Heroes

 The Golden State Warriors we were waiting for showed up on Thursday night in a wire-to-wire 17 point victory to make this a 2-1 series going into the fourth game on Sunday, again on their home court.

Of the three Dubs designated as "questionable" before the game, only Gary Payton II didn't play.  Nevertheless the defense was good, which Coach Kerr attributed to the two key factors: rebounding and taking care of the ball.  Both prevented Sacramento from a lot of transition opportunities.

As predicted, Sabonis (designated questionable) did play and was roundly booed every time he touched the ball.  The Golden State fans played their part in this victory, but it was consistent play along with heroics that led to the win.  Nobody not named Curry had a good shooting night, but many had key buckets because they kept their heads up.  The main heroes of the game were Steph Curry for his magic play and leadership (his 6 threes from beyond 28 ft. set a long distance NBA playoff record) and especially Kevon Looney for his relentless rebounding (20) including key offensive rebounds, and his perfect 9 assists on 9 passes.  I remember how the Warriors stuck with Looney when he was injured at the beginning of his career.  He's become absolutely essential.

A secondary hero would be Moses Moody who in his first meaningful minutes of the series scored 13 points including some key 3s in the first half, and played inspired defense.  On Friday, several players spoke about Draymond's pep talk to them on Wednesday before the game.  These players gave it weight.  They respect his leadership.  On the court the inspirational leader was Curry, with his play and his communication and his overall affect.

Wiggins was consistent despite his shoulder soreness, but J. Poole had a bad shooting day on that ankle.  Still, he made some good decisions that led to points.  He is unlikely to have a breakout game until the ankle heals.  

While this was a game to be cherished, it won't mean a lot if the Warriors don't show up like this again on Sunday.  They must even the series and instill some doubt in their opponent.  Draymond will be back and likely Payton.  Let's hope the chemistry remains.  And you know who is about due for a big game? Klay Thompson.     

Suspense and Suspension

Wednesday update: Think it couldn't get worse for the Warriors on Thursday?  Three key players--Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II and J. Poole--are all listed as "questionable" for the game.  In the playoffs, "questionable" usually means they're playing hurt (or sick), but anything less than heroic performances by these three and the Dubs don't pull it off.  So it's now an even steeper mountain to climb.

Today's sentiment, reportedly within the Warriors team and organization, as well as among NBA players and media, is that Draymond's suspension is a major mistake by the NBA.  It may not turn out to be Green who loses his job because of this.

Tuesday post:

 Under Coach Kerr, the Golden State Warriors had never been down two games to none in any playoff series.  Under Coach Kerr, the Warriors have never lost a playoff series to a Western Conference opponent.  The first precedent has been broken in the current playoff series against the Sacramento Kings.  And with the suspension of Draymond Green for the next game, the second becomes more likely to be broken as well.

In the fourth quarter, when Sabonis held on to Green's foot, Green tramped down on Sabonis' chest.  Sabonis got a technical foul but Green got a flagrant 2 was ejected, and the Warriors lost. The NBA announced the suspension, with the deciding factor apparently being Green's record of "poor sportsmanship." Later the Kings announced that Sabonis had a chest contusion and was Questionable for the third game. 

The suspension decision is questionable on several grounds, including some nasty ones.  But as Draymond is so fond of saying, it is what it is.  So a couple of things are likely in game three at Golden State, in order of likelihood: first, Sabonis will play; second, the Warriors will win. 

If the Warriors don't win and lose the series, and perhaps even if they do win this game and lose the series, or even if they don't get to the finals, Draymond Green's time at Golden State might be just about up.  It doesn't take a tactical genius to figure out by now that if you provoke him even in the playoffs he will take the bait, and hurt his team.  Everyone remembers that they lost a key game and then the championship in a similar situation.  And at the time they were up 3 games to 1, not in a must-win game.  Draymond Green is a unique and a great player.  But if you add The Punch into the equation, this could be strike three.  

Truly this could be serious.  Because Draymond not only put his own job in jeopardy, but that of Bob Myers (needing a contract to continue) and ultimately Coach Kerr. This season Green seemed to play himself back into the good graces of management, and now this.

Even before the suspension was announced, media coverage turned as downbeat on the Warriors' prospects as it had previously been positive.  On their home court the young King team was unintimidated and proved resilient in crunch time, holding on for close victories in both games.  The Warriors did not get away with less than a complete game, let alone a sloppy second game.  It is the Warriors now that must play a nearly perfect game to win.

And they must continue to play at a higher level just to get out of this series.  As a series goes on, the more experienced team generally has the advantage.  But that might not be the case this time.  The Dubs have to play heroically, and/or their coaches have to find and exploit some weakness in the Kings that hasn't yet been apparent, either with game plans or lineup rotations.  And that's just to even the series at home.

It's not that the Kings have proven to be the better team.  It's just likely that the teams are more evenly matched that supposed.  It could become like the great Lakers-Kings series, which went seven games, and turned on one play in the fifth game.   

First Test

 It made me nervous--how positive the pundits were before the first round series started that Golden State would prevail, perhaps easily.  The Warriors themselves were said to be very confident.

