Obama Everywhere

If John McCain wasn't getting relatively gentle treatment from the news media (which actually doesn't bother me at this point--but only if they go after him in September), his campaign would be in even more of a shambles. The best thing that happened to him recently is that he has a guaranteed $80 million for the fall, by accepting public financing. The RNC corporatists and lobbyists should kick in at least that much more.

But Obama is staying with his army of donors, 1.5 million and growing. His campaign brought in only $22 million in May, but there are whispers about a huge rebound in June, perhaps to be his biggest month ever. We'll see. But now that it's clear that the GOPers have nothing positive to run on, and must go negative on Obama to have a chance, and remembering 2004 when the Swift Boaters attacked Kerry between the costly primaries and when public financing for the fall kicked in (and even then, because of convention timing, he got about $11 million less than Bush) and Kerry had no money to fight back--well, it made perfect sense to keep the campaign in his control by staying with his donors and supporters, and passing up federal financing.

That's helping him continue to organize a formidable campaign, with a presence in every state. Obama is already showing surprising strength--no more so than in the Newsweek poll which shows him 15 points ahead of McCain. Another set of numbers has him ahead in the major swing states of Ohio, Florida and PA. These numbers may not hold up, but it's better than the reverse. My own guess is that it's closer in Ohio and Florida, but Democratic registration was so strong in PA that Obama will win it. With a concise personal and patriotic first ad ("Country That I Love") and his Father's Day exhortation, Obama is introducing himself to general election voters.

Polls like Newsweek's show that Obama can add the category of women to those (like Latinos, Jewish voters, working class voters, etc.) he isn't really having a problem with, and the importance of that increases on the choice issue--particularly as McCain is under pressure to limit his vp list to anti-choice candidates. Even his highly touted "Appalachian problem" seems exaggerated to one of the most respected numbers analysts in the blogosphere.

Obama came out and pretty much said that he expects an element of the fearmongering the GOPers will try will be on his race, but a Washington Post poll--while it shows racial concerns, prejudices and divides--has this silver lining: 90% of white voters surveyed said they would be comfortable with a black President. The poll shows there is potential for racial mischief, but at the moment, McCain's problems are worse: "Numerous polls, for example, have indicated that McCain's age may be a bigger detractor than Obama's race. And more are now concerned that McCain will heed too closely the interests of large corporations than said so about Obama and the interests of blacks."

But remaining on the list of problems this week at least are older voters, and specifically baby boomers. Though the poll's definition of what constitutes a boomer is not demographically correct (they polled those born between 1944 and 1958; the boom was 1946-1964), it shows Obama behind McCain by 18 points.

Though a decision is likely months away, the vice presidential sweepstakes got a lot of attention last week. The appointment of erstwhile Clinton campaign manager (but now reportedly estranged from the Clintons) Patty Solis Doyle to be that vp's chief of staff seemed to dim the likelihood of Hillary, as did a swing states poll that showed independent voters don't much like the idea of her on the ticket.

A couple of the less likely names also dropped off the list. Barney Frank put the kabosh on Sam Nunn for his anti-gay votes, and Senator Jim Webb came out for off-shore drilling the same week as McCain and Bush did, and Obama spoke out strongly against it. Chris Dodd accidentally got himself a preferential loan, and that may have stopped his chances. Besides Webb's problem, the other Virginians Mark Warner (said he won't) and Tim Kaine (doesn't seem to want to) seem less likely. Bill Richardson seems eager, but that might depend on how campaign insiders felt he performed after endorsing Obama--some stuff I've seen says not so well.

John Edwards seems to have gone back on his "not me" comments, so he remains in the running. As do Kathleen Sibelius and Janet Napolitano. Joe Biden maybe. But I see no chance (and would be very disappointed if) colorless Evan Bayh, old pols Strictland of Ohio and Rendell of PA, and all the other lazy choices. Wesley Clark doesn't seem to want it, though that's just a feeling.

Well, on to more important things, like songs. Of all the Obama songs this year, the one that sticks in my head is this one--"Obama Everywhere in Pennsylvania" by Earl Pickens and Thunder. Message to Earl: get busy on nationalizing those lyrics. I want to be hearing the new version real soon. Can we hear another guitar solo? Yes, we can.

A Long Way to Go

The long-term and more permanent damage that global heating will cause has seeped into even American consciousness, though other more pressing problems keep shoving it to the back of the line. Fortunately perhaps, the more proximate crises involving energy and energy costs may well be playing out in a way that, however sideways in intent, does something at least to lessen greenhouse gas emissions.

