Friday, May 09, 2008

...But the Shouting (UPDATED)

The headline of the day (next to the BBC's GREAT TITS COPE WELL WITH WARMING--it's about the birds, of course, coping with global warming--what did you think it meant? ) is this one from Politico: CLINTON WON'T QUIT; OBAMA DOESN'T CARE.

While Clinton is off getting heckled in West Virginia and playing shock jock with her overtly racist analyses, Obama is mobbed by members of Congress of both parties on the House floor. With every day that passes, the Clinton candidacy recedes. She won Indiana by less than 1%, which means that Rush Limbaugh was her margin of victory. Depending on how many provisional ballots were cast and are still to be counted (Indiana voters without ID have 30 days to prove their residency so their ballot gets counted), her 11,000 vote margin could even disappear.

Hillary's claim that Obama can't win white working class votes created a firestorm in the blogosphere. The "pattern" she referred to isn't even true--Obama increased his share of white working class votes in Indiana and North Carolina from Ohio and PA. While a pollster pulls up numbers to show Obama has proportions of support among white, blue collar and black voters similiar to what John Kerry got in 2004. But the racist tone of Clinton's comments at this stage are not going to win her any friends among super-delegates.

She has no path to the nomination within the rules, let alone the rules of decency. Today there is still talk about her wanting and even demanding the v.p. spot, but that too will soon fade. The Clintons are yesterday. If they hadn't run such a mean-spirited campaign--and especially if they weren't still at it--there might be cause for some sadness in that. But not from me. By the time she wins West Virginia Tuesday, Hillary will be lucky if a cable network other than Fox carries her victory speech.

Meanwhile, the trickle of super-delegates endorsing Obama continues, and threatens to turn into a flood. There will be several more Friday. He may well pass Clinton in the number of super-delegate pledges next week.

Obama has turned his attention to the general election, while still showing respect for the voters in the remaining states with contests by campaigning there. His next victory is likely to be on May 20 in Oregon, when he almost certainly will have obtained the majority of total pledged delegates available from all the primaries and caucuses. If not by then, then soon after, party leaders in Michigan and Florida will have made deals to have delegations seated at the Convention, even if Hillary doesn't approve.

Obama doesn't have to mollify the Clintons or figure out what he has to give them in order for Hillary to drop out. He needs only to show her voters and supporters respect by allowing her to continue until the contests are over--respect that in many cases they didn't show him. And if she doesn't concede by mid June, the super-delegates will move en masse to Obama.

The Democrats are in great position to win the presidency and gain greater majorities in Congress. They aren't going to let that be messed up. The longer the Clintons stay in, the more obvious it becomes to Democrats that they've picked the right candidate, not only to run for President, but to be President.

So on August 28, the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King, Jr.'s "I have a dream" speech, Barack Obama will accept the nomination of the Democratic Party for the presidency of the United States.

Friday update: I don't want to do a new post, especially so I can leave that photo up for the weekend. With something like 9 super-delegates today, Obama has either gone ahead of Clinton or is near to doing so, according to who is counting. The New York Times, among others, notes this, relating it to Clinton's more subdued tone on the stump in Oregon. (I wouldn't trust that when she goes back to West Virginia, though.) Among the several Dem notables who today said that Obama was the presumptive nominee, House whip James Clyburn put a name to what's going on when he said that Obama has reached "the tipping point." Ted Kennedy shot down the Hillary for vp buzz.

One more interesting headline and view: Joe Klein on the Clinton campaign's progress through the stages of grief entitled "Paging Elizabeth Kubler-Ross". Two fascinating tidbits: a SUSA poll that shows that California, which went to Clinton by 10 points, would today go to Obama by 6. Does she really want re-votes? I mentioned above that Clinton's margin in Indiana has shrunk--and it's now about 11,000 votes. But there's no word on what hasn't been counted: military, and especially provisional ballots by people who didn't have proper ID but can bring proof of residence within ten days and get their ballot counted. If you think that's a long-shot, some numbers geeks have discovered in the final Ohio numbers that Clinton's lead declined from about 10 points to 8.8 or 8.7%. Obama got 26,000 more votes than were counted on election night (and figured into exit poll percentages.)

The Obama campaign's 50 state voter registration drive begins Saturday. He's campaigning in Bend, OR before returning to Chicago. Hillary will be back in New York.

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