Slowly...

Slowly maybe, but inexorably, the nomination of Barack Obama gets closer and closer. Super-delegates keep moving his way, political leaders hint that it's going to happen. Even Hillary seems to be slowing (and very tired.) (Though maybe not Bill.) And the money problem. Her campaign claims a $20 million March, though it's uncertain how much of that is for the primaries, but the Obama campaign claims $40 million.

Another sign of this: last week there was talk that if Clinton won PA and then Indiana on May 6, she would still be viable. More recently, the CW has returned to saying she has to win PA BIG (some say 10, some say 20 points) and that she has to win North Carolina on May 6, which is polling double-digit for Obama. That seems real unlikely.

For Clinton, there's not much left in the kitchen sink, and none of it has worked all that well anyway. Even the continuing noise over Bill Richardson's endorsement of Obama is not helping the Clintons--and based on Kid Oakland's report from CA, especially with Latinos. And it keeps giving Richardson a platform. The letter from big money Clinton supporters threatening Nancy Pelosi has led instead to a flood of contributions to the Democratic congressional campaign committee, as a muscular show of support for her.

So people are starting to look at Obama in a different way. And they're looking ahead. Here's a very interesting piece that hasn't gotten much attention, about how the Obama campaign is thinking about the general election campaign. On Thursday, Tim Russert was all over MSNBC with his maps and magic markers talking about which states are in play according to whether Obama or Clinton is the candidate. Catherine Cryer was the only voice I heard that challenged his basic assumptions--and this Politico piece suggests why that map may be obsolete: the Obama coalition.

I sympathize to some degree with people like Chris Matthews who see everything through the lenses of their youth. But they, and those who live by the cliches of yesteryear, may well be in for some surprises. And if they'll really take a look at their assumptions, those surprises may start to become evident in Pennsylvania. Specifically, in the heart of Pennsylvania.

But maybe I should wait until my central PA expert gets back from fishing to say much more.