Taking the Temperature

Judging from the polls and what reporters are saying, Obama is still plenty hot in New Hampshire. Their speculation now centers on how big a victory he'll have there tomorrow. (If he wins by less than 10 points, will their narrative be a Hillary resurgence?) On the GOPer side, the reporters are feeling a movement back to Mitt Romney, partly because Obama is attracting Independents who might otherwise have voted in the GOPer primary for McCain.

And of course they're all looking past New Hampshire. It's not clear where McCain goes if he does win there. A couple of polls show Huckabee with a large lead in the South Carolina primary. If Romney reemergences as the best of a bad lot in New Hampshire, that could be the end for McCain. And if he then wins in Michigan, he has some momentum going into Florida and the February states. But if McCain wins bigger than he's polling at the moment (he did that last time) then GOPer voters may take another look at him. But he'd almost have to win Michigan as well, because it's hard to see where else he posts another victory.

Guiliani is off the radar this week, campaigning virtually alone in Florida, which is supposed to propell him into Tsunami Tuesday, which includes primaries in New York and New Jersey. That's his last chance. So the GOPer scenario is still wide open, with the distinct possibility that they won't have a clear front-runner even after February 5.

The polls also show Obama is developing a large lead in South Carolina, so while Hillary has to campaign there to hold on to her endorsements from black political leaders in the state, her real resurgence--if it is to happen--will be on Feb. 5 in those Tsunami Tuesday primaries. That's where the Clinton influence on the Democratic Party mechanisms will have to work. Meanwhile Edwards hangs around to step in as an alternative should either of the other candidates falter.

As for Obama, he's become a phenomenon. Chris Matthews attended one of his recent speeches and he said that it was the best political speech he'd ever heard. Joe Scarborough said that there hasn't been an inspirational candidate like Obama since June 6, 1968, which was the day Bobby Kennedy died from gunshot wounds he suffered immediately after his victory speech from the California primary.