One way to look at the Sacramento King's first game victory is that if they were to win any game it would be this one--their first one since (if I'm not mistaken) Shaq was playing against them.  The entire city seemed to be cheering them on.  Another way is to suggest that they needed to play almost a perfect game, and with a lot of luck (and a lot of calls going their way), to beat the Warriors, almost at full strength.  Wiggins was back but was gassed enough at the end to miss a wide open 3 that might have been the winning shot.  The Warriors did not lose from overconfidence. Maybe from fouling too much.

After the game, the Warriors still seemed confident.  Game 2 is not an absolute must win, but pretty close.  The game after a defeat is where you'd expect championship pedigree and playoff experience to show.   

But the game 1 winner usually has an outsized advantage.  The Kings now know they can in fact beat the defending champs in a playoff game.  What might have been bravado before the game is confidence after it.  Now it's up to the Dubs to prove that they aren't just a little short of playoff caliber this year.

All is Known

 About playoff seeding that is.  In terms of outcomes, Sunday went pretty much as expected--all the teams that needed to win did win, including the Warriors.  And did they.  With the most points in the first quarter in NBA history (55) on the way to a 157-101 pounding of  the JV version of Portland.  Klay Thompson needed five threes to reach 300 for the year, which he accomplished in that first quarter.  He ended with 6, and ended the regular season with the most 3 pointers in the league.  Only two other players (including Steph of course) have ever made 300 in a season.

So now we can catch our breaths for a week, until the Warriors face the Sacramento Kings in a first round series starting April 15.  Pundits of course will be fulminating the entire time, and several of those already on record predict the Warriors to go deep in the playoffs.  Steph Curry expressed his confidence that the Warriors can win the West.  

With a week to work Andrew Wiggins back into the flow, and time for some nagging injuries to heal, the Warriors have what it takes to win it--despite less than stellar play at times, they have momentum, they are (we hope) healthy, and so far they're lucky: because the Clippers were playing at the same time, the Clips had to win their game, even though they would have made the sixth seed if they hadn't.  As it is, the Clippers have to face Kevin Durant in the first round.  Sacramento is widely considered a weaker team, challenged on defense.  The question will be whether they face the playoff Warriors or the regular season Warriors.  This is where experience gets added to the Dubs' advantage.  

Another great plus of the Portland game was game experience for the bench. The Dubs bench played the entire fourth and handily outscored Portland, 39 to 28.  Moses Moody actually wound up the second highest scorer with 25.  Everybody played at least 10 minutes, everyone scored.  Throughout the game Gary Payton II had steals and disrupted the Portland offense.  He's already sharp--another good sign.   

The official NBA cutdown of the game usually includes the home team announcers, as this one did.  So the play by play was pretty surreal, as the home announcers tried to talk about the Portland team on the court but kept getting interrupted by Warrior 3 pointers and JK dunks.  I don't think the cut actually included every Warrior basket.  By the fourth quarter the announcers were ignoring the game entirely and chatting about what they are going to do on their long vacations until next season.   

However, it looked like a sizable part of the crowd stuck around.  As in Sacramento, there were lots of Dub fans.  How else to account for the fact that even though Portland was sitting its starters plus half the bench for the past several games, for this early afternoon game the place was sold out.  

Really Down to the Wire

A lot of the drama went out of the final games as more teams locked into playoff spots, like the Sacramento Kings.  So the Kings sat their stars and the Warriors romped--not a given this season so far but not a big test either.  It seems Mike Brown is saving his strategies for the playoffs, as right now the likeliest scenario is for the Dubs has them facing the Kings in the playoffs first round.

The good news for Golden State is that with a victory in Portland Sunday they will be in the playoffs.  The other teams (principally the Clippers) are playing either much weaker teams or teams with their spot set and resting players for the playoffs, so they are likely to win out.  Which means that if the Dubs win in Portland, they will be the sixth seed, without home court in any series. 

At this point it seems that Portland is doing everything legal to lose, in order to get the top draft pick.  So unless the Dubs self-destruct (which of course they have done more than once this year) they should win.   If the Warriors manage to lose, they will drop out of the playoffs entirely, and into a play-in.  If the Clippers manage to lose, the Warriors (with a victory in Portland) stay in fifth.

So shortly after your chocolate bunnies tumble out of your Easter basket, the season will be over and all will be known. 

Down to the Wire

Update Wednesday night:  The Clippers victory over the Lakers moves them into fifth place, with the Warriors in 6th (the Clippers like nearly everyone else own the tiebreaker.)  New Orleans victory puts them just a game behind the Warriors, along with the Lakers--both of them with the tiebreakers.  Now the Warriors are masters of their fate in the sense that by winning their final two games they'll be in the playoffs.  According to sportswriters there are scenarios in which the Dubs could lock this up with a victory in Sacramento and other key team losses.  

Whichever way, the victory at Sacramento is necessary, barring some crazy combination of certain other teams' losses in the final two games.  However, Sacramento is still playing for second seed, so tomorrow will be hard-fought.  

An additional source of difficulty for the Dubs may well be the King's new coach Mike Brown, who just last year was assistant coach for the Warriors.  He knows their sets, both offense and defense.  He knows how Kerr coaches.  Of course, some of this knowledge goes both ways, but it adds another dimension to this game.

Coach Kerr confirmed that Andrew Wiggins will not play in Sacramento (or in Portland.)  Klay Thompson's status is unknown and probably will be until game time. 

original post:

By coming back to defeat Oklahoma City, the shorthanded Warriors moved into fifth place, though that won't last through the night.  Unless there's a last minute injury or strain from their overtime win, I fully expect the Lakers to defeat the Clippers tonight, which (because of tiebreakers) would vault them into fifth place in the Western Conference, and send the Warriors down to sixth.  If the Clippers win, they go to fifth place.  This will make the Warriors visit to Sacramento the most consequential game of the regular season.  It seems unlikely they could avoid the play-in if they lose.  It will be a tough game, another big test.

Surprisingly, media sentiment today seems to be that the Warriors are poised for a serious run in the playoffs.  If they get to the finals, they would be the first team to do so that didn't have home court in a single previous playoff series.  

Coach Kerr is sounding confident, but then he has to, if they have any chance.  However, another story suggests the core players are concerned about the bench and their inconsistency.  They haven't cohered. I hope somebody remembers how well they played when Klay Thompson asserted leadership in the absence of Steph and Dray.   

End of the Road

Sooner or later, the road will end: the road of this once promising season for the Golden State Warriors, and the road of this championship-level team.  Sad to say, current signs point to it being sooner rather than later. 

There are still three games to go, and a playoff season ahead, but despite the imminent return of Andrew Wiggins, there may not be too many more games for this team as currently constituted.  Beyond this season, contracts and the new league agreement portend storm clouds ahead, especially if this season ends as badly as it looks like it could.

The Warriors have been saying for weeks that they understand the situation, that they know how to accelerate into playoff mode.  But they've made it hard to believe.  The Denver game may have been the final straw.  The Warriors once again got away with playing well for little more than a quarter to defeat San Antonio, but in Denver they faced a team without its dominant star, and lost.  Moreover they blew a 15 point lead in doing so.  This time there were blunt words.  Coach Kerr said they essentially stopped playing for most of the second half.  Steph Curry said bluntly that they could not expect to win a championship doing what they did in Denver.  

They may not even get the chance.  Though the bottom of the conference is still essentially tied, the Warriors could win out--which by this time seems unlikely--and still find themselves in the play-in.  That's partly because the Warriors have lost tiebreakers to just about everybody.  They have to win and pray others lose.  I don't think the Lakers will lose.  Right now they have the momentum to take the 6th seed or higher.

The problems multiply themselves.  Knowing how essential these games are, the Warriors are still not playing high quality basketball for an entire game.  They can't survive the playoffs that way.  The idea that they can just turn it on in the playoffs by this time may be a cruel fantasy.  Their confidence has to be waning while the confidence of their opponents grows.  Do they really believe they can do it?  For those of us outside, there's a lot of room for doubt, and the Denver game added to it.

Those with tickets to the last home game or can afford to buy a seat, as well as attendees at any later game in the play-in or the play-off, should savor the moment to celebrate this team.  Financially as well as whatever else is going on, it seems unlikely these players will assemble together again next year.  I hope I'm wrong.

This year began with high hopes, not only for the season but for the future.  The Warriors seemed to have a championship present with the pieces of a championship future.  Now it all may fall to pieces.

I hope they're still playing in June, and that the road ends with another banner, and impetus to retain this team next year.  But even in this flawed conference, I'm afraid that how they've played all year, lurching from crisis to crisis, with great individual achievements but only flashes of cohesiveness, is catching up with them in early April.

The Stretch

 The Golden State Warriors play five more games in the regular season, and the playoffs are still in doubt. In their first two home games of the current three game stand, they lost a very important game to Minnesota, and won a crucial game against New Orleans, both games affecting the standings in this preposterously tight Western Conference, from the four seed on down.  

In this stretch run, the Warriors will likely need to win most of the remaining games to make the playoffs outright.  How many they can lose and still avoid a play-in game is unknowable.  Which makes everything unknowable with this enigmatic team.  Normally you could pre-pencil in a W against San Antonio, with the second worst record in the conference, in Friday's home game.  But these Warriors have made too much of a habit of losing focus with lesser teams, and they are coming off two home games in which they played two, maybe 3 good quarters (which includes the amazing second half against New Orleans when they came from 17 back to win by double digits.)  

They then travel to Denver, which normally would be a tough game, except Denver may not play its stars with nothing at stake--except the chance to keep Golden State out of the playoffs, a major motivation.  So, yes, probably a tough game--about the toughest left.

Then immediately back home to play Oklahoma City, which is currently 2 games out of the playoffs--and could be closer by then.  Then back on the road to Sacramento, currently the 3 seed within striking distance of second seed.  Depending on how things go for them in the intervening games, they may have something to play for.  Then their final game at Portland, which may or may not mean something by then.  At this moment, with five games to go, it seems unlikely Portland will be playing for better position, and the seeding may be settled by then--though I wouldn't bet on it.

Though the Warriors don't play either of the LA teams again, what the Clippers and the Lakers do in the next five games may also play a big role in how the Dubs' season ends.  The Lakers seem ascendant, but the Clippers are almost as much of a puzzle as the Warriors.

Especially with individual brilliance, the Warriors have provided thrills as well as chills this year but stability has not been one of their virtues. Maybe we'll never know what happened this season--mental fatigue, distraction, internal tensions, complacency, whatever.  All I know is that coach Steve Kerr looks like he's aged 10 years since October. We keep hearing about the championship Warriors turning the corner, but even with that great half against New Orleans, I'm not convinced they have.  And they are running out of street. 

Looking Better

 Despite impressive home wins against Milwaukee and Phoenix, things looked really glum when the Golden State Warriors began their recent road trip by managing to lose to the Clippers despite Steph Curry's 50 points.  Curry scored another 31 in their next game, a loss in Atlanta, and Coach Steve Kerr praised their effort, and said he was basically happy with the way the Warriors were playing.  After their next game, a loss in Memphis, he said they'd played hard and well again, despite the loss.  Something good is coming for this team, he said, and soon. 

 They had two more road games.  They beat Houston, among the least consistent teams in the league, and Curry scored 30, but Kerr said ironically he liked their effort better in the games they lost.  Then they went to Dallas when both teams were jockeying for the sixth seed and the chance to play in the playoffs.  They won there, more decisively than the final score indicated.  Then they came home, faced one of the hottest team in the NBA with this year's likely MVP who scored 46 points--but with a fourth quarter barrage and their defensive effort throughout the game perhaps finally wearing out Joel Embid, they won.  

Good things came.  Keep them coming.

At this point the Warriors have a game and a half security in 6th place, and are only a half game out of fourth.  Dallas has faded but the Lakers are coming on, and those Warriors losses in LA could still loom large. But it is definitely looking better for the Warriors getting into the playoffs, and it's starting to look like they are getting ready.  

Next they have three games at home against Minnesota, New Orleans and San Antonio, which should be three wins, unless they lose concentration against weaker opponents as they've been prone to do.  Their last home opponent is OKC, a team that is still battling for playoff position.  They have three road games, none of them really easy, against Denver, Sacramento and Portland.  Assuming they can keep their 6th seed or improve it, they'll be tuning up against playoff teams Denver and Sacramento.

With Gary Payton II coming back soon, the combination of Poole and Vincenzo may help to make up for the missing Andrew Wiggins.  The sports commentators this past week have been agreeing with each other that the Warriors can't get far in the playoffs without Wiggins, since he was their second best player in last year's.  They aren't considering however that Klay Thompson, usually their second best player, has worked his way back this year.  While the team with the healthiest stars certainly has the advantage, most teams right now have at least one star ailing.  

The Warrior veterans know the score: that in the West this year, it's anybody's championship. They are probably eyeing the Grizzlies as their most difficult foe, but might have to figure how to beat Anthony Davis and the Lakers.  Then there are at least three very strong teams in the East, any of which might emerge.  But that's months away.  Right now every game means something. 

Not Looking Good

 After winning five straight at home, the Golden State Warriors lost three straight on the road, the last two by double digits.  The desperation to win on the road led Coach Kerr to try out a four guard lineup, which failed to generate enough offense to offset its defensive deficiencies.  Part of the reason he did this was perhaps that Jonathan Kuminga was suddenly unavailable due to a warmup injury.    

Now the Dubs come back home to face the Milwaukee Bucks, who bring the best winning percentage in the NBA and are hungry for another championship.  The Warriors will be without Kuminga and Anthony Lamb (because his allowed number of games is up until they sign him to the roster) as well as Andrew Wiggns and Gary Payton II.  Without JK and Lamb and with an overworked and hobbling Looney, the Warriors are nearly defenseless at the rim--except for Draymond, who might be taken away from other responsibilities.  This game will require major heroics.

Including this game, the Warriors have only seven games left at home. The next is with Phoenix (though Kevin Durant is injured.)  The next four are after a five game road trip, and the last one is against Oklahoma between a road game in Denver and road games at Sacramento and Portland.  This is not an easy schedule even in better times.

No one can predict where the Warriors will end up, given the big uncertainties of West teams.  As usual this time of year, every team's fate hinges on injuries (though teams have been winning without key players somehow) and momentum (some of which the Clippers have regained.)  But it's not looking good for Golden State.  It seems the best they can hope for is a low seed which eliminates home court throughout the playoffs.  This is not good news for one of the NBA's worst road teams.

This year is looking like it's fated.  Klay Thompson and Steph Curry are having career years, as is Draymond, and Jonathan Kuminga is emerging in a big way, there's no obvious bad player, and still the Warriors are not only losing but being humiliated.  Management decisions backfiring as they haven't before, injuries at crucial times, a starter's extended and indefinite absence, and who knows what else is going on with this team.  There have been too many resets, too many declarations that they know what's wrong and it's time to fix it, followed by too many badly played games with the same absence of fundamentals.  Is it really just a matter of concentration and effort?  A team that proves it is capable of superior defense and smart offense at home, looks incapable of consistency of either on the road--something weird about that, at least to someone who isn't playing the game.   But once again it's not over yet and there may be thrills ahead.

Stretch

 Downs and ups.  Ups and downs.  ("He bounces it he bounces it he bounces it.")

The All-Star break was the time to renew and regroup and focus, everyone connected with the Golden State Warriors said.  Then their first game back in Los Angeles they looked lost, and they did lose, to the Lakers, without LeBron.  Things looked grim.  Steph Curry was out for another week or so, Andrew Wiggins was out indefinitely due to an undisclosed family crisis, so the Dubs went into a crucial 5 game home stand without two of their starters, and their veteran reserves--Andre Iguodala and Gary Payton II--injured and unavailable. 

But the new lineup suddenly jelled, Klay Thompson became the transcendent force that Steph had been, and they won all five, moving up several notches in the standings, with not only the playoffs but home court in sight.  And then Curry and Iguodala returned!

