50 + D= Round 2

 

It was one for the ages--in more ways than one.

Stephan Curry scored fifty points, more than anyone else in NBA history in the 7th game of a playoff series.  That's not "more than anyone 35 or over."  Anyone. (I expect as he scored his last bucket--after he'd dribbled through the entire Kings team--he might have already known the previous record-holder was Kevin Durant with 48.)  He added 8 rebounds and had just one turnover.  It was not just a great individual performance, it was team leadership.  It meant victory and redemption.

Besides Curry's reported pre-game challenge to the Warriors and then his performance, or as part of it, there was strategy. The playoffs are often about making adjustments from game to game. When Mike Brown went small with his Sacramento Kings lineup in the sixth game and it worked, it was likely he would do it again in the seventh game.  So on Saturday Steve Kerr and the Warriors planned how to counter it, and how to run an offense against it.  The Warriors planned possessions and had plays to get points early. Early in the game Steph Curry began to see the lanes open to him due to the Kings lineup and how they were playing. "There's a reason I took 38 shots."   The Dubs took care of the ball, and with Draymond Green back in the starting lineup, they amped up their defense.  Defense leads to offense, and made shots leads to getting set on defense and forcing the Kings into the half court game.  

Then you sprinkle it all with magic dust in the form of Steph Curry and you have a gritty and finally dominant seventh game victory--the worst road team in the regular season to be in the playoffs, winning the first round with their two best games--virtual masterpieces--on the road.

 Another key was rebounding: Kevon Looney had his third game of the series with 20 or more rebounds: 21.  None of the other Warriors shot particularly well, but several of them got key baskets to keep the Kings on their heels.  Klay Thompson, who had several of those key baskets and played tough defense, said after the sixth game that all the Warriors had to do to win the 7th was to do the opposite of what they did in the 6th.  In fact the scores of the two games were almost mirror images, as the Warriors won 120-100.  The Warriors held fast in the first half, started pulling away in a dominant third quarter, and turned the fourth quarter into a rout, much as the Kings had done in game 6. 

With his flips and floaters added to his repertoire, Steph Curry looks like he's installed a magnet in the basket and he's sticking iron filings on the ball as he dribbles.  The basket swallows everything he sends its way.  It's been clear for a few years now that he's added strength to his game--he can muscle opponents out of his way to the basket, as well as making them dizzy with his dribbling and feints.  Recently he's become more consistent, in the 30 to 40 point range every game.  The lows faded along with the highs.  So maybe nobody was contemplating 50 points, but all that scoring and how he scored not only added up, it demoralized the Kings.  

As for the rest of the team, it begins to look more and more like the problems the Warriors have had this season are due to effort and concentration.  They are hard to maintain in an overlong NBA season, especially on the road.  They kept talking about playoff experience and championship DNA, of flipping the switch, but it was starting to sound like wishful thinking.  Now it doesn't.  The sixth game was a worrisome lapse, but they won four of their last five games, two at home and two on the road.  Look out, Lakers.

Despite losing three of their four regular season games against the Lakers, the Warriors have home court in the second round, because the Lakers are a play-in team.  It's a new series with a very different team.  The Lakers are bigger than the Kings, and Anthony Davis is a handful on both ends.  So can LeBron James be, though there are questions about how healthy he actually is.  The Dubs may change their rotations in response, perhaps giving more minutes to Kaminga and Moody.  First game is Tuesday evening at the Chase Center. 

The Deciding Game

 Sixth games are tricky.  One team is trying to end the series by winning it and getting some rest before the next round begins.  The other team is desperate to win it.

The seventh game is not tricky.  Both teams are desperate to win it.

What a difference the Warriors 6th game loss has made.  Media figures were predicting they would win another championship after their fifth game victory.  But the Warriors have been nothing if not inconsistent this year.  And it's not a good look.  Their championship teams won their deciding games.

Klay, J. Poole and Draymond had pretty bad games.  Sacramento coach Mike Brown came up with his own brilliant adjustment, which happened to be the same one that his former boss Golden State coach Kerr came up with in the third game: go small, but make sure your guards crash the boards.  The Warriors had no answers, nor could they match the Kings' energy.

So now the Kings have several advantages in the 7th game: it's a home game for them, and the older Warriors will be on short rest, only a day and a half from the end of the 6th game.  The Kings came up with a lineup strategy on offense that the Warriors couldn't stop.  On defense, they can chase Steph Curry and limit him to 30 points, and dare the others to beat them.  

After the fifth game, one SF Chronicle writer predicted that the remaining three games would all be won by the visiting team.  He's two-thirds right so far.  Another more recently framed the loss as that the Kings running the Warriors off the floor in game 6 (as they did in game 2)  suggesting a changing of the guard: youth over age (that is, mid 20s over mid 30s.)  Others seem to be agreeing today--the Kings are the team of destiny, sweeping away the old Warriors and then the old Lakers.  If the Warriors lose on Sunday, that will likely be the story line.  (Then we'll see if the Warriors' management buys it.)  If the Warriors win, well, forget they said it.  This really is a deciding game, in more ways than one.

Even if they win, the Warriors have proven themselves vulnerable, and the "changed team" is capable of reverting to the team that barely made the playoffs.  Had they won in 6, they would have been favorites against the Lakers (who did win in 6, decisively, against self-destructive Memphis.)  If the Warriors win in 7, probably not.

In any case, the California second round begins Tuesday, with either the Warriors or the Kings playing the Lakers.   

One to Go

 Before the Warriors got on the bus to Sacramento, coach Kerr insisted to media that they were a different team now.  After the fifth game victory in Sacramento, he said that we'd just witnessed the return of the championship Warriors.  

The Warriors experience was one edge over the Kings youthful athleticism.  Along with the tight, precise game they played, the Warriors had an array of heroes.  Steph Curry (31 points) and Klay Thompson (25) scored at key moments.  Draymond Green added his first 20 point game in the playoffs since 2019 to his defense and passing wizardry (again coming off the bench.)  Gary Payton II provided important minutes on both sides of the ball, and once again Andrew Wiggins was a rock, an anchor on both sides as well.  But the key to the game may well have once again been Kevon Looney, with his career high 22 rebounds, the only player but two in history to tool two 20 plus rebound games in the same playoff series.

Now the Warriors, riding high expectations once again, must put this away with a 6th game at home on Friday.  They found the formula. They know what to do now.  Klay Thompson doesn't have to become "6th Game Klay"--those outlandish performances usually came when the Dubs were behind in the series anyway.  Magic Johnson is on the record predicting certain victory.  But it will still take the intensity that won the past three games.

As the Warriors game ends, the Lakers take on Memphis, also leading the series 3-2.  If they both win, their matchup in the second round is set.  Everything is settled in the East now: Miami plays the Knicks, but the winner of the Boston-Philadelphia series will be the likely favorite to win the East.  

The California (and Others) Playoffs Continue

 Will Sacramento's star and best scorer De'Aaron Fox play tonight against Golden State?  On Monday the news was that he'd broken a bone in a finger on his shooting hand and was listed as doubtful.  Fox on the other hand said he was determined to play.  He said it again after practice on Tuesday, having been able to shoot and dribble.

Players however don't decide if they play, and there's been no word I've seen from his coach or the med staff, if they might be worried that re-injuring it could risk more serious damage (doctors that media members have consulted don't seem to think so.)  But while there's always the possibility that the finger swells up overnight, or the remote possibility that this is a mind game being played, I expect he will play.  It's the playoffs.  

How effective Fox can be in this fifth game is an important question. But it's not everything.  There's no reason under any circumstances for the Warriors to get overconfident.  The coaches will have to prepare for the Kings with and without Fox, and the players will have to execute the game plan.  The Dubs will still have an occasion to rise to.

And a lot of people will be watching.  The Warriors-Kings series has become the audience favorite of the first round.  This is the first Western Conference playoffs in which all four California teams were playing.  One of them (the Clippers) lost their series to the Phoenix Suns, and one more (either the Dubs or the Kings) is destined to be gone by the end of the first round.  The Lakers look like they have the number of the chaotic Grizzlies, a team as presently constituted that shouldn't even be allowed in the league, and so the Lakers are likely to win that series with their next game.  Then no matter what happens in San Francisco or Sacramento, there will be another California-on-California team round, as the winner of the Warriors series will almost certainly face the Lakers.

As a result of Tuesday games, Phoenix and Denver, both media favorites to win the West, will face off in the second round.  In the East, it does not look like one of the three strongest teams, the Bucks, are going to make it out of the first round.  That leaves Philadelphia, who swept their first round, and Boston--even though they're just up 3 games to 2 over Atlanta, it's hard to see them not winning the series.  The Knicks and the Heat also look likely to survive the first round.  

It may not count as much of a perspective on the Warriors series, but it is is worth noting that the first round--usually the easiest for the top teams--has only one sweep, and that one in the East.       

That Championship Something

 Is the team healthy?  Check.  Did it have at least some momentum at the end of the regular season? Check.  Does it have playoff pedigree?  Double check.

Now it only takes heroic team play, individual playmaking in the context of the game, energy, focus, endurance, adjustments, strength of will, and luck.  That championship something.

