D-Day is Thursday

Thursday is D Day, the so-called debate,that is being positioned as the last chance for John Kerry to convince voters he should be President.

Opinion poll results are driving news coverage which is setting very high expectations for what John Kerry has to do to "win" the debate on Thursday. Though there are no discernable standards by which one wins or loses, except the consensus of the conventional wisdom, which could change completely if contradicted by voting results of election day.

There's some noise from those who study these numbers that the polls are getting less reliable. Some talk that they are conveniently reflecting the results their corporate sponsors find to be in their interests. And since polls drive coverage which sets the conventional wisdom...they can wind up meaning something regardless of how right or wrong they are.

But when it all starts to feel like 2000 again, stomachs fall and eyes turn to the borders. What's different this time? Howard Dean says elections are won not by appealing to so-called swing voters but by energizing the base. The Kerry campaign seems to be adopting that philosophy, though the media seems to think it's more from necessity than choice. But it's clear that there is a strong anti-Bush sentiment that wasn't there in 2000. Kerry and Edwards are talking that talk.

Gore kept Clinton at arms length, and if he hadn't he'd probably be President. Kerry's not making that mistake either. Even from a hospital bed, Clinton can affect electoral votes.

So what does Kerry need to do on Thursday night? According to the media, the impossible. He has to come across as an appealing guy, and he has to beat up Bush. Hard to know what that would look like.

Our unsolicited advice is simple: stand still, look into the camera, be clear. Talk about goals for Iraq as well as means. Don't smile unless something is funny. You're the serious one, go with your strength. Don't take any crap, but don't lose your cool. Oh yeah, and relax.

Kerry probably can't play it too safe. His best chance to befuddle the media is to come up with something in advance that will throw Bush obviously off his game. His second best chance is to improvise it on the spot. He may need to do (that is, say) something unexpected to win the expectations game.


You may have noticed that the Bushies are quietly pulling back from doing anything controversial. They've dropped attempts to drill in the Montana wilderness, and to have hemp food banned as part of their war on drugs. (We're not kidding---they were about to take it to the Supremes.) They've gotten good reaction for moderating, and they need to, because even the polls that show Bush ahead also show that by a very wide margin people expect him to make big changes if he's reelected.

I wouldn't bet on that. This is just electioneering. The insanity will return and we promise you it will get worse. This was Weimar compared to the Reich to come.