PA, Delegates, Endgames

PA: I did a visual summary of the first few days of Obama's tour from western to central PA at Dreaming Up Daily. For those more verbally inclined, besides the links there, an account by a freelance reporter, and a Washington Post story that emphasizes the Obama-Casey double act. It begins: "One hopes that Ted Kennedy isn't the jealous type, because it looks as though Barack Obama has a new best friend: Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania."

Along the lines of my post on the subject, but even stronger on the ultimate effect of Casey's endorsement, there's this analysis on Real Clear Politics. The authors acknowledge that it doesn't mean Obama will now win PA, nor does Casey bring with him the ground organization Rendell supplies to Clinton, ..."But what Casey's endorsement might mean trumps mere political resources like organization and money. It might mean the ballgame-the quickened end of the Democratic primary battle and the ultimate nomination of Barack Obama."

Because (as I wrote the other day) Casey has strength among so-called Clinton voters in so-called Clinton areas of the state, he can help Obama cut down Clinton's popular vote margin. Casey's endorsement, they say, also helps liberate PA super-delegates who are leaning Obama's way. Their conclusion: "The take away point here is that the Casey endorsement may be a game-ender, a final speed bump for Clinton that blocks any remaining viable path to the nomination. She needs to win Pennsylvania big, and Casey's presence in the race makes it hard for her to do that. Clinton probably still wins the state-but not by enough to allow her to continue the race past Pennsylvania."

Apart for today's prize for the most cliches in a sentence, that summary is pretty devastating.

The not-quite-final figures for new registrations in PA came out today, and they show big numbers on the final day of registration: at least 33,281 new Democratic registrations and 45,977 party changes to the Democratic Party, with possibly more to come in via slow mail. Both Obama and Clinton campaigns were signing up new voters, so it isn't necessarily a big gain for Obama--but it might be. It's certainly a boon for Democrats, who now have the most registered voters for a single party anyone there remembers--about a million more than Republicans.

On the delegate front, Obama got the endorsement of super-delegate and U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, as expected on Monday. While the final delegate count from Texas is less than certain, the AP projects that Obama picked up 7 of the 9 outstanding delegates, to win the state by 5 delegates. Also, Mississippi recalculated their primary results, which resulting in Obama gaining one delegate and Clinton losing one.

Not bad for a day when there are no contests, but some believe the super-delegate flow is just beginning. Picking up where the W.S. Journal and other outlets left off yesterday, Politico outlined how Democrats are likely to make Obama the winner by June, in Monday's most referenced piece on the cable gabfests. With nothing as formal as a meeting or a mini-convention, they say, super-delegates are heading towards putting Obama over the top. But the restlessness of party leaders has become unmistakable in recent days. So, too, has been the premise — sometimes unstated, sometimes explicit — that it is Clinton’s ambitions rather than Obama’s that would have to yield in the name of party unification. The most widely quoted sentences in the piece: Describing the mood in Washington, a top Democratic strategist who supports Clinton said: “There’s a little bit of a deathwatch going on. Instead of, ‘Who’s going to win?’ the chatter is, ‘How’s it going to unfold?’” The strategist added: “There is general panic among Democrats. The big question is: Does she walk to the door, or is she shown to the door?”

In this piece, and a similar one on ABC's The Note, practically every aggressive argument the Clintons advance--they'll fight to the convention, they'll take the Florida and Michigan delegate situation to the credentials committee--is working against them with super-delegates who don't want suicidal convention fights.

Super-delegates got more reason to be comfortable with the Obama choice in his fourth straight day of leading the Gallup tracking poll, and especially with this tidbit: asked which candidate has the best chance to win in November, 59% of Democrats surveyed by Gallup said Obama. Only 30% named Clinton.

However, there is some indication the Clintons may have some good news to tout. Although the stories of their deadbeat practices with small vendors was joined Monday by news that they hadn't paid their staff's medical insurance for months (though they claim it's paid up now), there is the possibility that they raised a competitive amount of money in March, perhaps more than the Obama campaign did. If so, that would be big news. I wouldn't bet on it, and the Obama campaign may be playing possum on this. But if Clinton did have a good month, the campaign will surely be bragging about it as soon as Tuesday.

A final note on the PA bus tour so far: a crowd of 4,000 in Allentown and of course the 22,000 at Penn State on a cold morning outdoors indicate that Obama is drawing well. But his informal stops are probably doing him even more good: people are getting to know him, and to see him interact with people. The media bobbleheads don't necessarily get it: I heard the "experts" on Hardball make fun of Obama's poor bowling score in Altoona (which I wrote about with photos at Dreaming Up Daily), and they counselled him to stay away from sports he doesn't excell in, as if "blue collar" people will judge him on his bowling ability. From the reporting done on scene, and from my own intuition and knowledge of western PA, I don't think they get it. Bowling these days is a family activity. Some people are serious, but some people are there for birthday parties, or dates, or just to have some fun. It sounded like with Obama there, everybody was having fun. That's (as the consultants say) my take away point.