October and Surprise

If it's not the great echo-chamber effect of the media---and we suspect this time it isn't---then John Kerry did himself a world of good by winning the first debate. Now the rest of October looks a whole lot better. Anticipation is high for the Edwards-Cheney debate. If the Bush performance was a wake-up call for Cheney, it might do him some good, but Cheney is Cheney. Kerry's performance has given John Edwards inspiration. Dems are likely licking their chops waiting for this one.

The usual trend is for audience to fall off for the second and third debate, but as one of the better informed political analysts pointed out, this didn't happen with the Bush-Clinton debates: the audiences kept growing, once they realized that Clinton was for real (although Ross Perot was the entertainment). He expects the same to happen this year. If so, Kerry could land the knockout punch in the next debate, which will include domestic issues. He doesn't have to total Bush so much as seal the deal with Ohio and PA, and get back in control in the other battleground states where he was leading up to last week or two. Then the final debate, on domestic issues, leaves Kerry talking about health care, jobs, education, science, etc. and Bush talking about tax cuts. Kerry still has to make convincing cases, but if he's even up by then, the issues favor him.

Kerry may have already won PA with the first debate. If he convinced enough suburban women, Dems as well as Reps, that he's presidential and prudent, strong and smart.

If Kerry does no worse than come out pretty even in the next two debates, he'll still be riding a tide of Dem enthusiasm, which should motivate the most crucial element of all---turnout on election day.

But what about the October surprise? A terrorist attack on US soil? Kerry is not so automatically damaged by this as might have been the case last week; it depends on his response. More problematic is the capture or killing of Osama bin Laden. Kerry put so much emphasis on getting bin Laden that this could be a scramble. But when asked about the possibility not long ago, Kerry had a ready answer, so this possibility is probably being planned for.

Should we mention that Kerry emphasized homeland security, which we said in July he should, and that he used our "fresh start" line? No, it would be immodest. And as everyone knows the way to get ahead in politics is to be modest.