The Results

John Kerry won primaries and caucuses in five states; in the largest and most important primary (Missouri) he got a majority of votes cast in a field of 7 candidates, as he did in the North Dakota caucus. In South Carolina, which John Edwards won by about 15 percentage points, he got a quarter of the votes cast, and more than that in Oklahoma, where Wesley Clark was the apparent winner, just a few hundred votes ahead of John Edwards. In addition to Missouri and North Dakota, Kerry won Delaware, Arizona and New Mexico. So he has won in every region of the country except the traditional south, and today he has shown strength among black and Latino voters, who were not present in significant numbers in New Hampshire and Iowa.

Apart from the total delegates that Kerry won, the most significant number of the night comes from the exit polls. Asked if Kerry was an acceptable nominee even if they didn't vote for him in the primary, 80% in 3 of the 4 primary states said yes. In Oklahoma, where he ran slightly behind Clark and Edwards, it was 70%.

Joe Lieberman dropped out of the race, while Howard Dean polled behind Al Sharpton in South Carolina. John Edwards' strong win in South Carolina, and his eloquent stump speech in victory (which moved the MSNBC panel to high hosannas), raised his campaign, which had staked everything there, outspending Kerry by 5 to 1. Senator Edwards of North Carolina was born in South Carolina, and used that to his advantage. Wesley Clark, as off-putting in victory as he is in defeat, claimed a great victory in Oklahoma, where he camped out since New Hampshire. Clark is from neighboring Arkansas, and was perceived as conservative because he's career military. Edwards did better than expected in Oklahoma, principally because he was endorsed by Barry Switzer, the famed Oklahoma football coach whose endorsement is credited with electing the current governor. (The source of this information was the Edwards campaign.)

Edwards' victory may result in a cash infusion. If so, he can mount campaigns in the next round of southern states, and then he is hoping to break out of the south with a win in Wisconsin. Clark will also need inspired contributors to mount any sort of challenge, although it's not clear where he will be able to challenge Kerry.

Kerry asserted that he was the only candidate to campaign in all seven of the Feb. 3 states, and is committed to campaigning in every primary and caucus state in the future. This is not only a good strategy for the frontrunner, it's an appropriate practice if the party is to test for its best nominee. Edwards is likely to be his final viable opponent in the weeks ahead. We've been saying since before Iowa that his "two Americas" theme is a winner. He is eloquent, intelligent and straightforward. But he may look a little too much like Jimmy Carter, a good man not prepared to swim with the sharks. Lack of experience has become a qualification, but maybe the tide has turned on that as it may have on many other knee-jerk truths from recent elections.

South Carolina was the first state to report, so Edwards got his media moment early in the evening. At that point the media bobbleheads were touting his chances based on the "domestic themes," of jobs, health care, education and so on, whereas Kerry's appeal as the war hero was as a leader on "foreign affairs," which they once again denied would be the deciding factor against Bush. But they don't quite understand Kerry's appeal as a war hero---because he is also an anti-war hero. His war hero image does reinforce his foreign policy experience as a U.S. Senator who has been very active in debating policies and making law in foreign and military affairs. His anti-war hero image does reinforce his ability to distinguish bad wars from necessary actions, and his resolve to not involve American young people in unnecessary military adventures, let alone kill the innocent of other countries in order to make wealthy people more wealthy. But his warrior in war and peace image translates to those domestic issues as well. He will fight for jobs, for health care, for education, and stand up to the very powerful oligarchy of corporations and entrenched interests.

Most importantly to Democrats now, this peaceful warrior image means he will give Bush and the Republicans a fight to the finish, which is what voters dearly want. (A large percentage classified themselves as either "angry" or "dissatisfied.") In his evening interviews, you could see this quality: no criticism went unanswered, and he repeated that he looked forward to the fight for the nomination and the election.

Kerry is battle tested, in war, in the war against the war, and in the political wars. Kerry won a very tough election for the Senate against a very popular Republican Governor---and in Massachusetts you had to be very popular to be both Republican and governor--- Bill Weld. Here's what one of Kerry's Navy buddies told New Yorker reporter Joe Klein: "John's at his best under pressure, when he's being seriously challenged. He gets really cool, very calm. He really is a warrior---he just loves it. I took one look at him as he was walking into Faneuil Hall for one of the last debates and I thought, Bill Weld has no idea what's about to hit him."

That's what Democrats are looking for in a nominee. Not somebody who seemingly changes his entire personality from debate to debate, like Al Gore apparently did, giving the woeful George W. Bush an opportunity that probably surprised even him. Wesley Clark's basic message is fine with most Democrats. John Edwards message, eloquence and intelligence will inspire most Democrats, as did Howard Dean's. But Democrats want the nominee who will beat George Bush, and beyond the Democratic party (but including those in it), voters want somebody who is equipped to be President from Inauguration Day, who can deal with foreign challenges and get America back into the international community, while making sense of our affairs at home. That's why John Kerry won seven primaries and caucuses out of nine, and why he's going to win in Michigan and Washington state later this week. Kerry's campaign slogan, a nasty cooption of Bush posturing, is "bring it on." He means it.

More vice presidents from Speculation Central: John Edwards continues to deny interest in being the v.p. nominee, and who can blame him? Of course it is something he has to say at this stage, or no one would donate money to his campaign. If he is asked, and he does accept, he would be a strong v.p. candidate because of his eloquence, intelligence and energy. Coming from the south may not add a lot.

As we mentioned before, Kerry could choose a Midwesterner like Gephardt, to help win the crucial industrial states. Or Jennifer Granholm, the very popular governor of Michigan, a key battleground state. That she's a woman will also help, especially since the Republicans aren't going to be able to portray Kerry as a wimp (or as those Arnold clones on Saturday Night Live used to say, a "girlie man.")

Or Kerry could look to a southwestern strategy, and choose Bill Richardson, governor of New Mexico, a Latino, and former ambassador to the UN in the Clinton administration. Richardson himself is a proponent of such a strategy, so he wouldn't have to be convinced it's a good idea. Richardson mentioned the environment as an important issue in the west, and though this crucial area has barely been mentioned in the campaign so far, Kerry is very strong on environmental issues.

A musical note: One beat after Kerry finished his victory speech in New Hampshire, the ballroom speakers boomed with the Boss, singing "No Retreat, No Surrender," a great, great song. Tonight in Washington state, the same timing but a different song: native son Jimi Hendrix: "(Let Me Stand Next To Your) Fire."

(Reminds me of the best commercial I saw on the Super Bowl-a very young Jimi in 1953 chooses a bottle of Pepsi from a blue machine outside a music store, with electric guitars in the window (everything about the Pepsi bottle and machine were vintagely correct, but not the guitars.) He had passed on a Coke from the red machine across the street, also in front of a music store, but with accordions in the window. The soundtrack treated us to a few notes of "Foxy Lady" on each instrument. "Good choice" was the conclusion.)

(Yeah, I saw that, and most of the actual game, but during the infamous halftime show I was watching C-Span 2, and a fascinating interview with Franklin Toker-met him a few times in Pittsburgh---about Fallingwater. And I do not regret it, having already seen the Latoya model of the Jackson breast in Playboy. Same model, probably, from the same surgeon.)