It's Only Thursday

The Clinton campaign is fighting furiously, but there are two questions: is this smoke and mirrors? And is it too late--has the train left the station?

On the first question, the Clinton campaign announced today that it raised $35 million in February, their highest one month total, and enough to be competitive in upcoming contests. But there is no breakdown on how much of this is pledged to the primary and how much to the general, and can't be used for upcoming primaries. [UPDATE: according to the Friday NY Times, the campaign says that $34 million is for the primaries. ]It was believed that the Clinton contributors had maxed out on the primaries, though her campaign says these were contributions that averaged at $100. It's impossible to know what that means. 90% of Obama's contributions are $50 or less, but the average is still slightly above $100, because that other 10% made large contributions.

Journalists seem to agree that Clinton is still being outspent for media in Ohio and Texas, however. The Obama campaign has just made a major ad buy for two minute slots on the Monday before the election.

Similarly, the Clinton campaign continues to release new TV commercials, as they did for Wisconsin, but this obscures just how much they're actually going to be on the air, which in Wisconsin was, not much. Plus, the support (on the ground and on the air) for Obama from the likes of unions and moveon.org is just starting to kick in. And the Obama campaign has yet to announce its February take, except to say it is "considerably more" than Clinton's.

The larger question is whether it is too late anyway. Obama himself has tried to limit expectations for Ohio and Texas, telling reporters that if he came out of March 4 with the same delegate lead he has now, he'd be satisfied. The polls in both big states continue to be close.

On the other hand...If Clinton has regained momentum, it hasn't translated into anything visible. All but one recent poll shows movement to Obama in Texas, and all do in Ohio. If Hillary changed anything with the debate and her recent campaigning it wouldn't show up yet.

What is visible is that super-delegates continue to abandon Hillary and move to Obama. Obama has netted 34 since Super Tuesday and Clinton has lost six. (Her lead is down to 254 to 203.) Obama continues to speak to huge audiences--by one estimate, a crowd of 25,000 in San Marcos, Texas. Early voting in Texas and Ohio are breaking records: Time Magazine joins local observers in suggesting it favors Obama in Texas, and CNN suggested in a report today it is favoring Obama in Ohio.

National surveys continue to see an Obama wave, most recently the respected Pew Research poll which shows Obama ahead of Clinton among Democrats, 49% to 40%, and ahead of McCain for the general election 50% to 43%.

Clinton has been mostly in Ohio this week, but tomorrow she goes to Texas and stays there until Tuesday. Does this indicate confidence about Ohio, worry about Texas? Obama campaigns in Texas Friday but leaves the big states for a bit to speak in Rhode Island Saturday, suggesting that Clinton's one "sure" March 4 state is up for grabs, or just that he intends to contest everywhere.

The truth at this point is that nobody knows anything, especially because of early voting, open primaries, etc. Will the overwhelming enthusiasm for Obama again translate into votes? Are Latinos in Texas and/or women and working class voters moving back to Clinton? Will voters endorse the conventional wisdom that Obama is going to be the nominee, or will they revolt? I'm seeing smoke and mirrors in the Clinton campaign, but I'm not yet ready to say the train has left the station. It's only Thursday, after all.

Update: both candidates will hold rallies in San Antonio Friday.