But the Climate Crisis is also causing--or making worse, or otherwise contributing to--bad stuff that is happening right now, and is very probably going to happen more in the near future, like extreme weather and its consequences. The more familiar crises these patterns cause are paradoxically the ones we seem unequipped to face or understand. Katrina is the poster child for poor government response and comprehension. But the Midwest floods this week exemplify the weakness of our public information systems, particularly our preposterous news media.

First of all, only major newspapers and the broadcast network news (plus certain shows on CNN) paid much attention. And their coverage was silly. John Stewart made fun of the "human dipstick" approach--focusing on reporters standing in flood waters to indicate how high they were--but that really seemed to be the general level of coverage. It was stupid.

Buried in print reports and blog reports were such facts as 25,000 homeless in Cedar Rapids alone, 24 deaths, billions in damages, toxic waters flooding homes, businesses and schools. Serious stuff, you would think.

What is it about the weather that makes people talk and act so dumb? Is it repressed fear? The cheery weather person dancing in front of the map, sing-songing about record this and not-quite-record that. Temperatures in excess of 100 for days on end, and "it's going to be another hot one out there." And so on. Either that, or it's alarmists breaking into programs to sow fear of a thunderstorm. Are these people that weak-minded?

Meanwhile, people die and weaken in the heat, power grids tremble, drought spreads and kills, fires burn trees (killing their carbon-holding capacity, and spewing carbon into the air), while a sudden tornados ambush Boy Scouts and tear through homes, and floods wash away crops (while perhaps poisoning the ground) and destroy homes and businesses.

It's refreshing that at least one presidential candidate--Barack Obama--heeded the request of overstretched law enforcement in Iowa not to come to be photographed looking at the flood. (He filled sandbags in Quincy, Illinois earler.) John McCain however could not pass up the photo op, ignoring the real needs.

We need a lot more of that maturity and judgment. We need media that can actually report on what's going on objectively, and as comprehensively as possible. Because as these events happen more frequently, and they are more damaging, the fact that they are unpredictable results of a predicted pattern can't come as a surprise, or the capacity of government and other agencies to deal with them to decrease suffering and longterm damage will be severely hampered.

A Good Start for Obama

This was a good week for Barack Obama. As the all-but-official nominee, he took hold of the Democratic National Committee--though Howard Dean (a fellow advocate for a 50 state strategy) remains as Chair, Obama brought in people he trusts, and moved parts of the operation to his HQ in Chicago. The first cadres of newly trained Obama volunteers were dispatched, and campaign offices are slated to open in every state, beginning in some major swing states.

The Obama campaign set up an impressive "Fight the Smears" web site to combat false charges. And while the Bushite administration shows little interest in the plight of the Midwest beset by floods and storms, the Obama campaign is organizing volunteers to help.

New polls taken at about the time Hillary conceded show a bump for Obama, which could be even larger in the next round of polls, taken afterwards. For example, Obama beat McCain by six points in the NBC poll, which had never shown Kerry ahead of Bush in 2004 (and Bush never ahead by more than 4 points.) Other match-up polls together with electoral vote forecasts like this one and this one looked even better. Obama also showed strength in individual state polls in Wisconsin and New Jersey. Also state and national studies showing Democrats or the Democratic party surging to the detriment of GOPers.

Plus the internals of these polls showed Obama gaining among groups where he was supposed to be weak, like women voters and older voters. Obama is more trusted on the economy than McCain. Combine that with earlier studies that showed him leading among Latinos and Jewish voters, and making inroads with black conservatives, plus prominent Republicans like Colin Powell and former Bush press sec Scott McClellan saying they are considering voting for Obama.

So what does this mean for the rest of the campaign? McCain has nothing in terms of issues plus he's screwing up and looking bad. Obama is campaigning aggressively and scoring points, and the country is crying out for change. Though McCain is after Hillary voters, many are consolidating for Obama, while even some congressional Republicans are making it known they won't vote for McCain. So as one cable commentator astutely observed, the only course McCain and the GOPers have is to negatively define Obama in a personal way, so voters won't trust him. Then it won't matter that voters are on his side on the issues.

That's why the Obama campaign is gearing up to counter a very negative campaign against them, while putting the candidate out there where people can see and hear him: familiarity breeds comfort, among those who need reassurance. That's why quickly solidifying himself as the party nominee and taking control of the party machinery this week was so important. Dems smell victories at every level, and they're beginning to sense that Obama is going to get them new voters, even in states he might not carry.