On Sunday the Warriors had it all--well, almost all.  I mentioned earlier that to win this series might take finding an adjustment against this specific team.  In game 3 they found it with the three guard, one big lineup to start. According to coach Kerr, this creates the space they need to move the ball around without risking so many turnovers. In game 4, Draymond volunteered to come off the bench so they could try it again.  He spelled Looney as the big in the first half.

But further adjustments were needed, especially on defense.  Kerr went back to the two-bigs lineup in the second half, and put Draymond on the King's best shooter.  The Warriors got back to team rebounding.  The result was a dominant third quarter.  The Kings came back strong in the fourth but the Warriors held on, surviving turnovers and a time-out error, winning with lockdown defense.  And with luck, as former Warrior Harrison Barnes missed what would have been the winning shot.

You know who was due for a big game--and had one?  Klay Thompson.  But it wasn't one of his double-digit 3s or 40 plus point barrages.  It was the return of Two-Way Klay.  He scored 26 points, with baskets at crucial moments especially late in the game, but his defense was notably stellar.  

The bench did not contribute much and the fourth quarter was ragged, so this was not yet the complete game that the Warriors are capable of.  They'll probably need that in the fifth game, especially now that the Kings are rediscovering their 3 point scoring, and their sharpshooting rookie Murray finally found his shot.  

Now that these teams have taken each other's measure, I expect the rest of the games to be tight, coming down to a few plays at the end. Fifth games are called pivotal for more than the obvious math of them.  Winning the fifth in a tied series is usually a huge advantage.  But with the Warriors still dominant on their home court, they could still win this in seven.  If they steal the fifth game, maybe even in six.    With that championship something, including luck.

Heroes

 The Golden State Warriors we were waiting for showed up on Thursday night in a wire-to-wire 17 point victory to make this a 2-1 series going into the fourth game on Sunday, again on their home court.

Of the three Dubs designated as "questionable" before the game, only Gary Payton II didn't play.  Nevertheless the defense was good, which Coach Kerr attributed to the two key factors: rebounding and taking care of the ball.  Both prevented Sacramento from a lot of transition opportunities.

As predicted, Sabonis (designated questionable) did play and was roundly booed every time he touched the ball.  The Golden State fans played their part in this victory, but it was consistent play along with heroics that led to the win.  Nobody not named Curry had a good shooting night, but many had key buckets because they kept their heads up.  The main heroes of the game were Steph Curry for his magic play and leadership (his 6 threes from beyond 28 ft. set a long distance NBA playoff record) and especially Kevon Looney for his relentless rebounding (20) including key offensive rebounds, and his perfect 9 assists on 9 passes.  I remember how the Warriors stuck with Looney when he was injured at the beginning of his career.  He's become absolutely essential.

A secondary hero would be Moses Moody who in his first meaningful minutes of the series scored 13 points including some key 3s in the first half, and played inspired defense.  On Friday, several players spoke about Draymond's pep talk to them on Wednesday before the game.  These players gave it weight.  They respect his leadership.  On the court the inspirational leader was Curry, with his play and his communication and his overall affect.

Wiggins was consistent despite his shoulder soreness, but J. Poole had a bad shooting day on that ankle.  Still, he made some good decisions that led to points.  He is unlikely to have a breakout game until the ankle heals.  

While this was a game to be cherished, it won't mean a lot if the Warriors don't show up like this again on Sunday.  They must even the series and instill some doubt in their opponent.  Draymond will be back and likely Payton.  Let's hope the chemistry remains.  And you know who is about due for a big game? Klay Thompson.     

Suspense and Suspension

Wednesday update: Think it couldn't get worse for the Warriors on Thursday?  Three key players--Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II and J. Poole--are all listed as "questionable" for the game.  In the playoffs, "questionable" usually means they're playing hurt (or sick), but anything less than heroic performances by these three and the Dubs don't pull it off.  So it's now an even steeper mountain to climb.

Today's sentiment, reportedly within the Warriors team and organization, as well as among NBA players and media, is that Draymond's suspension is a major mistake by the NBA.  It may not turn out to be Green who loses his job because of this.

Tuesday post:

 Under Coach Kerr, the Golden State Warriors had never been down two games to none in any playoff series.  Under Coach Kerr, the Warriors have never lost a playoff series to a Western Conference opponent.  The first precedent has been broken in the current playoff series against the Sacramento Kings.  And with the suspension of Draymond Green for the next game, the second becomes more likely to be broken as well.

In the fourth quarter, when Sabonis held on to Green's foot, Green tramped down on Sabonis' chest.  Sabonis got a technical foul but Green got a flagrant 2 was ejected, and the Warriors lost. The NBA announced the suspension, with the deciding factor apparently being Green's record of "poor sportsmanship." Later the Kings announced that Sabonis had a chest contusion and was Questionable for the third game. 

The suspension decision is questionable on several grounds, including some nasty ones.  But as Draymond is so fond of saying, it is what it is.  So a couple of things are likely in game three at Golden State, in order of likelihood: first, Sabonis will play; second, the Warriors will win. 

If the Warriors don't win and lose the series, and perhaps even if they do win this game and lose the series, or even if they don't get to the finals, Draymond Green's time at Golden State might be just about up.  It doesn't take a tactical genius to figure out by now that if you provoke him even in the playoffs he will take the bait, and hurt his team.  Everyone remembers that they lost a key game and then the championship in a similar situation.  And at the time they were up 3 games to 1, not in a must-win game.  Draymond Green is a unique and a great player.  But if you add The Punch into the equation, this could be strike three.  

Truly this could be serious.  Because Draymond not only put his own job in jeopardy, but that of Bob Myers (needing a contract to continue) and ultimately Coach Kerr. This season Green seemed to play himself back into the good graces of management, and now this.

Even before the suspension was announced, media coverage turned as downbeat on the Warriors' prospects as it had previously been positive.  On their home court the young King team was unintimidated and proved resilient in crunch time, holding on for close victories in both games.  The Warriors did not get away with less than a complete game, let alone a sloppy second game.  It is the Warriors now that must play a nearly perfect game to win.

And they must continue to play at a higher level just to get out of this series.  As a series goes on, the more experienced team generally has the advantage.  But that might not be the case this time.  The Dubs have to play heroically, and/or their coaches have to find and exploit some weakness in the Kings that hasn't yet been apparent, either with game plans or lineup rotations.  And that's just to even the series at home.

It's not that the Kings have proven to be the better team.  It's just likely that the teams are more evenly matched that supposed.  It could become like the great Lakers-Kings series, which went seven games, and turned on one play in the fifth game.   

First Test

 It made me nervous--how positive the pundits were before the first round series started that Golden State would prevail, perhaps easily.  The Warriors themselves were said to be very confident.

One way to look at the Sacramento King's first game victory is that if they were to win any game it would be this one--their first one since (if I'm not mistaken) Shaq was playing against them.  The entire city seemed to be cheering them on.  Another way is to suggest that they needed to play almost a perfect game, and with a lot of luck (and a lot of calls going their way), to beat the Warriors, almost at full strength.  Wiggins was back but was gassed enough at the end to miss a wide open 3 that might have been the winning shot.  The Warriors did not lose from overconfidence. Maybe from fouling too much.

After the game, the Warriors still seemed confident.  Game 2 is not an absolute must win, but pretty close.  The game after a defeat is where you'd expect championship pedigree and playoff experience to show.   

But the game 1 winner usually has an outsized advantage.  The Kings now know they can in fact beat the defending champs in a playoff game.  What might have been bravado before the game is confidence after it.  Now it's up to the Dubs to prove that they aren't just a little short of playoff caliber this year.

All is Known

 About playoff seeding that is.  In terms of outcomes, Sunday went pretty much as expected--all the teams that needed to win did win, including the Warriors.  And did they.  With the most points in the first quarter in NBA history (55) on the way to a 157-101 pounding of  the JV version of Portland.  Klay Thompson needed five threes to reach 300 for the year, which he accomplished in that first quarter.  He ended with 6, and ended the regular season with the most 3 pointers in the league.  Only two other players (including Steph of course) have ever made 300 in a season.

So now we can catch our breaths for a week, until the Warriors face the Sacramento Kings in a first round series starting April 15.  Pundits of course will be fulminating the entire time, and several of those already on record predict the Warriors to go deep in the playoffs.  Steph Curry expressed his confidence that the Warriors can win the West.  

With a week to work Andrew Wiggins back into the flow, and time for some nagging injuries to heal, the Warriors have what it takes to win it--despite less than stellar play at times, they have momentum, they are (we hope) healthy, and so far they're lucky: because the Clippers were playing at the same time, the Clips had to win their game, even though they would have made the sixth seed if they hadn't.  As it is, the Clippers have to face Kevin Durant in the first round.  Sacramento is widely considered a weaker team, challenged on defense.  The question will be whether they face the playoff Warriors or the regular season Warriors.  This is where experience gets added to the Dubs' advantage.  

Another great plus of the Portland game was game experience for the bench. The Dubs bench played the entire fourth and handily outscored Portland, 39 to 28.  Moses Moody actually wound up the second highest scorer with 25.  Everybody played at least 10 minutes, everyone scored.  Throughout the game Gary Payton II had steals and disrupted the Portland offense.  He's already sharp--another good sign.   

