Polls and Other Pre-New Hampshire Notes UPDATED

Update 2: The USA today poll shows basically the same spread as CNN but this is the first to show Obama with more than 40% support. They have him at 41% vs. 28% for Hillary. Edwards is at 19%, about the same as in other polls. So that's the other part of this story--not only has Obama's lead grown but he's getting a higher proportion of the total field. Here's a summary of this poll and others announced Sunday. END of Update 2.

3pm PT: New polls are confirming a ten to twelve point lead for Obama in New Hampshire, including the CNN tracking poll which yesterday showed a tie. Their survey says Obama is gaining about 3 points a day, at the expense of both Hillary and Edwards. On the GOPer side, Huckabee is up a couple of points to 14% which may be good enough for third place, behind John McCain and Mitt Romney. The Rasmussen poll has a slightly larger lead for Obama, but otherwise is much the same. This poll was taken before the debate yesterday. If that changed anything, it won't show up until tracking polls tomorrow. A couple of other polls show the same Obama trend, but see the race as tighter. They agree that the order is Obama, Hillary, Edwards. END OF UPDATE.


Not all the New Hampshire polls show Obama will such a large lead--one of the latest has him up only a couple of points, while others show a tie with Hillary. But these polls are also consistent in not showing Huckabee with an appreciable Iowa bounce.

There are lots of stories about discontent and dissension among Hillary's top staff and monied supporters--but that's consistent with the predictable media narrative: the rise of Obama, the fall of Hillary. But if Hillary's staff is being criticized, it couldn't happen to nicer guys. And it is right now when we begin to see their true colors--when they're under pressure.

We've seen them when they were arrogant, now we see them being even nastier. They've already reportedly engaged in what they know is a false accusation about Obama's record on abortion. A similar argument was made before and they know what they are asserting is false: Obama had a 100% rating from Planned Parenthood while a state legislator, and he voted "present" on some bills at their request. And the Clinton staff is desperately attacking from the Rabid Right, noting Obama's past statement on limiting mandatory minimum jail sentences. Shades of George Bush the First v. Dukakis and the old "soft on crime." Truly despicable.

Apparently that's also the opinion of a number of executive officers of AFSCME, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union that endorsed Hillary Clinton, who signed an open letter protesting the negative ads targeting Barack Obama that their union is sponsoring--not only on the basis of being unauthorized and directed against someone who has always supported their union, but for being distorted and misleading:

"It is also worth noting that the campaign that AFSCME is waging against Sen. Obama is fundamentally dishonest and inconsistent with past positions of our union, i.e. attacking him for not forcing individuals to purchase health care even when they can’t afford it. The ads are misleading in attempting to give the impression that they are associated with John Edwards rather than Hillary Clinton and in their claims that Sen. Obama’s health care plan will exclude 15 million people when in fact every person will have the opportunity to participate. This dishonesty is giving our union a “black eye” among many in the media and the progressive community."