Another good sign--the Obama campaign continues to recruit and inspire its young volunteers, and their imagery is going to be there when media is looking for the story of this campaign. Plus their work on the local level: I heard Howard Fineman talking about the elderly ladies on Polish Hill in Pittsburgh who were a bit wary of Obama, but couldn't conceive of voting Republican. I thought immediately of young Obama volunteers offering to take those ladies to the polls, showering them with attention and their energy and committment. I'd say their votes are in the bag.

There are going to be moments of sheer beauty in the coming campaign. But it's also likely to get ugly.

R.I.P. Tim Russert

I haven't had too much good to say about Tim Russert here. But I learned a lot more about him in the remembrances I saw on MSNBC today, following his sudden death from a heart attack today. He was a superior Washington bureau manager, a mentor, a good friend, and dedicated not only to his family and his child, but to the families and children of colleagues.

Russert was a political process guy, not so good on policy, Tom Brokaw said. Maybe we need reporters who are just as intent on policy and other topics. The flooding in the Midwest continued today, and the reporting I've seen has been uniformly terrible. Print coverage doesn't seem much better. Maybe we need some reporters who bring that same intensity and hunger for knowledge to climate reporting as Russert brought to politics. It's been difficult not to get sucked into all politics all the time during this primary season, but that can't be everything.

The authenticity with which his colleagues spoke of Russert today suggests he was an authentic person, and a good person. He certainly seems to have touched many peoples lives for the good, and that's a great legacy to leave. Some of his colleagues also sounded lost, as if even his process-oriented rigor was a last bastion of quality news at the networks, which is scary. But for now we can note that many people will miss Tim Russert. May he rest in peace.

On the VP Short List

Just a brief comment on the VP short list "leaked" by a Senator who supports Obama. The cable bloviators and some Internet sites made a big deal of this, but doesn't anybody remember anything? This "list" seems to be one person's recollection of people he was asked about. Even if it isn't, even if it was actually "leaked" by the Obama campaign (which I don't believe it was), names have been leaked for all kinds of reasons in the past: as trial balloons, as something to make the people named feel good even if they aren't really being seriously considered, and as diversions for the media from the people who are actually being considered.

There have been times when the VP nominee wasn't even one of the "leaked" names. Paid journalists ought to be looking that up before they go off on their speculations. (Walter Shapiro has a go at Salon.) But then speculation is what feeds the cable/Internet audience: it offers viewers/readers reason to offer their opinions on the names, which provides the necessary illusion that they've got a huge audience. And gives bloviators ways to shape the hot air continously coming out of their mouths.

That Was the Week That Was

A week too astounding to take in yet, it ended with perhaps the biggest surprise: Hillary Clinton gave a gracious speech, endorsing Barak Obama. Despite the bitterness some of her supporters still express, polls show the healing has begun.

But it's Obama vs. McCain now, and a couple of interesting prospects: that Obama will do better than McCain among Latinos (because he already is), and Obama is poised to do what no Democrat has even fantasized doing--getting a chunk of the Evangelical Christian vote--maybe even 40%.

I don't know when Obama said this, but this video shows him talking about his priorities in his first 100 days as President. The issues are Iraq, health care, energy/climate crisis, and reviewing Bush executive orders to reverse the ones that are unconstitutional. Though he probably would emphasize some pressing economic issues now, it's worth a watch.

I notice that some Clinton supporters are making their enemies list. And even though I was with the victor, there are people I will never think about in the same way again (which doesn't include Clinton people I always despised, like Terry McC. and Howard the Wolfson, or pols like Gov. Strickland of Ohio I first met during the campaign and despised immediately) That list would include--well, Emily's List, as well as Bill Clinton, Dianne Feinstein, Paul Krugman, Joan Walsh of Salon ..and a bunch of people I've already forgotten, who will stay forgot.

The Morning After

Our long national nightmare is over.

It's been widely reported and confirmed by higher ups in the Clinton campaign that Hillary will acknowledge reality on Saturday, and endorse Barack Obama as the Democratic Party nominee. And late Wednesday comes a letter from Clinton herself confirming this.

The end came today, and the coup de grace was dealt by her own supporters. First the New York congressional delegation, led by Charlie Rangel (who later went public) told her that her speech last night was a mistake, and that they wanted to endorse Obama immediately, and she should do the same. Then, according to Howard Fineman of Newsweek/Keith, a group of 8 Senators who'd supported her told her in a conference call that the time to endorse Obama is now--a call initiated by higher ups in her campaign.

