Monday, October 13, 2008

What Election Are They Covering?

Dangling at the top of Daily Kos on Sunday was the latest Research 2000 daily tracking poll on the presidential race, showing: Obama 53% McCain 40%. Once again, it's not just the 13 point margin, it's the 3 points over 50%. It's McCain below 41%.

And at one point under that number, the Kos himself noted how the major media are doing their best to ignore what the numbers are saying. He referenced Chris Bowers showing that according to the Washington Post, Every state in which McCain has a lead, even if it's just 2.2%, is a "leaning Republican". Every state in which Obama has the lead, even if it's over 10 percent, is a "battleground". Bowers quotes 5 respected electoral projections, all of which have Obama winning handily--but not the major networks or newspapers. His conclusion: Maybe they are afraid of being accused of pro-Obama bias (probably). Maybe they are just biased toward McCain (possibly). Maybe they just suck at electoral forecasting (definitely). Maybe they are invested in a close campaign (absolutely)."

Maybe that's why they paid so little attention to the finding of VP candidate Palin's abuse of power as Gov. of Alaska, which is against Alaska law, voted unanimously out of a committee comprised of 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats. And about which Palin was permitted to lie repeatedly.

But the numbers are getting relentless. According to the latest Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado, "The numbers paint a picture that shows it nearly impossible for McCain to win the state at this point." And what one numbers person after another says--which is pretty much what a lot of Republicans are also saying--is that while it is not absolutely impossible for McCain to is most unlikely. The only time since modern polling started that a presidential candidate was behind by 8 points this late, and came back to win, was Reagan in 1980, who was the change candidate in a change year. What seems to be happening then is that the change candidate this year has made the sale a couple of weeks earlier than Reagan did.

And now the Washington Post/ABC News poll is out with that same astonishing 53% for Obama, to 43% for McCain.

Here's another number from Sunday (that Reagan didn't have): Obama got 15 newspaper endorsements, and McCain got none. "In three weeks, Americans will be called upon to make an exceptional judgment worthy of the times. The forces of history appear to invite boldness and the Post-Gazette believes they should be heeded by voting for the only authentic, fresh agent of change in this race, Barack Obama." --said the Pittsburgh Post Gazette. Among the other endorsements: the St. Louis Post Dispatch, the Asheville NC Citizen Times, and the Tennessean.

We're apparently going to hear a new number soon: a record-breaking month of September for the Obama campaign in donations and probably in the number of donors.

How about the numbers on the McCain-Palin attacks? Apart from the thorough debunking of the Ayers assertions in their campaign ad, public polls show that the attacks aren't working for McCain-Palin--instead the attacks are working against them. The Obama campaign has its own private polls that show the blowback on McCain-Palin is even worse, with their unfavorability ratings shooting above 50%.

The ugliness may be taking on a life of its own--which is what many people fear--but at least the pedigree of the hate-mongers is being exposed. Republicans who have been swimming with their heads above the slime for years are now drowning in it, with nobody to save them but racists, anti-Semites, hate-filled fundamentalists, secessionist nutjobs and exploitable morons.

Some of them--it looks like many of them--are trying frantically to get out of the scum pool before it's too late. McCain is losing GOPer leadership support, notably now in Florida, which he absolutely must win. Notes the Independent: "Senior members of the Republican party are in open mutiny against John McCain's presidential campaign, after a disastrous period which has seen Barack Obama solidify his lead in the opinion polls."

Democrats on the other hand are getting as close to Obama as they can, and talking openly of a 100 seat advantage in the House and a filibuster-proof majority of 60 in the Senate, though neither of those are yet as likely as an electoral college win for Obama.

The Obama campaign knows the numbers, but they know--and have always known--the numbers that count are the voted that are counted. So the ground game is amping up, Obama is campaigning in early voting states, even as the ads increase every week. And the campaign is reportedly going to announce today some voter protection initiatives to make sure registered voters get to vote, and their votes get counted.

No comments: