey at all but it was always electric in Pittsburgh when the Penguins were in the finals.

Here They Come

Congratulations to the Golden State Warriors, who won the Western Conference championship, going 12-0 in the playoffs, to be the first team to qualify for the  NBA championship finals.

They did it with a very active Stephen Curry and a deadly Kevin Durant on both ends, over an injury-depleted San Antonio Spurs.  But even though they might not have swept the Spurs at full strength,  they likely would have won in 6 or fewer games.

The only shock of the playoffs this week was the collapse of Cleveland in their third game, overcome by a depleted Celtics team that made up a 20 point deficit in the fourth quarter.  The disappearance of LeBron James in the quarter suggests how dependent they are on him having great games in the finals.

The Warriors may worry about the continuing shooting woes of Klay Thompson, an unusual pattern for this streak shooter who rarely has even two bad games in a row.  They will need a spry Iguodala and the canny Zaza to keep giving the Cavs a different look at the rim.  And protecting the ball better is also essential.  But the Cavs caving like that certainly diluted the intimidation factor, assuming they emerge (as they probably will, in five or six.)  It won't be till June but here come the Dubs.

And all of a sudden here come the Giants.  More home runs provide another victory, this time over the WC Cubs.  Winning on the road is a good complement to winning at home.

Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Pirates, also with a disappointing start, have shown signs of getting back on track, especially as injured stars come back.  Both teams have a ways to go, but at least their season may not be lost after all.

Big Wins on Both Sides of the Bay

The San Francisco Giants won their fifth straight behind strong pitching from their youngest starter Ty Blach and their second over the visiting LA Dodgers.

They've won with new and improvised lineups due to injuries but now some of the hurt players are nearly ready to come back.  The problem becomes damaging team chemistry during the best streak of the year, which may not be the worst problem to have but is a delicate one.

Improved hitting, especially the home run streaks that both Buster Posey and Brandon Belt are on has made the difference, but some of the starting pitching has been surprisingly good.  Johnny Cueuto you expect, but how about the youngest (Blach) and the oldest, Matt Cain, who beat the Dodgers the other night and is 3-1.  He just broke into the top three of Giants pitchers in history in terms of innings pitched over the years.  He's kept the faith, kept his confidence in these last rough years and the Giants stuck with him for what was likely his last chance.  Now with Bumgarner out for several more months, they need both the young and the old guys.

Meanwhile the Golden State Warriors blew out the Spurs by the largest margin they've ever recorded in the playoffs, 136-100, to extend their playoff streak to 10-0.

Klay Thompson did have a better game, though not a breakout one.  And indeed there seemed to be an attempt by the Spurs' Aldridge to undercut Kevin Durant on a shot, but without effect.  The Warriors did come out with a very strong first quarter, led by Steph Curry with 4 threes in the period alone.  Otherwise it was a big game up and down the lineup.

Andre Iguodala was out with a knee contusion but McCaw had a good game, scoring 18 with his increased minutes.  Zaza went out early with a heel contusion.  No word yet on whether they will be available for the third game, though it seems likely both will (assuming Zaza's x-rays are ok.)  Likewise it's not known if the Spurs main man Leonard whose absense was keenly felt in this game will be back when play resumes in San Antonio.

Pre-Games Notes

Just before game time, the Giants are on a sudden winning streak facing the Dodgers, and the Warriors prepare for the second game after coming back from 25 down to win the first game of the western conference finals over the Spurs.

The most promising aspect of the Giants' lately is better and more effective hitting.  They are scoring runs in bunches.

The Warriors look to have a much better first quarter tonight.  A conspicuous weakness in the first game was the play of Klay Thompson on both ends.  Unless there's something really wrong--which could be a real problem going forward--expect him to have a great game tonight.

What else to worry about?  Steph Curry's right wrist which gave him problems in the fourth quarter.  And retaliation by the Spurs to injure one of the Warriors stars.  When Popovich pops off about a dirty play, the rest of the team gets the message.

A plus for the Warriors--coach Kerr is more active and involved each game.

Giant Problems

It was a strong suspicion after the All-Star break last year, but now it seems inevitable: the days of the San Francisco Giants we've known this decade are numbered.  There will be big changes by next season.

Not just the patched-together and sometimes desperate lineups of this current race to the bottom, caused in many cases by injuries but also by the hard facts that this team is losing.  It can't seem to score runs or get anybody out anymore.

Many observers point out to left field but the Giants won World Championships without a stellar left fielder--and failed to win one when they had their biggest offensive force in decades out there: Barry Bonds.

No, the problem place is third base.  The Giants probably could not have won its last championship without Pablo Sandoval in the playoffs.  Apart from their perennial MVP Buster Posey, it was the pesky hitting of Sandoval and Pence that generated just enough offence to keep them in close games, and sparked other hitters in routs.  

Sandoval's eventual replacement Matt Duffy was a key to keep them competitive in the regular season, both in the field and as a hitter, although devastating injuries ruined their 2015 season.  And the attrition of the championship pitching staff began.

But with a healthy start, 2016 looked more than promising.  The infield of Duffy, Crawford, Panik and Belt was arguably the best in baseball.  But when the second half nosedive began, the Giants traded Duffy for a starting pitcher.  I felt at the time--and a case can still be made--that the Giants' chemistry collapsed without Duffy, and it's been pretty much downhill since.

On paper it may have seemed that all the Giants lacked was a big time closer, since that was the conspicuous cause for their failure in the playoffs.  It turns out not to have been so simple.

Another incredible raft of injuries has turned a bad situation into chaos.  The Giants are in last place for a good reason--they are playing like a last place team.