All this was after negative reactions to her speech, and her attempt to muster her supporters (which led to racist remarks to at least one black Obama congressional endorser's office) and some rebellion in her ranks (Hillary Rosen: "I am not a bargaining chip. I am a Democrat."

The writing was on the wall by the time Clinton and Obama literally crossed paths after he spoke to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and before she did. Especially as he was accompanied by Rahm Emmanuel, who'd been for Clinton but had endorsed Obama just hours earlier.

And the flood of endorsements continued today, including former Clinton supporters Senator Barbara Boxer and Rep. Maxine Waters. Here's one list, and here's another (neat picture.)

Along with the collapse of Clinton's support came a collapse of talk about her being VP. Obama appointed three people to begin the selection process--the surprise being Caroline Kennedy. Apparently she's been advising as well as appearing onstage for awhile now. Update on this point--E.J. Dionne saying at greater length and probity in Thursday's Washington Post what was said here Tuesday night:" Hillary Clinton talked her way out of the vice presidency on Tuesday night. Barack Obama may never have intended to make her the offer. But Clinton's largely self-focused non-concession speech suggested that what some call a dream ticket could turn into a nightmare.

But gaining the vice presidency by invoking leverage just can't work. It makes the presidential candidate look weak. It breaks in advance the trust that running mates need. It can only presage conflicts and power struggles in a new administration. Hillary Clinton is an enormously talented public servant. Many who ended up supporting Obama once hoped to support her. But Clinton's political future requires her to accept that Obama has prevailed, that the primary campaign is over and that graciousness in defeat can, paradoxically, be turned into the most powerful leverage of all. "

Meanwhile, the historic nature of Obama's nomination was especially recognized and applauded abroad:

From hundreds of supporters crowded around televisions in rural Kenya, Obama's ancestral homeland, to jubilant Britons writing "WE DID IT!" on the Brits for Barack discussion board on Facebook, people celebrated what they called an important racial and generational milestone for the United States.

"This is close to a miracle. I was certain that some things will not happen in my lifetime," said Sunila Patel, 62, a widow encountered on the streets of New Delhi. "A black president of the U.S. will mean that there will be more American tolerance for people around the world who are different."

Unless he decides to show up at the Hillary event Saturday, Obama is taking the weekend off. It's about time for this blog to take some time off, too. In fact, to slow down for the near future. So my handful of regular visitors should expect a weekly rather than daily report, as events warrant and the spirit moves.

It's been fun playing pundit, fun seeing that I did it pretty well, often enough anticipating news points and judgments, as well as catching the gist as well as the drift of events. But time to turn to other, harder follies for awhile.

The Big Night

And suddenly there was a flood. Nobody has yet reported the sequence or the names, but around the time that the networks declared Obama the presumptive nominee (which was immediately after South Dakota polls closed, and he only needed a few delegates) the flood-gates of super d's opened. NBC's final count for the day was 59.5, with Clinton losing 3. That put him well over the top, even past the number he would have needed had Michigan and Florida been seated with full delegates. There are likely to be more on Wednesday.

Obama's speech was exciting, and aimed more at the general election public than in looking back on the campaign. He had apparently watched the earlier McCain speech, and was already responding to it, and he reportedly watched Clinton's speech, which may be why he looked to me a bit annoyed. (Or maybe it was just me, because I was seriously annoyed.) Ambinder suggested he was close to tears, and I did catch some of that vibe, too. "Obama thanked his grandmother above all else; without her, he said, none of this would have been possible. She is white, of course. The explicit message is obvious. The implicit message: this thing, this event, is much more than just a step for racial equality."

And as Joe Klein wrote, "His graciousness made Hillary Clinton's lack of grace--and lack of realism about her fate--seem unworthy of her and rather small."

Fortunately, newspapers around the world could care less about Clinton: their headlines were all about Obama. The nominee of the Democratic Party for President of the United States.

Final note on the primaries: Though South Dakota will show as a 10 point win for Clinton, that amounts to about a ten thousand votes difference. Obama's 16 point win in Montana represents a difference of more than 25,000 votes.

Demented Narcissist For VP?

I don't want to white privilege this by posting it at the top, but it's impossible not to note how Hillary ended the primary season the way she has conducted it since Iowa: with utter lack of grace, decency, truthfulness, and with what Jeffrey Toobin on CNN called her "demented narcissism."