The official NBA cutdown of the game usually includes the home team announcers, as this one did.  So the play by play was pretty surreal, as the home announcers tried to talk about the Portland team on the court but kept getting interrupted by Warrior 3 pointers and JK dunks.  I don't think the cut actually included every Warrior basket.  By the fourth quarter the announcers were ignoring the game entirely and chatting about what they are going to do on their long vacations until next season.   

However, it looked like a sizable part of the crowd stuck around.  As in Sacramento, there were lots of Dub fans.  How else to account for the fact that even though Portland was sitting its starters plus half the bench for the past several games, for this early afternoon game the place was sold out.  

Really Down to the Wire

A lot of the drama went out of the final games as more teams locked into playoff spots, like the Sacramento Kings.  So the Kings sat their stars and the Warriors romped--not a given this season so far but not a big test either.  It seems Mike Brown is saving his strategies for the playoffs, as right now the likeliest scenario is for the Dubs has them facing the Kings in the playoffs first round.

The good news for Golden State is that with a victory in Portland Sunday they will be in the playoffs.  The other teams (principally the Clippers) are playing either much weaker teams or teams with their spot set and resting players for the playoffs, so they are likely to win out.  Which means that if the Dubs win in Portland, they will be the sixth seed, without home court in any series. 

At this point it seems that Portland is doing everything legal to lose, in order to get the top draft pick.  So unless the Dubs self-destruct (which of course they have done more than once this year) they should win.   If the Warriors manage to lose, they will drop out of the playoffs entirely, and into a play-in.  If the Clippers manage to lose, the Warriors (with a victory in Portland) stay in fifth.

So shortly after your chocolate bunnies tumble out of your Easter basket, the season will be over and all will be known. 

Down to the Wire

Update Wednesday night:  The Clippers victory over the Lakers moves them into fifth place, with the Warriors in 6th (the Clippers like nearly everyone else own the tiebreaker.)  New Orleans victory puts them just a game behind the Warriors, along with the Lakers--both of them with the tiebreakers.  Now the Warriors are masters of their fate in the sense that by winning their final two games they'll be in the playoffs.  According to sportswriters there are scenarios in which the Dubs could lock this up with a victory in Sacramento and other key team losses.  

Whichever way, the victory at Sacramento is necessary, barring some crazy combination of certain other teams' losses in the final two games.  However, Sacramento is still playing for second seed, so tomorrow will be hard-fought.  

An additional source of difficulty for the Dubs may well be the King's new coach Mike Brown, who just last year was assistant coach for the Warriors.  He knows their sets, both offense and defense.  He knows how Kerr coaches.  Of course, some of this knowledge goes both ways, but it adds another dimension to this game.

Coach Kerr confirmed that Andrew Wiggins will not play in Sacramento (or in Portland.)  Klay Thompson's status is unknown and probably will be until game time. 

original post:

By coming back to defeat Oklahoma City, the shorthanded Warriors moved into fifth place, though that won't last through the night.  Unless there's a last minute injury or strain from their overtime win, I fully expect the Lakers to defeat the Clippers tonight, which (because of tiebreakers) would vault them into fifth place in the Western Conference, and send the Warriors down to sixth.  If the Clippers win, they go to fifth place.  This will make the Warriors visit to Sacramento the most consequential game of the regular season.  It seems unlikely they could avoid the play-in if they lose.  It will be a tough game, another big test.

Surprisingly, media sentiment today seems to be that the Warriors are poised for a serious run in the playoffs.  If they get to the finals, they would be the first team to do so that didn't have home court in a single previous playoff series.  

Coach Kerr is sounding confident, but then he has to, if they have any chance.  However, another story suggests the core players are concerned about the bench and their inconsistency.  They haven't cohered. I hope somebody remembers how well they played when Klay Thompson asserted leadership in the absence of Steph and Dray.   

End of the Road

Sooner or later, the road will end: the road of this once promising season for the Golden State Warriors, and the road of this championship-level team.  Sad to say, current signs point to it being sooner rather than later. 

There are still three games to go, and a playoff season ahead, but despite the imminent return of Andrew Wiggins, there may not be too many more games for this team as currently constituted.  Beyond this season, contracts and the new league agreement portend storm clouds ahead, especially if this season ends as badly as it looks like it could.

The Warriors have been saying for weeks that they understand the situation, that they know how to accelerate into playoff mode.  But they've made it hard to believe.  The Denver game may have been the final straw.  The Warriors once again got away with playing well for little more than a quarter to defeat San Antonio, but in Denver they faced a team without its dominant star, and lost.  Moreover they blew a 15 point lead in doing so.  This time there were blunt words.  Coach Kerr said they essentially stopped playing for most of the second half.  Steph Curry said bluntly that they could not expect to win a championship doing what they did in Denver.  

They may not even get the chance.  Though the bottom of the conference is still essentially tied, the Warriors could win out--which by this time seems unlikely--and still find themselves in the play-in.  That's partly because the Warriors have lost tiebreakers to just about everybody.  They have to win and pray others lose.  I don't think the Lakers will lose.  Right now they have the momentum to take the 6th seed or higher.

The problems multiply themselves.  Knowing how essential these games are, the Warriors are still not playing high quality basketball for an entire game.  They can't survive the playoffs that way.  The idea that they can just turn it on in the playoffs by this time may be a cruel fantasy.  Their confidence has to be waning while the confidence of their opponents grows.  Do they really believe they can do it?  For those of us outside, there's a lot of room for doubt, and the Denver game added to it.

Those with tickets to the last home game or can afford to buy a seat, as well as attendees at any later game in the play-in or the play-off, should savor the moment to celebrate this team.  Financially as well as whatever else is going on, it seems unlikely these players will assemble together again next year.  I hope I'm wrong.

This year began with high hopes, not only for the season but for the future.  The Warriors seemed to have a championship present with the pieces of a championship future.  Now it all may fall to pieces.

I hope they're still playing in June, and that the road ends with another banner, and impetus to retain this team next year.  But even in this flawed conference, I'm afraid that how they've played all year, lurching from crisis to crisis, with great individual achievements but only flashes of cohesiveness, is catching up with them in early April.

The Stretch

 The Golden State Warriors play five more games in the regular season, and the playoffs are still in doubt. In their first two home games of the current three game stand, they lost a very important game to Minnesota, and won a crucial game against New Orleans, both games affecting the standings in this preposterously tight Western Conference, from the four seed on down.  

In this stretch run, the Warriors will likely need to win most of the remaining games to make the playoffs outright.  How many they can lose and still avoid a play-in game is unknowable.  Which makes everything unknowable with this enigmatic team.  Normally you could pre-pencil in a W against San Antonio, with the second worst record in the conference, in Friday's home game.  But these Warriors have made too much of a habit of losing focus with lesser teams, and they are coming off two home games in which they played two, maybe 3 good quarters (which includes the amazing second half against New Orleans when they came from 17 back to win by double digits.)  

They then travel to Denver, which normally would be a tough game, except Denver may not play its stars with nothing at stake--except the chance to keep Golden State out of the playoffs, a major motivation.  So, yes, probably a tough game--about the toughest left.

Then immediately back home to play Oklahoma City, which is currently 2 games out of the playoffs--and could be closer by then.  Then back on the road to Sacramento, currently the 3 seed within striking distance of second seed.  Depending on how things go for them in the intervening games, they may have something to play for.  Then their final game at Portland, which may or may not mean something by then.  At this moment, with five games to go, it seems unlikely Portland will be playing for better position, and the seeding may be settled by then--though I wouldn't bet on it.

Though the Warriors don't play either of the LA teams again, what the Clippers and the Lakers do in the next five games may also play a big role in how the Dubs' season ends.  The Lakers seem ascendant, but the Clippers are almost as much of a puzzle as the Warriors.

Especially with individual brilliance, the Warriors have provided thrills as well as chills this year but stability has not been one of their virtues. Maybe we'll never know what happened this season--mental fatigue, distraction, internal tensions, complacency, whatever.  All I know is that coach Steve Kerr looks like he's aged 10 years since October. We keep hearing about the championship Warriors turning the corner, but even with that great half against New Orleans, I'm not convinced they have.  And they are running out of street. 

Looking Better

 Despite impressive home wins against Milwaukee and Phoenix, things looked really glum when the Golden State Warriors began their recent road trip by managing to lose to the Clippers despite Steph Curry's 50 points.  Curry scored another 31 in their next game, a loss in Atlanta, and Coach Steve Kerr praised their effort, and said he was basically happy with the way the Warriors were playing.  After their next game, a loss in Memphis, he said they'd played hard and well again, despite the loss.  Something good is coming for this team, he said, and soon. 

 They had two more road games.  They beat Houston, among the least consistent teams in the league, and Curry scored 30, but Kerr said ironically he liked their effort better in the games they lost.  Then they went to Dallas when both teams were jockeying for the sixth seed and the chance to play in the playoffs.  They won there, more decisively than the final score indicated.  Then they came home, faced one of the hottest team in the NBA with this year's likely MVP who scored 46 points--but with a fourth quarter barrage and their defensive effort throughout the game perhaps finally wearing out Joel Embid, they won.  

Good things came.  Keep them coming.

At this point the Warriors have a game and a half security in 6th place, and are only a half game out of fourth.  Dallas has faded but the Lakers are coming on, and those Warriors losses in LA could still loom large. But it is definitely looking better for the Warriors getting into the playoffs, and it's starting to look like they are getting ready.  