And they lost to the LeBronless Lakers again, again in Los Angeles.  And lost Anthony Lamb, a key player in the streak, for this crucial road trip, before they return to face the top teams of the West and the East. (They are expected to sign him for the last roster spot, however.)

The good news, everyone said, was that Curry looked great in his first game back.  Curry always looks great in his first game back, and then has a less great game or two before he attains consistency.  There is the further question of whether the chemistry attained in the home stand can be revived--in other words, the Warriors can win without him, but can they win with him?  That seems a heretical question, or at least a dumb one.  But maybe reestablishing that chemistry isn't automatic.  Maybe a key to their streak was Kuminga, Poole and DiVincenzo starting and getting heavy minutes.

Statistically the bigger problem is that the Warriors have a top winning record at home, and a bottom scraping record on the road--and of their remaining games, only six are at home (including the division leaders Denver and the Bucks) and eleven on the road.  Is this in fact a bigger problem?  Only if the team psyches itself out.  A team with the Warriors' talent pool and game-specific coaching that has that chemistry and flow--that defends, rebounds, and doesn't foul, and on offense takes care of the ball and moves it to the best shot on offense, is going to win anywhere.   

Even at this stage in the season, the division is dynamic.  The Clippers are in trouble if they don't right their ship; on the other hand, Phoenix is likely to win a higher percentage of games with Kevin Durant.  So nobody knows what can happen.  The Warriors might even sneak into the playoffs with a .500 percentage from the end of their recent home stand.  But every win in the regular season eases their tasks in the playoffs, should they get there.  Maybe it won't matter, but I can't help feeling this latest and last loss to the Lakers is going to hurt.

Anyway, the home stand was fun at least, even if things get tense from here on out.

Dubs 2023: A New Season or Not Our Year?

 

The Golden State Warriors entered the All Star break with exactly as many losses as wins in the current 2022-3 season.  The question now is whether they have set the pattern for the rest of the year, or whether they come back from break with their season at 0-0.

Injuries to Steph Curry and now to their latest re-acquisition, Gary Payton, Jr., mean their team isn't whole for at least several weeks.  That the Warriors decided to go through with the trade once they knew that Payton's injury was covered up by Portland and he might miss a significant part of this season, suggests they've given up a little on this year.  They did not improve through trades, as did the Suns, Mavericks, Lakers and probably others in the West.  They might still score a free agent in the buyout market and improve that way.

In retrospect, the Warrior brass made a mistake in letting Payton go, and now that he's won the dunk contest in spectacular fashion, perhaps in letting Mac McClung go as well.  There may be questions ahead on why the team couldn't utilize James Wiseman's talents, as they become evident in Detroit.

But all that could be water under the bridge if the Dubs come out of the break as the team that the organization thought it had, the one with championship skills and championship DNA. If the angst and injuries of the season so far add up to lessons learned and skills mastered (and Steph always comes out with renewed energy after injury) then they will be forgotten. On the other hand, if Draymond and others are right, that their current mediocrity (a word that more than one sports writer has used recently) is partly psychological rather than due to lack of physical and mental skills (especially on defense), the repeated experience of getting beaten in the fourth quarter can be wounding and therefore a self-fulfilling prophesy, a pattern to be repeated.  Other teams now believe the Dubs can be beaten, even if they fall behind.  The question is, do the Dubs believe they can win?  

NBA and NFL Bay City Blues

  Traditionally, an NBA player who is on the trading block doesn't play the game before the deadline.  Gary Payton II not only played for Portland against the Golden State Warriors, he sank the foul shots that beat them.

Hours after the game however, Payton was on his way back to Golden State, to provide a defensive presence.  The Portland game suggests why: J. Poole scored 38, Klay scored 31, Andrew Wiggins scored 18 and two others also scored double digits, and they still lost.  

The Dubs sacrificed a potential future with James Wiseman (though really, who is to say he can't wind up back someday) for help today.  (Wiseman wasn't helping because he wasn't playing.)  Still, with this likely improvement in the roster, the rest of the late trades dramatically changed the landscape in the Western Conference, and not to the Warriors' benefit.

Up to this week, the West was up for grabs.  Even a team with a wobbly purchase on more wins and losses was (and in fact, is) only a winning streak away from contention.  The challenge was going to come from the East, especially if Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant were healthy and sane enough to play together for the Brooklyn Nets.

But the Nets traded away both Irving and Durant, and probably traded themselves out of contention this year.  Boston stayed pat and Milwaukee may have improved, so those two teams are still formidable. But now the West may no longer be the easier challenge.

Kyrie went to Dallas, where in theory he complements superstar Jocic.  They began bragging that suddenly they are the favorites.  That lasted not even a week, before Kevin Durant was traded to Phoenix, and the Suns, with none of their major pieces traded away, become the favorites.  Both become significant challenges to a Warriors team that has all that talent and pedigree, but isn't beating even the lesser teams in the conference, like Portland. 

There are a lot of caveats here.  Durant is expected back from injury after the All-Star break, but there are no guarantees yet on his bouncing back quickly, or the chemistry of the team.  Chemistry could be even more of a problem in Dallas over the long run, even this season.  But especially in the Phoenix case, that's this year.  In the long run it would be strange if they aren't a championship contender in the West.