On the night that should have been Obama's, much of the talk was about her speech, her refusal to acknowledge what the rest of the world knew (her speech very symbolically in a room two floors below street level, where no TV, radio or cell phone signals could penetrate), and her preposterous message of telling supporters to go to her web site and tell her what they think she should do. Face reality, maybe? Be a Democrat? Actually try to get all that good things you supported done by backing the only candidate who will do them?

Her denial and her selective reality began when she called South Dakota the last primary. It was the last primary, of course, because it's the last one she's won. She doesn't acknowledge the existence of primaries (like the actual last one, in Montana) that Obama has won. And it went on from there.

Contrast the graciousness and the humility of Barack Obama's speech in St. Paul, before 17,000 in the arena plus another 15,000 outside. It's no wonder that Obama supporters, both insiders and small donors, are horrified at the idea of Hillary being the VP candidate. She is the anti-Obama, in more ways that one.

And she might actually have had a chance, if she had been a tiny bit gracious tonight, and given Obama his due. (She complimented his campaign, in the manner of a not particularly gracious victor.) But she wasn't gracious or generous or even just, and she sounds like she's trying to blackmail him into naming her VP, which would be a total disaster for him if he did. And his supporters now really won't stand for it.

Hillary Clinton may be a shining symbol to some women (even though she's apparently intent on making sure no other woman is named VP but her, hardly a principled feminist stance), but as far as I'm concerned she's a disgrace.

The Big Day

The exciting conclusion posted above...

5:30: Obamagic Number is 9.

5pm: The NBC count is Obamagic Number at 11. CNN has it at 9.

3pm: Now it's a done deal. NBC reports that the Obamagic Number is 14. He's sure to get more delegates than that from today's primaries. And people are really pissed that Clinton is horning in on the headlines today.

2:30 p. Pacific: Obama Clinches Nomination--headline from the AP. Unfortunately the other half is Clinton open to VP. NBC reports a conversation between Clinton and New York congressional delegation in which she said as much, and also that she will not be conceding tonight.

Also the "flood" of super-delegates is not likely to happen until the polls close, and even later in the week--there's an awful lot of deference being paid to Clinton. It's good riddance as far as I'm concerned, and if she and her manic idiot staff go on a campaign for vp I'm going to throw up.

Also it's not clear what numbers the AP is using (though other sources are anticipating leaked endorsements to come after polls close) because with today's semi-flood of super d's so far, the Obamagic Number is 27.5. At least 10 more are going to have to declare to seal the deal by the time Obama speaks tonight.

The Big Day Before

So here's the buzz: Hillary may (or may not) suspend her campaign tomorrow evening (Tuesday), in a speech in New York. Signs are strong that she is finishing her campaign, but I rate a concession tomorrow as doubtful. I think it is more likely Wednesday in Washington. But signs are that it is coming, though with the Hillaryites, you can never be sure.

The buzz is also that Obama campaign is trying to get enough super d's to declare tomorrow so he will be able to declare that he's passed the Obamagic Number for the nomination when Montana and South Dakota delegates are counted. How close is he? The NBC count gives Obama 4 super d's today, moving his Obamagic number to 39.5.

Rep. Jim Clyburn of the House leadership is declaring for Obama tomorrow, and is actively calling other super d's to do the same. Chuck Todd reports the rumors that some 34 House members and a dozen to 17 Senators are set to endorse Obama this week, most of them by Wednesday. But how many tomorrow? Obama is expected to get about 17 delegates from the two contests tomorrow. If he gets at least 23 super d's during the day and evening, then he can declare victory.

Buzz is also that Obama and Clinton have talked, and that their staffs have started talking. But if Clinton is serious about doing all she can to help Obama win, she will concede tomorrow so he can use the national audience he will get to start the general election campaign, as the presumptive candidate of a uniting party. But it is much more likely that the Hillaryites will serve her ego, and Bill's, and glorify themselves tomorrow, then concede quietly a day or a week later.

Eyes on the Prize

11 p. The Obama site is calling the Obamagic Number: 46.

6p. Pacific Sun: With two new supes and a projected 17 delegates from Puerto Rico, the Obamagic Number is 46.5 (though NBC has it at 45.5 with Obama credited with just 15 P.R. delegates. So it may be 43.5.)