Next they have three games at home against Minnesota, New Orleans and San Antonio, which should be three wins, unless they lose concentration against weaker opponents as they've been prone to do.  Their last home opponent is OKC, a team that is still battling for playoff position.  They have three road games, none of them really easy, against Denver, Sacramento and Portland.  Assuming they can keep their 6th seed or improve it, they'll be tuning up against playoff teams Denver and Sacramento.

With Gary Payton II coming back soon, the combination of Poole and Vincenzo may help to make up for the missing Andrew Wiggins.  The sports commentators this past week have been agreeing with each other that the Warriors can't get far in the playoffs without Wiggins, since he was their second best player in last year's.  They aren't considering however that Klay Thompson, usually their second best player, has worked his way back this year.  While the team with the healthiest stars certainly has the advantage, most teams right now have at least one star ailing.  

The Warrior veterans know the score: that in the West this year, it's anybody's championship. They are probably eyeing the Grizzlies as their most difficult foe, but might have to figure how to beat Anthony Davis and the Lakers.  Then there are at least three very strong teams in the East, any of which might emerge.  But that's months away.  Right now every game means something. 

Not Looking Good

 After winning five straight at home, the Golden State Warriors lost three straight on the road, the last two by double digits.  The desperation to win on the road led Coach Kerr to try out a four guard lineup, which failed to generate enough offense to offset its defensive deficiencies.  Part of the reason he did this was perhaps that Jonathan Kuminga was suddenly unavailable due to a warmup injury.    

Now the Dubs come back home to face the Milwaukee Bucks, who bring the best winning percentage in the NBA and are hungry for another championship.  The Warriors will be without Kuminga and Anthony Lamb (because his allowed number of games is up until they sign him to the roster) as well as Andrew Wiggns and Gary Payton II.  Without JK and Lamb and with an overworked and hobbling Looney, the Warriors are nearly defenseless at the rim--except for Draymond, who might be taken away from other responsibilities.  This game will require major heroics.

Including this game, the Warriors have only seven games left at home. The next is with Phoenix (though Kevin Durant is injured.)  The next four are after a five game road trip, and the last one is against Oklahoma between a road game in Denver and road games at Sacramento and Portland.  This is not an easy schedule even in better times.

No one can predict where the Warriors will end up, given the big uncertainties of West teams.  As usual this time of year, every team's fate hinges on injuries (though teams have been winning without key players somehow) and momentum (some of which the Clippers have regained.)  But it's not looking good for Golden State.  It seems the best they can hope for is a low seed which eliminates home court throughout the playoffs.  This is not good news for one of the NBA's worst road teams.

This year is looking like it's fated.  Klay Thompson and Steph Curry are having career years, as is Draymond, and Jonathan Kuminga is emerging in a big way, there's no obvious bad player, and still the Warriors are not only losing but being humiliated.  Management decisions backfiring as they haven't before, injuries at crucial times, a starter's extended and indefinite absence, and who knows what else is going on with this team.  There have been too many resets, too many declarations that they know what's wrong and it's time to fix it, followed by too many badly played games with the same absence of fundamentals.  Is it really just a matter of concentration and effort?  A team that proves it is capable of superior defense and smart offense at home, looks incapable of consistency of either on the road--something weird about that, at least to someone who isn't playing the game.   But once again it's not over yet and there may be thrills ahead.

Stretch

 Downs and ups.  Ups and downs.  ("He bounces it he bounces it he bounces it.")

The All-Star break was the time to renew and regroup and focus, everyone connected with the Golden State Warriors said.  Then their first game back in Los Angeles they looked lost, and they did lose, to the Lakers, without LeBron.  Things looked grim.  Steph Curry was out for another week or so, Andrew Wiggins was out indefinitely due to an undisclosed family crisis, so the Dubs went into a crucial 5 game home stand without two of their starters, and their veteran reserves--Andre Iguodala and Gary Payton II--injured and unavailable. 

But the new lineup suddenly jelled, Klay Thompson became the transcendent force that Steph had been, and they won all five, moving up several notches in the standings, with not only the playoffs but home court in sight.  And then Curry and Iguodala returned!

And they lost to the LeBronless Lakers again, again in Los Angeles.  And lost Anthony Lamb, a key player in the streak, for this crucial road trip, before they return to face the top teams of the West and the East. (They are expected to sign him for the last roster spot, however.)

The good news, everyone said, was that Curry looked great in his first game back.  Curry always looks great in his first game back, and then has a less great game or two before he attains consistency.  There is the further question of whether the chemistry attained in the home stand can be revived--in other words, the Warriors can win without him, but can they win with him?  That seems a heretical question, or at least a dumb one.  But maybe reestablishing that chemistry isn't automatic.  Maybe a key to their streak was Kuminga, Poole and DiVincenzo starting and getting heavy minutes.

Statistically the bigger problem is that the Warriors have a top winning record at home, and a bottom scraping record on the road--and of their remaining games, only six are at home (including the division leaders Denver and the Bucks) and eleven on the road.  Is this in fact a bigger problem?  Only if the team psyches itself out.  A team with the Warriors' talent pool and game-specific coaching that has that chemistry and flow--that defends, rebounds, and doesn't foul, and on offense takes care of the ball and moves it to the best shot on offense, is going to win anywhere.   

Even at this stage in the season, the division is dynamic.  The Clippers are in trouble if they don't right their ship; on the other hand, Phoenix is likely to win a higher percentage of games with Kevin Durant.  So nobody knows what can happen.  The Warriors might even sneak into the playoffs with a .500 percentage from the end of their recent home stand.  But every win in the regular season eases their tasks in the playoffs, should they get there.  Maybe it won't matter, but I can't help feeling this latest and last loss to the Lakers is going to hurt.

Anyway, the home stand was fun at least, even if things get tense from here on out.

Dubs 2023: A New Season or Not Our Year?

 

The Golden State Warriors entered the All Star break with exactly as many losses as wins in the current 2022-3 season.  The question now is whether they have set the pattern for the rest of the year, or whether they come back from break with their season at 0-0.

Injuries to Steph Curry and now to their latest re-acquisition, Gary Payton, Jr., mean their team isn't whole for at least several weeks.  That the Warriors decided to go through with the trade once they knew that Payton's injury was covered up by Portland and he might miss a significant part of this season, suggests they've given up a little on this year.  They did not improve through trades, as did the Suns, Mavericks, Lakers and probably others in the West.  They might still score a free agent in the buyout market and improve that way.

In retrospect, the Warrior brass made a mistake in letting Payton go, and now that he's won the dunk contest in spectacular fashion, perhaps in letting Mac McClung go as well.  There may be questions ahead on why the team couldn't utilize James Wiseman's talents, as they become evident in Detroit.

But all that could be water under the bridge if the Dubs come out of the break as the team that the organization thought it had, the one with championship skills and championship DNA. If the angst and injuries of the season so far add up to lessons learned and skills mastered (and Steph always comes out with renewed energy after injury) then they will be forgotten. On the other hand, if Draymond and others are right, that their current mediocrity (a word that more than one sports writer has used recently) is partly psychological rather than due to lack of physical and mental skills (especially on defense), the repeated experience of getting beaten in the fourth quarter can be wounding and therefore a self-fulfilling prophesy, a pattern to be repeated.  Other teams now believe the Dubs can be beaten, even if they fall behind.  The question is, do the Dubs believe they can win?  

NBA and NFL Bay City Blues

  Traditionally, an NBA player who is on the trading block doesn't play the game before the deadline.  Gary Payton II not only played for Portland against the Golden State Warriors, he sank the foul shots that beat them.

Hours after the game however, Payton was on his way back to Golden State, to provide a defensive presence.  The Portland game suggests why: J. Poole scored 38, Klay scored 31, Andrew Wiggins scored 18 and two others also scored double digits, and they still lost.  

The Dubs sacrificed a potential future with James Wiseman (though really, who is to say he can't wind up back someday) for help today.  (Wiseman wasn't helping because he wasn't playing.)  Still, with this likely improvement in the roster, the rest of the late trades dramatically changed the landscape in the Western Conference, and not to the Warriors' benefit.

Up to this week, the West was up for grabs.  Even a team with a wobbly purchase on more wins and losses was (and in fact, is) only a winning streak away from contention.  The challenge was going to come from the East, especially if Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant were healthy and sane enough to play together for the Brooklyn Nets.

But the Nets traded away both Irving and Durant, and probably traded themselves out of contention this year.  Boston stayed pat and Milwaukee may have improved, so those two teams are still formidable. But now the West may no longer be the easier challenge.

Kyrie went to Dallas, where in theory he complements superstar Jocic.  They began bragging that suddenly they are the favorites.  That lasted not even a week, before Kevin Durant was traded to Phoenix, and the Suns, with none of their major pieces traded away, become the favorites.  Both become significant challenges to a Warriors team that has all that talent and pedigree, but isn't beating even the lesser teams in the conference, like Portland. 

There are a lot of caveats here.  Durant is expected back from injury after the All-Star break, but there are no guarantees yet on his bouncing back quickly, or the chemistry of the team.  Chemistry could be even more of a problem in Dallas over the long run, even this season.  But especially in the Phoenix case, that's this year.  In the long run it would be strange if they aren't a championship contender in the West.