Similarly, the buzz in Dubland is that Payton is what the doctor ordered, and he may be--not only for his defensive and offensive skills but for chemistry.  But he is not likely to be the total answer.  He isn't the defensive answer against everybody the Dubs will face--the rest of the team has to find a defensive presence.  The other problems the Warriors have, even though they know what they are and keep talking about them, have not consistently improved: turnovers, poor rebounding and too many fouls, and too many dumb fourth quarter plays.

The Warriors are a real mystery.  Individually their stars are having great years.  But as a team they aren't there.  If post-championship run fatigue were to be a factor, where would you expect to see it?  How about turnovers, poor rebounding, too many fouls, and lack of defense?  And lapses in concentration in the fourth quarter?

Certainly health has been a factor, but it was last year as well, and that team won more games, and didn't give away so many games.  The Warriors used to win a lot of games in the third quarter, when their smothering defense and high-octane offense not only ballooned the score, but demoralized opponents who had to drag themselves through the fourth quarter.  Not this year.  The Warriors have lost so many games in the fourth that every team believes it can win if it pours it on at the end of the game.   

Whether the challenge of playing these improved teams will awaken the Warriors to exceed their 2023 selves remains to be seen, but it will be the story of the remainder of this season.  With possibly more than this year at stake.

My Latest NFL Rant

I've said this before but it continues to be true: it's getting harder and harder for me to care about NFL football.  In fact, though I still follow it to some extent, and I'll watch the highlights of certain games, I certainly don't care about it as much as I used to.

The reason is the institutionalization of unnecessary brutality.  Not just the failure to adopt measures to really address the frequency and extent of concussions, but the emphasis in the league and in the media on the most brutal aspects of the game.  A textbook case for me was the Eagles and Niners game.

Niners quarterback Brock Purdy was seriously injured with a play that used to be illegal in the NFL--he was hit in the act of throwing.  His elbow injury may have been freakish, but he should not have been hit.  And why am I the only person I know of who is saying this?

Then his poor substitute gets brutally thrown to the ground and concussed.  It will take Purdy from six months to a year to recover, and nobody seems concerned about the other guy and what he may have to go through for the rest of his life.  This is how the Eagles won the game.  They eliminated the Niners only quarterbacks (and what NFL team goes into a championship game with only two quarterbacks?  Especially in this environment.)  And this is football?  This is a sport?  What's next--the right to bear arms on the field?  

Last Chance for These Dubs?

 There's no shortage of candidates for the Golden State Warriors most humiliating loss of the season so far, but the blown lead against a Kevin-less New Jersey Nets to make four home losses in a row is a pretty disquieting one.  Every time it seems this team has turned the corner toward consistency, it reverts.  It is a talented team top to bottom except for one problem: it isn't winning, especially games it really should win.

We're reminded that the Boston Celtics were 25-25 around this time last year, and went on to the Finals.  So hope is not lost, but it is getting harder to come by.  Coach Kerr has preached patience, until he changed the starting lineup in something close to desperation.  And that's not really working either.

In situations like this, the next step is to change the team by exchanging players.  That may yet happen this year, but if this season continues this way, it will certainly happen next year.  The baffling thing is that this team has a championship core that is generally playing at a high level, and the young bench players are all showing flashes and more than flashes of brilliance.  After all the Dubs pulled off an unexpected road win against Cleveland with only one regular starter.  This team should work.  So far it isn't.  A month or so ago some commentator uttered the doleful words, they aren't good enough.  And yesterday Coach Kerr repeated them.  Either this team responds immediately with a string of wins, or that message gets in their heads, if it isn't there already.

The sad thing is that changing personnel on this team is unlikely to make things better next year.  With Draymond Green believing he'll be gone in a year or two, the Dubs will be in rebuilding mode if that happens.  The effect of this current pattern of at best a .500 season is the sinking feeling that this core may well have had its final championship together last year.

It happens.  It happened to the dynastic San Francisco Giants in the middle of a season--they went from best in the first half to worst in the second (when especially they couldn't hold leads) and that was the end of championship contention for that team, though fans saw flashes of brilliance for years afterwards.  

There is still time for the Warriors to get right (Kuminga's monster game against Brooklyn is the most prominent of many good signs)--but not a lot of time. If this is primarily a psych thing, it may not happen in time. But if they make a run and get deep in the playoffs, we could see this team again at least for one more year--an exciting prospect, with a year's experience for the younger players plus the vets.  If they don't, who knows?  

Meanwhile San Francisco football fans hold their breaths until Christian McCaffrey and all the running backs get clean bills of health.  The Niners would have a hard time against Philly in the championship round without a full complement of runners to generate their ground game.  

An Interesting Season

 The Golden State Warriors lost some apparently key off-the-bench players from their championship team, and combined with maybe some mental fatigue or hangover from their long season, they've been a team in process of finding itself.  

In December they made progress in that process.  When the starters leave the floor, they no longer typically face climbing out of a hole dug by the bench players when they return.  Several things seem to have happened.  Coach Kerr started sending Draymond Green out with the rotation players, and that had immediate positive effect.  Donte DiVincenzo has emerged as a sparkplug on defense and rebounding, and a playmaker on offense.  But it's the sudden improvement of Jonathan Kuminga that is most startling, especially on defense.  Earlier in the season, observers wrote that he looked lost on the court, and questioned his energy.  By mid-December he's becoming a trusted player on both sides of the ball.  He still has those flashes of brilliance, but he's added consistency, and his effort is no longer in doubt.