I'm going to try to avoid saying vile things about the serial liars and general assholes of the Clinton campaign, up to and including the candidate, and keep my eyes on the prize. Gee, it's really working so far.

Rules and Games

Circus and civics it was, as the Rules Committee had a morning session, then took a long "lunch break" to decide on compromise proposals for Florida and Michigan. Both states got to seat their full complement of delegates, but each now has one-half vote, including super-d's. The delegate apportionment for Florida compromise got unanimous support, but Harold Icky, the head Clintonista, objected to the Michigan compromise with some vituperative language, ending, "I have been instructed by my candidate [HRC] to reserve the right to appeal this to the Credentials committee." That, and the constant interruptions by Hillary's Hooligans in the room, put on hold any sense of party unity. But the decisions, as Chuck Todd said on MsNBC, affirm that this is now Barack Obama's Democratic Party, and no longer the property of the Clintons.

What does it mean for the race? The new "magic number" for the nomination is 2118. Reserving the right to change these numbers, for they are approximate, the Obamagic Number is 65 (Chuck Todd), 66 (AP) or 68 (CNN), depending on who you ask.

Just about the only open questions now are: will Obama pass the Obamagic Number by Tuesday night? Will Hillary take the fight to the Credentials committee and the convention?

Before the heavyweights weigh in--and I'll update this post as their posts start appearing--here's my intuition: Icky's threat is going to alarm enough super-delegates who were thinking of waiting until June 4 to declare, to declare sooner, so that Obama will have the national stage on Tuesday night to start the campaign against McCain in the highly symbolic St. Paul site of the upcoming GOPer convention. And that Hillary will not appeal. There are two reasons she won't: 1. both proposals had the support of the state parties, which makes it very difficult for her to do so with any credibility except to win more delegates for herself. 2. Enough super-delegates will declare for Obama to establish him as the nominee long before that committee meets at the end of June.

Updates Start Here: Based on his estimates of what Obama is likely to get from Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana primaries, Al G. at the Field estimates that Obama needs 25 super-d's to win the nom. He and the Jed Report concur that the Iccy threat is empty and this isn't going to the convention.

Chuck Todd updates his numbers ("the New Math") here. According to NBC figures, the Obamagic Number is 62.5. But it's changing even tonight as Mich and Fla are sorted out, and as new super-d's declare. But at the moment, if Clinton and Obama split the remaining contest delegates 50% each, Obama will be 20 delegates from the nomination. The Obama campaign has not yet updated its numbers.

The Day Before (With Update)

CNN is treating tomorrows Rules Committee meeting like a major event, with live coverage. (So is MSNBC.) With the Clintonistas protesting outside, could be a combination of circus and civics lesson. Maybe that's a good description of our political system.

Anyway, Chuck Todd has a description of the agenda and the formulas being discussed. Apparently the scenario he outlined yesterday he still thinks is the most likely, resulting in Clinton gaining 19 dels in Florida and the pop vote counts; Michigan splits 50-50, after their delegation is reduced by half. Figuring Obama's likely del gains in the upcoming primaries, Todd figures he will be all of 15 delegates short of the new Obamagic number of 2118 after Tuesday. But there are other possibilities that will require more super-d's. What's not going to happen, he says, is the Clintons getting all they want.

After what may turn out to be a fascinating unity event Saturday night in New York, there's the Puerto Rico primary on Sunday, which will be over by 3 pm Eastern. The Clintons are all over the island but this story questions whether a whole lot of people are going to vote. Officials there predict a half million voters, and this story says maybe not that much. Hillary needs a big turnout as well as a big win to continue her already ridiculous claims of a popular vote lead.

Today several outlets are quoting Hillary saying in a Montana press briefing that she expects super-dels to begin declaring right after the last primaries on Tuesday, responding to the Pelosi and Reid exhortations. She said she would support an appeal of the Rules Committee decision tomorrow if Florida and Michigan officially made appeals (which is very unlikely.) She says she hopes the nomination is settled by June 3. So we're getting half-heartedly conciliatory Hillary today.

Conciliation might be in order if she wants to have a political future in New York. After stories last week about the fence-mending she needs to do with New York African Americans, this poll suggests she's losing the support of her own state. Half of Democrats polled want her to drop out of the presidential race, with just 43% supporting her staying in. More New Yorkers believe Obama is the stronger candidate, and his favorables have gone up (to 62%) while hers have gone down.

All of this is happening while on another track entirely the general election campaign is being engaged, with heated exchanges between the Obama and McCain campaigns, and most the news focused on the Scott McClellan book. It's a schizoid moment.

