New Hampshire Day

720PT--John Edwards is talking. The Edwards campaign lives in a world of its own, and every event is exactly the same, as if nothing around them was actually happening. It's arguably Edwards attacks on Hillary that energized women to defend her in the voting booth today, his focusing fire on her in the debate Saturday and especially his stupid comment that her tearing up was evidence she isn't tough enough. Meanwhile, he's at 17%, which is consistent with opinion polls, so this is definitely an Obama-Hillary race.

710pmPT--The difference for Hillary so far is the women's vote, which she lost in Iowa but which she's strongly winning in NH. My partner turned analyst said immediately that it was her tearing up, and the reaction to it in the media. I thought that would help her--it was unfair and sexist--but not to this extent. Still, the college town votes aren't in yet. A narrow victory for Obama is still a victory, but it will be interesting to see if the endorsements start coming in, especially the Nevada unions, as were expected when he was projected for a double digit win.

620pmPT--Surprising if not shocking so far: Hillary is holding onto a four point lead with some 36% of the votes counted. Exit polls indicate she's won on some issues, and some 14% didn't make up their mind who to vote for until today. But nobody expected her to win, including her own campaign, and her own husband. If she wins it will be major, and even if she leads on TV for the first few hours and comes in a close second, we'll hear "Comeback Kid" before the night is over.

If Obama's momentum is blunted a bit--though he is still likely to win the next two contests--the big question I have is whether his campaign's ground game was ready for prime time in New Hampshire. Hillary had the tested Kerry infrastructure getting out the vote today.

I'll also be curious to see the status of my theory of where the Independents went and why. Certainly John McCain's substantial and early victory suggests he got a lot of Independent votes.


A half hour or so before many of the voting places close-- though others are open an hour longer, some in urban areas--signs point to a big Obama victory. The final tracking poll from Reuters/Zogby has Obama by 13 points, voting turnout is reported to be very heavy, and exit polls are showing a lot of Independents voting in the Dem primary.

There's a little more mystery for GOPers. Though this same poll has McCain with a 9 point lead, reporters are saying the Romney campaign feels undecideds are swinging their way. If Romney falls short, he will be the first Massachusetts (former)governor or Senator to lose the New Hampshire primary. And one interesting finding from the exit polls has been released--showing major dissatisfaction among GOPers with the Bushite presidency. This could translate into bigger numbers for the only anti-war candidate on the GOPer ballot, Libertarian Ron Paul.