But consistency is still elusive for the team as a whole.  The Warriors went from a home loss to one of the weakest teams in the league and an abysmal loss on the road by blowing a lead in the last few seconds to another weaker team, to soundly defeating the Boston Celtics, the team with the best record in the NBA.  

Now they head out for a grueling six game road trip, with a couple back to backs, against good and very good teams.   Mostly teams in the East, and the Eastern Division has been far better so far this season than the West.  When the Warriors return home for a Christmas game, a lot more will be known about where this team stands.

The second half of the season should be very interesting.  Both the Brooklyn Nets and the LA Lakers, who looked pretty bad for most of the season so far, are stringing wins together in December.  Other top teams besides the Warriors have lost to weaker opponents.  Even the San Antonio Spurs have put together some wins.  Sacramento has emerged as a challenger in the West, at least early on.  But I'm watching what the sleeping giants, the Nets and Lakers do.  The Warriors may only have to get into the playoffs to challenge for another championship.  But they're going to have to do some winning even to do that.  It could be their patience will pay off in the coming months.  

Warrior Woes: Fixable or Fateful?

 Coach Steve Kerr's postgame press comments after losses in the wobbly start to the season for the Golden State Warriors tended to be reassuring variations of  "we'll work this out" and "we'll figure this out."  After last night's loss at Phoenix, which wasted a highly efficient 50 points by Steph Curry, and which at least one commentator called the team's worst performance of the season," Kerr was succinct and direct. "Steph played well, nobody else did."  

It wasn't a cohesive team effort, he said, but more of a pick-up game.  Again, the Warriors were overrun on defense, committed too many fouls and didn't rebound.  Teams look forward to playing the Warriors now, he said.  

Much of what Kerr identified can be seen as products of effort and concentration.   Players, Kerr implied, seemed to have things on their mind other than playing winning basketball.  These things are fixable.  Playing in the playoffs from beginning to end is like playing an extra half season, but at a sustained high level.  The roller coaster year that led to a championship, the summer of release, the increased off-court commitments and opportunities, the readjustments to normal life (and/or to new contracts)--all may play a part, even though the starting five is the still the standout unit of the league. 

Also fixable are the growing pains of the younger players, though every young player is a gamble that might or might not pay off, this year or any other.  These growing pains have been what many have pointed to, including Kerr and others associated with the Warriors, as the chief reason for the second unit problems of giving away leads.  Kerr said several times that he's still looking for the right configurations of players, the right rotations.

But there is concern that the woes being revealed aren't fixable with the Warriors' current roster.  Analysts with much deeper knowledge of the technicalities of defense in particular suggest that the team failed to compensate for the skills lost when Gary Payton II and Otto Porter, Jr. departed after the championships season.  Not just their experience or specific skills, but their physical size and abilities.

Time will tell, but this element of doubt is now part of the mix.

Wobbly Warriors at Season's Start

 The Golden State Warriors are off to a terrible start.  They have yet to win a road game, and lost five straight, all to what seemed to be inferior teams.  Though clearly the season is just starting, they are digging themselves an ever deeper hole.  Teams bring their A game to every contest with the league champions, and now they can believe they can win those games.  The psychological advantage is shifting away from the Warriors.

This at a time when the Warriors are actually healthy.  Steph Curry, Draymond Green and  Andrew Wiggins have started the season playing at a high level.  After a slow start, Jordan Poole had several superior offensive performances.  In that fifth loss, in which the starters were rested, bench players Jonathan Kuminga and Anthony Lamb had strong games, along with Ty Jerome and Moses Moody.  James Wiseman has shown signs.  All of that is hopeful, and this was an unusual stretch in which the Warriors played two back to backs on the road, including three games in four days.

Now they're coming home, with an unforeseen mountain to climb.

Good Moves Dubs

Turns out the Golden State Warriors know what they're doing.  They let a number of last season's key supporting players go on to more prominent roles on other teams, but made judicious choices to replace them on the roster.  The Warriors opened the new season with a convincing win over the Lakers, with solid contributions by 10 or 11 players.  

The Warriors now have the luxury (for which they are paying alot in luxury tax) of an established core of mostly veteran stars, plus a host of very young players with enormous potential.  Some may falter, but others may very well be stars in the future, and a couple might come close to that this season.

Coach Steve Kerr, who as a player and coach has been part of several teams that won multiple championships, including back-to-backs, said that a championship team with dynastic potential often gets better the year after a championship (it gets much harder after that.)  This makes perfect sense, for the teams that won their championship with a solid lineup, and not (as some have) as the result more of luck, including key injuries to their opponents.  

Every team needs luck to win the championship, but everyone knew that last year's Warriors were contenders.  Now they are champs, starting the season with all their starters healthy.  They may well prove to be a better team this year than last.  The league is highly competitive, but Golden State in a number of ways has proven to be the gold standard of the NBA. 

Bad Moves Dubs?

 The victory parade and Dub lovefest was barely over when the parade of players leaving town began.  Some of the exits were understandable.  Tuscano-Anderson was unlikely to get much playing time with Golden State, but he might elsewhere.  Otto Porter, Jr. has a limited time to get his payday--he seemed like a rental, though he became a valued teammate.  But Gary Payton II really hurt, as did the way it happened. Golden State wouldn't match Portland's higher offer, which wasn't really much higher.  Given everything else, it was nickels and dimes.  Payton II was a valued teammate, beloved by fans and very motivated to be a Dub forever.  His absence may hurt where it really hurts: on defense...At least the Warriors made sure to keep Kevon Looney.  