Obama got two super-d's today so far. The current Obamagic Number is 41.

Update: The story is circulating that Obama will declare nomination victory on Tuesday night at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN--the very place where the Republican convention will be held. As those two guys say on the commercials, "Brilliant!"

Donna Brazile has made a fascinating statement on her web site, which I've excerpted at Dreaming Up Daily, under a great photo from Montana today.

Nerves (with Updates)

Today the mediageist is hesitating, suggesting that maybe this nomination thing is going to continue past June 4, but still be over by June 15, or June 30. The Clinton campaign sending signals that it is planning beyond June 3, which could be gamesmanship to not discourage its voters from voting in the upcoming primaries. But they could be serious.

The unknowns involve how much bigger the magic number will be after Saturday. Chuck Todd writes that in the plan that seems to have the most support at the moment, it would turn out to be 2118. How quickly Obama gets to that number depends on delegate allocation, the results of the primaries and how successful the Obama campaign is in getting super-delegate committments for June 4 and 5. Their aim likely is to run up the score to 2210 as soon as possible, because that would be the magic number if all the Florida and Michigan dels were fully counted, and therefore a convention challenge to the Rules committee solution would be useless to Hillary.

The question still seems to be when and if Hillary will concede and end all doubt. There is growing noise that not to do so by June 5 would severely damage her political future.

Chuck Todd suggested that a little persuasion by the triumverate of Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid would more or less force her out. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi told the SF Chronicle that she would step in to help resolve the nomination question if it's not resolved by the end of June. Update: Harry Reid is on board as well.

On the other hand, it still could be over on June 4. Rep. James Clyburn, member of the Dem House leadership and a S.C. super-delegate, announced he will endorse on Tuesday. That could be a signal. As today's statements by Pelosi and Reed (see update above.)

With no reliable polling, the South Dakota contest on Tuesday is expected to be close, with Obama having the edge due to organizational advantages.

Roger Simon has a funny column at Politico about the drama gap between the Hillary and Barack campaigns.

With one super-del today so far, the current Obamagic number is 44.

UPDATE: AP reports further: Top Democratic leaders intend to push for a quick end to the battle for the presidential nomination when primaries are over next week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday, adding that he, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and party chairman Howard Dean will urge uncommitted delegates to choose sides. "By this time next week, it will all be over give or take a day," Reid said of the marathon race between the front-running Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Democratic officials said Pelosi already has begun contacting uncommitted House members urging them to weigh in soon after the primary season ends. Numerous Democrats have expressed concern that a protracted nominating campaign could harm the party's chances of winning the White House in the fall. John McCain effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination in March."

Another story suggests that the Clinton proposal faces "tough, if not insurmountable odds" at the Rules committee meeting Saturday, but that the Clintonistas plan to appeal an adverse ruling to the Credentials committee (which others said is unlikely to succeed) and then to the convention.

Putting these two stories together, the outcome could be that Obama passes all the magic numbers next week, Clinton suspends her campaign but doesn't concede, or she neither suspends nor concedes--and the party essentially ignores her. The danger for her is that they will keep ignoring her for the rest of her career. If Obama wins in November, she'll be the sore loser. If Obama loses, she'll be blamed.

Update on Delegates: score one more for Obama. Current Obamagic Number: 43.

Clear and Clearer

Though the book indicting major administration figures by a former Bush press secretary has taken the media wind out of the Dem Rules committee meeting Saturday, there is still news about it. Principally that the committee's lawyers have given their legal opinion that by rule no more than half the Michigan and Florida delegates can be seated, no matter how they are divided among the candidates. Though the Clintonistas are arrogantly demanding that the party violate its own rules and decisions (the decision to not seat the delegates at all once had the support of all the Clinton supporters on the relevant committee), it's almost certainly not going to happen.

The questions that remain are who gets how many delegates, and whether to allow these states their full slate of super-delegates. But no one now believes that the decision will affect the outcome, and Obama will remain ahead in delegates.

While the Obama campaign has called on its supporters not to demonstrate outside the committee meeting, the Clintonistas are organizing their protests. But Marc Ambinder says "this will almost certainly backfire and wind up steeling the committee's spine."

Count Tim Russert of NBC--as close to an establishment voice as there is in the media now--among those saying that the race will be over Wednesday, June 4.

