Weekend Catch-Up

Barack Obama continued to campaign to good effect, as he scored more endorsements and super-delegates, and polls in PA and Indiana tightened, while his lead in North Carolina grew.

While Hillary Clinton's campaign and candidacy continues on its path of self-destruction. She told two more whoppers--one about health care, one about Iraq--and the fallout continued from her chief strategist Mark Penn's meeting to help the Columbian government lobby for passage of a trade bill she opposes, with his resignation from his main post--though it's not clear what that really means in terms of his influence. While the response to Friday's dump of Billary's tax returns may just be beginning. We have met the snipers, and they are us.

Obama's endorsements included a surprise--former Republican Senator and Independent Governor of Connecticut Lowell Weicker. The most recent super-delegate is Margaret Campbell of North Dakota, who the New York Times said was the 69th to declare for Obama since Feb. 4, while Clinton lost a net of two.

As for PA, let's face it, nobody knows. The more reliable polls show Clinton still ahead but declining, though if her past pattern holds, she will rebound somewhat near or on election day. But nobody seems certain about key constituencies. How high or low Obama seems to depend on a particular poll's judgment on how men will vote. The question of who will really turn out is a big one. Will the Mayor's advocacy for Clinton suppress the black vote in Philadelphia? Will Clinton's usual constituency vote or stay home? The role of the youth vote is controversial: this analysis in Politico downplays it, this one in the Washington Post plays it up. So the expectations game continues.

Rassmussen also has Obama up by 10 points nationally. More polls to come Monday no doubt--what fun! While Hillary has to explain Mark Penn, the $109 million, and so much more. While Obama is out there meeting people and having fun. Oh, and this quote, which hasn't gotten much notice yet--a Newsweek piece about Rahm Emanuel, just about the only uncommitted super-delegate in Illinois who has ties both to the Clintons and Obama: "This has got to come to an end by June. It has to be over and it will be over," he says, with the authority of a man who will make it over if he has to.

So that remains the question: barring the terribly unforeseen, will it be over in late April, early May, early June, late June, or early July? I'm thinking early May.