campaign junkie update

Shaping up as the states to watch over the next couple of weeks are Tennessee next Tuesday (2/10) and Wisconsin on February 17.

Both John Edwards and Wesley Clark are devoting time and resources to Tennessee, and both have something of a home field advantage. But as of now, John Kerry is leading in the polls. With another string of victories likely this weekend, he will be taking on the math of inevitability by the 10th as well as the air of inevitability. So two things could happen to slow Kerry's momentum, apart from voters who simply favor another candidate: voters who want to slow down the process, or voters who assume Kerry will be the nominee and doesn't need their vote, so they can vote for Edwards because he used to practice law in the state and is a southerner, or Clark because he shook their hand or something. But right now it looks like: Kerry, Edwards, Clark in that order. If that holds, Clark would essentially be finished (and it would probably be a great relief to him, because he's not very good at this and probably knows it by now, and he appears not to really have the stomach for campaigning over the long haul.) Edwards stays alive with a win or possibly a close second.

The last battlefield could be Wisconsin on 2/17. Howard Dean is making his last stand there. If he doesn't win it, he may very well get out of the race. Edwards has chosen Wisconsin as the place he needs to show he can win outside the south. If he doesn't win there, especially if he has not won another state besides South Carolina, he may concede. Kerry would go into March 2 Super Tuesday essentially unopposed. Again, voters in Wisconsin could simply try to keep the race going by coming out for Edwards or Dean. But it is highly likely that they will split that vote. Unless Edwards comes out of 2/10 with momentum from two southern victories (which is unlikely as of now) he probably couldn't be the focus of the non-Kerry voters, but he does have the best chance at the moment to survive. There's also the possibility that the Dean activists will pull out all the stops for at least a symbolic victory in Wisconsin, achieving at least some emotional satisfaction. But it is more likely that they will have their moment at the Convention when Dean speaks (as he certainly will.)

The problem for these candidates is that they need clear victories over Kerry, and that is highly unlikely. He is going to pick up almost as many delegates in these states, even if he is a few percentage points off the top spot. And he is going to be winning every other state in contention. Winning Michigan, Washington and Maine will be huge. And for the other candidates this is just a strategy to stay in the race until Super Tuesday. Wresting the nomination from Kerry is even more of a long shot. The only surprise since Tuesday so far is how much money these candidates claim they continue to raise. The Democrats are benefitting from this primary race in getting attention for their agenda and point of view. It's not certain that the money going to these campaigns would be available to the Democratic ticket anyway, but if it would be, there may be reason down the road to regret spending it now on candidacies that have no realistic chance.

Side note: we don't see Letterman much anymore but apparently candidates have been doing Top Ten Lists for him lately. John Edwards did "ten things you'll never hear candidates say." #3 was "Lady, that is one ugly baby." #1 was "Read my lips: no new wardrobe malfunctions."