There is a new Puerto Rico poll that has Clinton at 51% and Obama at 38%, although half said they may not vote. With those percentages, Obama would get at least 24 of the 55 elected delegates, but if Obama does a few points better and it's 49-40%, it would be considered a victory in the expectations game.

Wednesday Obama picked up 4 super-delegates. The Obamagic Number: 45.

Looking forward to the general election, this AP story that says "Barack Obama has done poorly in the Democratic primaries with women, Catholics and others who will be pivotal in this fall's presidential election. Yet early polling shows that with several of these groups, he's competitive when matched against Republican John McCain."

And this analysis that says Obama is already ahead of McCain in enough electoral votes to win the presidency, but this is likely his baseline--he has the potential to win big.

It Will End Next Week

All signs now point to an end to the Democratic nomination fight a week from now, or maybe a week and two days, with Barack Obama becoming the Democratic Party nominee for President.

Saturday the party Rules committee meets to resolve the Michigan and Florida situations. There are signs that the Hillary campaign is ready to deal, and although the formula may be different for each state, there will be a resolution, and it will not affect the outcome. These deals may be negotiated this week, but it may take the reality of the meeting--I read somewhere that the more Hillary has talked about this, the angrier committee members have gotten. The Hillaryites may have to see that anger before they go for the best deal they can get.

This should be a pretty dramatic Saturday. First the Rules meeting, with a Hillaryite demo outside, reminicent of the thugs who scared the vote-counters in Florida in 2000 (those of you with HBO can see it all dramatized again.) Then a big party fundraiser with both Obama and Hillary people, hosted by Al Gore.

Then Sunday the Puerto Rico primary. Hillary is expected to win--mostly because she's familiar and backed by key unions--but nobody really knows. Depending on how these two events go, Hillary may have her last news day on Monday. Then Tuesday, June 3, Montana and South Dakota end the primaries. Montana is a lock for Obama, SD is probable.

Then the super-d's end it. Marc Ambinder reports that "as many as three dozen Democratic superdelegates have privately pledged to announce their support for Obama on June 4 or 5. The campaign is determined that Obama not end the first week in June without securing the support of delegates numbering 2026 -- or 2210, as the case may be. " Last week President Carter predicted this will happen, and it sounds like he will be one of them.

Others are agreeing that something like this will happen, and the race will be over.

Or it could end a bit sooner, if Hillary decides to concede before her last two likely primary defeats on June 3. But I don't expect that.

Today's Obamagic Number is 48.5

Low and Lower (with Update)

Hillary Clinton's campaign continues to set new lows in continuing to be the most pernicious, vile and monstrous lying bunch of morally depraved politicians that the Democratic party has seen in a long time. They may even be going beyond the corruption routinely practiced by their new hero, Karl Rove.

In this past week, rabid Hillaryites were screaming to CNN that Obama had better offer the vp to Clinton or they will scorch the party, and the Clinton campaign blamed this talk on the Obama campaign.

Today the Clinton campaign accelerated its attempt to blame the Obama campaign for the shock, horror and disgusted reaction to her RFK remarks. Two of her chief idiots, the vampire Terry McAuliffe and the werewolf Howard Wolfson went on the Sunday talk shows to make these obscene charges, even though when asked, Barack Obama attempted to excuse Clinton's comments as misspeaking in a long campaign. Can you even imagine what the Clinton campaign would be doing and saying had Obama made anything approaching the stupidity (best interpretation, since her "historical" references were inaccurate in just about every way) and creepiness of Clinton's statement? There's some projection being played here, as well as indecent politics.

And even after all the horror expressed in the media--including the NY Times and Washington Post--Hillary Clinton herself got an oped placed in the New York Daily News defending her RFK remarks. Not apologizing for them, but defending them. There is no defense for them, on historical or any other grounds. RFK's assassination had nothing whatever to do with the fact that the 1968 nomination went beyond the first week of June. Nothing. In refusing to confront the inference that practically everyone has made, she continues to enact the kind of denial that we know so well from the current president. This country cannot afford another such individual anywhere near the White House.

Meanwhile, Obama picked up 3 add-on super-delegates. On Sunday he filled in for Ted Kennedy to give the commencement address at Wesleyan University. It was a call to service, a preview of his administration, a tribute to Ted Kennedy and a peek at his own youth, college days and first job. It's about twenty minutes and worth the time, and on YouTube right here.

Monday Update: 3 more super-dels today. The Obamagic Number is 49. In latest Montana poll, Obama is ahead by 17 points.