Similarly, the buzz in Dubland is that Payton is what the doctor ordered, and he may be--not only for his defensive and offensive skills but for chemistry.  But he is not likely to be the total answer.  He isn't the defensive answer against everybody the Dubs will face--the rest of the team has to find a defensive presence.  The other problems the Warriors have, even though they know what they are and keep talking about them, have not consistently improved: turnovers, poor rebounding and too many fouls, and too many dumb fourth quarter plays.

The Warriors are a real mystery.  Individually their stars are having great years.  But as a team they aren't there.  If post-championship run fatigue were to be a factor, where would you expect to see it?  How about turnovers, poor rebounding, too many fouls, and lack of defense?  And lapses in concentration in the fourth quarter?

Certainly health has been a factor, but it was last year as well, and that team won more games, and didn't give away so many games.  The Warriors used to win a lot of games in the third quarter, when their smothering defense and high-octane offense not only ballooned the score, but demoralized opponents who had to drag themselves through the fourth quarter.  Not this year.  The Warriors have lost so many games in the fourth that every team believes it can win if it pours it on at the end of the game.   

Whether the challenge of playing these improved teams will awaken the Warriors to exceed their 2023 selves remains to be seen, but it will be the story of the remainder of this season.  With possibly more than this year at stake.

My Latest NFL Rant

I've said this before but it continues to be true: it's getting harder and harder for me to care about NFL football.  In fact, though I still follow it to some extent, and I'll watch the highlights of certain games, I certainly don't care about it as much as I used to.

The reason is the institutionalization of unnecessary brutality.  Not just the failure to adopt measures to really address the frequency and extent of concussions, but the emphasis in the league and in the media on the most brutal aspects of the game.  A textbook case for me was the Eagles and Niners game.

Niners quarterback Brock Purdy was seriously injured with a play that used to be illegal in the NFL--he was hit in the act of throwing.  His elbow injury may have been freakish, but he should not have been hit.  And why am I the only person I know of who is saying this?

Then his poor substitute gets brutally thrown to the ground and concussed.  It will take Purdy from six months to a year to recover, and nobody seems concerned about the other guy and what he may have to go through for the rest of his life.  This is how the Eagles won the game.  They eliminated the Niners only quarterbacks (and what NFL team goes into a championship game with only two quarterbacks?  Especially in this environment.)  And this is football?  This is a sport?  What's next--the right to bear arms on the field?  

Last Chance for These Dubs?

 There's no shortage of candidates for the Golden State Warriors most humiliating loss of the season so far, but the blown lead against a Kevin-less New Jersey Nets to make four home losses in a row is a pretty disquieting one.  Every time it seems this team has turned the corner toward consistency, it reverts.  It is a talented team top to bottom except for one problem: it isn't winning, especially games it really should win.

We're reminded that the Boston Celtics were 25-25 around this time last year, and went on to the Finals.  So hope is not lost, but it is getting harder to come by.  Coach Kerr has preached patience, until he changed the starting lineup in something close to desperation.  And that's not really working either.

In situations like this, the next step is to change the team by exchanging players.  That may yet happen this year, but if this season continues this way, it will certainly happen next year.  The baffling thing is that this team has a championship core that is generally playing at a high level, and the young bench players are all showing flashes and more than flashes of brilliance.  After all the Dubs pulled off an unexpected road win against Cleveland with only one regular starter.  This team should work.  So far it isn't.  A month or so ago some commentator uttered the doleful words, they aren't good enough.  And yesterday Coach Kerr repeated them.  Either this team responds immediately with a string of wins, or that message gets in their heads, if it isn't there already.

The sad thing is that changing personnel on this team is unlikely to make things better next year.  With Draymond Green believing he'll be gone in a year or two, the Dubs will be in rebuilding mode if that happens.  The effect of this current pattern of at best a .500 season is the sinking feeling that this core may well have had its final championship together last year.

It happens.  It happened to the dynastic San Francisco Giants in the middle of a season--they went from best in the first half to worst in the second (when especially they couldn't hold leads) and that was the end of championship contention for that team, though fans saw flashes of brilliance for years afterwards.  

There is still time for the Warriors to get right (Kuminga's monster game against Brooklyn is the most prominent of many good signs)--but not a lot of time. If this is primarily a psych thing, it may not happen in time. But if they make a run and get deep in the playoffs, we could see this team again at least for one more year--an exciting prospect, with a year's experience for the younger players plus the vets.  If they don't, who knows?  

Meanwhile San Francisco football fans hold their breaths until Christian McCaffrey and all the running backs get clean bills of health.  The Niners would have a hard time against Philly in the championship round without a full complement of runners to generate their ground game.  

An Interesting Season

 The Golden State Warriors lost some apparently key off-the-bench players from their championship team, and combined with maybe some mental fatigue or hangover from their long season, they've been a team in process of finding itself.  

In December they made progress in that process.  When the starters leave the floor, they no longer typically face climbing out of a hole dug by the bench players when they return.  Several things seem to have happened.  Coach Kerr started sending Draymond Green out with the rotation players, and that had immediate positive effect.  Donte DiVincenzo has emerged as a sparkplug on defense and rebounding, and a playmaker on offense.  But it's the sudden improvement of Jonathan Kuminga that is most startling, especially on defense.  Earlier in the season, observers wrote that he looked lost on the court, and questioned his energy.  By mid-December he's becoming a trusted player on both sides of the ball.  He still has those flashes of brilliance, but he's added consistency, and his effort is no longer in doubt.

But consistency is still elusive for the team as a whole.  The Warriors went from a home loss to one of the weakest teams in the league and an abysmal loss on the road by blowing a lead in the last few seconds to another weaker team, to soundly defeating the Boston Celtics, the team with the best record in the NBA.  

Now they head out for a grueling six game road trip, with a couple back to backs, against good and very good teams.   Mostly teams in the East, and the Eastern Division has been far better so far this season than the West.  When the Warriors return home for a Christmas game, a lot more will be known about where this team stands.

The second half of the season should be very interesting.  Both the Brooklyn Nets and the LA Lakers, who looked pretty bad for most of the season so far, are stringing wins together in December.  Other top teams besides the Warriors have lost to weaker opponents.  Even the San Antonio Spurs have put together some wins.  Sacramento has emerged as a challenger in the West, at least early on.  But I'm watching what the sleeping giants, the Nets and Lakers do.  The Warriors may only have to get into the playoffs to challenge for another championship.  But they're going to have to do some winning even to do that.  It could be their patience will pay off in the coming months.  

Warrior Woes: Fixable or Fateful?

 Coach Steve Kerr's postgame press comments after losses in the wobbly start to the season for the Golden State Warriors tended to be reassuring variations of  "we'll work this out" and "we'll figure this out."  After last night's loss at Phoenix, which wasted a highly efficient 50 points by Steph Curry, and which at least one commentator called the team's worst performance of the season," Kerr was succinct and direct. "Steph played well, nobody else did."  

It wasn't a cohesive team effort, he said, but more of a pick-up game.  Again, the Warriors were overrun on defense, committed too many fouls and didn't rebound.  Teams look forward to playing the Warriors now, he said.  

Much of what Kerr identified can be seen as products of effort and concentration.   Players, Kerr implied, seemed to have things on their mind other than playing winning basketball.  These things are fixable.  Playing in the playoffs from beginning to end is like playing an extra half season, but at a sustained high level.  The roller coaster year that led to a championship, the summer of release, the increased off-court commitments and opportunities, the readjustments to normal life (and/or to new contracts)--all may play a part, even though the starting five is the still the standout unit of the league. 

Also fixable are the growing pains of the younger players, though every young player is a gamble that might or might not pay off, this year or any other.  These growing pains have been what many have pointed to, including Kerr and others associated with the Warriors, as the chief reason for the second unit problems of giving away leads.  Kerr said several times that he's still looking for the right configurations of players, the right rotations.

But there is concern that the woes being revealed aren't fixable with the Warriors' current roster.  Analysts with much deeper knowledge of the technicalities of defense in particular suggest that the team failed to compensate for the skills lost when Gary Payton II and Otto Porter, Jr. departed after the championships season.  Not just their experience or specific skills, but their physical size and abilities.

Time will tell, but this element of doubt is now part of the mix.

Wobbly Warriors at Season's Start

 The Golden State Warriors are off to a terrible start.  They have yet to win a road game, and lost five straight, all to what seemed to be inferior teams.  Though clearly the season is just starting, they are digging themselves an ever deeper hole.  Teams bring their A game to every contest with the league champions, and now they can believe they can win those games.  The psychological advantage is shifting away from the Warriors.

This at a time when the Warriors are actually healthy.  Steph Curry, Draymond Green and  Andrew Wiggins have started the season playing at a high level.  After a slow start, Jordan Poole had several superior offensive performances.  In that fifth loss, in which the starters were rested, bench players Jonathan Kuminga and Anthony Lamb had strong games, along with Ty Jerome and Moses Moody.  James Wiseman has shown signs.  All of that is hopeful, and this was an unusual stretch in which the Warriors played two back to backs on the road, including three games in four days.

Now they're coming home, with an unforeseen mountain to climb.

