How Sweet It Is!

It was not only what happened but how it happened. North Carolina was declared instantly for Obama, and the votes kept piling up all evening and (for East Coasters and Midwesterners) well into the night, until he entirely made up Clinton's popular vote margin in PA and added about 25,000 more.

Indiana, which was expected to be anywhere from 10 or even 12% to 6% for Clinton, was not finally declared until after 1 am eastern. Hillary finally won, though her margin may well have been provided by mischief-making Republicans who will vote for McCain.

But for all those hours in between, it became clearer and clearer that the Democratic primary race is over. After trying to maintain a semblance of balance, the cable gabbers began speculating on how Hillary gets out of the race. Tim Russert of NBC said, "We know who the Democratic nominee will be," and Chuck Todd presented the numbers to back this up: with Obama's N.C. victory, there is no conceivable scenario in which Hillary ends up with more delegates and popular votes, not even counting Michigan and Florida.

Or as Senator Obama writes in his email to me: "As of Tuesday morning, we needed just 273 delegates to clinch the nomination. When the votes are fully counted Wednesday morning, we will have gained more than a third of them in a single day."

Rachel Madow was the one voice of "unreason"--that is, she maintained that Hillary has been "post-rational" for awhile, and she will try to continue. But Hillary cancelled her morning talk show appearances--and that's a major move. The New York Times reports the Clinton campaign is "essentially broke."

But let's dwell on the Obama victories (because coming so close in Indiana has to be counted as a victory.) As several TV babblers pointed out, Hillary had her best couple of weeks while Obama had his worst, and at the end of it, he wins by 15 points in the biggest remaining state--and one of the 10 biggest in the nation--and nearly steals Indiana. Demographically, says one analyst, In Indiana, Obama improved his support across several key demographics, despite a bruising month of attacks on his pastor, patriotism and populism. Compared to Ohio and Pennsylvania, he generally drew more votes from white women, Catholics, gun owners, households earning under $50,000 annually, voters prioritizing the economy, and voters without a college degree."

In his N.C. victory speech, Obama said that he has faith in the American people to see past the distractions. These victories confirmed the correctness of that faith in Democratic voters at least, because clearly voters did not swallow the Rev. Wright cable TV obsession and Hillary's phony gas tax holiday proposal.

I'd hoped Obama was going to turn the corner with these elections, I felt he was going to, and he did.

Obama is now so close to a majority of elected delegates that he is almost certain to cross that threshold on May 20, when Oregon votes. The scenario that might shape up is this: enough super-delegates will declare for Obama between now and then to allow Oregon to put him over the top entirely with a majority of all delegates. With the nomination in his pocket, the May 31 credentials committee hearing becomes a formality accepting some close to 50-50 solution for Michigan and Florida.

But even if something that dramatic doesn't happen, the trickle of super-delegates could begin to become a flood very soon. Whether or not Clinton stays in the race long enough to win West Virginia, the May 20 elections in Kentucky (which Clinton is heavily favored to win) and Oregon (which Obama is very likely to win) may bring the process to a complete resolution. Even if super-delegates hold off until after the last contests in early June, the groundwork for what is now clearly going to happen can be built now.

And so it is the night I'd hoped for. The future has a chance. Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee, one step closer to being President of the United States.