Wednesday Wallow

Three new polls in Pennsylvania are just as contradictory as others this week. They show Obama closing the gap, and Hillary holding firm. But the pundits sense something is happening. At the Note, they list elements of the latest news--the Penn problem, the Clintons contradiction on the Columbia trade deal, etc--that could really hurt her in the Commonwealth. They note that the unions (the Teamsters especially) have a hold on this issue of trade and won't let go. If the phony flip-flop on NAFTA hurt Obama in Ohio, what will real contradiction do in PA? I just wish the pundits would zero in on the problem: Hillary says she's against the trade deal with the same people who put $800,000 into her joint account with Bill.

Howard Fineman on MSNBC notes that Hillary is campaigning in PA places where she should already be strong while Obama is venturing into her territory, and poster Daniel Nichanian at HuffPost suggests "The Obama campaign, however, is rapidly gaining confidence in its Pennsylvania numbers," which is why it is spending heavily. (There's also the reason of investment: money spent in PA now is money that won't have to be spent there in the general election, when Obama is the nominee.)

In other future primary states, the first Oregon poll shows Obama ahead by 10 points, and he remains so far ahead in North Carolina--with registrations of African Americans four times higher than before--that the MSNBCers at First Read suggest it's pretty much over, and the real question is how big Obama wins it--big enough to add so many delegates and popular votes that whatever Clinton may win in PA will be chicken feed?

This set of contests is so weird, though. I trust the North Carolina numbers, and Oregon. But I still see Hillary viable in Indiana and PA, and the poll numbers won't mean much until the last week in either. There's the debate before PA, and Hillary's patented last minute surges, which usually mean: her voters go back to her, when prompted by the machine supporting her.

Meanwhile, the "new" Hillary has yet to surface--maybe the Penn is still mightier, because she's on the radio playing the victim of a "double standard"--code to women voters--and she's on the stump claiming only she can end the war in Iraq, because Barack is all talk. Not exactly the positive campaign we're supposed to be seeing.