Key to New Hampshire

It's just a few hours before the polls open in most of New Hampshire (some have already voted.) The final poll at this hour, taken by the American Research Group Sunday and Monday shows Obama with a 9 point lead (down from 11 points), and at 40% of the total, followed by Hillary and Edwards. McCain has a 7 point lead over Romney, with Huckabee, Guiliani and Ron Paul.

Weather is forecast to be clear and bright, so turnout is expected to be high. The one unknown at the moment is which party will get the most Independent voters (they can vote in either party's primary but not both.) The nightmare scenario for McCain is that the Obama boom attracts so many Independents that his natural constituency is depleted enough to give Romney a narrow victory. The nightmare scenario for Obama is that all the talk of his runaway victory persuades too many Independents that their votes aren't needed, so they can afford to give McCain some help in the GOPer primary. But if those early voters in Dixville Notch are any indication, Obama has nothing to worry about. Out of 17 voters--12 Independents, 3 Republicans and 2 Democrats--he got 7 votes. 3 0ther votes went to Democrats, but none to Hillary.

Right now to even meet expectations, Obama has to win pretty big, while McCain has to win. Hillary may have won back a few votes in the past two days, but she probably lost others. Reporters are detecting a Romney surge but several newspapers are reportedly trashing him in very strong terms. His saturation negative ads seem to have hurt him. If I were to bet on the outcome, I'd say Obama wins by more than 10 points, maybe a lot more. And that McCain squeaks out a win of just a few percentage points--but he also could go bigger. But to make some real money I'd bet on Libertarian Ron Paul to come in fourth, above Giuliani. To meet expectations now, Huckabee has to come in a strong third. Anything over 12% and he gets a bump.

Obama may even get write-in votes in the GOPer primary. And a suggestion of how big this phenomenon is--and maybe how deep--there's a poll in Iowa taken after their caucuses matching Democratic candidates against Republicans. Obama obliterates them all: the closest race is with McCain (Obama wins by 17 points) and the worst drubbing is of Giuliani--Obama wins by 40 points.