Stuff That Won't Happen

1. Big Al. Starting with Joe Klein in Time and continuing Sunday on 60 Minutes and Monday on Keith, the latest speculation that Al Gore will be called upon to a) be the broker, or party elder, who will go to the candidates and get them to settle the nomination, or b) to be the candidate for President when the convention is deadlocked.

Neither of those things are going to happen. Gore is not going to be the Democratic candidate this year. Barack Obama is. Gore does not want to be the candidate who marches in at the last moment, without getting a single vote from actual voters. Plus, by now he's seen what getting back into electoral politics has done to Bill Clinton's reputation and his future ability to transcend political allegiances in his foundation work. Gore knows that his election would by no means be a sure thing. Plus, as much as I admire him, he does not have the natural touch that Obama has. Obama connects in ways Gore doesn't, not even now. Sure, if for some unforeseeable reason, the convention goes to its 20th ballot without a nominee, and everybody is crying out for another candidate to resolve it, then maybe. But it's a very remote possibility, and certainly not a free ticket to the presidency.

Gore is also unlikely to be the broker who goes to Hillary and tells her it's over. I don't think there's much love lost between them, and the Democrats are probably not so tone deaf as to send a man to tell Hillary she's done. If it comes to a moment like this, it will more likely be Nancy Pelosi--perhaps in the company of several other prominent Democratic women--who takes on this job.

2. Credentials fight: There are enough senior Democrats around who remember some fractious credentials fights at previous conventions, and so the party is going to settle outstanding problems before the convention, namely the seating of delegates from Florida and Michigan. Formulas are being developed right now in both states, and although neither campaign is ready to accept them, the next few contests will determine that one or both of them will.

If Obama does well in PA, wins North Carolina big and especially if he wins Indiana, his campaign will probably accept almost any formula, because his delegate and popular vote leads will be untouchable, no matter how many delegates Clinton gets out of the deal. (Although I did hear one lone voice say that party rules stipulate that seating these delegates cannot affect the outcome of the nomination. In other words, a 50-50 split is all that's permissible. ) If Obama accepts it and Clinton does not, it's likely that enough super-delegates will pledge to Obama to give him the nomination, which will mean that Hillary couldn't win a credentials fight either in the committee or on the convention floor.

This possibility, like the Gore scenario, becomes a live one only if Clinton overperforms spectacularly, and/or Obama underperforms disastrously in April and May. If that occurs, a lot of other stuff that's unlikely to happen also becomes possible.