But the big bad move the Warriors haven't yet made is to empty the future for Kevin Durant.  Since Durant announced he wanted to be traded, there apparently have been feelers and contacts, at least among the players.  The story so far is that the Warrior main cast would welcome him back.  I wonder.  What seems clearer is that the fans may not, especially if it means losing players they are attached to.  Sure, it's all a business and teams change every year.  But why would the Dubs trade away their future for what could be a few years of Durant before he gets restless again?  I would have scoffed at the idea that management would go for this.  At least before they let Payton II get away.  For me, I've seen this show before.  My enthusiasm for following the Warriors would definitely lessen.

Fans and the Finals: Boston's Win One, Lose the Series

 There's a good case to be made that the third game of this year's NBA finals was won by the Boston Celtic fans in Boston Garden.  If that's so, there's an equally good case that the fourth and deciding sixth game of the series were lost by the Boston Celtic fans.

Many years ago I became fascinated by the theory of a little-known academic named Peter Senge about a mysterious process that happens especially in group situations that he called "alignment."  This concept was later re-branded by others as "flow."  Now everyone knows (more or less) what flow is--a state of hyper-awareness, almost unconscious efficiency at speed, when everything works beautifully.  (Senge had better luck in branding when he came up with "The Fifth Discipline," that sold a lot of books etc.)  One of Senge's examples of alignment was what sometimes happened in a basketball game.  I was especially intrigued by the idea that it sometimes was felt by both teams.

Today the coaches and players talk often of the flow of the game, of being in rhythm, of playing with force, etc.  Momentum is recognized as a reality, and teams go through periods when they score in bunches (or runs) while the other team suddenly can't defend, or an efficient offense suddenly gets out of synch and seems to fall apart.

Also recognized is the role of the fans in the building.  There are a number of reasons that home games provide advantages to the home team, and the fans are often a big one.  Their enthusiasm inspires energy and effort.  The home team can ride on the waves they create, and interact with that enthusiasm, making it greater with great plays.  

What is less obvious, partly because until recently it has been much less prevalent, is the negative vibes--the virulence up to the edge of violence--of home fans against the away team.  How it can work, and then quickly backfire, was demonstrated in Boston.

Golden State fans are enthusiastic for their team, and as the fans in many other arenas, they may boo the other side but basically treat them respectfully.  It's an aspect of self-respect, and of the culture.  But Boston is one of those places with a different culture, and they took it up a notch in the first game of the finals to be played at Boston Garden: game 3.

With loud and repeated chants of "fuck you, Draymond," they set a new standard for viciousness and hate in what is supposed to be a sports contest, an aspect of entertainment.  That Boston has been known as a bastion for racism in several decades of the 20th century, made this even more portentous and ugly.

It seems doubtful to me that this encouraged the home town team very much.  But in this case it did rattle the visitors.  Everyone on the close-knit Warriors team was acutely aware of the presence of Draymond Green's child or children, his family, and the other children in the building.  Green's game fell apart.  The Warriors fell out of alignment.  Then Draymond heard Steph Curry scream in pain when a larger Celtic fell across his foot and ankle when they were on the floor grasping for a loose ball--exactly the same circumstance by which another Celtic injured Curry's foot during the regular season, causing him to miss several weeks of games.  At that point Draymond lost it entirely.  The Warriors lost the game, and were down 2-1 in the series.  They would be returning to this court after just one day off for the now-crucial fourth game.

In their interviews between games the Warriors players and coaches seemed calm.  Curry talked easily of his ten hours of sleep and his physical therapy on his foot.  When Curry tested that foot with  a three late in the first quarter, and nailed it, he cried out in triumph.  The emotions hidden from the cameras and microphones started to come out on the floor.  

Curry had a game that former teammate Kevin Durant called "iconic."  Curry scored 43 points in 41 minutes.  He had 7 threes, four assists and--incredibly--10 rebounds.  He dominated the scoring by causing defensive havoc in how he hit from everywhere.  But other Warriors also played an inspired game, especially in dominating the boards.  Andrew Wiggins had 17 points--and 16 rebounds.  Kevon Looney had 11, Draymond had 10.  Klay Thompson chipped in 18 points, hitting key buckets and playing some crucial defense in crunch time.   Jordan Poole led the bench that together added 25 points. 

Later Draymond said he was sure that part of Curry's obviously emotional game was in response to the ugly chants and behavior of the Boston fans the night before.  In retrospect, it seems that motivation was there for the entire team.

After a home victory in the fifth game, the Warriors were in the driver's seat.  They could afford to lose the sixth game in Boston and win it all before their own fans at home.  But that seems never to have been an option.  From Coach Kerr to the players, they wanted to win the sixth game not only because anything can happen in 7th games, but because it was in Boston.  They wanted to silence those fans.  And by the end of the first quarter they did.  Many of those rabid Celtic fans were on their way home before the game was nearly over.

The Warriors' response to those chants created an intensity by which they created their own flow.  The silence was as good as cheers.  It unleashed emotion that continued long after the game was over.  Golden State had figured out the Celtics team.  But they were playing to defeat the haters in the Celtics' stands.