the day before

National poll numbers today are shaking the assumptions of the media bobbleheads. The numbers show Bush more than vulnerable both on Iraq and on the economy---specifically on jobs. His approval rating has fallen below 50% for the first time, and John Kerry has a 7 point lead in a head to head matchup for November. This just after a weekend in which bobbleheads pooh poohed Iraq as an issue, and gave the economic issue to Bush. They also talked about the Democrats hurting each other on the campaign trail, but that turned out not to be so: because the media covers conflict, the Democratic message got repeated by all or most of the contenders, so it made an impression.

But here at Speculation Central we don't think the primary campaign is going to be all over tomorrow, and that's a good thing. Judging from Kerry's last two days of scheduling, he may have concluded that John Edwards is going to win South Carolina, and Oklahoma may go to Wesley Clark. Our barely educated guess is that he's looking at 5 outright victories out of 7, and will come in second in the other two. If Edwards wins South Carolina by 5 points or more, and shows a consistent second place in other states, he remains enough of a contender to satisfy the media, who will then keep covering the race. Howard Dean will need outright victories before March 2 to remain legitimate and not just an annoying spoiler. By the March 2 primaries it's likely that Kerry's opposition will be token, unless Edwards has run up some victories beyond the South. Right now, the national polls show him not as strong against Bush as Kerry. That of course could change as he becomes better known. But Howard Dean is unlikely to recover as a viable candidate. He is shown losing to Bush by a clear margin in the new poll.

Kerry is in striking distance in all seven states tomorrow. If voters are still strongly motivated by electability and they see these poll numbers, it could be enough to give him the additional two or three victories. But this may also be a time that voters want to pause and take a second look at other candidates. The frontrunner has the powerful appeal of a winner, but also the prominent position as target and symbol for whatever negative messages voters want to send. Our gut feeling is that he does not win South Carolina or Oklahoma. If he doesn't, it's not necessarily a bad thing, and doesn't really slow down his pace to the nomination. If he does, it's a strong message that voters are focused and powerfully motivated to get rid of the Bush.