Good Moves Dubs

Turns out the Golden State Warriors know what they're doing.  They let a number of last season's key supporting players go on to more prominent roles on other teams, but made judicious choices to replace them on the roster.  The Warriors opened the new season with a convincing win over the Lakers, with solid contributions by 10 or 11 players.  

The Warriors now have the luxury (for which they are paying alot in luxury tax) of an established core of mostly veteran stars, plus a host of very young players with enormous potential.  Some may falter, but others may very well be stars in the future, and a couple might come close to that this season.

Coach Steve Kerr, who as a player and coach has been part of several teams that won multiple championships, including back-to-backs, said that a championship team with dynastic potential often gets better the year after a championship (it gets much harder after that.)  This makes perfect sense, for the teams that won their championship with a solid lineup, and not (as some have) as the result more of luck, including key injuries to their opponents.  

Every team needs luck to win the championship, but everyone knew that last year's Warriors were contenders.  Now they are champs, starting the season with all their starters healthy.  They may well prove to be a better team this year than last.  The league is highly competitive, but Golden State in a number of ways has proven to be the gold standard of the NBA. 

Bad Moves Dubs?

 The victory parade and Dub lovefest was barely over when the parade of players leaving town began.  Some of the exits were understandable.  Tuscano-Anderson was unlikely to get much playing time with Golden State, but he might elsewhere.  Otto Porter, Jr. has a limited time to get his payday--he seemed like a rental, though he became a valued teammate.  But Gary Payton II really hurt, as did the way it happened. Golden State wouldn't match Portland's higher offer, which wasn't really much higher.  Given everything else, it was nickels and dimes.  Payton II was a valued teammate, beloved by fans and very motivated to be a Dub forever.  His absence may hurt where it really hurts: on defense...At least the Warriors made sure to keep Kevon Looney.  

But the big bad move the Warriors haven't yet made is to empty the future for Kevin Durant.  Since Durant announced he wanted to be traded, there apparently have been feelers and contacts, at least among the players.  The story so far is that the Warrior main cast would welcome him back.  I wonder.  What seems clearer is that the fans may not, especially if it means losing players they are attached to.  Sure, it's all a business and teams change every year.  But why would the Dubs trade away their future for what could be a few years of Durant before he gets restless again?  I would have scoffed at the idea that management would go for this.  At least before they let Payton II get away.  For me, I've seen this show before.  My enthusiasm for following the Warriors would definitely lessen.

Fans and the Finals: Boston's Win One, Lose the Series

 There's a good case to be made that the third game of this year's NBA finals was won by the Boston Celtic fans in Boston Garden.  If that's so, there's an equally good case that the fourth and deciding sixth game of the series were lost by the Boston Celtic fans.

Many years ago I became fascinated by the theory of a little-known academic named Peter Senge about a mysterious process that happens especially in group situations that he called "alignment."  This concept was later re-branded by others as "flow."  Now everyone knows (more or less) what flow is--a state of hyper-awareness, almost unconscious efficiency at speed, when everything works beautifully.  (Senge had better luck in branding when he came up with "The Fifth Discipline," that sold a lot of books etc.)  One of Senge's examples of alignment was what sometimes happened in a basketball game.  I was especially intrigued by the idea that it sometimes was felt by both teams.

Today the coaches and players talk often of the flow of the game, of being in rhythm, of playing with force, etc.  Momentum is recognized as a reality, and teams go through periods when they score in bunches (or runs) while the other team suddenly can't defend, or an efficient offense suddenly gets out of synch and seems to fall apart.

Also recognized is the role of the fans in the building.  There are a number of reasons that home games provide advantages to the home team, and the fans are often a big one.  Their enthusiasm inspires energy and effort.  The home team can ride on the waves they create, and interact with that enthusiasm, making it greater with great plays.  

What is less obvious, partly because until recently it has been much less prevalent, is the negative vibes--the virulence up to the edge of violence--of home fans against the away team.  How it can work, and then quickly backfire, was demonstrated in Boston.

Golden State fans are enthusiastic for their team, and as the fans in many other arenas, they may boo the other side but basically treat them respectfully.  It's an aspect of self-respect, and of the culture.  But Boston is one of those places with a different culture, and they took it up a notch in the first game of the finals to be played at Boston Garden: game 3.

With loud and repeated chants of "fuck you, Draymond," they set a new standard for viciousness and hate in what is supposed to be a sports contest, an aspect of entertainment.  That Boston has been known as a bastion for racism in several decades of the 20th century, made this even more portentous and ugly.

It seems doubtful to me that this encouraged the home town team very much.  But in this case it did rattle the visitors.  Everyone on the close-knit Warriors team was acutely aware of the presence of Draymond Green's child or children, his family, and the other children in the building.  Green's game fell apart.  The Warriors fell out of alignment.  Then Draymond heard Steph Curry scream in pain when a larger Celtic fell across his foot and ankle when they were on the floor grasping for a loose ball--exactly the same circumstance by which another Celtic injured Curry's foot during the regular season, causing him to miss several weeks of games.  At that point Draymond lost it entirely.  The Warriors lost the game, and were down 2-1 in the series.  They would be returning to this court after just one day off for the now-crucial fourth game.

In their interviews between games the Warriors players and coaches seemed calm.  Curry talked easily of his ten hours of sleep and his physical therapy on his foot.  When Curry tested that foot with  a three late in the first quarter, and nailed it, he cried out in triumph.  The emotions hidden from the cameras and microphones started to come out on the floor.  

Curry had a game that former teammate Kevin Durant called "iconic."  Curry scored 43 points in 41 minutes.  He had 7 threes, four assists and--incredibly--10 rebounds.  He dominated the scoring by causing defensive havoc in how he hit from everywhere.  But other Warriors also played an inspired game, especially in dominating the boards.  Andrew Wiggins had 17 points--and 16 rebounds.  Kevon Looney had 11, Draymond had 10.  Klay Thompson chipped in 18 points, hitting key buckets and playing some crucial defense in crunch time.   Jordan Poole led the bench that together added 25 points. 

Later Draymond said he was sure that part of Curry's obviously emotional game was in response to the ugly chants and behavior of the Boston fans the night before.  In retrospect, it seems that motivation was there for the entire team.

After a home victory in the fifth game, the Warriors were in the driver's seat.  They could afford to lose the sixth game in Boston and win it all before their own fans at home.  But that seems never to have been an option.  From Coach Kerr to the players, they wanted to win the sixth game not only because anything can happen in 7th games, but because it was in Boston.  They wanted to silence those fans.  And by the end of the first quarter they did.  Many of those rabid Celtic fans were on their way home before the game was nearly over.

The Warriors' response to those chants created an intensity by which they created their own flow.  The silence was as good as cheers.  It unleashed emotion that continued long after the game was over.  Golden State had figured out the Celtics team.  But they were playing to defeat the haters in the Celtics' stands.

The State of Golden

 In the fifth game of the finals, the Golden State Warriors did what they had to do: when Boston concentrated on stopping Steph Curry, other shooters stepped up, particularly Andrew Wiggins.  Klay Thompson and J. Poole had good games. Draymond Green returned to form, especially on offense.  But the difference for the Warriors was defense. That's where they made the adjustments, to which the Celtics had no answer.  Gary Payton II strengthened the defense in the last several games, but it was really a team effort.  Golden State used quick hands and positioning to make up for their apparent deficiencies.

After this victory, the Warriors were very confident about game six.  Coach Steve Kerr guided them to closing out the series in this game in Boston. They were focused on it.

After the Dubs were down 2 games to 1, Klay Thompson said he was getting 2015 vibes.  That was the first championship year, when the Warriors came back from a 2-1 deficit to win the series in six games with three straight victories.  That's exactly what they did again in 2022.  In 2015, the difference was largely Andre Iguodala, on offense and defense, reflected in his MVP trophy in that series.  It seemed pretty clear after the fifth game in that series that the Warriors were going to win in six.  In 2022 there was no easily named difference-maker in these last several games, but the scores were remarkably similar--the Warriors were in the low 100s, the Celtics in the low 90s.   It was team defense, plus several of the new Warriors--like Wiggins and Poole--figuring out the Celtic defense.  And of course, the sustained brilliance of Steph Curry.

In fact, the Warriors seemed so confident and the media so unanimous in predicting a 6th game victory that it was all set up for Boston to come roaring back.  The pundits may not have known anything, but the Warriors did. Boston came fast out of the gate but by the beginning of the second quarter, Golden State turned 21 unanswered points into a lead that grew to be insurmountable pretty early.  The struggles of the past three years came flooding into Curry's consciousness, so that he was in tears and may have actually blacked out in the closing moments.  

This year, Steph Curry set the all-time career record for 3s, won the MVP for the All-Star Game and the Western Conference Finals, and was the unanimous choice for MVP of the Finals.  The Warriors won its fourth championship in eight years, with the same core players--Steph, Klay and Draymond--who together with Andre I. had been together at Golden State for a decade. 

After the series was over, one player after another--starting with Andrew Wiggin--said they absolutely wanted to return to the Warriors.  Kerr was about to lose two of his assistant coaches to head coaching jobs elsewhere, but at the last second, one of them decided he was better off being an assistant at Golden State.  That speaks to the team and the culture. The closeness of the players, the mentorships of the veterans and the example of hard work and unselfish play, along with management's commitment to shared responsibility and complete support, with an eye to the long game--those are some of the components of that culture. Steph Curry is its embodiment. The team culture was the bedrock upon which these championships were built.  They'll have a parade tomorrow, and soon enough will be getting ready to go for more.

