Two Weeks to PA

It's two weeks until Pennsylvania votes. Most polls have shown Obama closing the gap on Clinton, including the respected Quinnipiac University Poll, which has Clinton's lead down to 6 points, and fading in all demographic categories, including women. BUT there's one new outlyer poll, and unfortunately it's generally the most trustworthy: the Survey USA poll which shows the gap is holding at 18 points, and Obama lagging in parts of the Commonwealth he needs.

So who to believe? The internals of these two polls are markedly different. But I'll leave it to the experts to parse them. Obama has been heard saying that anything under 10 points is his goal. In the meantime, anxious Obama PA partisans can fire themselves up with this rollicking song, made especially for the Commonwealth by country rocker Earl Pickens.

But in terms of the big picture, Clinton is still playing defense, as the "resignation" of Mark Penn turns out to be not quite that. The spectacularly unpopular Penn continues to take fire from political observers, and there are some signs that the Obama campaign may fashion this into an issue to take to voters. According to Roger Simon in Politico: In the days and weeks ahead, the Barack Obama campaign is going to pose a simple question to the undecided voters and undeclared superdelegates who will decide the Democratic nomination for president: If Hillary Clinton can’t run a good primary campaign, how is she ever going to run a good campaign against the Republicans?"

The issue is broader than that--it's also about executive ability as qualification for the job of Chief Executive and Commander in Chief--and Obama has said before that how he runs his campaign should tell people something about how he would function as President.

There were a few stories today about changes in the Clinton campaign, about staying positive, and trying to make an icon of Hillary the fighter. Meanwhile, the Obama ad blitz in PA is introducing him to more people. But it's also raising expectations. Is that election going to be driven by the distraction of Hillary's Rocky media persona, demographics, machine politics, PA stubbornness and silent racism? Or counteracted by union activism, demographic changes, grassroots organizing, the change appetite, and a focus on ending the campaign and settling on the nominee? In two weeks, we'll know. And we'll have a better idea how much longer this will go on.

As for the General and the Ambassador Show on Capitol Hill Tuesday, it was just another rerun. In the CIC sweepstakes, McCain looked like an ass, Clinton looked like a real good Senator, and I'll second Lawrence O'Donnell that Obama asked the questions you would want your Commander in Chief to ask, and in the tone you'd want him or her to have. Meanwhile, it appears the Bushites are positioning themselves to create a politically potent event in the fall: depending on which way the electoral wind is blowing, an announcement of troop withdrawls, or an attack on Iran.