Saturday, October 18, 2008

From Here

The debates are over, and the McCainiacs have free reign to foist their crap on the public without direct rejoinder. My notes on their voter suppression efforts should be up in a few minutes at Dreaming Up Daily, but that's a major thrust. Although they got beaten back in Ohio by the unlikely agency of the U.S. Supreme Court and there's been a high profile push-back by the Obama campaign.

Actually I hope they keep up the negative crap and the voter suppression efforts, since nothing Obama can say will do as much to keep supporters from getting too complacent.

Complacency is also likely to be less of a problem if the polls tighten, as some expect they will, if only because they usually do. Although Five Thirty Eight thinks it's more likely that the numbers will simply stay the same. In any case, it seems unlikely the tracking polls will move towards McCain for the next couple of days as the Obama post-debate bounce shows up (as it has started to in some but not all of the tracking polls Friday.) But the tightening could start next week. Supporters don't need to know that even a 4 point national lead is pretty substantial.

Still the name of the game at this point is getting voters to the polls (or however they vote), and getting those votes counted. That's where primed and even anxious supporters do their thing, with what looks so far like excellent back-up from the campaign hq.

We may also be in for only a week or so more of McCain-Palin negativity--if they don't make the traditional move to a positive campaign in the last week, then they're really desperate, if not self-destructive. But this campaign has been unprecedented in so many ways, all historical bets are off.

But if you want to be premature (though not complacent) and look ahead to election night, you may recall that I said that by the time we're all the way down the East Coast to Florida, it might be over, if Obama indeed wins Florida. But according to Mike Allen at Politico, it might be indicated sooner: "The quandary is highlighted by Virginia, a state that has not voted Democratic for president since 1964 but where Obama is now leading in polls. There is no realistic McCain electoral college strategy that does not depend on winning the Old Dominion. If it is clear on Nov. 4 that Obama has won in Virginia by the time polls there close at 7 p.m. — it will still be daylight west of the Mississippi — the obvious conclusion will be that Obama is headed to the White House."

But Florida would seal it, Florida would be so sweet--and Team Obama believes it can be won on the ground. This LA Times article says they think they can win FLA with turnout, whereas they still need to persuade some voters in Ohio.

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