Finals Fifth Game Preview

  Depending on circumstances, there can be several crucial games for one team or the other in an NBA playoff series, especially the Finals.  But particularly in a 2-2 series, the fifth game is nearly always decisive.  The winner of the fifth game most often goes on to win the championship.

 The Warriors and Celtics are tied 2-2.  Each has won a home game and a game away. By winning the fourth game, the Warriors reestablished home court advantage: the 5^th and (if needed) 7^th game will be played on the Golden State court.

 But Boston has established a pattern in the playoffs of alternating between wins and losses regardless of the court, and not losing two in a row.  Since they won the first game of this series, they can win the championship without winning two games in a row.

 A Finals series is often about game-to-game adjustments, which also factor in this series.  Those adjustments, sometimes reflected in decisions during the game, depend on the coaches.  So far Steve Kerr has been outcoached in the third game, arguably the first as well, but outcoached Boston in the fourth game decisively.

 By the fifth game however, the teams and the coaches know a lot more about their opponent.  We won’t know what they learned until it is reflected in game outcome. Sometimes an adjustment even this late is decisive.  But the options are often more limited.

 So what about this fifth game?  Boston has been unable to defend Steph Curry for an entire game—it’s possible they will do something more radical to keep Curry from operating with the ball, and dare the rest of the Warriors to beat them.  But even though Steph got the major praise for carrying the team to a fourth game victory—often said to be his best Finals game ever—there were other good signs for the Warriors.  

Both Andrew Wiggins and J. Poole showed signs of figuring out the Boston defense.  Wiggins was outstanding at rebounding, and Looney had another solid game.  And in a very good sign, Klay Thompson played really good defense in the fourth quarter, and had the afterburners to make shots down the stretch. And Bjelica, one of the Warriors who hasn’t played much in the series, showed he can defend Boston's star Tatum.

 Fan exuberance is one thing, but the Warriors can’t go into the fifth game taking for granted they will win because they are at home, or because Steph Curry is having a brilliant series.  But apart from that, the Warriors have some momentum. Draymond Green is due to relax into a consistent game on both sides of the court. The Warriors who aren’t Steph—especially those who showed signs in the fourth game-- are ready to show their appreciation to him by being brilliant in game 5.  The Warriors will have to win two games in a row at some point to win the series.  This would be a good time to do it.

 On the other side, Boston’s Jason Tatum and J. Brown are capable of breakout games, and have had them in the playoffs.  They will likely be the keys for Boston in the fifth game.  Tatum in particular will want to slap down the Steph as MVP narrative that continued in the days after game 4.

 Another possible key: Boston’s center Robert Williams, coming back from injury and making a defensive difference, tweaked a knee and left the fourth game early.  He may or may not play in the fifth game, and may or may not be effective.  That could be huge for the Warriors getting to the basket.

 There are any number of ways this game could go. Neither team will win the series outright with a victory in the fifth game, and these two teams in particular break more rules than they follow.  But the loser will likely find a very hard road ahead.

The Epic Warriors, the Warriors' Epic

 

In winning the Western Conference Finals at home in the fifth game, the Golden State Warriors displayed all aspects of their team character and their particular style or game.  So now before the Finals start--even before their opponent is known (the East series is going to a 7th game) there's time to reflect on their epic journey--and I use that word "epic" for a reason.

In post-game interviews, Warriors' players and Coach Kerr all knew the story. Three seasons ago, on the brink of winning their third championship in a row, with their finals' star Kevin Durant coming back dramatically from injury, the story took a sudden, Greek drama turn.  Durant suffered an even more serious injury and was out for the decisive games.  But in the sixth game, Klay Thompson rose to the occasion and was driving the Dubs to victory--when he fell to a serious injury, and did not return.  The Warriors were spared a 7th game blowout when Steph Curry missed a 3 point shot at the end of the game.

Then Kevin Durant decided not to return to Golden State.  Then after recovery and rehab from his injury, Klay Thompson suffered an even more serious injury.  Then Steph Curry broke his hand.  The odds against all this happening in this way are so astronomical that it qualifies as a weird kind of fate.

Then the Warriors made it through their worst season, leading the league in losses when just a few years earlier they'd led it in wins.  Then after more personnel changes they struggled through another Covid year, but started to jell in the last 20 games.  In another year, they might have squeaked into the playoffs but the league was trying out a new "play-in" system, and they lost those play-in games.  (Oddly, something similar would happen to the baseball San Francisco Giants.)

All through this the Golden State team culture was tested but held together.  Individuals (Klay, Draymond, and surely others who don't talk about it) had their doubts, about the team, about themselves.  Dark nights of the soul. 

 Klay Thompson, universally popular among fans and NBA players and the media, slowly worked his way back.  When he returned this year, Draymond Green was already injured and would be out for weeks.  When Green came back, Steph Curry was injured in a game with Boston on a play that Coach Kerr thought was questionable.  For awhile it looked as if the struggle to get to the playoffs might come up short.  But then the team started winning, and at the very end, the core players--Steph, Draymond and Klay--were on the court together, not just for the first playing time this season, but the first time in over two years.

They discovered themselves in the playoffs--that is, the team that is now, with the new arrangement of castoff veterans and young players, including two not yet twenty years old.  One virtue of the fractured year or two was that a lot of players got to play.  They learned, and the coaches learned about them.  In these playoffs, several of them were the difference in specific games, and all of them were important to final victory.  But several of them were also lost to injury from one series to the next, so other players had to step up--either starters like Kevon Looney and Andrew Wiggins--or other young players who hadn't had many minutes.

So now, after all that, the Golden State Warriors are back in the finals for the sixth time in eight years.  The style they play now based on their personnel is as much fun to watch as their 2015 and 16 teams. But their game of those years, which changed the NBA (so they now face teams that take more 3 point shots than they do) has itself changed, become even more dynamic.  

This climb, this return, this redemption, at this level is our version of the epics of heroes that support the cultures of the world.  They may not be those kinds of heroes exactly (though they serve important social and cultural functions; for it was Steve Kerr, after all, who made the most watched, most passionate statement on the Texas school shooting nightmare, over any political figure) but this epic story also has the virtue of being true.

Either East opponent looks formidable, particularly the Boston Celtics, with their bullying style.  But the Warriors have momentum (and will be more rested) and they may well be the healthiest all year--all the players who missed games in the playoffs could well be available for the finals.  They seem to be peaking as a team.  And they will have home court.

But even if they don't win the championship, this season is already a success--an epic story, and for a change, a heartening one.

On Their Way

 With three victories in the first three games in the Western Conference Finals, the Golden State Warriors are discovering themselves as a team of championship potential.  They have neutralized the Mavericks' advantages and are playing at a tempo and with an intensity that matches the moment.  They dominated the first game with offense and rebounding.  They came from 19 points behind in the second game with smothering defense and offense at the basket.  

By the time they got to Dallas, they were imposing their will.  The Mavericks tried to win the second half of the second game with the sharpshooting of 3s that won the first half, but couldn't do it.  So for the third game, the first at home, they were determined to go inside more.  But that didn't work either.  The very impressive Luka Doncic could get 40 points a game, but the Warriors were just disruptive enough--and rebounding those misses--to get their offense going at their own pace.  If Dallas came out to stop 3s, they went inside.  If they clogged up the basket area, they shot threes.

Kevon Looney was the rebounding hero of the closeout game against the Grizzlies, and had a career high 21 points in the second game against Dallas.  In the third game Andrew Wiggins added to his stellar defense on Doncic a big night on offense, with 27 points and the monster dunk of the playoffs.  Both got player of the game honors, but the thread of excellence that runs through these three games is Stephan Curry, now very likely to receive the first conference finals MVP.

Perhaps the most heartening stat for Warriors fans in the third game was only 10 turnovers, their one conspicuous vulnerability.  The Warriors are 3-0 in this series, without spectacular games from Klay Thompson or Poole (yet both hit key shots.) Either of them can explode at any time.  The Mavs have no big man answer, and Looney is dominant on the defensive end.  

While a sweep is likely, and no more than a five game series very likely, the Eastern Conference Finals look very much like they could go 7 or at least 6.  Both Miami and Boston have already won a game on the road, so home court may not be much of a factor.  It looks like it's game by game.

Warriors Advance

 The Golden State Warriors won their second round playoff series against Memphis in six games.  They had taken a 3-1 lead into the fifth game at Memphis and were blown out.  Coach Steve Kerr, who was out with Covid, told the team not to chase a victory in the fifth game--just execute the game plan.  They did neither, but they definitely chased a victory at home in the sixth game, with the first team playing more minutes than ever before.  They did not want to return to Memphis.  It took heroic games by Klay Thompson and especially Kevon Looney, and a fourth quarter run led by Steph to put it away.

The Grizzlies had embarrassed themselves by charging without any foundation that a Warrior player had caused the injury of their young star, Ja Morant.  Then the same Memphis player who had been suspended for a game for his flagrant 2 chop of a defenseless Gary Payton, breaking his elbow, committed another blatant flagrant foul in the sixth game, flinging Steph Curry to the floor.  If the NBA becomes any more like the NFL, it will ruin the game of basketball.

