More Monday Numbers

Attention Super-delegates: The CBS/New York Times poll has Barack Obama ahead of Hillary nationally by 16 points among Democratic primary voters, and he's above the magic 50%: it's 54% to 38%. Hillary has lost her base of women--it's even between them.

The new Gallup poll shows a similar spread: 51% to 39%.

The Obama rally in Cincinatti drew 11,000. At that rally he got the endorsement of the city's mayor, which brings his mayoral endorsements in major Ohio cities to three, including Cleveland and Columbus. In Dayton, another 11,000. Clinton drew about 1500 in or near these cities recently. Ohio also has early voting, and these Obama rallies provide buses to the polls to vote immediately afterwards.

Al G. at the Field provides a preliminary analysis of how the Ohio delegate allocation breaks out. His general conclusions: Hillary needs to win the state with 60% to get even 20 more delegates than Obama. And "the weighting of delegates per district helps Obama more than Clinton."

Rhode Island is still considered Hillary's best shot for a win on March 4, but the support of Providence Mayor David Cicilline, previously announced for Hillary, is wavering.

And back to the numbers: a couple of sites have suggested that because of Obama's huge lead in Vermont polls, he could actually pick up more delegates from that state than from Texas or Ohio. So theoretically, and given today's polls numbers, Obama could simply stay close in the other states, and win the night in delegates by winning Vermont. But with the momentum in Texas and now Ohio, and more than a week to go, things are moving his way. Hillary's last chance to alter the perception is in tomorrow's debate, and it's only a slight chance.