Is it possible that they reverse 2016, with a terrible first half but a great second half?  Possible, yes.  But not likely. It's gone past the point of individual changes--it seems like a group thing now.  Big changes are probably coming.  Giants fans should brace themselves.

Meanwhile, the Warriors are undefeated in the playoffs.  They've shown some resilience and adaptability, based on their wisely revived slogan of "strength in numbers."  If they stay healthy (and Cleveland does), a rematch of last year's finals looks all but inevitable.

The Bad Luck Giants, the Dubs Await, and Baseball History in Pittsburgh

The San Francisco Giants must have had a lot of very good luck in their championship years because their run of bad luck over the last two seasons and so far this season has been extraordinary.

On Thursday, the Giants started exactly one of their opening day starters in his regular position.  Catcher Posey played first, first baseman Belt played left field and third baseman Nunez played shortstop.  Only Pence played his usual position of right field.

Reserve Hundley was catching. The rest of the team wasn't even on the team: Arroyo at third, Tomlinson at second, Hernandez in center.  Although the Giants' dearth of hitting might suggest starters were benched, it was actually injury.  After their left-fielder Parker crashed into the wall and hurt his shoulder, their center fielder Span crashed into the wall and hurt his shoulder.  Could this actually be happening?

The new blood helped--Arroyo and Tomlinson got two hits apiece--but not enough.  Once again the Giants could manage only one run, ruining a fine outing by starter Matt Moore.  And once again, the bullpen lost it, this time in the 10th, allowing 4 runs.

Splitting a low scoring four game series with the Dodgers was however a kind of improvement.  Still, the ESPN story noted that it was another sellout in San Francisco but empty seats were visible.  It might not be much longer before that string of sellout games comes to an unlucky end.

Meanwhile, the Warriors have swept Portland in the first round and await the winner of the Utah/LA Clippers series.  Kevin Durant helped them to a record-setting first quarter in the fourth game, but there's still no word on when Coach Kerr will return.

 In Pittsburgh, a player born in Africa played in a US Major League baseball game for the first time on Wednesday. He's an infielder for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and in his first at bat he hit a single. He has a great baseball name, too: Gift Ngoepe.

It may seem weird since it took until 2017 for the first African to play while so many African Americans have played the game. In fact, the first all-black starting lineup also belonged to the Pittsburgh Pirates back in the 1970s. But the lack of African players has not been due to racial discrimination, at least not since Jackie Robinson. Baseball is apparently not a major sport in any African country, and to be born and raised in South Africa presents fewer opportunities to learn and play the game.

Two Sides of the Bay: Warriors Up, Giants Down

With the first game in the bank, the Golden State Warriors hit the home floor against Portland in the first round of the playoffs without Kevin Durant and two other injured players.  They dressed 11 guys, 5 of them centers.  Then during the game, both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson had off nights shooting, especially the 3s.

So game 2 was a loss, right?  Not exactly.  The Dubs won by 29 points.

High octane defense, especially in the third quarter, and other players more than rising to the occasion, especially rookie Patrick McCaw (starting for Durant) and tall flying man JaVale McGee.  McGee changed the game in limited minutes, and while McCaw made some big momentum-changing shots (banking a fearless 3 pointer, followed by a fearless layup in traffic) he was credited with defensive intensity throughout the game.

Even with lots of misses, both Curry and Thompson had some exciting moments, including some deadly Steph deep threes, and a Thompson sequence beginning with a soaring block at one end and a catch-and-shoot three at the other.  A fun game of highlights, especially the third quarter, when the Dubs held Portland to 12 total points.

While the Warriors keep looking better (and a final collision with Cleveland looking even more likely), the San Francisco Giants continued their woeful April.  Like the end of last season, every time it seems they've hit the low point, they go lower.  After surviving extra innings in Kansas City with a 2-1 win, their bats were again silent in support of Madison Bumgarner, leading to a scandalous fourth loss in his first four starts.

As bad as things were in terms of hitting percentage for left fielders, it got worse with the injury to J. Parker, who will be out awhile.  Two other potential left fielders are also injured, though former l.f.er Michael Morse is playing himself back in shape in the minors.

The only difference is that the bullpen pitching has been pretty good lately.  It's mostly a lack of hitting, especially run-producing hits.  Everyone expects that to begin happening, but for the sake of the season, it really should happen soon.

Update 4/21: First the Pittsburgh Pirates saw their season devastated by the suspension of star Marte.  Today an off the field injury to Madison Bumgarner that will keep him off the mound for several months pretty much devastates the Giants' season, which is already in bad shape.  MadBum started strong, hitting two homers and taking a perfect game into the sixth inning on opening day, and pitching very well since, despite absent run support.  But a pretty dumb dirt bike accident has wrecked the Giants' rotation, and who knows what it will do to his pitching future.  A  very sad turn of events.

NBA winding down, MLB starting up

The Lakers beat the Spurs, after which Stephen Curry and the Warriors outgunned the Suns, and just like that, the race for the Western Division championship was over.  The Warriors have clinched it, as well as the best record in the NBA for the third straight season.

This gives them home court throughout the playoffs; they'd already earned it for the Finals if they get there.  With Kevin Durant officially slated to return to action Saturday, the Dubs are strong favorites to win it all.

As the NBA season winds down and playoffs begin, MLB has started.  Unfortunately the SF Giants began by reenacting the same nightmare that ended last season and haunted them ever since: bullpen failure in the 8th and 9th to blow the save and lose the game, marring a dominant performance by MadBum, taking a perfect game into the sixth and becoming the first pitcher in MLB history to hit two home runs on opening day--and they were whoppers.

The Giants continued to blow leads throughout their first series.  On the bright side, they are hitting.  Usually hitters or pitchers dominate across the board at the beginning of the season.  Let's hope that's it.