Now Golden State plays in the Western Conference Finals against a very tough Dallas team, that combined smothering defense and flashy offense to bury the Phoenix Suns, the team with the best season record, at Phoenix in the seventh game of their series.  Late in the game Dallas led by more than 40 points, and at halftime led by almost 50.  

The Warriors have the significant advantage of home court, but it's only a strategic advantage if you keep it.  As usual, the first game on Wednesday is very important.

The other seventh game on Sunday was another shocking beatdown: the Boston Celtics humiliated last year's champion Milwaukee.  The Celtics have to survive another series, but they seem to me to be the Warrior's most formidable potential opponent.  That is, if they get past their actual opponent of Dallas, and I'd say that's even money right now.  This Warriors team is still discovering itself.

War on the Warriors

 Remember basketball?  It can be a beautiful game, especially as the Golden State Warriors play it.  What happened in Memphis in the second game of the playoffs' second round was not basketball.  It was the Memphis team (and their fans) going to war.

I don't for a minute buy the description of the attack on Gary Payton II that resulted in a serious injury that takes him out of the playoffs as "not intentional," or the elbow that bloodied Draymond Green and closed one eye for days as "inadvertent," any more than were the punches to Steph Curry.  Hitting Payton in a defenseless moment, who just happened to be the primary defender on the Grizzlies' top scorer, ending his ability to play in the series, sure, that was an accident.  As was the hit on Green, another defender of that top scorer and the field general for the offense,  just a coincidence.

A one game suspension for one player is not enough.  The only effective league deterrent is forfeit of a game.  But even that isn't really enough, because Payton is out for the rest of this series--which happens to be his most important series because of his ability to guard Morant.

The league needs to settle this down now.  The Commissioner or another official should attend the next game in a very visible way, to observe what's going on.  The better referees should be reassigned to this series, not the crew that officiated in Memphis, especially in the first game, when (among other errors) they made way too much of Green's foul, and set up this escalating retribution.

Unfortunately not much can be done about the blood-thirsty Memphis crowd, except to silence them with resounding defeat. 

Onward with the Golden State Warriors

 The plain fact about the Golden State Warriors in the playoffs is that this is a team no one has seen before. Comprised of veterans with championships and acknowledged greatness, and younger players of immense potential, it is nevertheless a new team.  With key players getting injured and returning from injury throughout the second half of the season, this is a team that has never played together before, until the playoffs.  That's also because the players who got more minutes than they otherwise would have with one star or another out, are themselves different players because of that.

The Warriors won their first round series against Denver and last year's (and perhaps this year's) regular season MVP, with two blowout wins and two character-builders--three if you count the one they lost.  They get an extra day or two of rest on their next opponent, and they are still healthy.  Best of all, Steph Curry came back in this series with a quick return to top form.  He took over the last minutes of the deciding game.

Now suddenly the Warriors are the favorites to win the NBA championship.  Excessive enthusiasms one way or another have become the hallmark of sports coverage and the echo chamber of sports pundits.  And it's true that this Warriors teams, like some of the championship years, at times seems otherworldly.  When they are playing well this team is more dazzling and fun to watch than any other.

But they are a new team, and prudence suggests their crowning after one round is premature.  I'm a Warriors fan but I have no idea how this team will fare against any of their opponents, because this particular team has never played them.

If you're going by the fact that no other team in the West won their first round--usually the easiest for the higher seed--in five games, that shows vulnerabilities but not necessarily to the Warriors.  However, with the decline of Phoenix in the playoffs, it's not a bad bet that the Warriors will emerge champions of the West, ultimately.

But in the East, the Boston Celtics didn't just win in five--they swept a team many pundits picked to win it all, the Brooklyn Nets.  The Celtics specialize in brutal defense--and I mean brutal in both senses of the word.  If they come out of the East, the Warriors will likely be tested.

But that's a month away.  These Warriors are still a new team in the second round, and if they get through that, the third.  It's going to be exciting--maybe too exciting--but anyway, exciting.

Suddenly the Warriors

 

To expect success in the playoffs, a team needs to go into them healthy and with momentum.  There are exceptions but that's the rule.

With a few weeks left in the season, the Golden State Warriors had neither.  Still trying to adapt to the loss of their latest injured star (Steph Curry), they were losing, and to much weaker teams.  After two years recovering from injuries, Klay Thompson was slowly rounding into form, and after his injury, Draymond Green admitted he wasn't playing well.  Meanwhile, the Warriors looked like they would drop further down in seeding, and miss any home court advantage.

But then things started to click.  The Warriors started winning, Green and Thompson became brilliant again, and the team secured the three seed with a five game winning streak.  It looked like Curry would be back for the first game of the playoffs, at home against Denver.

Until the playoffs, the core of stars--Curry, Thompson and Green--had played together for less than 20 minutes total this season.  But during all this turmoil, the younger and newer players got plenty of court time, lots of attention from the coaching staff, and all kinds of game experience.  Some found solid roles.  Two in particular--Jonathan Kuminga and Jordan Poole--were learning so much that they seemed like different players each game.  Andrew Wiggins, who played himself into the All Star game in the first half of the season, was up and down, but was starting to settle in as the season ended.  By then, Jordan Poole in particular was emerging as a star, a younger version of Steph.  Once again, this is a team that is the most fun to watch.

 Of course Coach Steve Kerr could not have planned it this way, but he did foresee its advantages.  It was clear from earlier in the season that the Warriors have now assembled a very talented group beyond the starters.  So when the playoffs began, Poole was starting--and starring--while other players were ready to make the most of their minutes to help the team.

Only time will tell, but it is possible that this is a better team than it was with Kevin Durant.  After two overpowering victories in the first round, a gutty win in the third game, and a sweep within sight, people were taking another look at the championship potential of the Warriors--not next year but this year.

As good as the Warriors were in the first half, when they had the league's best record, they are better now.  They look devastating against the Denver Nuggets.  No one could know what the chemistry would be like when various combinations of this core group played together--Steph, Klay, Draymond, Poole, Wiggins, Kevon Looney and Andre Igoudala.  But it's been immediate.  There might have been a question about Curry returning from his foot injury, ready to play--but once he became comfortable with the pace of the game, the rest seemed to provide him with the energy in the second game to score more points in the briefest time than anyone else.

Right now it looks like the only thing that can stop these Warriors is... the same thing that has stymied them for the past two years: injuries.  The playoffs are brutal.  It's going to take that other necessary element to succeed in the playoffs: good fortune.  They've had enough of the other kind.   

The NFL, the Super Bowl and the Game

 The NFL is in such deep shit that it gives a new meaning to Super Bowl.  Fired Dolphins coach Brian Flores is suing the entire league for a pattern of racism in hiring, but his supporting allegations seem to go beyond that.  His charge that owners run the league "like a plantation" only articulates in a very public way what some sportswriters and others have been saying for years, though sometimes more obliquely. 

Meanwhile, the Washington football club and its current management have not gotten out from under their troubles with a less than popular new team name.  As one article recently summarized the situation, the league is in general disrepute, but it rakes in so much cash and the owners are so absurdly wealthy that they feel invulnerable.

One reason is the strange centrality in American culture of the Super Bowl.  Why is it a national holiday and obsession on a par with Christmas--or exceeding it?  It's not often even a very good football game.  But it's self-generating hype at this point, with TV heavily invested.  And given the pandemic and the perilous state of politics, we are desperate for distraction.  We'll ignore insurrection, mob insanity, war, death, racism, anything.  Let's wallow and rate the multi-million dollar commercials.

And so we're into it again.  But is this year's winner even in doubt?  The LA Rams are a very wealthy team that spent heavily on the best veteran players it could buy precisely to be in this game, in its own stadium. It's a team that not only feels it belongs in the Super Bowl, it feels entitled.  Meanwhile, the Bengals are the unlikely opponent, that nobody predicted would be there, and some refuse to even believe they are.

So it's a great setup for a David and Goliath story, with the All American boy Joe Burrow as the miracle making hero.  He is certainly a highly gifted quarterback with an almost magical quality.  His problem is that in order to throw a pass, he has to be standing up.  The Rams have an overpowering defensive line and pass rush, the Bengals a not very good offensive line.  Maybe Burrow spends just enough time not flat on his back to squeak out a victory in a low-scoring game, as he has before in these playoffs.  But it seems much more likely that the best possible outcome is that he survives this game without serious injury.  The Rams may not score much either, so I expect this to be a ugly game.

The retirement of Tom Brady and the Steelers' Big Ben symbolize the changeover to Burrow and the other young quarterbacks that run a different kind of game.  While not quite as thoroughly as Steph Curry changed NBA basketball, these exciting young quarterbacks are what could save the game on the field.  But it's in the executive suites that the smelly problems persist.

 It didn't take long for everybody to forget concussions and serious injuries that could be avoided with rule and equipment changes.  That responsibility also belongs to the league leadership.  But they don't really care.  Nor does the sports media that feeds off the mayhem.  They provide the deodorant.  Besides, it's more difficult to get upset about violence in football when  it's ominously clear that daily life in America is becoming more violent.  While the bodies crashed in the LA stadium during the last game, a visiting fan was beaten and killed outside.  It isn't just the NFL that's in deep shit these days.